Cleveland and Detroit are locking up for a pair of early-season first-place duels this week. Even if swept (Max Scherzer shut them down in game one), the Tribe will remain atop the AL Central leaderboard. Riding a heavy-hitting lineup and a reconstituted rotation, first-year manager Terry Francona's squad is seeking to dispatch a couple of years of history when Cleveland burst out of the blocks and faded down the backstretch.
Meanwhile, a couple of hours east, the Pittsburgh Pirates are eight games over .500, a position they haven't occupied at season's end in a generation. They're employing the reverse formula -- superb relief pitching and a couple of good starters are carrying the rest of the team.
At the quarter pole, there's time to dream, but in these two beleaguered cities, there's also time to be skeptical. We've seen all this before; say, last year, with predictable and familiar results. The Indians, four games over .500 following the All-Star break, dropped 54 of their remaining 75 games and crashed to 65-91. The Bucs, two games above .500 with two weeks to play, lost 11 of their last 16 to finish 79-83, a 20th straight year losing more times than they won.
Wait 'til this year.
For one thing, both teams come by their records honestly. The Indians have out-slugged their opponents by 37 runs, not quite the hallmark of a 26-17 record, but indicative of quality. The Pirates have shut down enemy batters and while also out-performing their run differential, are giving up fewer runs than they score.
Moreover, both teams are paced by veteran youth and have spread the good play around. Pittsburgh's offensive roster is just six deep -- center fielder Andrew McCutchen, first baseman Gaby Sanchez, right fielder Jose Tabata, left fielder Starling Marte, first baseman/outfielder Garret Jones, and surprisingly, catcher Russell Martin -- but none of them is out of synch with career norms. If anyone else heats up, the bats could begin to contribute.
The starting pitching is strong and deep, led by A.J. Burnett's Yankee revenge and Astro exile Wandy Rodriguez. Francisco Liriano's two starts after recovering from a fractured left arm have been promising (two runs and 16 K in 11 innings) and could give the Pirates a one-two-three punch they've lacked since Doug Drabek-Randy Tomlin-Bob Walk in 1993, the last time they visited the post-season. (That team included a rookie named Tim Wakefield who knuckled his way to 8-1, 2.15.) Flame-throwing closer Jason Grilli (14+ K/9) anchors a relief corps with ERAs that look like digital code -- all ones and zeroes.
In other words, there's more upside than downside in the 2013 Pirates as long as they stay relatively healthy. Pittsburgh has played nine of 15 series against below .500 teams, but in the NL Central that's hard to avoid. they've yet to tussle with Miami, so there remain free wins on the schedule. Not only could they end the futility, they could kick off an era of contention.
Cleveland has remade itself in 2013 and so far the results portend more. The club signed Nick Swisher to a big deal, rescued Ryan Raburn from Detroit, took a flyer on Mark Reynolds and overpaid Michael Bourn. In one-fourth of a season, Bourn and Swisher are delivering as expected, Raburn has resurrected his career (OPS+ of 29 last year; 148 this year) and Reynolds is hitting .253. When Mark Reynolds hits .253, pitchers cry. At .253/.341/.548, the former Oriole hot cornerman has already bestowed upon his new employers all the value he created through the spring, summer and fall last season.
Add in young catcher Carlos Santana, one of the emerging stars in baseball, and slugging keystoner Jason Kipnis, and the result is the Majors' second most potent offense. Like the Pirates, there's not a lot of mean to regress to.
The warning signs are on the other side of the equation. After Cy Young contender Justin Masterson, the rotation is so porous that warmed-over remnants of Brett Myers and Scott Kazmir have made starts. The mercy rule is soon to take effect on the Kazmir experiment, but it's not clear who takes his place. Ubaldo Jimenez (5.31 ERA) and Trevor Bauer (15 BB in 16 innings) offer little solace. As with the Pirates, they're facing just their fifth .500+ team this week, but playing in the AL Central means KC, CHW and MIN pop up on the schedule regularly. (And they've yet to dip into the goodie bag that is the Astros.)
With a great skipper at the helm, the Indians have delivered more than the sum of their parts and can continue in that vein. If their goal, like the Pirates', is to step this side of mediocrity, they have a solid shot. Eighty-five wins is not an unreasonable goal. If visions of pennants dance in their heads they're going to need a couple of good arms, and soon.
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