Round Two of our foray into the off-season navel-gazing we're compelled to do unless we want to watch the Beef O'Brady Bowl showdown featuring East Cackalacky and Northern Midwest Rustbelt State Tech. Or read a book:
Question: What about Bronson Arroyo?
Which part of consistent, above-average workhorse don't baseball GMs like? Dude's hurled nine consecutive years of 32+ starts (he only made 29 starts and six relief appearances in his first full season) and piled up 27 wins against replacement for his employers. Sure he's 37, but he's twirled more than 404 innings the last two seasons with a nearly 4-1 strikeout-walk ratio and an above-average ERA in Cincinnati's Great American Homer Park.
What's more, the guy's fastball is a change-up, so it's not like his heater will cool with age and cost him effectiveness. Arroyo introduced batters to Uncle Charlie more than anyone else last year, and they responded by with a Mario Mendoza imitation. Arroyo will decline gradually; indeed, he's already begun, and it's been so gradual it's not even discernible yet. If Dan Haren can get a contract after disappointing more people in D.C. than Congress, how does Arroyo not warrant a nibble?
Other third starters are latching on at $8-$10 million per, so if the 6'4" northpaw is reconciled to two years of that he should find a willing partner before Spring Training.
Question: What are the Orioles doing?
They swapped their closer for a garden-variety second baseman, signed Oakland's closer (are there scarier words than that?) for $15 million over two years and then nixed the deal without explanation. They sent their redundant third baseman (perhaps you've heard of Manny Machado) packing for a hit-challenged outfielder and left themselves the fifth worst AL pitching staff stripped of 40% of their starters.
The Backyard Birds need to acquire some quality arms or they're going to drop from 2012 fluke to 2014 puke. The good news is that Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza all remain unclaimed, and the bidding has begun on Japanese sensation Masahiro Tanaka, who authored a 24-0 record with a 1.27 ERA and saved the only Nippon Baseball championship for Rakuten. Get out your checkbook, Peter Angelos.
Question: Is standing pat in Toronto's a strategy or a white flag?
You may remember that this time last year the Blue Jays were bulking up with R.A. Dickey and the cast-offs from Miami, a strategy that worked like a health insurance website. This year, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos upgraded the sinkhole at catcher and then seemingly took the winter off. As things stand now, the lineup north of the border will look eerily familiar. Will it perform just as badly?
There's a lot of reason to be skeptical about this team. The big thumpers thumped as expected -- 130 homers from five key starters. But Melky Cabrera struggled with health issues, maybe the lack of steroids pulsing through his veins chief among them. The keystone duo of Emilio Bonafacio and Macier Izturis hit literally half as well as a Major Leaguer. And the bench is thinner than Rob Ford's excuses.
The pitching is great, as long as you're not particular about having a #1 starter. Or a #2. Or much after Dickey and Mark Buehrle, who each took another step towards 40 in the off-season. The relief corps excelled, yet the team ERA rose to fourth worst in the league, and bullpens are notoriously fickle. Double-A, as the GM is known, needs to sneak back into the marketplace for an infielder, an outfielder and an arm, at the very least. Otherwise, the Jays could go down as an historically bad experiment.
Showing posts with label Bronson Arroyo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bronson Arroyo. Show all posts
28 December 2013
18 May 2013
Alburquerque in Toledo . . .and Other Tales
Alburquerque Now In Toledo
After uncorking 13 walks and six wild pitches in 14 innings, Tiger reliever Al Albuquerque has been optioned to the Triple-A club in central Ohio.
Can't wait for Houston Street to get traded to the Astros.
Brandon Phillips Leads League in RBI
After 40 games, Brandon Phillips leads the NL in RBIs with 36. Has he got some RBI magic or is he swimming in opportunities?
Yes.
Overall, Phillips is hitting just .286 with seven home runs. But he's delivering at a .450 clip with runners in scoring position.
Which is often. Phillips hits fourth in the Reds' lineup behind Shin-soo Choo (.452 OBP) and Joey Votto (.462 OBP).
Phillips is unlikely to renew his clutch-hitting subscription. But his opportunities club card is good for the entire season as long as Choo and Votto remain in the lineup. Barring injury, "Dat Dude" should tally his first 100-RBI season. And then he should take Choo and Votto out to dinner.
Ah, Choo
Speaking of Choo, he's lucky to be playing in this era. The 30-year-old right fielder is exactly the kind of heads-up five-tool player whose body of work was largely invisible in the pre-sabermetric days.
Since he began playing regularly for the Indians in 2008, Choo has averaged .293 with 18 homers and 73 RBI. But today we know that only scratches the surface.
Shin-soo Choo is an on-base machine who has lots of gap power. His .293/.389/.477 performance with an average of 17 steals at a 77% success rate makes him worth 34% more than the average hitter over that five-plus years. He's been worth 23 wins against replacement with the bat during that time, about four-and-a-half per year. That's perennial all-star territory.
By way of comparison, Ryan Howard's best five consecutive years with the stick were worth 18.3 wins, despite pounding 229 homers and bringing home 680 runs. Not to pick on Howard: Joe Carter's best six years added the same number of wins as Howard's five. His 180 homers, 652 RBI and 142 SB belied a .311 OBP. Carter got Hall of Fame votes.
Ten years ago, players like Shin-soo Choo were dismissed as complimentary parts and denied credit for the RBIs accumulated by the batters behind them. Today, we recognize all of Choo's attributes and more fully appreciate him. And when the baseball writers catch up to the rest of us, they'll finally elect Tim Raines to the Hall of Fame.
Bud No Weiser
During baseball games, Budweiser is proudly advertising their new "bowtie" shaped can. They are officially out of ideas.
All Or Nothing In Cincinnati Lineup
Cincinnati has struggled to score runs on occasion this year despite Votto, Choo, Phillips and Jay Bruce. If you're wondering why, here's the rest of the lineup and their OPS (an average starter has about a .750 OPS):
Todd Frazier, .693
Zack Cozrt, .573
Devin Mesoraco, .660
Xavier Paul, .792
And the first two guys off the bench, Chris Heisey and Ryan Hannigan, have OPS in the 400s.
With the starting core and first rate pitching to start and finish games, the Reds are a playoff threat. Another bat could really help.
Fact of the Day
Fox Sports mentioned this on their national broadcast: In 14 years as a Major Leaguer, 10 as a fulltime starter, Bronson Arroyo has never missed a start.
A quintessentially average pitcher throughout his career, (lifetime 104 ERA+) Arroyo's durability and innings consumption have tremendous value to his team. At $11.5 million, his salary is right in the ballpark.
After uncorking 13 walks and six wild pitches in 14 innings, Tiger reliever Al Albuquerque has been optioned to the Triple-A club in central Ohio.
Can't wait for Houston Street to get traded to the Astros.
Brandon Phillips Leads League in RBI
After 40 games, Brandon Phillips leads the NL in RBIs with 36. Has he got some RBI magic or is he swimming in opportunities?
Yes.
Overall, Phillips is hitting just .286 with seven home runs. But he's delivering at a .450 clip with runners in scoring position.
Which is often. Phillips hits fourth in the Reds' lineup behind Shin-soo Choo (.452 OBP) and Joey Votto (.462 OBP).
Phillips is unlikely to renew his clutch-hitting subscription. But his opportunities club card is good for the entire season as long as Choo and Votto remain in the lineup. Barring injury, "Dat Dude" should tally his first 100-RBI season. And then he should take Choo and Votto out to dinner.
Ah, Choo
Speaking of Choo, he's lucky to be playing in this era. The 30-year-old right fielder is exactly the kind of heads-up five-tool player whose body of work was largely invisible in the pre-sabermetric days.
Since he began playing regularly for the Indians in 2008, Choo has averaged .293 with 18 homers and 73 RBI. But today we know that only scratches the surface.
Shin-soo Choo is an on-base machine who has lots of gap power. His .293/.389/.477 performance with an average of 17 steals at a 77% success rate makes him worth 34% more than the average hitter over that five-plus years. He's been worth 23 wins against replacement with the bat during that time, about four-and-a-half per year. That's perennial all-star territory.
By way of comparison, Ryan Howard's best five consecutive years with the stick were worth 18.3 wins, despite pounding 229 homers and bringing home 680 runs. Not to pick on Howard: Joe Carter's best six years added the same number of wins as Howard's five. His 180 homers, 652 RBI and 142 SB belied a .311 OBP. Carter got Hall of Fame votes.
Ten years ago, players like Shin-soo Choo were dismissed as complimentary parts and denied credit for the RBIs accumulated by the batters behind them. Today, we recognize all of Choo's attributes and more fully appreciate him. And when the baseball writers catch up to the rest of us, they'll finally elect Tim Raines to the Hall of Fame.
Bud No Weiser
During baseball games, Budweiser is proudly advertising their new "bowtie" shaped can. They are officially out of ideas.
All Or Nothing In Cincinnati Lineup
Cincinnati has struggled to score runs on occasion this year despite Votto, Choo, Phillips and Jay Bruce. If you're wondering why, here's the rest of the lineup and their OPS (an average starter has about a .750 OPS):
Todd Frazier, .693
Zack Cozrt, .573
Devin Mesoraco, .660
Xavier Paul, .792
And the first two guys off the bench, Chris Heisey and Ryan Hannigan, have OPS in the 400s.
With the starting core and first rate pitching to start and finish games, the Reds are a playoff threat. Another bat could really help.
Fact of the Day
Fox Sports mentioned this on their national broadcast: In 14 years as a Major Leaguer, 10 as a fulltime starter, Bronson Arroyo has never missed a start.
A quintessentially average pitcher throughout his career, (lifetime 104 ERA+) Arroyo's durability and innings consumption have tremendous value to his team. At $11.5 million, his salary is right in the ballpark.
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