Ever since Lou Piniella took the helm of the then-putrid Tampa Bay Then-Devil Rays, the baseball universe has become pretty savvy about the lack of impact a manager can have on his team. Despite unreasonable expectations of their 55-win franchise going into the 2003 season -- which is to say, any -- Sweet Lou guided his squads to 99, 91 and 95 losses before he stalked off to the golf course.
There is no managing wizardry that can transform a team starting Toby Hall, Damian Rolls and Al Martin (at DH!) into a contender. And now most baseball fans recognize that.
So excitement was muted, but still detectable, when Joe Maddon took the reins of the Cubs this year. Maddon is a perennial All-Star at his craft, both on the field and in the clubhouse, and he's bringing that deft touch to the North side, alongside a whip-smart front office of team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer.
That enthusiasm around Wrigley was vindicated this week when Maddon got his publicly stated wish to land a leadoff batter who first and foremost gets on base. The Cubs traded spare parts for outfielder Dexter Fowler and his .366 on base percentage.
There are still managers, say, Ned Yost and Dusty Baker, who aren't sold on this simple formula. They're still locked in on the 1937 model of leadoff hitter -- a powerless speed merchant regardless of his ability to get aboard. That's the guy they want getting the most at bats on the team. And 1937-mentality managers don't lobby their superiors for 2015 assets, the way Joe Maddon does.
Not only does Maddon know better, so do the people who hired him. When Hoyer reels in a legitimate fire-starter, he knows that Maddon has a plan to exploit that asset. Ironically, while Fowler is a road runner, he steals bases only occasionally and, generally, at an unproductive rate. His value is entirely in the 189 occasions last season he reached base safely for the batter following him, in 505 opportunities.
So for Dexter Fowler, and the dozens of other small advantages that Maddon appears to accumulate over a season, Cubs fans have the right to feel a little quiver. Their time is yet nigh, but it is coming.
Showing posts with label Jed Hoyer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jed Hoyer. Show all posts
23 January 2015
15 May 2013
The Cubs Win the Pennant! The Cubs Win the Pennant!
In three years, when the Cubs win the NL Central, we'll look back to a little-noticed signing back on Monday as the watershed event.
Continuing a trend that has been documented here before, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer locked up future star first baseman Anthony Rizzo for the next seven -- and possibly nine -- years. The $41 million contract provides Rizzo with a big raise over his 2013 salary of $498K, sidesteps four years of arbitration and buys out year one of free agency. It also allows the team to retain Rizzo's services in 2020 and 2021 for $14.5 million each year, a mere pittance by then if Rizzo is even a twinkle of his current potential.
In case you're wondering why the fuss, this is it: The 240-pound Floridian has been a hot prospect since Theo drafted him for the Red Sox, Hoyer traded for him when he worked for the Padres and then again when they joined forces in Chicago.
In his 125 Major League games with the Cubs, Rizzo has vindicated his supporters, hitting .282/.344/.482 and 24 homers -- about a 33 home run pace. The lefty has abused pitchers from both sides, home and away, and in the dog days. And he's just 23.
A decade ago, Rizzo might have elicited yawns. Shake a tree and a slugging first baseman falls out. Pujols, Teixeira, Thome, Helton, Delgado, Morneau, Konerko, Palmeiro and the list went on. Today though, first base is no longer the premium offensive position. After Votto, Gonzalez and Fielder it drops off precipitously to the likes of Ike Davis and Eric Hosmer.
So if he's such a stud, why sign away his future? For reasons we've documented before having to do with the marginal utility of money. Rizzo is now guaranteed $41 million even if he spontaneously combusts tomorrow. The millions he might be leaving on the table mean a lot less to him than the millions he is now guaranteed. Starting today, the Rizzo clan is set for life. Nix the deal and break his leg, and it could all go away. In effect, big league clubs are selling their young stars insurance, and keeping the premium for themselves. In addition, they avoid the psychic pain of arbitration battles.
It's another data point in a growing trend in MLB. Before the season, the D-backs inked Paul Goldschmidt to a similar contract. Allen Craig passed up arbitration and a year of free agency in his new deal with the Cardinals. The Brewers are already thrilled with their investment in catcher Jonathan Lucroy. He delivered 4.1 wins against replacement in their deal's first year (batting .320), recouping their $10 million guarantee, and then some, in the contract's first year.
With Rizzo and fellow 23-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro locked up through 2019, a boatload of money for free agents and a farm system stuffed fat with prospects, the Cubs' future is so bright they'll need sunblock. They're bottom feeders this year, but don't let that fool you. Epstein and Hoyer are building a solid club with creativity and cost-efficiency at Wrigley and they're going to win some pennants before the decade is out.
Continuing a trend that has been documented here before, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer locked up future star first baseman Anthony Rizzo for the next seven -- and possibly nine -- years. The $41 million contract provides Rizzo with a big raise over his 2013 salary of $498K, sidesteps four years of arbitration and buys out year one of free agency. It also allows the team to retain Rizzo's services in 2020 and 2021 for $14.5 million each year, a mere pittance by then if Rizzo is even a twinkle of his current potential.
In case you're wondering why the fuss, this is it: The 240-pound Floridian has been a hot prospect since Theo drafted him for the Red Sox, Hoyer traded for him when he worked for the Padres and then again when they joined forces in Chicago.
In his 125 Major League games with the Cubs, Rizzo has vindicated his supporters, hitting .282/.344/.482 and 24 homers -- about a 33 home run pace. The lefty has abused pitchers from both sides, home and away, and in the dog days. And he's just 23.
A decade ago, Rizzo might have elicited yawns. Shake a tree and a slugging first baseman falls out. Pujols, Teixeira, Thome, Helton, Delgado, Morneau, Konerko, Palmeiro and the list went on. Today though, first base is no longer the premium offensive position. After Votto, Gonzalez and Fielder it drops off precipitously to the likes of Ike Davis and Eric Hosmer.
So if he's such a stud, why sign away his future? For reasons we've documented before having to do with the marginal utility of money. Rizzo is now guaranteed $41 million even if he spontaneously combusts tomorrow. The millions he might be leaving on the table mean a lot less to him than the millions he is now guaranteed. Starting today, the Rizzo clan is set for life. Nix the deal and break his leg, and it could all go away. In effect, big league clubs are selling their young stars insurance, and keeping the premium for themselves. In addition, they avoid the psychic pain of arbitration battles.
It's another data point in a growing trend in MLB. Before the season, the D-backs inked Paul Goldschmidt to a similar contract. Allen Craig passed up arbitration and a year of free agency in his new deal with the Cardinals. The Brewers are already thrilled with their investment in catcher Jonathan Lucroy. He delivered 4.1 wins against replacement in their deal's first year (batting .320), recouping their $10 million guarantee, and then some, in the contract's first year.
With Rizzo and fellow 23-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro locked up through 2019, a boatload of money for free agents and a farm system stuffed fat with prospects, the Cubs' future is so bright they'll need sunblock. They're bottom feeders this year, but don't let that fool you. Epstein and Hoyer are building a solid club with creativity and cost-efficiency at Wrigley and they're going to win some pennants before the decade is out.
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