15 May 2013

The Cubs Win the Pennant! The Cubs Win the Pennant!

In three years, when the Cubs win the NL Central, we'll look back to a little-noticed signing back on Monday as the watershed event.

Continuing a trend that has been documented here before, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer locked up future star first baseman Anthony Rizzo for the next seven -- and possibly nine -- years. The $41 million contract provides Rizzo with a big raise over his 2013 salary of $498K, sidesteps four years of arbitration and buys out year one of free agency. It also allows the team to retain Rizzo's services in 2020 and 2021 for $14.5 million each year, a mere pittance by then if Rizzo is even a twinkle of his current potential.

In case you're wondering why the fuss, this is it: The 240-pound Floridian has been a hot prospect since Theo drafted him for the Red Sox, Hoyer traded for him when he worked for the Padres and then again when they joined forces in Chicago.

In his 125 Major League games with the Cubs, Rizzo has vindicated his supporters, hitting .282/.344/.482 and 24 homers -- about a 33 home run pace. The lefty has abused pitchers from both sides, home and away, and in the dog days. And he's just 23.

A decade ago, Rizzo might have elicited yawns. Shake a tree and a slugging first baseman falls out. Pujols, Teixeira, Thome, Helton, Delgado, Morneau, Konerko, Palmeiro and the list went on. Today though, first base is no longer the premium offensive position. After Votto, Gonzalez and Fielder it drops off precipitously to the likes of Ike Davis and Eric Hosmer. 

So if he's such a stud, why sign away his future? For reasons we've documented before having to do with the marginal utility of money. Rizzo is now guaranteed $41 million even if he spontaneously combusts tomorrow. The millions he might be leaving on the table mean a lot less to him than the millions he is now guaranteed. Starting today, the Rizzo clan is set for life. Nix the deal and break his leg, and it could all go away. In effect, big league clubs are selling their young stars insurance, and keeping the premium for themselves. In addition, they avoid the psychic pain of arbitration battles.

It's another data point in a growing trend in MLB. Before the season, the D-backs inked Paul Goldschmidt to a similar contract. Allen Craig passed up arbitration and a year of free agency in his new deal with the Cardinals. The Brewers are already thrilled with their investment in catcher Jonathan Lucroy. He delivered 4.1 wins against replacement in their deal's first year (batting .320), recouping their $10 million guarantee, and then some, in the contract's first year.

With Rizzo and fellow 23-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro locked up through 2019, a boatload of money for free agents and a farm system stuffed fat with prospects, the Cubs' future is so bright they'll need sunblock. They're bottom feeders this year, but don't let that fool you. Epstein and Hoyer are building a solid club with creativity and cost-efficiency at Wrigley and they're going to win some pennants before the decade is out.

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