"We are what our record says we are."
Depending on whether you put more stock in visually impaired rodent luck or outcomes-based analysis, Scott Kazmir is either experiencing the proverbial dead cat bounce or an historic comeback of the Mark Sanford variety.
Either way, the cranks who belittled his Spring Training revival can now lick the chicken ova off their mugs. Yum, yum.
Just to recap, the 15th pick in the 2002 draft (by the Mets), Kazmir electrified fans in Tampa by mowing down batters from '05-'09, pacing the junior circuit in K's in '07. But by age 25 in 2009, his K rate tanked as his fastball lost its bite . . . and then even its bark. Once sitting consistently mid-90s, it bottomed at 86 while flailing in the bigs and face-planting against 19-year-olds in an Independent League over the last three years.But a funny thing may have happened while Kaz rode the pines the last two calendar years. His tired arm or crooked mechanics or serotonin imbalance (or whatever) cleared itself up and he came to Indians camp as a non-roster invitee throwing bee-bees again. Based on three starts of dubious predictive value, Kazmir made the big club and got pressed into starting service. In early April, that appeared to speak volumes more about Cleveland's rotation than about Scott Kazmir's rejuvenation.
And then he strained a ribcage and began the season on the DL, bringing wry smiles to the faces of cynics such as H.L. Mencken and my own personal self. Nothing changed when he finally returned to the team, surrendering six runs in a three-inning inauguration against the Minor League Astros. Had he called it a career right there no one could have blamed him.
Even after fanning 11 in 11 innings over his next two starts -- a pair of two-run performances against bottom dwellers KC and Minnesota -- a healthy dose of doubt was in order. He'd been pitching on six days rest against lower-tier offenses and still sported a 6.28 ERA with four home runs against him in 14 frames.
And then this past week, on normal rest, Kazmir threw 103 pitches past, through and around the Oakland A's, whiffing 10 without walking anyone over six innings. It was his first no-walk effort in 36 months. It was his first double-digit strikeout game in 45 months. Other than one solo homer, Oakland couldn't touch his 96 mph fastball.
So now we've come to the dead cat bounce. Is this -- pardon the mixed fauna metaphors -- Scott Kazmir's swan song before the clock strikes midnight on his Major League career or has he re-gained the strength/mechanics/outlook to master the best hitters in the world?
A pitcher who inflates his fastball velocity by 10 mph is somewhere in the vicinity of unprecedented. On the other hand, mediocre results over 20 innings that consumed 387 pitches hardly bodes well. There are still serious questions about Kazmir's durability, both over a season and within games, even if he continues to short out radar guns.
"Trust by verify," say Russians, who are understandably reluctant to commit based on small sample sizes. We'll be watching Scott Kazmir and wishing him the best because that would be a great story. In the meantime, his record says he's a 4.86 ERA pitcher.
