News & Notes As the White Sox Slip Away

Baseball players are finding out what it feels like to be George Harrison this year. In a year with the first Triple Crown contender in 40 years, the most astonishing rookie season of all time and maybe the most breathtaking relief pitching performance ever, being simply great in 2012 is something of an anti-climax.

Pity poor Jim Johnson. The Oriole closer shut the door for the 50th time today in 53 attempts. Yawn. In that amazing Baltimore pen, he doesn't even stand out. There are five Baltimorons with 53+ appearances and sub-2.60 ERAs.

But even if Johnson were the best Oriole hurler, he couldn't carry Aroldis Chapman's glove. In 69 innings, Chapman has fanned 119 batters and allowed just 59 baserunners, en route to a 1.55 ERA.

Too bad for Chapman, he's doing that in 2012. That's the same year that Craig Kimbrel flung fastballs into history. Kimbrel has whiffed more than half the batters he has faced, by far the highest percentage of all time for a pitcher with 50+ innings.

And of the top 15 strikeout artists ever, Kimbrel has the lowest walk rate and by far the highest strand rate.In just 61 innings, Kimbrel been worth more than three wins to the Braves. 

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Nice job on the swan song, Ichiro. With his career ebbing to a desultory .260/.288/353, the future Hall of Famer had become a liability for an offensively-challenged Seattle team going nowhere. I wasn't alone in wondering what they Yankees thought they were gaining by trading for the 38-year-old whose on-base ability had evaporated.

Well, this is what they got: .330/.352/.469 with 15 of 18 steals and superb right field defense in 60+ games. Ichiro's continued genius will be a key element if the Yankees make a run at Halloween baseball. In your face, pundithead!

Whether that postpones Ichiro's expected retirement is another story. At 39, he will likely merit little more than defensive replacement/pinch runner duty . . . unless he can keep this up.

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When the Giants took Marco Scutaro off the Rockies' hands in July, they were picking up positional flexibility and some on-base ability. It was not exactly baseball's marquee trade deadline acquisition. What the Giants got was Rogers Hornsby. Scutaro has filled in at second and third, and ripped .361/.382/.469 in 58 games. 

The 36-year-old infielder is a free agent in 2013 and someone if the team that signs him has reasonable expectations, he could be an asset to them too. A guy who can play middle infield without making women and children scream or flatlining at the plate has real value.


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Remember Alex Rodriguez? Won the batting title at 20. Hit 40+ home runs eight out of 10 seasons from the shortstop position. Signed the biggest contract ever, until ever ended.

Yeah, well, that guy is over. ARod has hit .272 with 34 HR and 113 RBI this year . . . and last. Combined. Sure, he's been hurt, but that's part of the problem. The other Alex Rodriguez played 154+ games seven consecutive seasons.

If you need evidence that he's not doping, that's it. ARod is aging like a normal person. That why with 647 homers, the conundrum over his breaking the home run record (762) is going to be a moot point.

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Right here is where you read insight into the elevator ride the Pirates have taken down towards the basement. For the 20th consecutive year, the fair people of Pittsburgh have suffered with a below-average MLB team.

This paragraph is where you read the explanation for how an outfit that dominated its opponents, claimed first place and climbed 16 games above .500 after the All Star break got hit by a bus en route to a 17-38 record.

Reading on, you would understand what went wrong. It's all very Suessian: The hitting stopped hitting. The pitching stopped pitching. The relieving stopped relieving. The high-fiving became head-hanging.

There is a silver lining. Faced with a contender in 2012, management was under heavy mid-year pressure to trade future assets for high-priced veterans. The events that followed demonstrated that they correctly assessed their team when they declined. Kudos to team president Frank Coonelly and GM Neal Huntington for sticking with the plan.

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The playoff system is in need of another tweak. The team with the best record in the AL will play the Wild Card survivor, which will have a nearly identical record. The second best team gets the other division winner -- the Tigers -- a bumbling, one-dimensional squad with the seventh-best record in the league. How is that fair?

No wonder the Rangers are stumbling down the stretch. Why do they want to play Baltimore, Oakland or NY in the ALDS, when a little late season slide brings Detroit to town?

Teams ought to be seeded by record in recognition of the fact that a division winner might reach the playoffs as the tallest midget, while a Wild Card could dominate just a little less than its main rival.

Insurmountable Lead . . . Surmounted

Official award ballots have to be finalized on the last day of the regular season. I only get a vote in the tangled web of my mind, and perhaps in your heart, so I'm assembling them now.

Earlier this season, Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen had taken the trophies (if indeed there are trophies involved) and stashed them prematurely in their attics (if indeed they have attics.) Both had established nearly insurmountable leads on the field.

Then a funny thing happened. Miguel Cabrera made an historic run at the Triple Crown. Buster Posey squatted between his entire team's legs and carried the Giants to an easy division crown (if indeed there is a crown involved.) And McCutchen scuffled as the Pirates rediscovered gravity.

Trout's lock on the MVP has already been documented here. (That's not to say he will win it, especially if the Tigers make the playoffs and the Angels don't. Sportswriters still stuck in the Cretaceous Period continue to limit their options to the fortunate few who have the best teammates. It's just to say that he has earned it, with all due respect to Cabrera, the best hitter in the AL and maybe the game.)

Just to add one more log to the raging inferno of awe over Mike Trout's rookie season: with respect to wins above replacement per 100 games played -- remember that Trout wasn't called up until May -- the top 10 seasons of all time have been posted by Babe Ruth (four times), Barry Bonds (twice), Rogers Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, George Brett and now the Angels' center fielder. Trout's 2012 ranks ahead of all but Ruth's 1923 season. This was Ruth's listing in Baseball Reference for that year:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB

1923

28

NYY

AL

152

697

522

151

205

45

13

41

131

17

21

170

93

.393

.545

.764

1.309

239

399

Dude had a 1.309 OPS, more than double the league average, with 399 total bases. He got on base nearly 55% of the time and scored 151 runs. Trout is second to that. And he can't legally drink yet. (This was never an issue for The Babe.)

But this is a post about the NL MVP, which many believe is back in play because McCutchen hasn't prevented the Bucs from tanking. They point out that he hit just .252/.347/.346 in August, when the team lost its bearings and lost17 of 28 games for the month. But Pittsburgh has collapsed to 6-20 in September despite McCutchen's .260/.372/.510 bounce back. (He just hit a walk-off home run for the win as I write this.) Nonetheless, there is no doubt that the peloton has reeled him in.

Let's compare him to his three primary competitors for MVP:

McCutchen    .330/.403/.557    55.6 runs offensive value   very good glove/premium position
Buster Posey  .334/.407/.544    65.9 runs value   good glove/78% of games at plus-plus position
Yadier Molina .320/.378/.512    53.4 runs value    great glove/plus-plus position
Ryan Braun    .319/.391/.602    53.9 runs value    weak glove/non-premium position

Clearly the field has narrowed. I see a discernible difference between the top two -- McCutchen & Posey -- and the bottom two -- Molina and Braun. Posey's bat is McCutchen's equal under more difficult conditions. Moreover, returning from a catastrophic 2011 injury, he may have needed time to round into form. He's hit .384/.456/.641 in the second half while playing mostly behind the plate. His added punch has offset the damaging loss of Melky Cabrera to the Giants just when the NL West division battle was heating up.

The MVP crystal ball, once crystal clear, has fogged. I'd cast my ballot for Posey unless something stunning happens in the last six games. Does that take Scott Cousins off the hook?

If Cy Young Were a NLer, Who Would He Be?

Earlier this week, Cliff Lee struck out 11 Atlanta batters and walked none. He limited the Braves to a single run. And he lost, dropping his record to 6-8.

Though Lee pitches his home games in God's Gift to Offense, his 3.18 ERA is 25% better than league average. In 198 innings, he's walked just 28 batters and whiffed 195. His 1.3 BB/9 and  7 K/BB both pace the league, the latter by a country mile.  

Cliff Lee isn't a top five Cy Young candidate, so his absence from any ballots will be no crime. But if you're wondering what happened to Cliff Lee's unique mound magic, the answer is: nothing.

The real question in the NL Cy Young race is where Johnny Cueto, Kyle Lohse and R.A. Dickey found their mound magic. Along with Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez, they have to be considered the Cy frontrunners. Cueto, a .500 pitcher with a 4.00+ ERA in his first three seasons, has reduced the walks and homers to go 28-14, 2.55 in his last two seasons. The veteran Lohse had posted one exceptional season before (15-8, 3.78 in '08), but he's experienced the full sprinkling of pixie dust this year. In his 12th campaign, he's recorded the most wins (16), best winning percentage (.842), lowest ERA (2.77) most innings (205) lowest WHIP, fewest H/9, fewest BB/9, fewest HR/9 and best K/BB of his career. Pumpkin alert!

And Dickey, well, whoever kidnapped him and replaced him with this guy (19-6, 2.66; 209 K in 22 Innings) is the Mets' MVP.

Closers Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman only pitch 60 innings each, but have been so dominant that they deserve consideration too. More on all of this after the regular season ends. One last start could decide the winner.

And for added drama, the unique stylings of Kris Medlin win Best Supporting Actor. He's barely allowed a run a game and the Braves are undefeated in his 11 starts.

Can the Braves Win Without A Star?

Now that that Atlanta Braves have slain 2011's demons and clinched their Wild Card berth, it's fair to wonder who exactly is going to carry them through the playoffs.This team is a mile wide and a foot deep, which is a commendable formula for the regular season, but not for the fast twitch muscles of the playoffs. They boast a solid but unspectacular lineup lacking any serious threat and eight plausible starters but perhaps no ace.

On offense, they're the Atlanta Egalitarians. If you asked 100 Braves fans who was their MVP you'd get eight different answers. Jason Heyward is a five-tooler leading the team in home runs...with just 27. Martin Prado is a five-position Gumby leading the team in batting average. Michael Bourn's after burners and noteworthy CF chops combine with a .346 OBP for a stellar leadoff resume. Brian McCann (.297 OBP) has scuffled and Dan Uggla leads the league in walks to offset a .216 batting average. With rookie shortstop Andrelton Simmons, this is a shiny defensive corps. 

(Spell check is going out of its mind over five-tooler, Gumby, OBP, leadoff and Andrelton. Spell check must be a wussy golf fan.)

All well and good, but who's the guy you walk intentionally?

On the hill, they're a hot band without a frontman. Tim Hudson (16-6, 3.61) has cracked the 15-win mark for the eighth time in his outstanding career, but he's no Tim Lincecum Roy Halladay Clayton Kershaw. Craig Kimbrel (1.06 ERA, 107 K in 52 innings, 39 of 41 saves) makes Superman look like David Spade, but closers aren't aces. Kris Medlin, (9-1, 1.64) might be an ace, but he's only started 11 games, all Atlanta wins. He might be the only pitcher in baseball with a save, a hold, a complete game and a shutout.

Then there's Mr. Jones, already a big big star. In his curtain call season he continues to rake .300/.380/.470 despite knees entering their fifth decade. As long as he's upright he remains the  biggest threat to put this team on his back.

Maybe the manager, Fredi Gonzalez, is the MVP. Since Spring Training he has been banishing the ghosts of 2011, waving off questions about their collapse. He clearly learned some lessons, taking the foot off the pedal of Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, whom he wore to a nub by last season's final weeks. He also lightened Chipper's load to keep him healthy, and the result has been 105 games of All Star-level performance and more at bats and glove time for Martin Prado.

It's all moot if they lose their play-in game, but if they don't, it will be interesting to see whether the yin of good pitching, strong defense and a couple of hot bats overwhelms the yang of a no-star team.

Baseball & Business Podcast

I had the honor of joining business guru Joel Goobich on his Don't Get Stuck in Your Business podcast, focused on the lessons that baseball offers to small businesses. 

We talk about maximizing revenue, short-term versus long-term strategies and the Nats' decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg.

For small business solutions, visit Big Picture Advisors.

A Triple Crown of Nothingness

Now that Miguel Cabrera is making an assault on the Triple Crown, even savvy commentators are wondering if he could nonetheless whiff on the MVP. Good question: let's delve.

Ted Williams won the Triple Crown in '42 and '47, but finished second in the MVP balloting to Yankees Joe Gordon and Joe DiMaggio respectively in a pair of travesty votes. (Williams won the slash stats triple crown as well those years, with .356/.499/.648 and .342/.497/.667 marks. Guy could swing the wood. He would win the slash stat triple crown five times and lead the AL in OPS 10 times.)

More to the point, because batting average, home runs and RBIs don't measure the most important things, they lead us off the scent. Even with the benighted slash stats we have a fuzzy picture. Let's take a look:

Miguel Cabrera   .333 BA   40 HR   111 RBI   .396 OBA   .612 SLG
Mike Trout          .327 BA   27 HR   77 RBI    .396 OBA    .558 SLG

Even using slash stats, Cabrera looks like the same offensive force, but with more boom in his bat.

Now consider this:
Miguel Cabrera has hit into 28 double plays. Mike Trout, seven. 
Mike Trout has stolen 46 of 50 bases. Miguel Cabrera, four of five.

In other words, add to Cabrera's total four more total bases and 29 more outs. Credit Trout 46 more bases and 11 outs. Their new slash stats:

Cabrera   .378 OBP   .615 SLG
Trout       .389 OBP   .649 SLG

Now we see that Trout is a greater offensive force than Cabrera. Compare him to the lower hitting standard of a center fielder, and Trout's 7.8 offensive wins against replacement beats Cabrera's 7.0.

Of course, that's not the end of the story. Trout owns the critical middle pasture. Cabrera makes dogs growl and babies cry with his third base gyrations. I don't trust the defensive metrics, but I think we can conservatively call the difference "a chasm."

Miguel Cabrera could win the Triple Crown and not be the best hitter in the AL this year. He could be the best hitter in the AL this year and not be the best offensive performer. And he could be the best offensive performer this year without being the most valuable player. 

How about that, sports fans!

Tu Eres Un Idiota

"I feel bad, I’m leaving my team for something I didn’t intend to do. I have nothing against the gay community and honestly I’m sorry...It was just a joke and it wasn’t directed to anyone in particular."

"It's just something that's been said around amongst Latinos. It's not something that's meant to be offensive. For us, it didn't have the significance to the way it's being interpreted right now. It's a word used often within teams. ... I agree with the suspension and don't have any problem with it."

With that, Toronto shortstop Yunel Escobar apologized for writing "Tu Ere Maricon" in his eye black. This translates, ungrammatically, to "You Are A Faggot."

I believe Escobar, I really do. Athletes employ homophobic slurs as part of the standard locker room hazing ritual.

And that's exactly the problem.

Imagine if, instead, Escobar's eye black had said "You Are A Nigger." The insult would be apparent and undeniable. Think how sickening his explanation would sound.

Guys have to get out of the habit of joking around about being gay. It perpetuates the myth that there is something wrong with gay men and that gay men can't be athletes. It's certainly possible that one of Escobar's teammates is gay. He can't be feeling very good about all this.

(Possible delicious irony: Escobar is that very guy and, closeted as he is, was in no position to refuse the challenge to put the slur in his eye black. And now he's suspended.)

Bravo to MLB for its swift action and temperate response. A significantly longer punishment -- three game suspension -- would have engendered outcry and discussion. This way, the case is closed and the point is made, period.

A Ruckus Is Brewing Down the Stretch

As of the moment of this writing, the season has oozed within 20 games of its conclusion and a ruckus is brewing for all but two of the 10 playoff spots.

With 7/8ths of the season completed, teams continue to bounce around the standings like Mexican jumping beans. Six American League teams are crossing swords for four spots, with five of them standing within four games of each other. Two more contingents pursue their death struggle for the Central Division crown, separated by two games and 281 highway miles.

The division leads are less fluid in the National League, but three weeks from the end, five teams vie for the last Wild Card, with four games spanning from top to bottom. Two of those five had not just been left for dead, but have been decomposing all second half.

Among those that have already succumbed are two teams that were printing playoff tickets at season's commencement -- Miami and Boston. Among those still in the mix are perennial laughingstocks Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Annual also-rans Oakland have the second best record in the American League, ahead of the sovereign debt-sized payrolls of the Yankees, Angels and Red Sox.

The Central Division-pacing Chicago White Sox, seemingly destined for mid-pack irrelevance in the Spring, are a paradigm of baseball's inscrutable wiles. Four players have catapulted the team from below .500 last year to Tiger-tamers today. Behold:

Player                                         2011 OPS           2012 OPS         2011 HR       2012 HR
A.J. Pierzynski                           .728                     .850                  8                 26
Alex Rios                                    .613                     .834                 13                23
Adam Dunn                                .569                     .825                 11                38

Pitcher                                   2011 Innings      2012 Innings      2011 ERA      2012 ERA
Jake Peavey                               111                       192                 4.92             3.27

The race is on and it's going to be a blast. It's proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy.

Earth-Shattering Labor Day Insights

Braves shortstop Paul Janish flashes big league leather. We know this because he takes the field daily alongside Major League players even though he is not a Major League hitter. Janish is batting .197/.276/.248 with seven extra-base hits (no homers) in 174 plate appearances for Atlanta. That's a rough approximation of the rest of his five-year career.

By way of comparison, Tim Hudson is batting .222/.260/.276. Hudson is a pitcher. With Janish in the lineup -- which is every day -- 22% of Braves at bats are nearly automatic outs. That's crushing to an offense.

The Braves don't care. Janish anchors an infield that plays a 40-year-old at third base. Janish's glovework is so impressive that he's been worth two wins over a replacement player in his career despite an OPS barely half of the league average. But Janish shouldn't get too comfortable. Rookie Andrelton Simmons flashed leather and batted .296/.336/.452 in 33 games in June before fracturing his hand and he is scheduled for a September return.

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Yankee manager Joe Girardi has invoked the Patron Saint of September, Alex Rodriguez, to secure the East for the Bombers. ARod returns to the lineup today after missing all of August due to a broken left hand, during which time the Yankees scuffled and the Orioles and Rays made up ground.

Girardi is in for a disappointment. ARod batted .276/.357/.449 before the injury. His replacement, Eric Chavez, has hit .365/.403/.587 in his absence, and the gap widens when considering defense.

Girardi should ratchet down the pressure and ask ARod not to screw things up too badly during the stretch run.

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Imagine Penn State firing football coach Bill O'Brien for failing to win the Big Ten this year. Such scapegoating would be pretty transparent.

(Aside: is there a stupider name in sports than the Big Ten? Since they're not 10 and they'll never be 10 again, why don't they change the name to something less inappropriate and confusing? Ditto for the Big 12.)

Analogously, the Houston Astros dumped manager Brad Mills August 18. The team had lost two-thirds of its games and had just completed a 4-34 collapse. 

If the Astros wanted justice, they should have rehired former owner Drayton McLane and former GM Ed Wade just so they could kick their sorry butts out the door again. That pair is responsible for the baseball debacle that you see in Houston today. Their multi-year effort to sacrifice the long-term for short-term mediocrity has forced current management to jettison all their assets and completely rebuild.


The result is a Minor League team getting bullied by the big boys, exactly on cue. Expecting Brad Mills win with this club was like expecting Eddie Gaedel to double off the right field wall.

Current Astro management has otherwise been adept and patient as they reconstitute their franchise. It's hard to believe they fired Mills just because the team was losing, but the signs point that way. Owner Jim Crane said of the firing, "we knew we might slide back a little bit, but we didn't think it would be this bad." If Crane believes that, he is orbiting a planet hitherto unknown.

Mills was a remnant of the previous administration and may not have been bought into the plan. By all accounts he was knowledgeable and supportive of the players despite the demoralizing regularity of failure. Mills appeared to nurture the young guys (actually, they're all young guys on that team) and was focused on teaching them how to play like professionals.

There are myriad reasons unrelated to wins and losses to cut loose the manager. We'll probably never know exactly why Brad Mills wasn't the right man for the job, according to GM Jeff Luhnow. We have to give them the benefit of the doubt . . . but the doubt remains.

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The David Ortiz sweepstakes have officially begun. The Cookie Monster is munching on AL pitching again this year (.318/.415/.611), but he's a geriatric DH with a twangy hamstring who runs like a backhoe and weighs nearly as much. He makes $14.5 million and will be a free agent at season's end, which has already come in Boston. With the Red Sox's big contract purge, it's hard to see Ortiz returning.

So who needs a gloveless big bopper?  Get on line! Most American League teams with playoff designs in 2013 are in the mix. Only Detroit -- a team of DHs, the White Sox -- who can't move Adam Dunn anywhere, and the Angels -- owners of three slugging first basemen, can pass on Big Papi. The Yankees, Rays, Orioles, Rangers, A's, Blue Jays and any of the other franchises, if they're delusional, are imagining Ortiz in the middle of their lineups. Papi's agent will work to maximize contract length, but any team offering more than two years will pay dearly on the back end.

May the worst team win!

The As and Os? How?

With the early hints of autumn, we've reached the time of year when sports fans, not content to wallow in their silent cluelessness, broadcast it to the world in the form of NFL predictions. Predicting teams' records is an effort in such futility that almost none of the NFL savants who breathe pigskin air 25-hours-a-day could have predicted last year's Super Bowl champ even at the end of the 16-game schedule.

This brings to mind the current state of affairs in Major League Baseball's standings, in which a serially-inept Baltimore franchise and the skeletal remains of an Oakland squad lead the AL Wild Card race, five games ahead of the Angels, who added the MVP, their main rival's best pitcher and Albert Pujols prior to the start of play, and the 2010 Cy Young after the All-Star break. This situation was inconceivable in April.

In fact, it's inconceivable now. The Orioles are 14 games over .500 despite having been outscored by 44 runs. The ace of their staff is a gentleman named Jason Hammel, a 6'6" righty with a 42-51, 4.80 record in seven years of work. Their #2 starter is some other guy and some pitcher of no note is #3. Don't even ask about #s 4 and 5.

Led by two-thirds of a good outfield (Adam Jones and Nick Markakis), the O's struggle to get aboard (third worst OBP in the AL) in front of all the big bopping (161 HRs, fourth best), leaving them ninth of 14 AL teams in scoring. Typical is shortstop JJ Hardy, whose 17 homers are more than offset by a .277 OBP. That the Orioles are a wind machine is much of the problem; seven of the nine regulars have fanned more than 80 times already.

About the only real asset in Baltimore, besides the cathedral in which they play, is the bullpen. Their five primary relievers all sport ERAs below 3.00, notably closer Jim Johnson, who's clamped down 41 of 43 saves. Still, it doesn't add up. A shutdown pen that backs a mediocre rotation and an out-challenged batting order does not ordinarily a playoff team make.

Ditto for the A's, who get a D in hitting, a B in starting pitching and an A in bullpen. It's a mystery where in that vast dump they call The Coliseum is kept the smoke and mirrors. At the plate, they're worst in the league in strikeouts, second worst in OBP and third worst in runs scored, yet they lead the Wild Card race at 16 games over .500.  Their best hitter (outfielder Josh Reddick) is a Red Sox castoff with a .327 OBP. Their best starter, Brandon McCarthy, is a seven-year veteran with a lifetime achievement of 36-38, 4.01. Similar to Baltimore, they close the door with five relievers whose ERAs all hover below 2.80, but it doesn't add up.

Stack those two rosters against the Angels, who are bursting with stars, and it's a head-scratcher. Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo, Albert Pujols, Torii Hunter and Kendrys Morales provide more firepower than the As and Os combined. L.A. stands taller on the hill too, with an enviable rotation of CJ Wilson, Cy Young-candidate Jared Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana and now Zack Greinke. The relief corps is a drag, but not enough to prevent the team from barely sticking its head above .500.

Maybe you had the Oakland-Baltimore parlay. You're one in a million. Did you also have Washington and Cincinnati at one-two in the senior circuit? Me either. But I'm smart enough -- even with a blog -- to keep my pre-season guesses to myself.

Can Hurdle Turn the Pirate Ship Around?

All hail Clint Hurdle, skipper of the Pirate ship Unexpected, which has sailed to within site of Playoff Land with an under-powered engine. Whether this voyage is the result of adept captaining, a vigorous crew or a lusty wind at their back, no one actually knows, but Capt. Hurdle will get the credit because that's easy and convenient.

Ironically, only now that the ship has temporarily run aground will the skipper really demonstrate his leadership skills. With the expected catching up with the Unexpected, the crew might react in several ways: they might lose faith, they might jump ship, they might rally or they might keep on doing their best until a wave washes them back into deeper water.

Since pushing to the lead for the second NL Wild Card, the Bucs have lost their way, dropping six of seven and 13 of 19, and falling into a mash-up of teams chasing the Cardinals. The pitching, about middle of the pack all year thanks mostly to a valiant bullpen, has sputtered a bit the last month. The offense, also known as Andrew McCutcheon, is chugging fitfully along, more or less as it has all season. Though the performance isn't much different, the team is beginning to veer off course, outscored by 30 runs in 19 games.

Veteran clubs understand that the winds of a long baseball season blow variably over time, and know the difference between patience and complacency, urgency and panic. Young teams, like Pittsburgh's, rely more on the man steering the ship. Right now, the Pirates need one with a steady hand on the till, an unwavering gaze on the destination and a heavy foot on the accelerator. Let's see if that's what Clint Hurdle has and if he can wrest from the crew equal measures of patience and urgency. If he does, then we have evidence of great managing.

What We Know About Strasburg Is That You're An Idiot

Opinions, the saying goes, are like assholes: everyone has one. Consider the debate over whether global warming is yet another artifact of human arrogance. Throw a pebble in any direction and you will bruise someone spouting random facts supporting or opposing the theory.

It's an analog for a baseball discussion now raging. We'll ride that bull in a minute.

The pertinent question is not whether the voting masses are believers or deniers. The question is whether the people who study this for a living, people with actual knowledge of the data and, more importantly, its context, believe it. There seems (to me) to be a consensus among climate scientists worldwide that global warming exists, it's our fault and we ought to do something about it.

I have a friend who, having armed himself with a handful of readings and a pile of facts committed to memory, believes he knows otherwise. He argues that the data demonstrates that atmospheric carbon levels blabbidy blah blah blah. I tune him out because he's not a scientist and so really, what the hell does he know? He's found some interpretations that support his point of view and may or may not have any idea what they mean. Moreover, I have no way of judging their validity or evaluating their context.

He also claims that there is no consensus among scientists about global warming, that alarmists are organized and can collectively claim a consensus, while skeptics are legion but unconnected and therefore unable to put the lie to that claim. To this, I'm inclined to listen. The experts' opinions matter.

Which brings us to the novel pitcher handling system installed by the Washington Nationals. Concerned about the health of second-year phenom Stephen Strasburg in his return season from Tommy John surgery, GM Mike Rizzo has steadfastly intoned all year long that he would limit his hurler to 180 innings come what may. What's come is a World Series run at which, by Rizzo's determination, Strasburg will serve as spectator.

There is clearly a consensus with respect to this decision: derision. There appears to be near unanimity that Rizzo is a blithering moron who will cost Washington its first World Series since 1924. Radio hosts, former pitchers and ticket buyers are all loudly proclaiming the pending shutdown unmitigated folly.

The criticisms come in many hues. Let's take a summary view of the most prominent.

1. In 120 years of baseball, no one has ever done this before.

2. The Nats will shut down their best starter during the stretch and playoffs -- just when they need him most. They have the best record in baseball and might never have this chance again.

3. There's no evidence that a kid-gloves approach will avoid future injuries. (See: Joba.)

4. Innings limits are stupid. Walter Johnson didn't need an innings limit. Neither did Lefty Grove or Whitey Ford or Tom Seaver or Roger Clemens or Justin Verlander.

5. If they knew he'd have an innings maximum, the Nats should have employed some other strategy, like skipping every other start, limiting his innings in each start, resting him mid-season, or something else to allow him to pitch in the playoffs.

Although the 180-inning plateau seems arbitrary, there is method to Rizzo's madness. More to the point, there's expertise in the Washington front office that radio host, former pitcher and Joe Sixpack don't have. For example, Rizzo and his team know that:

1. Just because it's never been done before doesn't make it a bad idea. The iPhone had never been done before. Duh. (Besides, the Nats did exactly the same thing with Jordan ZImmermann in 2011 and he's been healthy and effective since.)

2. Washington has a long-term investment in their star and has built a team to win for the foreseeable future.

3. There is quite a stockpile of evidence that young pitchers, particularly those who've endured significant injuries like torn elbow ligaments, can be easily over-worked. It's likely that Nationals brass has done a lot more homework on the subject than radio host, former pitcher or you. (The research that is public knowledge suggests that pitch counts are more important than innings counts, and that their relationship to fatigue and injury is complex and not fully understood.)

4. Mark Fidrych could have used an innings limit. Having never tossed more than 171 innings in the minors, The Bird threw 24 complete games and 250 innings his rookie year until his arm fell off and his career crashed.  Blue Moon Odom, a star of the '68-'69 Oakland A's, could have used an innings limit. In his first full big league season at age 23 Odom added 130 frames to his workload, pitched two more good seasons and was washed up by age 28. The list of examples would make Billy Martin blush, except Martin wore out pitchers with impunity.

5. Many of these suggestions miss the point. What research exists suggests that the kind of rest described by critics would not have the desired effect. The Nats believe they need to allow Strasburg to throw a reasonable number of pitches each game -- say, no more than 100 per game and no more than 190 in two consecutive games -- until he meets his innings limit and then enter his off-season program. 

The point is, maybe the people who have millions of dollars and multiple World Series rings invested in Stephen Strasburg, the people whose careers depend on his success, the people who have been scouring the globe for the best information in his case, maybe they know something the rest of us don't know. Have a little humility and consider that before you join your drinking buddies in excoriating the Nationals.

Sinking Ship in Boston Dumps Its Treasure

Have you heard about the man who bangs his head against the wall because it feels so good when he stops? He's today's Boston Red Sox. 

The Sox and Dodgers are reportedly on the verge of a deal whose main asset to L.A. is the immediate acquisition of four expensive, talented veterans, and whose main asset to Boston is the immediate departure of them. 

(For the record, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto are reportedly headed to L.A. for some minor leaguers, a talented young pitcher with 61 innings of MLB experience and a first-base placeholder in James Loney.)

With the ship sinking, or perhaps sunk, weighed down in part by bloated contracts to under-performing veterans, the Sox appear to be scuttling the ballast and racing to shore, from which they can rebuild the team in the off-season. Beckett, whose salad days in Boston are over, is owed $31.5 million over the next two years. Crawford, who has yet to mix his greens in New England, has five years and $102 million left on his deal. Gonzalez brought his hitting shoes to the Saux and seems worth the $127 million over six years remaining. (None of these include what's left of this year's contract.) Punto doesn't belong on this list; he's a utility player who works for food.

In short, the Sox shed more than $50 million in salaries each of the next two seasons and the production of only one reliable asset. They will pay through the nose to replace A-Gon's production, but perhaps GM Ben Cherrington, having taken stock of his starting rotation, is punting 2013 as well.

The Dodgers, now the proud owners of pending free agent Shane Victorino and the flickering candle of Hanley Ramirez's attention span, have pushed all their chips to the center of the table in 2012. They appear willing to eat those insane contracts as the cost of transforming their lineup with Gonzalez. 

Somewhere in this sour goulash is the ongoing Fenway saga in which Gonzalez and Beckett are reported to be major ingredients. There's no way to determine how much this deal is seasoned with that consideration, but it appears at least to be relevant.

Crawford's ability to heal from TJ surgery and rebound, Beckett's rejuvenation in Chavez Ravine and the development of Rubby de la Rosa and the prospects could go a long way towards determining the value of this trade to each side. That is, unless the Dodgers end October in a dogpile, in which case all other considerations are moot.

Piercing Insights To Shock and Amaze

Momentary lasers of brilliance that couldn't wait to be disseminated to the world...

Big Donkey Still Kickin'

Adam Dunn wasn't nicknamed The Big Donkey to denote grace and beauty afield. Mostly the White Sox hide his glove and pencil in his name as DH. He's hitting .209 and following a record-setting strikeout trajectory with 172.

And he's worth nearly two wins compared to a replacement DH.

That's because Dunn leads the AL in home runs and walks too, giving him a respectable .342 OBP and an exemplary .494 SLG. By way of comparison, Reds sparkplug Brandon Phillips is batting 80 points higher but has posted an OBP 12 points lower.

Dunn is a quintessential Three True Outcomes (TTO) hitter: of his 512 plate appearances he's actually tested the opponent's defense just 214 times. The other 298 trips have comprised walks, strikeouts, HBP or balls hit out of the park. His infield teammate (when Sox manager Robin Ventura saddles his defense with Dunn at first), Gordon Beckham has made the defense work 333 times in just 445 plate appearances. Dunn's TTO score is 58.2%; Beckham's a more average 25.2%.

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Run-Run-Run-Runaway

If high drama is your cup of tea, the MVP race in each league is a steaming mug of strychnine. 

With a quarter of the season left, Miguel Cabrera, has a .990 OPS, 31 HR and 104 RBI, and has posted an offensive value in the five-win range. And he's a distant second in the MVP race. 

Angels phenom Mike Trout, with a 1.011 OPS and 39 steals in 42 attempts (zounds!) is worth nearly seven wins to his team -- and that's before you subtract Cabrera's third base butchery and add Trout's brilliance at the premium midfield position. 

Unless Trout tanks, Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Robinson Cano, Edwin Encarnacion, AJ Pierzynski and others will have to settle for an attaboy from their manager (and perhaps a World Series ring).

Likewise in the NL, where Melky Cabrera has turned into a pumpkin and Joey Votto's injury has removed him from contention. Pirate center fielder Andrew McCuthcen's 1.020 OPS and fielding genius has also lapped the field. Barring a McCutchen face plant down the stretch, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and David Wright will battle for silver (and probably no World Series appearances). 

Same for the Rookie of the Year award. Try a cuppa Joe.

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The Cat Says, Do It Now

Bobby Valentine could do something immediately to boost the Red Sox fortunes: Whisper the following to his disappointing left fielder, "Carl, have the surgery now."

Carl Crawford has played just 30 games this year due to a torn elbow ligament. He needs Tommy John surgery but a chivalrous streak has kept him from abandoning his troubled teammates and their late-season Wild Card run.

"What late season Wild Card run," you may have asked yourself, or your cat, who was minding her own important business, consisting largely of staring blankly into space or licking her private parts and swallowing the loose hair, for re-purposing later on the carpet. 

Exactly. 

Recovery from the TJ surgery will take six-to-nine months. (Recovery from the hairball will take several minutes and also involve labored breathing.) If Crawford hangs on for Boston's inevitable demise on Oct. 3, his healthy return for the 2013 campaign might be delayed into summer. Going under the knife next week virtually guarantees his availability at the start of the 2013 season, when the Red Sox won't be seven games in the hole.

With improved pitching that will result from the natural evolution of I haven't the foggiest idea, Boston plans to contend in 2013, and for that they need the contributions from Crawford that they paid for in the 2011 off-season. 

It's certainly possible that Fenway's brutal mound corps could catch fire pigs fly just as David Ortiz returns to a newly-rejuvenated lineup hell freezes over, leading New England's favorites out from the sub-.500 abyss chicken have teeth and past the five teams ahead of them for the Wild Card on a week with two Thursdays. That kind of miracle could occur, as this Boston contingent knows all too well, but if Crawford wants to play the odds, sticking around the rest of this season is like betting that fish will climb trees.

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He Can't Go Home Again

If Hanley Ramirez has a home in Miami, he might want to reconsider returning there following the season. After blasting the Marlins with his suck ray in 2011 and 2012, he's delivered .330/.392/.549 and good defense to the Dodgers, including four homers in a three game set against his old compadres. In just 23 games in L.A., Ramirez has been worth more to his team than in the previous 185 games in Florida.

Think they want to string him up in the Sunshine State?

Now if the Dodgers are smart, they'll flip Hanley's re-motivated self to another club while his value remains spiked and let his next sulk come at someone else's expense. That might ease the pain endured by the franchise from the re-signing of another Ramirez in 2009 to a disastrous two-year, $45 million deal after he temporarily re-discovered his inspiration with them in the 2008 season.

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The Devil's Good Side

While maintaining that expanded playoffs are the devil's workshop, I have to admit that the massive disadvantage bestowed in the new format upon Wild Card teams is shooting bolts of interest into the division races.

This year, it matters whether Chicago or Detroit wins the AL Central, or whether L.A. or San Francisco takes the NL West, even if the loser earns a post-season consolation prize. The loser's playoff fortunes will ride on a one-game, anything goes play-in game, followed by a division series in which they may have already burned their top starter.

The result: the consolation prize won't be worth anything to 50% of the teams that grab it, and even advancement into the playoffs will still entail a climb over the odds.

Expect two positive developments from the new post-season scenario:

1. Despite a doubling of Wild Card qualifiers, there will be a small decline in Wild Card teams making the World Series. 

2. The Wild Card game will be considered by baseball fandom to be a play-in, not a playoff, and teams that succumb in that  match will not be generally understood as having made the post-season.

When Models Look Extra Ugly

Democrats are predictably excoriating Paul Ryan these days for his "attack" on Medicare. His voucher plan for the government-sponsored health care insurance for the elderly (and the not-nearly elderly; you can join at 65) diminishes benefits going forward.

Democrats are comparing Ryan's plan to perfection, or to the current system. Neither, of course, is an apt comparison. Medicare is rushing headlong off the financial cliff without reform, and threatening to take the entire American economy with it. Relative to insolvency, which is the ultimate fate of the program under everyone else's plan (i.e., no plan at all), Ryan's proposal is a revelation.

A similar debate is shaking the Sabermetric community these days in the wake of a pair of disturbing arithmetic developments. But the conclusion is the same: the measure of a new idea isn't in comparison to perfection, but to the old paradigm.

First, some context. Ever since Voros McCracken unveiled the idea in 1999 that pitchers have limited control over what happens once their pitch is put into the field of play -- a conclusion now much more nuanced and qualified -- seamheads have been whipping up concoctions to strip luck and defense out of pitching results to determine how well pitchers are actually pitching.

One of the many formulae brewed by the stat wizards is FIP -- fielding independent pitching. Without excavating spreadsheets filled with higher math, it can be described this way: given the number of batters a pitcher has fanned, walked, hit with pitches and allowed to homer, how many runs should we expect to score against him given average defense and ballpark?

In July, Reds closer Aroldis Chapman broke FIP (in the words of CBS Sports). He faced 52 batters in 14 1/3 innings and whiffed 31 of them. He allowed just six hits, two walks, a HBP and nary a run, nailing down 13 saves. Batters posted a desultory .122/.173/.143 line against him.  In other words, Chapman was Superman for a 30-day period. (He's been no slouch under other moons.)

Putting those numbers through the meat grinder yielded a FIP for Chapman of -0.99. That is, Chapman could be expected, given his performance, to yield minus-one run per nine innings. Certifiably nuts.

Others have noted odd sightings in Baseball-Reference.com's WAR (Wins Against Replacement) calculations. WAR attempts to review all of a player's performance and all of the context and measure him against a Triple-A replacement at his position. In mid-August, Cubs keystoner Darwin Barney had a higher WAR than Brewers slugger Ryan Braun. Just for context, Barney is hitting .268/.309/.386, or about 12% below the MLB average. Braun, at .301/.380/.526, is 53% above average. Braun is also superior in the baserunning department and has grounded into fewer double plays. Moreover, Wrigley Field and Miller Park are about equally kind to hitters, and both batters suffer equally in their inability to bat against their own team's woeful pitching staff.

What WAR sees that we don't is defense. It credits Barney for defense double in value of any other second-sacker's, while Braun's left-field stylings more resemble the staccato flight of a pigeon. Subjectively, there appears to be a grain of truth here, but clearly not enough that anyone in Wisconsin would trade Braun for every Barney ever known, including the purple dinosaur. WAR is suffering convulsions and has been put on bed rest, at the very least.

These two developments have led some to observe FIP and WAR's death throes. The projection models have failed and it's time to put them out of their misery. But in the words of that great philosopher Quick Draw McGraw, "Now hold on there just a doggone minute, Baba Looie."

No model is perfection, not even Adriana Lima. Clearly outlier performances like Chapman's make mincemeat of statistical models. As I've mentioned before, quantitative analysis of defense is just in the bloom of its youth, beholden to bursts of impaired judgment. I rarely rely on WAR or WARP and pay much more attention to offensive valuations, leavened by a general sense of a player's glovework.

Nonetheless, FIP is an extremely useful tool, and though the value it applies to Chapman's performance is nonsense, it's not really wrong. FIP says Chapman was virtually unhittable, and by golly, he was. Only 18 batters out of 52 could even put the ball in play.

The real question then is, are these models less imperfect than the old tools? WAR certainly measures something bigger and more relevant than Triple Crown stats do, but whether it measures relative positional value better than Triple Crown stats measure hitting performance would require some sort of study. There's no doubt that FIP tells us much more about a pitcher than W-L and ERA; it's been shown to be vastly better at projecting performance.

All of which presents the same moral that every other development in quantitative analysis has: the state of the art is improving, but will never be perfect. After all, they measure the performances of people.

Dissecting a Common Fallacy

In the practice of rhetoric, deductive logic makes two demands:

1. Deductive validity. 
2. Truthful premises. 

That is, an if/then arrangement requires that the "if" statements be true and that the "then" statement flow naturally and inevitably from the combination of "if" statements.

For example: 

Mike Trout is the best player in the American League this year.

Mike Trout is a rookie.

Therefore Mike Trout is the Rookie of the Year.

It's valid and true. Although true, this isn't deductively valid:

Mike Trout is a rookie.

Mike Trout has the highest batting average in the league.

Therefore Mike Trout is the Rookie of the Year.

Many sports radio talk show hosts are inadequately schooled in logic.  Consider this segment paraphrased from a recent ESPN radio broadcast:

"Who are the managers of the year in the AL and NL? How about Davey Johnson? The Washington Nationals have the best record in baseball, three great starters and a different hitting star everyday. Even if they shut down Strasburg, they're looking good."

"The Reds have won five in a row even without their star Joey Votto. Dusty Baker is a veteran manager with a World Series on his resume. How about Clint Hurdle? He has the Pirates primed for their first winning season in 20 years."

"Bruce Bochy has kept the Giants atop the West. Maybe he's the guy."

"In the American League, the Yankees will win the East despite a rash of injuries, but before you crown Joe Girardi, Ron Washington has the Rangers ahead in the West."

This segment was based on several unstated fallacies:

1. The manager of the year is the skipper of the most surprisingly good team.

2. The manager is responsible for his players' performances.
3. You can measure how good a manager is by how often his team wins.

4. That the manager has guided a team to a pennant in the past has some bearing on his performance this year.

5. No actual data, anecdotes, research, knowledge or information is necessary to determine a manager's value.

Baseball writers have singularly relied on the first fallacy to elect their Manager of the Year each season, but there isn't a shred of evidence that there's any connection. Indeed, in every other sport we measure managers/head coaches by the sustained success of their teams, not by their episodic improvement from poor performances. Bill Belichick, Bobby Bowden, Mike Krzyzewski, Phil Jackson, Scotty Bowman and their ilk are admired not because their teams have outperformed expectations but because they set the expectations high each year and met them.

Beyond that, notice that the radio host, by failing to recite a single observation to support her arguments, unintentionally acknowledged that she toils in total ignorance of the actual work these men do. For all the host knows, one or more of them is reviled or disrespected by his players. 

The unfortunate fact for those attempting to parse managing performance is that the vast majority of a manager's role eludes the public lens: managing personalities, inspiring greatness, promoting teamwork, keeping a steady hand on the till from the first buds of spring through the changing of the leaves. Team performance on the field is a woeful proxy for that.

A small function of a manager's job is the In-game tactics. What little we can see suggests neither Baker nor Washington is even adequate. (After 50 years in the business, Dusty still thinks the quintessential leadoff hitter swipes 30 bases and makes outs 70% of the time.)

It got worse. Behold this matrix of convolution:

"But how about thinking outside the box? Sure, the Angels have Albert Pujols, but they're getting production from guys you don't expect, like Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo. Mike Scioscia deserves some attention."

The cupboard is so bare of rational thought here as to boggle the mind. Primarily, the talk show host decided to abandon the core fallacy -- absolving the manager for taking  a team of loaded dice and rolling craps -- and instead credit him for coaxing performance out of unexpected places (but failing to do so out of the big stars.) That particular pretzel logic is the perfect coda on an argument that captures, in one four-minute segment, why sports talk radio is a barren desert, and why Manager of the Year votes are completely, utterly, hopelessly irrelevant.

Who's The Man Now?

So now the question is no longer whether Michael Phelps is the greatest Olympian ever, but whether Michael Phelps is the greatest Olympian of the 2012 games.

With his three golds in London, Usain Bolt has cemented his place as the greatest sprinter of all time: Bolt is the third man to win 100 and 200 in the same Olympics. 

• He's the second man to repeat in the 100. (Carl Lewis required a disqualification to achieve the feat.)
• He's the first man to repeat in the 200. 
• He's the first man to repeat in both the 100 and 200. (Not fair: WWII prevented Jesse Owens from defending his crowns.)
• He's been toying with his opponents.
• He owns the three fastest 100 times in history.
• He's run the two fastest 200 times in history.

Bolt's end-race antics prevent a complete account of his domination. We know that even loping the last few meters, he is the fastest man on earth by a healthy margin. His obliteration of the Olympic 100 came against a Dream Team field -- the fastest ever recorded.

Usain Bolt has promised a return in Rio, 2016, perhaps to gild his lily, perhaps to race to gold in the 400. Regardless, I'd vote for him as the greatest Olympian in the 2012 games.

This Punchline Is No Joke

Since the Cubs unwisely signed him into his dotage as if he'd win them an election, Alfonso Soriano has been a punchline. The 8-year/$136 million debacle shone a spotlight on Soriano's poor plate discipline, lackadaisical approach and underwhelming defense, all of which undermined the high batting average and big home run totals.

Soriano has slipped in general estimation from 40/40 superstar keystoner to utterly worthless outfielder in just a few years.The pendulum, has swung farther than is warranted, in large part due to weak performances at the plate in 2009 and 2011. Because he's never walked and no longer runs, Soriano must hit at least .260 with his usual power to have any value.

This year, at age 36 and with two more seasons on his lottery ticket, Soriano has contributed. He's hitting .271/.321/.494 with 19 homers and 22 doubles in less than two-thirds of a season. His contribution, however, has been wasted on the last place Cubs, who are not positioned to exploit his skills even if they have the bankroll to cut his checks.

It has been an annual August exercise for Chicago to place Soriano's name on the waiver wire and for general managers everywhere to yawn. Or giggle. This year, though, several contenders light on the lumber might want to consider placing a claim. This was not originally my idea; I stole it from Jack Moore at Fangraphs.

Imagine you're the Tampa Rays. You're desperate for a decent outfield or DH bat, like one that posts an OPS 18% above league average. You're wallowing in the Wild Card rumble with the league's second-best pitching but a punchless offense weighed down by the offensive floundering of Desmond Jennings, BJ Upton and Luke Scott.

There's no way you're paying the king's ransom, or even a princely portion, for Soriano this year and the two following. Good news: Cubs GM Theo Epstein will be glad to oblige. Chicago will pay most of the tab for someone to take Soriano so they can free up a few drachma while grooming their next pennant-winning team. It will take a couple of prospects to consummate the deal, but Tampa has that in abundance.

If another team is willing to pay nearly full freight on Soriano, they can probably land him without skimming any cream off the minor league system. But more likely, a team with an outfield hole can get the the righthanded Dominican for a 50 centavos on the dollar.

We're probably a year ahead of ourselves. There might still be too much time and money left on Soriano's contract for anyone to deal. When the tipping point arrives, teams should be careful not to dismiss out of hand a guy with 350 homers and 420 doubles on his ledger even if the defense and other skills don't quite add up.