31 August 2012

The As and Os? How?

With the early hints of autumn, we've reached the time of year when sports fans, not content to wallow in their silent cluelessness, broadcast it to the world in the form of NFL predictions. Predicting teams' records is an effort in such futility that almost none of the NFL savants who breathe pigskin air 25-hours-a-day could have predicted last year's Super Bowl champ even at the end of the 16-game schedule.

This brings to mind the current state of affairs in Major League Baseball's standings, in which a serially-inept Baltimore franchise and the skeletal remains of an Oakland squad lead the AL Wild Card race, five games ahead of the Angels, who added the MVP, their main rival's best pitcher and Albert Pujols prior to the start of play, and the 2010 Cy Young after the All-Star break. This situation was inconceivable in April.

In fact, it's inconceivable now. The Orioles are 14 games over .500 despite having been outscored by 44 runs. The ace of their staff is a gentleman named Jason Hammel, a 6'6" righty with a 42-51, 4.80 record in seven years of work. Their #2 starter is some other guy and some pitcher of no note is #3. Don't even ask about #s 4 and 5.

Led by two-thirds of a good outfield (Adam Jones and Nick Markakis), the O's struggle to get aboard (third worst OBP in the AL) in front of all the big bopping (161 HRs, fourth best), leaving them ninth of 14 AL teams in scoring. Typical is shortstop JJ Hardy, whose 17 homers are more than offset by a .277 OBP. That the Orioles are a wind machine is much of the problem; seven of the nine regulars have fanned more than 80 times already.

About the only real asset in Baltimore, besides the cathedral in which they play, is the bullpen. Their five primary relievers all sport ERAs below 3.00, notably closer Jim Johnson, who's clamped down 41 of 43 saves. Still, it doesn't add up. A shutdown pen that backs a mediocre rotation and an out-challenged batting order does not ordinarily a playoff team make.

Ditto for the A's, who get a D in hitting, a B in starting pitching and an A in bullpen. It's a mystery where in that vast dump they call The Coliseum is kept the smoke and mirrors. At the plate, they're worst in the league in strikeouts, second worst in OBP and third worst in runs scored, yet they lead the Wild Card race at 16 games over .500.  Their best hitter (outfielder Josh Reddick) is a Red Sox castoff with a .327 OBP. Their best starter, Brandon McCarthy, is a seven-year veteran with a lifetime achievement of 36-38, 4.01. Similar to Baltimore, they close the door with five relievers whose ERAs all hover below 2.80, but it doesn't add up.

Stack those two rosters against the Angels, who are bursting with stars, and it's a head-scratcher. Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo, Albert Pujols, Torii Hunter and Kendrys Morales provide more firepower than the As and Os combined. L.A. stands taller on the hill too, with an enviable rotation of CJ Wilson, Cy Young-candidate Jared Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana and now Zack Greinke. The relief corps is a drag, but not enough to prevent the team from barely sticking its head above .500.

Maybe you had the Oakland-Baltimore parlay. You're one in a million. Did you also have Washington and Cincinnati at one-two in the senior circuit? Me either. But I'm smart enough -- even with a blog -- to keep my pre-season guesses to myself.

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