Insurmountable Lead . . . Surmounted

Official award ballots have to be finalized on the last day of the regular season. I only get a vote in the tangled web of my mind, and perhaps in your heart, so I'm assembling them now.

Earlier this season, Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen had taken the trophies (if indeed there are trophies involved) and stashed them prematurely in their attics (if indeed they have attics.) Both had established nearly insurmountable leads on the field.

Then a funny thing happened. Miguel Cabrera made an historic run at the Triple Crown. Buster Posey squatted between his entire team's legs and carried the Giants to an easy division crown (if indeed there is a crown involved.) And McCutchen scuffled as the Pirates rediscovered gravity.

Trout's lock on the MVP has already been documented here. (That's not to say he will win it, especially if the Tigers make the playoffs and the Angels don't. Sportswriters still stuck in the Cretaceous Period continue to limit their options to the fortunate few who have the best teammates. It's just to say that he has earned it, with all due respect to Cabrera, the best hitter in the AL and maybe the game.)

Just to add one more log to the raging inferno of awe over Mike Trout's rookie season: with respect to wins above replacement per 100 games played -- remember that Trout wasn't called up until May -- the top 10 seasons of all time have been posted by Babe Ruth (four times), Barry Bonds (twice), Rogers Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, George Brett and now the Angels' center fielder. Trout's 2012 ranks ahead of all but Ruth's 1923 season. This was Ruth's listing in Baseball Reference for that year:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB

1923

28

NYY

AL

152

697

522

151

205

45

13

41

131

17

21

170

93

.393

.545

.764

1.309

239

399

Dude had a 1.309 OPS, more than double the league average, with 399 total bases. He got on base nearly 55% of the time and scored 151 runs. Trout is second to that. And he can't legally drink yet. (This was never an issue for The Babe.)

But this is a post about the NL MVP, which many believe is back in play because McCutchen hasn't prevented the Bucs from tanking. They point out that he hit just .252/.347/.346 in August, when the team lost its bearings and lost17 of 28 games for the month. But Pittsburgh has collapsed to 6-20 in September despite McCutchen's .260/.372/.510 bounce back. (He just hit a walk-off home run for the win as I write this.) Nonetheless, there is no doubt that the peloton has reeled him in.

Let's compare him to his three primary competitors for MVP:

McCutchen    .330/.403/.557    55.6 runs offensive value   very good glove/premium position
Buster Posey  .334/.407/.544    65.9 runs value   good glove/78% of games at plus-plus position
Yadier Molina .320/.378/.512    53.4 runs value    great glove/plus-plus position
Ryan Braun    .319/.391/.602    53.9 runs value    weak glove/non-premium position

Clearly the field has narrowed. I see a discernible difference between the top two -- McCutchen & Posey -- and the bottom two -- Molina and Braun. Posey's bat is McCutchen's equal under more difficult conditions. Moreover, returning from a catastrophic 2011 injury, he may have needed time to round into form. He's hit .384/.456/.641 in the second half while playing mostly behind the plate. His added punch has offset the damaging loss of Melky Cabrera to the Giants just when the NL West division battle was heating up.

The MVP crystal ball, once crystal clear, has fogged. I'd cast my ballot for Posey unless something stunning happens in the last six games. Does that take Scott Cousins off the hook?