04 August 2012

This Punchline Is No Joke


Since the Cubs unwisely signed him into his dotage as if he'd win them an election, Alfonso Soriano has been a punchline. The 8-year/$136 million debacle shone a spotlight on Soriano's poor plate discipline, lackadaisical approach and underwhelming defense, all of which undermined the high batting average and big home run totals.

Soriano has slipped in general estimation from 40/40 superstar keystoner to utterly worthless outfielder in just a few years.The pendulum, has swung farther than is warranted, in large part due to weak performances at the plate in 2009 and 2011. Because he's never walked and no longer runs, Soriano must hit at least .260 with his usual power to have any value.

This year, at age 36 and with two more seasons on his lottery ticket, Soriano has contributed. He's hitting .271/.321/.494 with 19 homers and 22 doubles in less than two-thirds of a season. His contribution, however, has been wasted on the last place Cubs, who are not positioned to exploit his skills even if they have the bankroll to cut his checks.

It has been an annual August exercise for Chicago to place Soriano's name on the waiver wire and for general managers everywhere to yawn. Or giggle. This year, though, several contenders light on the lumber might want to consider placing a claim. This was not originally my idea; I stole it from Jack Moore at Fangraphs.

Imagine you're the Tampa Rays. You're desperate for a decent outfield or DH bat, like one that posts an OPS 18% above league average. You're wallowing in the Wild Card rumble with the league's second-best pitching but a punchless offense weighed down by the offensive floundering of Desmond Jennings, BJ Upton and Luke Scott.

There's no way you're paying the king's ransom, or even a princely portion, for Soriano this year and the two following. Good news: Cubs GM Theo Epstein will be glad to oblige. Chicago will pay most of the tab for someone to take Soriano so they can free up a few drachma while grooming their next pennant-winning team. It will take a couple of prospects to consummate the deal, but Tampa has that in abundance.

If another team is willing to pay nearly full freight on Soriano, they can probably land him without skimming any cream off the minor league system. But more likely, a team with an outfield hole can get the the righthanded Dominican for a 50 centavos on the dollar.

We're probably a year ahead of ourselves. There might still be too much time and money left on Soriano's contract for anyone to deal. When the tipping point arrives, teams should be careful not to dismiss out of hand a guy with 350 homers and 420 doubles on his ledger even if the defense and other skills don't quite add up.

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