Another Spin in the Wayback Machine

In honor of the upcoming movie Mr. Peabody, based on the old-time cartoon in which an erudite dog schools a bespectacled youth on history via his time machine, we put our own thrusters in reverse and examine recent Braindrizzlings to see how the future turned out. Spoiler alert: objective analysis doesn't lie.

This January post unveiled a drizzle on Kyle Lohse's parade, casting his breakout 2012 (2.76 ERA in 211 innings, 3.76 K/BB, best year of his 12-year career) as a flash in the pan. Well. He experienced a second flash (3.35 in 199 innings, 3.42 K/BB, second best year of his 13-year career) in 2013. He's now produced 40% of his value in his past two seasons.

In this brief foray into March Madness, Oregon's indefensibly-low seeding in the NCAA tournament was paradoxically described as a boon to the Ducks and a travesty for their first-round opponent, Oklahoma State. Oregon blitzed the Cowboys en route to a Sweet 16 berth.

What must Adam Dunn have to bat to earn his roster spot? The answer from this early season post was .230. Sure enough, Dunn belted 34 homers and got aboard 32% of the time, but slotted in below replacement level because of a .219 batting average. A handful more hits would have raised the on base to 34% and the replacement value to black ink.

It was the same formula for Mark Reynolds, another Three True Outcomes star who walks less than Dunn but plays better defense. Reynolds hit .236 and delivered less than a win above replacement.

If the suggestion in this May post that the return of injured stars would catapult the Yankees into contention was slightly off-base it's because the premise was flawed. The stars didn't return as expected and the regression gerbils began nibbling at their replacements. 

There was no more regressing left for righty Joe Blanton, whom we pronounced cooked and served after an 0-6, 5.66 start. He actually improved over the rest of the season, which is all the sadder given his 2-14, 6.04 final record. Absorbing 180 hits and 29 home runs in 133 frames is the first step towards bar ownership back in Bowling Green.

The same post provided the rough draft on the obituary for Toronto's playoff hopes. The rationale, even that early in the season, rested on a lack of injury, bad luck, or other reversible factors for their slow demise. Small sample size be damned, the Jays captured the AL East cellar with 88 losses.

Here's one sure to elicit a chuckle: May 12 brought the assertion that the scrubs and stars Dodgers would not ascend to dominance unless someone not yet currently producing emerged as a star. Five regulars and Clayton Kershaw were booming but the rest of the team had less value than lunch at Sonic. It's doubtful this was the plan: three weeks later, a young Cuban named Puig and a former child star named Hanley joined the roster and lit rocket boosters under the team, driving them to the NLCS.

A week later, the first of several Shin-soo Choo homage sitings in this space proclaimed the Red Korean from non-Red Korea a beneficiary of the sabermetric movement. His modest lifetime averages (.293 BA, 18 HR and 73 RBI) would not have warranted much esteem from the baseball community 20 years ago, but today teams recognize his.389 OBP, base running proficiency and defensive flexibility. Sure enough, one Hot Stove League later, the Rangers bestowed their appreciation on Choo in the form of 130 million of their Texas-sized dollars.

So, with apologies to Kyle Lohse, calling 'em like we see 'em worked out pretty well, at least through the first third of the 2013 season. A peek back at June and beyond in a future post, when your attention span is rejuvenated.

Piercing Insights To Shock and Amaze

Momentary lasers of brilliance that couldn't wait to be disseminated to the world...

Big Donkey Still Kickin'

Adam Dunn wasn't nicknamed The Big Donkey to denote grace and beauty afield. Mostly the White Sox hide his glove and pencil in his name as DH. He's hitting .209 and following a record-setting strikeout trajectory with 172.

And he's worth nearly two wins compared to a replacement DH.

That's because Dunn leads the AL in home runs and walks too, giving him a respectable .342 OBP and an exemplary .494 SLG. By way of comparison, Reds sparkplug Brandon Phillips is batting 80 points higher but has posted an OBP 12 points lower.

Dunn is a quintessential Three True Outcomes (TTO) hitter: of his 512 plate appearances he's actually tested the opponent's defense just 214 times. The other 298 trips have comprised walks, strikeouts, HBP or balls hit out of the park. His infield teammate (when Sox manager Robin Ventura saddles his defense with Dunn at first), Gordon Beckham has made the defense work 333 times in just 445 plate appearances. Dunn's TTO score is 58.2%; Beckham's a more average 25.2%.

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Run-Run-Run-Runaway

If high drama is your cup of tea, the MVP race in each league is a steaming mug of strychnine. 

With a quarter of the season left, Miguel Cabrera, has a .990 OPS, 31 HR and 104 RBI, and has posted an offensive value in the five-win range. And he's a distant second in the MVP race. 

Angels phenom Mike Trout, with a 1.011 OPS and 39 steals in 42 attempts (zounds!) is worth nearly seven wins to his team -- and that's before you subtract Cabrera's third base butchery and add Trout's brilliance at the premium midfield position. 

Unless Trout tanks, Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Robinson Cano, Edwin Encarnacion, AJ Pierzynski and others will have to settle for an attaboy from their manager (and perhaps a World Series ring).

Likewise in the NL, where Melky Cabrera has turned into a pumpkin and Joey Votto's injury has removed him from contention. Pirate center fielder Andrew McCuthcen's 1.020 OPS and fielding genius has also lapped the field. Barring a McCutchen face plant down the stretch, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and David Wright will battle for silver (and probably no World Series appearances). 

Same for the Rookie of the Year award. Try a cuppa Joe.

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The Cat Says, Do It Now

Bobby Valentine could do something immediately to boost the Red Sox fortunes: Whisper the following to his disappointing left fielder, "Carl, have the surgery now."

Carl Crawford has played just 30 games this year due to a torn elbow ligament. He needs Tommy John surgery but a chivalrous streak has kept him from abandoning his troubled teammates and their late-season Wild Card run.

"What late season Wild Card run," you may have asked yourself, or your cat, who was minding her own important business, consisting largely of staring blankly into space or licking her private parts and swallowing the loose hair, for re-purposing later on the carpet. 

Exactly. 

Recovery from the TJ surgery will take six-to-nine months. (Recovery from the hairball will take several minutes and also involve labored breathing.) If Crawford hangs on for Boston's inevitable demise on Oct. 3, his healthy return for the 2013 campaign might be delayed into summer. Going under the knife next week virtually guarantees his availability at the start of the 2013 season, when the Red Sox won't be seven games in the hole.

With improved pitching that will result from the natural evolution of I haven't the foggiest idea, Boston plans to contend in 2013, and for that they need the contributions from Crawford that they paid for in the 2011 off-season. 

It's certainly possible that Fenway's brutal mound corps could catch fire pigs fly just as David Ortiz returns to a newly-rejuvenated lineup hell freezes over, leading New England's favorites out from the sub-.500 abyss chicken have teeth and past the five teams ahead of them for the Wild Card on a week with two Thursdays. That kind of miracle could occur, as this Boston contingent knows all too well, but if Crawford wants to play the odds, sticking around the rest of this season is like betting that fish will climb trees.

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He Can't Go Home Again

If Hanley Ramirez has a home in Miami, he might want to reconsider returning there following the season. After blasting the Marlins with his suck ray in 2011 and 2012, he's delivered .330/.392/.549 and good defense to the Dodgers, including four homers in a three game set against his old compadres. In just 23 games in L.A., Ramirez has been worth more to his team than in the previous 185 games in Florida.

Think they want to string him up in the Sunshine State?

Now if the Dodgers are smart, they'll flip Hanley's re-motivated self to another club while his value remains spiked and let his next sulk come at someone else's expense. That might ease the pain endured by the franchise from the re-signing of another Ramirez in 2009 to a disastrous two-year, $45 million deal after he temporarily re-discovered his inspiration with them in the 2008 season.

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The Devil's Good Side

While maintaining that expanded playoffs are the devil's workshop, I have to admit that the massive disadvantage bestowed in the new format upon Wild Card teams is shooting bolts of interest into the division races.

This year, it matters whether Chicago or Detroit wins the AL Central, or whether L.A. or San Francisco takes the NL West, even if the loser earns a post-season consolation prize. The loser's playoff fortunes will ride on a one-game, anything goes play-in game, followed by a division series in which they may have already burned their top starter.

The result: the consolation prize won't be worth anything to 50% of the teams that grab it, and even advancement into the playoffs will still entail a climb over the odds.

Expect two positive developments from the new post-season scenario:

1. Despite a doubling of Wild Card qualifiers, there will be a small decline in Wild Card teams making the World Series. 

2. The Wild Card game will be considered by baseball fandom to be a play-in, not a playoff, and teams that succumb in that  match will not be generally understood as having made the post-season.

It's the End of the World As We Know It, and They Feel Fine in Pittsburgh

In the last week, the Yankees secured a spare part of no particular value (the remnants of Ichiro) to further overpopulate their outfield, the Dodgers traded a promising pitcher (Nathan Eovaldi) for a high-priced malcontent who can no longer handle short or third or slug like he used to (Hanley Ramirez), and the Pirates -- the Pirates! -- swapped a trio of farmhands for a veteran mid-rotation hurler (Wandy Rodriguez), while the Astros acquired three more prospects for a 30-something pitcher (aforementioned Wandy) who's got to be tired of hurling in vain.

And the Marlins cashed it in, 95 games after mortgaging the franchise with a trio of free agent leaps.

Holy Upside-Down Day, Batman! What's going on here?

The usually-adept Yankees have a long history of plugging last-gasp veterans into limited roles, but it's hard to fathom Ichiro. His .261/.288/.353, 16 of 18 steals and banishment from center field are indicative of his declining skills. I guess the Bombers are expecting a 65-game rebound from him to cushion the loss of Brett Gardner.

The rejuvenated Dodgers are banking on a change in scenery for Ramirez, who was aggrieved by the signing of Jose Reyes that displaced him at short and left him scuffling like it was 2011. Still just 28, he has spent 180 games hitting .245 and losing 200 points of OPS from his '06-'10 peak. A $30 million L.A. gamble, he's tumbled from cost-controlled, five-tool superstar to below-average, multi-millionaire position-filler. Although he displaces Dee Gordon, an empty uniform at short or Juan Uribe, a sub-replacement lead weight at third, replacing replacement-level performance is hardly worth the trouble.

Meanwhile, Houston and Pittsburgh, two of the saddest sack franchises in baseball, orchestrated a deal that not only benefits both, but is tailor-made for both of them. The Astros had the easy part, converting a quality 33-year-old pitcher of no value to them into a trio of potential future assets. 

In Pittsburgh, the "Welcome Back To Relevance" banner now hangs in PNC Park. A bumper crop on the farm has allowed the team to bolster its rotation for a -- gulp -- playoff run, and two more seasons beyond, with little damage to the future. The 'Stros pick up nearly half the $30 million tab for the Wandy-man, leaving Pittsburgh plenty of room in 2013 to obtain more strategic assets. For Houston, now occupying the Pirates' old position in the pecking order, it's about plowing under this year's crop to prepare the soil for future growth. 

And then there is Miami, which needed all of four months to scuttle its expensive but ill-conceived four-year plan. I wonder how that gaudy new stadium is going to look empty. Well, we'll soon find out.

New York is still World Series favorites, the Dodgers are still a fraud, but now a poorer one, the Marlins are still a mess, but without the daily reminder. The Pirates and Astros are each something new: a contender and a wise investor. It's nice to see.

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