A Triple Crown of Nothingness

Now that Miguel Cabrera is making an assault on the Triple Crown, even savvy commentators are wondering if he could nonetheless whiff on the MVP. Good question: let's delve.

Ted Williams won the Triple Crown in '42 and '47, but finished second in the MVP balloting to Yankees Joe Gordon and Joe DiMaggio respectively in a pair of travesty votes. (Williams won the slash stats triple crown as well those years, with .356/.499/.648 and .342/.497/.667 marks. Guy could swing the wood. He would win the slash stat triple crown five times and lead the AL in OPS 10 times.)

More to the point, because batting average, home runs and RBIs don't measure the most important things, they lead us off the scent. Even with the benighted slash stats we have a fuzzy picture. Let's take a look:

Miguel Cabrera   .333 BA   40 HR   111 RBI   .396 OBA   .612 SLG
Mike Trout          .327 BA   27 HR   77 RBI    .396 OBA    .558 SLG

Even using slash stats, Cabrera looks like the same offensive force, but with more boom in his bat.

Now consider this:
Miguel Cabrera has hit into 28 double plays. Mike Trout, seven. 
Mike Trout has stolen 46 of 50 bases. Miguel Cabrera, four of five.

In other words, add to Cabrera's total four more total bases and 29 more outs. Credit Trout 46 more bases and 11 outs. Their new slash stats:

Cabrera   .378 OBP   .615 SLG
Trout       .389 OBP   .649 SLG

Now we see that Trout is a greater offensive force than Cabrera. Compare him to the lower hitting standard of a center fielder, and Trout's 7.8 offensive wins against replacement beats Cabrera's 7.0.

Of course, that's not the end of the story. Trout owns the critical middle pasture. Cabrera makes dogs growl and babies cry with his third base gyrations. I don't trust the defensive metrics, but I think we can conservatively call the difference "a chasm."

Miguel Cabrera could win the Triple Crown and not be the best hitter in the AL this year. He could be the best hitter in the AL this year and not be the best offensive performer. And he could be the best offensive performer this year without being the most valuable player. 

How about that, sports fans!