Sabermetricians have taught us new and better ways to analyze the game of baseball. Sometimes, however, they fall victim to the allure of their own imperfect theories.
For example, there are various sabermetric player projection systems out there that are marginally better at predicting player performance than the average well-informed baseball fan. These systems know a few things that you might not; e.g., that a player was particularly lucky or unlucky last year (mostly a result of his BABIP -- batting average on balls in play) or how players tend to change as they age, or what happens to hitters following anomalous seasons. But baseball is too unpredictable to...well... predict, even with a computer.
Nonetheless, some sabermetricians make judgements about players as if their systems are infallible and know more than the coaches, managers and GMs who are acquainted with the players personally and watch them play everyday. These stat geeks express shock when something occurs that's outside their projection systems.
Last week Joe Sheehan, a highly respected writer for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus, asserted that the Braves should flip Jair Jurrjens to another team next year as the Braves deal with an abundance of starting pitching (Jurrjens, promising rookie Tommy Hanson, aces Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez, Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami and rehabbed star Tim Hudson.) Sheehan observed that Jurrjens has outperformed the pitching indicators and could yield a return beyond his actual value.
Before I disassemble this leap of logic, those indicators merit some discussion. Statheads have noticed that pitcher ERA and won-loss records fluctuate wildly from year to year, but pitchers are much more predictable in their ability to walk and strike out batters, which, after all, are outcomes over which they have total control. Statheads have further noticed that pitchers who aren't fooling hitters, i.e., striking them out, tend not to be very successful. That doesn't mean pitchers have to throw heat, just that whatever they're serving up has hitters confounded sufficiently to keep them in the park and prevent large numbers of screaming liners.
This isn't a foolproof formula: there are pitchers who regularly succeed or fail despite walk/strikeout totals that suggest the opposite, and there are pitchers whose performance fluctuates wildly even though their walk/strikeout rates remain constant. Instead, it gives rise to some guidelines that prevent analysts from jumping to conclusions about pitchers who've been lucky or unlucky.
It's worth noting that for his career, Jurrjens has been the beneficiary of a very low BABIP. Pitchers with low one-year BABIPs often have either great defense behind them or serendipity smiling upon them. Either one suggests the pitcher is less accomplished than he appears.
So back to Sheehan, Jurrjens and the Braves surfeit of arms. First, haven't we learned anything from the '09 Red Sox? There is no such thing as an abundance of pitching. A blow up here, a tired arm there, a couple of Tommy Johns and before you know it, your six starters have melted away. The Braves should try to sign a couple of outfield/first base bats in the offseason, but they should definitely not trade any of the most valuable commodities in baseball.
Moreover, Jair Jurrjens' walk/strikeout and BABIP numbers are irrelevant, at least to the extent that they presage future accomplishments. Sure, Jurrjens has walked 140 batters against 272 strikeouts in his 383 innings of major league work, a sub 2-1 K/BB ratio that is often an indicator of future trouble. And his .310 BABIP is about 20 points lower than normal.
But Jair Jurrjens has been doing this for two-and-a-half years. In 2008 and 2009, he's been one of the 15 best starters in baseball, with a lifetime ERA of 3.43. He's relinquished less than a hit an inning and a brilliant 0.63 home runs per game. Jurrjens hurls in The Ted, not a particularly HR-averse field. He's also kept up this low BABIP, which suggests that he's enticing batters to put balls in play weakly.
The Braves traded for the Curacao native in the '08 off-season because they saw something they liked. Would you agree that that particular franchise might know a little something about good young pitchers? In short, he has proven that he is a superb pitcher despite a tepid walk-strikeout ratio and low BABIP.
The question has never been whether statistics are helpful to analyzing baseball games and players, just whether we understand the stats and use them appropriately. Sometimes even the stat guys forget that.
b
30 August 2009
27 August 2009
22 August 2009
$15 Million Worth of Slavery
The dust has cleared on the Stephen Strasburg signing and thankfully so, because the only thing worse than Scott Boras waxing self-righteous about the injustice of the baseball draft is Scott Boras justifiably waxing self-righteous about the baseball draft.
Baseball's amateur draft (like its football, basketball and hockey counterparts) is collusion among legal monopolists focused on reducing labor costs. I can't blame any agent for trying to bust up a system that deprives his clients of millions of dollars.
When foreign players make their services available, MLB teams bid the ranch for them, so we know what valuable properties like Strasburg are worth to them. The draft is a mechanism for limiting risk and preventing the Strasburgs from commanding those fees.
But you won't find me bemoaning the fate of prospects who can't rake in the millions before they've even made a Double-A lineup. Players who demonstrate that they are worth the money eventually get it. It's hard to cry "indentured servitude" about employees whose apprenticeships only return a half-million dollars per annum.
Principle is not the reason that Strasburg "settled" for $15.1 million. He pushed his negotiations as far as he could and cashed in at the moment his leverage was about to crater. Had he not signed in '09, there's no guarantee that anyone would give him what he wanted in '10...or ever. In that time, his arm could go limp or some Venezuelan in an independent league could clang a fastball back off his cranium and -- poof! -- there goes Mr. Payday, out the door with Ms. Health Insurance.
Principle may be Scott Boras's bag, knowing that a talent like Strasburg could command double in a real free market. Boras has future clients and a long time horizon to consider, but Stephen Strasburg does not. That's why the Nationals brass are correctly considering the fattest contract for a drafted player to have been a victory for them: they got their man and didn't have to break up the cartel.
b
Baseball's amateur draft (like its football, basketball and hockey counterparts) is collusion among legal monopolists focused on reducing labor costs. I can't blame any agent for trying to bust up a system that deprives his clients of millions of dollars.
When foreign players make their services available, MLB teams bid the ranch for them, so we know what valuable properties like Strasburg are worth to them. The draft is a mechanism for limiting risk and preventing the Strasburgs from commanding those fees.
But you won't find me bemoaning the fate of prospects who can't rake in the millions before they've even made a Double-A lineup. Players who demonstrate that they are worth the money eventually get it. It's hard to cry "indentured servitude" about employees whose apprenticeships only return a half-million dollars per annum.
Principle is not the reason that Strasburg "settled" for $15.1 million. He pushed his negotiations as far as he could and cashed in at the moment his leverage was about to crater. Had he not signed in '09, there's no guarantee that anyone would give him what he wanted in '10...or ever. In that time, his arm could go limp or some Venezuelan in an independent league could clang a fastball back off his cranium and -- poof! -- there goes Mr. Payday, out the door with Ms. Health Insurance.
Principle may be Scott Boras's bag, knowing that a talent like Strasburg could command double in a real free market. Boras has future clients and a long time horizon to consider, but Stephen Strasburg does not. That's why the Nationals brass are correctly considering the fattest contract for a drafted player to have been a victory for them: they got their man and didn't have to break up the cartel.
b
21 August 2009
A Wagnerian Opera
By the time you read this, events may have passed it by, but the Mets' Billy Wagner dilemma is worth examining.
It appears that the Mets, by showcasing the fireballing lefty following his long DL stint, and then placing him on the waiver wire, expect to buy out his $1 million option next year rather than pay him $8 million to stay. That in turn indicates that the Mets don't expect to compete seriously in 2010.
There's no reason KRod and Wagner can't co-exist in Queens. They would form a devastating lefty-righty bullpen combo, with one pitching the 8th and the other the 9th depending on the handedness of the batters due up. With the help of a decent "set-up" man, the Mets would truncate each game to six innings, a prospect that could benefit the starting rotation in myriad ways.
Certainly the brains of some managers and GMs (and virtually all baseball reporters) would get snagged on the idea of splitting saves between two star closers. But statistics are servants, not masters. They should illuminate what's important, not distort strategy in order to accumulate them. A bullpen of Wagner, KRod and a few working parts would almost certainly be the best in baseball, regardless who "closes."
No one has done this before, and it bucks conventional wisdom to some degree. That's a big hill for a GM to climb, particularly a GM facing the prospect of unemployment with one more wrong move. Omar Minaya is probably more risk averse than Ben Bernanke at this point, and tampering with baseball tradition is about as risky as it gets, short of violating an "unwritten rule."
Of course, it's not my money, so it's easy for me to endorse the expenditure of $8 million. But I'm guessing that even the seriously-Madofffed Fred Wilpon would gladly spend $8 million for a pennant, particularly given what he's been through the last three MLB campaigns. In addition, the Mets may know something about Wagner that we don't. Perhaps they believe that his two-strikeout audition against the Phillies was his high water mark and that the Red Sox, or whoever takes Wagner off their hands, would be getting damaged goods. In that case, a trade might save them some salary this year, $1 million next year, and return a promising youngster in trade.
Personally, I'd like to see the Mets figure out how to create synergy with their dynamic closer duo. They might actually knock over some false idols in the process. But I'm not counting on it.
b
It appears that the Mets, by showcasing the fireballing lefty following his long DL stint, and then placing him on the waiver wire, expect to buy out his $1 million option next year rather than pay him $8 million to stay. That in turn indicates that the Mets don't expect to compete seriously in 2010.
There's no reason KRod and Wagner can't co-exist in Queens. They would form a devastating lefty-righty bullpen combo, with one pitching the 8th and the other the 9th depending on the handedness of the batters due up. With the help of a decent "set-up" man, the Mets would truncate each game to six innings, a prospect that could benefit the starting rotation in myriad ways.
Certainly the brains of some managers and GMs (and virtually all baseball reporters) would get snagged on the idea of splitting saves between two star closers. But statistics are servants, not masters. They should illuminate what's important, not distort strategy in order to accumulate them. A bullpen of Wagner, KRod and a few working parts would almost certainly be the best in baseball, regardless who "closes."
No one has done this before, and it bucks conventional wisdom to some degree. That's a big hill for a GM to climb, particularly a GM facing the prospect of unemployment with one more wrong move. Omar Minaya is probably more risk averse than Ben Bernanke at this point, and tampering with baseball tradition is about as risky as it gets, short of violating an "unwritten rule."
Of course, it's not my money, so it's easy for me to endorse the expenditure of $8 million. But I'm guessing that even the seriously-Madofffed Fred Wilpon would gladly spend $8 million for a pennant, particularly given what he's been through the last three MLB campaigns. In addition, the Mets may know something about Wagner that we don't. Perhaps they believe that his two-strikeout audition against the Phillies was his high water mark and that the Red Sox, or whoever takes Wagner off their hands, would be getting damaged goods. In that case, a trade might save them some salary this year, $1 million next year, and return a promising youngster in trade.
Personally, I'd like to see the Mets figure out how to create synergy with their dynamic closer duo. They might actually knock over some false idols in the process. But I'm not counting on it.
b
16 August 2009
Blowin' In the Wind
About a year ago I addressed Mark Reynolds' future, pointing out how hard it is for a wind turbine like him to be a productive hitter. In a nutshell, a guy who strikes out 200 times a year has eliminated a third of his opportunities to create a positive result. That means he has to be wildly productive in those remaining plate appearances.
This year, that's exactly what he's doing. So far in 2009, the Diamondbacks third baseman has stepped to the plate 487 times. He's whiffed on 158 occasions, about a third of the time and on pace to break his own K record of 204 set last year.
In the remaining 335 plate appearances, Reynolds has walked 59 times and been hit by four pitches, leaving 268 at bats. For Reynolds to achieve even a mediocre .250 batting average, he has to hit .396 in those non-strikeout situations. (This is a statistic that is regularly kept these days -- BABIP -- batting average on balls in play.)
In 2009 Reynolds has passed that exam with flying colors. He is hitting a whacky .451 on balls in play. Moreover, 37 of those 122 hits have been home runs. When he makes contact, Mark Reynolds has a one in seven chance of banging one out. That's pretty historic, even given the dinger-friendly contours of the BoB.
For the year, Reynolds' line is .285/.376/.603, a level that would put him in the MVP discussion on an alien planet that contained no Albert Pujols. Of course, the big question is whether an otherworldly .451 BABIP is sustainable. The answer is no. And yes.
Ordinarily, when you see that a player is hitting .451 on balls in play, you are staring into a crystal ball flashing "regression alert!" Most hitters live around the .333 mark, and anything far outside that is a reflection of luck more than skill. But Mark Reynolds is not any player. Obviously, he is swinging for the fences every time he bats. The two consequences of this approach are that he fans at a record-breaking rate and he crushes the ball when he does make contact. Hitting the ball hard is the formula for getting hits.
Reynolds' first two seasons presage these results. He hit .430 and .395 on balls in play in '07 and '08, walking and homering at lower rates. His approach has been consistent and he's improved a little. That, his age (26) and his build (athletic, not stocky) are good signs for his future. Mark Reynolds can be a very good hitter for much of the next decade even while stirring up the breeze.
b
This year, that's exactly what he's doing. So far in 2009, the Diamondbacks third baseman has stepped to the plate 487 times. He's whiffed on 158 occasions, about a third of the time and on pace to break his own K record of 204 set last year.
In the remaining 335 plate appearances, Reynolds has walked 59 times and been hit by four pitches, leaving 268 at bats. For Reynolds to achieve even a mediocre .250 batting average, he has to hit .396 in those non-strikeout situations. (This is a statistic that is regularly kept these days -- BABIP -- batting average on balls in play.)
In 2009 Reynolds has passed that exam with flying colors. He is hitting a whacky .451 on balls in play. Moreover, 37 of those 122 hits have been home runs. When he makes contact, Mark Reynolds has a one in seven chance of banging one out. That's pretty historic, even given the dinger-friendly contours of the BoB.
For the year, Reynolds' line is .285/.376/.603, a level that would put him in the MVP discussion on an alien planet that contained no Albert Pujols. Of course, the big question is whether an otherworldly .451 BABIP is sustainable. The answer is no. And yes.
Ordinarily, when you see that a player is hitting .451 on balls in play, you are staring into a crystal ball flashing "regression alert!" Most hitters live around the .333 mark, and anything far outside that is a reflection of luck more than skill. But Mark Reynolds is not any player. Obviously, he is swinging for the fences every time he bats. The two consequences of this approach are that he fans at a record-breaking rate and he crushes the ball when he does make contact. Hitting the ball hard is the formula for getting hits.
Reynolds' first two seasons presage these results. He hit .430 and .395 on balls in play in '07 and '08, walking and homering at lower rates. His approach has been consistent and he's improved a little. That, his age (26) and his build (athletic, not stocky) are good signs for his future. Mark Reynolds can be a very good hitter for much of the next decade even while stirring up the breeze.
b
15 August 2009
Taking Offense in the East
When you add a healthy Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon on a 30-HR pace and Robby Cano's Dr. Jekyll side to a lineup of Texeira, Rodriguez and Jeter, it doesn't matter how many Nick Swishers or Brett Gardners nose their way into the lineup, you're going to be near the lead in the Majors in run scoring. And if you can get plus performances out of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes behind mercenaries Sabathia and Burnett, well, it's no surprise that you've got the best record in the game.
The truth is, the Yankees can ride that rocket ship lineup to the playoffs even without much pitching and defense. They're on pace to score 100 more runs than anyone else in the division, which leaves a lot of leeway in the field.
Look at the Equivalent Averages for the Yankees starters: (EQA condenses offensive production, including baserunning, into one number that looks like a batting average. It is adjusted for home park.)
Texeira .312
Damon .304
Rodriguez .304
Jeter .295
Matsui .295
Swisher .293
Posada .291
Cano .287
Cabrera .266
In other words, the entire lineup is above average, and the second weakest link is one of the top three second basemen in the league.
The Yankees may or may not run away with the division. That's entirely up to the Red Sox. And if you're wondering what's wrong with the Red Sox, here's the answer: nothing.
Oh sure, the Sox have done less hitting since the All-Star break than a Quaker, and several of their pitching hopes have flamed out. All of which is a testament to Theo Epstein's construction of the team. With a working premise that you never really know about your pitching, Boston stockpiled hurlers. They have withstood the Smoltz and Matsuzaka disasters, Wakefield getting hurt, Brad (Hardly Worth A) Penny and other rotation failures to post the best overall pitching in the AL.
The fields have gone fallow lately on the offensive side, which is why mixing Victor Martinez into the Lowell/Youkilis/Kotchman rotation makes so much sense, even if it looks like overkill. What would really improve the Red Sox would be the benching of their two beloved deadweights -- David Ortiz and Jason Varitek.
Ortiz had his last great gasp in June, when he batted over .300 and smacked a string of home runs. Even including those four good weeks, his .221/.310/.411 production is inadequate for a speedy middle-infield gloveman, much less a Brontosaurus DH.
Tek started the season with his hair on fire, but he's cooled and mortified since then to .222/.333/.441. Throw in the black hole at shortstop and the Sox trot out three empty batting spots against the likes of division foes Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia and Matt Garza. That's not getting it done.
Boston still leads the Wild Card race and can be a serious threat in the playoffs. They have to parlay all that depth into a better lineup. And they have to wait for lack of depth to catch up to everyone else.
b
The truth is, the Yankees can ride that rocket ship lineup to the playoffs even without much pitching and defense. They're on pace to score 100 more runs than anyone else in the division, which leaves a lot of leeway in the field.
Look at the Equivalent Averages for the Yankees starters: (EQA condenses offensive production, including baserunning, into one number that looks like a batting average. It is adjusted for home park.)
Texeira .312
Damon .304
Rodriguez .304
Jeter .295
Matsui .295
Swisher .293
Posada .291
Cano .287
Cabrera .266
In other words, the entire lineup is above average, and the second weakest link is one of the top three second basemen in the league.
The Yankees may or may not run away with the division. That's entirely up to the Red Sox. And if you're wondering what's wrong with the Red Sox, here's the answer: nothing.
Oh sure, the Sox have done less hitting since the All-Star break than a Quaker, and several of their pitching hopes have flamed out. All of which is a testament to Theo Epstein's construction of the team. With a working premise that you never really know about your pitching, Boston stockpiled hurlers. They have withstood the Smoltz and Matsuzaka disasters, Wakefield getting hurt, Brad (Hardly Worth A) Penny and other rotation failures to post the best overall pitching in the AL.
The fields have gone fallow lately on the offensive side, which is why mixing Victor Martinez into the Lowell/Youkilis/Kotchman rotation makes so much sense, even if it looks like overkill. What would really improve the Red Sox would be the benching of their two beloved deadweights -- David Ortiz and Jason Varitek.
Ortiz had his last great gasp in June, when he batted over .300 and smacked a string of home runs. Even including those four good weeks, his .221/.310/.411 production is inadequate for a speedy middle-infield gloveman, much less a Brontosaurus DH.
Tek started the season with his hair on fire, but he's cooled and mortified since then to .222/.333/.441. Throw in the black hole at shortstop and the Sox trot out three empty batting spots against the likes of division foes Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia and Matt Garza. That's not getting it done.
Boston still leads the Wild Card race and can be a serious threat in the playoffs. They have to parlay all that depth into a better lineup. And they have to wait for lack of depth to catch up to everyone else.
b
11 August 2009
What's He Worth In Loonies?
Would you sign the following guy to a five-year $61 million contract: A good 28-year-old center fielder with a .285/.335/.451 batting line that has declined each of the past two years?
That's essentially what Kenny Williams did when the White Sox took Alex Rios off the Blue Jays' hands through the waiver wire. Rios signed a lucrative deal two years ago on the assumption that he would continue to progress. Instead, he's lost track of the strike zone and misplaced his power stroke, and the Blue Jays find themselves perennially winning Miss Congeniality in the stacked AL East.
At first blush, I thought Canada owed Chicago a bouquet and thank you note for providing them some salary flexibility. But as long as the White Sox believe they're in the playoff mix, sprinkling in Rios has the salutary effect of transforming Scott Podsednik and his whiffle bat into a late-inning defensive stopper. That's got to sound good to the flyball-prone rotation of Buehrle, Danks and Floyd.
At $12 million/year for half-a-decade, Williams may have bought himself an expensive albatross, but he might also have locked in a good power-speed-defense guy who just needs a little instruction. Real center fielders -- not corner outfielders playing up the middle -- who can hit a little are a hard to come by, as the continued employment of Andruw Jones attests. It's a bold and very expensive gamble, but if you're a Southie, it's not your money, so you've got to be encouraged.
b
That's essentially what Kenny Williams did when the White Sox took Alex Rios off the Blue Jays' hands through the waiver wire. Rios signed a lucrative deal two years ago on the assumption that he would continue to progress. Instead, he's lost track of the strike zone and misplaced his power stroke, and the Blue Jays find themselves perennially winning Miss Congeniality in the stacked AL East.
At first blush, I thought Canada owed Chicago a bouquet and thank you note for providing them some salary flexibility. But as long as the White Sox believe they're in the playoff mix, sprinkling in Rios has the salutary effect of transforming Scott Podsednik and his whiffle bat into a late-inning defensive stopper. That's got to sound good to the flyball-prone rotation of Buehrle, Danks and Floyd.
At $12 million/year for half-a-decade, Williams may have bought himself an expensive albatross, but he might also have locked in a good power-speed-defense guy who just needs a little instruction. Real center fielders -- not corner outfielders playing up the middle -- who can hit a little are a hard to come by, as the continued employment of Andruw Jones attests. It's a bold and very expensive gamble, but if you're a Southie, it's not your money, so you've got to be encouraged.
b
09 August 2009
Inroads
This space has documented a lot of ignorance, particularly in sports media, of the updated methods, improved analysis and new stats that shine brighter illumination on the game, its teams and its players.
But the overall trend is excellent. Sports Illustrated turns over a full page to Baseball Prospectus writer Joe Sheehan for insight otherwise not found in mainstream media. They also reference the latest research in baseball articles, including a nifty piece on base running in the July edition.
ESPN employs Rob Neyer, a direct descendant -- sabermetrically -- of Bill James. Keith Law, another Jamesian scholar, former front office executive and current Scouts Inc. guy, makes regular appearances on ESPN radio. Others, Peter Gammons most notably, regularly mention players' OPS -- on base plus slugging percentage -- a vastly better measure than triple crown stats.
Last week I heard former Cincinnati Post and Sporting News baseball writer Jerry Crasnick mention the Verducci efect -- the negative effect on young pitchers, discovered by writer Tom Verducci, that an increase of 30% in innings pitched from one year to the next produces.
I was watching a game on TV at Citi Field and noticed that they post hitters' OBP. So when Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina bat for the Giants, you can see their impressive batting averages but also note their unimpressive on base percentages and realize that they're really not very productive hitters.
Of course, some broadcasters have been on board for years. Jon Sciambi is on the mountain top there and I've gleefully overheard complaints about Gary Cohen for referencing VORP and BABIP, simple concepts that measure (respectively) a player's value compared to replacement player at his position and his batting average on balls in play, which can suggest whether a hitter has been particularly lucky or unlucky over a short period.
It's good. We're moving in the right direction. Now I would like to see the beat writers, broadcasters, MVP voters and Hall of Fame voters understand and use these concepts. Once they do, they will be common currency among fans. Then, we'll all know the game better and I can shut up and close down this blog.
What could be better than that?
b
But the overall trend is excellent. Sports Illustrated turns over a full page to Baseball Prospectus writer Joe Sheehan for insight otherwise not found in mainstream media. They also reference the latest research in baseball articles, including a nifty piece on base running in the July edition.
ESPN employs Rob Neyer, a direct descendant -- sabermetrically -- of Bill James. Keith Law, another Jamesian scholar, former front office executive and current Scouts Inc. guy, makes regular appearances on ESPN radio. Others, Peter Gammons most notably, regularly mention players' OPS -- on base plus slugging percentage -- a vastly better measure than triple crown stats.
Last week I heard former Cincinnati Post and Sporting News baseball writer Jerry Crasnick mention the Verducci efect -- the negative effect on young pitchers, discovered by writer Tom Verducci, that an increase of 30% in innings pitched from one year to the next produces.
I was watching a game on TV at Citi Field and noticed that they post hitters' OBP. So when Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina bat for the Giants, you can see their impressive batting averages but also note their unimpressive on base percentages and realize that they're really not very productive hitters.
Of course, some broadcasters have been on board for years. Jon Sciambi is on the mountain top there and I've gleefully overheard complaints about Gary Cohen for referencing VORP and BABIP, simple concepts that measure (respectively) a player's value compared to replacement player at his position and his batting average on balls in play, which can suggest whether a hitter has been particularly lucky or unlucky over a short period.
It's good. We're moving in the right direction. Now I would like to see the beat writers, broadcasters, MVP voters and Hall of Fame voters understand and use these concepts. Once they do, they will be common currency among fans. Then, we'll all know the game better and I can shut up and close down this blog.
What could be better than that?
b
06 August 2009
I'm Just Sayin'
Last year I opined that it would be great for Tom Glavine and John Smoltz to join Greg Maddux in retirement. The three of them ought to make their Cooperstown debuts together. I pointed out that, in their 40s, Glavine had dropped to sixth on the depth chart while Smoltz had earned the loyal customer discount at the rehab store.
Instead, Glavine signed up for one last stint with the Braves and Smoltz inked a deal to spell Dice-K in Boston as soon as his elbow was compliant. And several readers sent their verbal brick-a-bats my way for demeaning the two greats.
Fast forward to August 6, 2009. Having watched Grandpa Tom throw in practice, the Braves cast their lot instead with guys barely clear of their pacifiers, and Smoltz, back from the DL, has contributed exquisitely to the Yankees' pennant run, surrendering a Ponsonian 39 runs in 41 innings. By hanging around one year too many, they'll not only have to retire on someone else's terms (Glavine's services are in demand on par with Mike Vick's), but the magic carpet carrying Maddux into the Hall of Fame in 2013 will have to come back for them the following year.
I also suggested that Plaxico Burris not shoot himself in the thigh. I'm telling ya, ballplayers should listen to me.
b
Instead, Glavine signed up for one last stint with the Braves and Smoltz inked a deal to spell Dice-K in Boston as soon as his elbow was compliant. And several readers sent their verbal brick-a-bats my way for demeaning the two greats.
Fast forward to August 6, 2009. Having watched Grandpa Tom throw in practice, the Braves cast their lot instead with guys barely clear of their pacifiers, and Smoltz, back from the DL, has contributed exquisitely to the Yankees' pennant run, surrendering a Ponsonian 39 runs in 41 innings. By hanging around one year too many, they'll not only have to retire on someone else's terms (Glavine's services are in demand on par with Mike Vick's), but the magic carpet carrying Maddux into the Hall of Fame in 2013 will have to come back for them the following year.
I also suggested that Plaxico Burris not shoot himself in the thigh. I'm telling ya, ballplayers should listen to me.
b
02 August 2009
Mystery Guest, Please Sign In
I'd like to introduce you to a future Hall of Famer. You know his name, and may have even voted for him for the All-Star game. But if I asked you his HoF chances, you would balk. You might not immediately identify him as the best player in his league at his position.
This player, now in his fourth full season, has put up slash stats (BA/OBP/SP) of .298/.360/.504 with 82 home runs. In other words, he hits for average and power. Let's compare him to the greatest ever at his position. (The slash stats are career numbers; the home run total is for the player's first four full seasons)
Our Player .298/.360/.504 82 HR
Player A .285/.348/.482 89 HR
Player B .255/.308/.432 113 HR
Player C .308/.377/.545 127 HR
Player D .261/.357/.366 36 HR
Player E .276/.362/.500 108 HR
Remember, our current player hasn't finished his fourth season, so there are more HRs to come.
It's worth noting that Player C toiled virtually all of his career in two of the three hitting-averse parks in baseball -- Dodger and Shea Stadiums. Mike Piazza wasn't the best backstop, but he could rake like no other.
Which brings us to Brian McCann, who is no Mike Piazza at the plate, but he's at least the equal, of (in order) Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench, Bill Dickey and Roy Campanella. And that's about the best company you can keep if you're a catcher. If he can keep it up, he'll be keeping that company in Cooperstown.
b
This player, now in his fourth full season, has put up slash stats (BA/OBP/SP) of .298/.360/.504 with 82 home runs. In other words, he hits for average and power. Let's compare him to the greatest ever at his position. (The slash stats are career numbers; the home run total is for the player's first four full seasons)
Our Player .298/.360/.504 82 HR
Player A .285/.348/.482 89 HR
Player B .255/.308/.432 113 HR
Player C .308/.377/.545 127 HR
Player D .261/.357/.366 36 HR
Player E .276/.362/.500 108 HR
Remember, our current player hasn't finished his fourth season, so there are more HRs to come.
It's worth noting that Player C toiled virtually all of his career in two of the three hitting-averse parks in baseball -- Dodger and Shea Stadiums. Mike Piazza wasn't the best backstop, but he could rake like no other.
Which brings us to Brian McCann, who is no Mike Piazza at the plate, but he's at least the equal, of (in order) Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench, Bill Dickey and Roy Campanella. And that's about the best company you can keep if you're a catcher. If he can keep it up, he'll be keeping that company in Cooperstown.
b
Don't Believe the Tripe
If you purchased a fixer-upper, would you put new double-paned, super-insulated windows into sagging window frames or would you fix the wall first? Would you consider the resplendent brass faucets a useless luxury for a dented aluminum sink in a rotting counter top? Might you sell the hot tub to pay for a shower insert that would prevent further molding?
This is the situation facing the management, specifically the president and general manager, of the Pittsburgh Pirates. They will never make the playoffs with this team, notwithstanding two or three decent 31-year-old players. The Jack Wilsons and Freddy Sanchezes (Sanchezs? Sanchezs'? Sanchemen?) might help the Pirates win 70 games this year, but they're not going to contribute to the plan for a winning team in 2012.
So when you hear sports talk radio dingoes braying about the Pirates selling off their best parts, remember that Frank Coonelly (president) and Neal Huntington (GM) are trying to develop a franchise, not win 70 games this year. That fans in the Steel City haven't had a rootable ballclub for 17 seasons is immaterial to Coonelly and Huntington, who joined the club after the '07 campaign. Their job is to tear down the dilapidated eyesore and construct something habitable, and that's not going to happen this year or next.
Whether the Pirates have reeled in any usable parts from their offloads of Xavier Nady, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzellany, Adam Laroche, Wilson and Sanchez in the last two years is another matter. Huntington has snagged his trading partner's top three prospect in almost none of the deals. But as a scout with the Indians he helped recruit a constellation of stars (that has largely failed to produce) in Cleveland.
Time will tell whether the trades the Pirates have made were the right ones. But we already know that trading guys at the top of their value for young players is a strategy for future success, and that's the only kind of success Pirate fans can hope to have.
b
This is the situation facing the management, specifically the president and general manager, of the Pittsburgh Pirates. They will never make the playoffs with this team, notwithstanding two or three decent 31-year-old players. The Jack Wilsons and Freddy Sanchezes (Sanchezs? Sanchezs'? Sanchemen?) might help the Pirates win 70 games this year, but they're not going to contribute to the plan for a winning team in 2012.
So when you hear sports talk radio dingoes braying about the Pirates selling off their best parts, remember that Frank Coonelly (president) and Neal Huntington (GM) are trying to develop a franchise, not win 70 games this year. That fans in the Steel City haven't had a rootable ballclub for 17 seasons is immaterial to Coonelly and Huntington, who joined the club after the '07 campaign. Their job is to tear down the dilapidated eyesore and construct something habitable, and that's not going to happen this year or next.
Whether the Pirates have reeled in any usable parts from their offloads of Xavier Nady, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzellany, Adam Laroche, Wilson and Sanchez in the last two years is another matter. Huntington has snagged his trading partner's top three prospect in almost none of the deals. But as a scout with the Indians he helped recruit a constellation of stars (that has largely failed to produce) in Cleveland.
Time will tell whether the trades the Pirates have made were the right ones. But we already know that trading guys at the top of their value for young players is a strategy for future success, and that's the only kind of success Pirate fans can hope to have.
b
31 July 2009
...And We All Love Andy Pettite
David Ortiz got a standing ovation last night following a report that he flunked the secret 2003 steroid test. They love them some Big Papi in Beantown, but they hate Manny Ramirez, that traitor who forced a trade to the Dodgers.
Ramirez was caught using steroids this year, but was cheered upon his return from suspension by the fans in L.A. who appreciate how he carried the team to the playoffs last year and the best record in baseball this year. However, they despise that cheating bastard Barry Bonds.
Bonds, of course, led the Giants to relevance and a World Series, and set the home run record in San Francisco, where fans defend him to this day. They won't acknowledge Alex Rodriguez if he manages to beat 762 because he's a lying, adulterous, fraud.
Fans in the Bronx don't much cotton to ARod either, but mainly because he hits into double plays in key situations and has the audacity to be a better player than Derek Jeter. Still, when ARod goes yard to win a game in July, the fans are ready to forgive him...at least for the moment. Don't expect New Yorkers to support Mark McGwire's Hall of Fame candidacy, though. Mr. Andro. Mr. I'm not here to talk about the past.
McGwire has to return to St. Louis if he wants some baseball love. The remember him warmly for making the 1998 so memorable and for embracing the Gateway.
At least everyone can agree that they detest Roger Clemens. It's that kind of consistency of logic that makes the steroid discussion so productive.
b
Ramirez was caught using steroids this year, but was cheered upon his return from suspension by the fans in L.A. who appreciate how he carried the team to the playoffs last year and the best record in baseball this year. However, they despise that cheating bastard Barry Bonds.
Bonds, of course, led the Giants to relevance and a World Series, and set the home run record in San Francisco, where fans defend him to this day. They won't acknowledge Alex Rodriguez if he manages to beat 762 because he's a lying, adulterous, fraud.
Fans in the Bronx don't much cotton to ARod either, but mainly because he hits into double plays in key situations and has the audacity to be a better player than Derek Jeter. Still, when ARod goes yard to win a game in July, the fans are ready to forgive him...at least for the moment. Don't expect New Yorkers to support Mark McGwire's Hall of Fame candidacy, though. Mr. Andro. Mr. I'm not here to talk about the past.
McGwire has to return to St. Louis if he wants some baseball love. The remember him warmly for making the 1998 so memorable and for embracing the Gateway.
At least everyone can agree that they detest Roger Clemens. It's that kind of consistency of logic that makes the steroid discussion so productive.
b
30 July 2009
Commish For A Day
Happy 75th birthday to Bud Selig, neither the best nor the worst commissioner in MLB history. People like to pile poo on ol' Bud, but when you consider that he's the owners' minion, he's done a credible job of innovating, keeping up with technology, going global and keeping labor peace -- after a painful apprenticeship. Blaming Selig for steroids is like blaming George W. Bush for September 11, except in reverse. No one saw 9/11 coming; we all knew in their hearts that players were taking steroids.
Suppose you were commissioner for a day and had absolute power. What one thing would you do? Here's my top priority.
I would remind Major League Baseball that, first and foremost, it's in the entertainment business. And sometimes, it's lousy entertainment. No nine-inning game with fewer than 20 runs scored should take more than two-and-a-half hours. The first two hours of a game are fun. The last inning or two can be exciting if the score is close. Beyond that is simply keeping us up late.
So I would pour all my energy into juicing the game's entertainment value. I'd eliminate the parts of games that have high time-consumption-to-entertainment ratios. First culprit: the pitching change. A pitcher who hasn't started an inning may not be removed unless he gives up a run. Sure, it might dis-employ those left-handed specialists, but get us to the good stuff more quickly, particularly in the late innings when the tension, not the boredom, should be mounting.
And if that doesn't have sufficient impact, I'd crack down further by limiting mound visits or even more strictly limiting pitching changes. Because no one goes to a baseball game to watch the manager hold a committee meeting with his hurler, third baseman and catcher. Most of us get more than our share of committee meetings when we're not at the ballpark.
Second, there is no such thing as time out once a player comes to bat. Step in the batter's box and stay there. No practice swings (didn't you get enough of those in the minors?), no batting glove refittings (you make a mint: buy gloves that fit) and no mind games. The fans have trains to catch.
Third, just wave the guy to first on an intentional walk. I've heard the argument that throwing the pitch can lead to infinite possibilities, but in exchange for the excitement of the quadrennial wild pitch, we'll have the excitement of the actual game.
Fourth, limit pitcher pickoff attempts. Stolen bases are exciting; soft tosses to first basemen are not. Crisply played games are exciting. Staying up until 11:45 on a Tuesday is not.
That's my one day as commissioner. What's yours?
b
Suppose you were commissioner for a day and had absolute power. What one thing would you do? Here's my top priority.
I would remind Major League Baseball that, first and foremost, it's in the entertainment business. And sometimes, it's lousy entertainment. No nine-inning game with fewer than 20 runs scored should take more than two-and-a-half hours. The first two hours of a game are fun. The last inning or two can be exciting if the score is close. Beyond that is simply keeping us up late.
So I would pour all my energy into juicing the game's entertainment value. I'd eliminate the parts of games that have high time-consumption-to-entertainment ratios. First culprit: the pitching change. A pitcher who hasn't started an inning may not be removed unless he gives up a run. Sure, it might dis-employ those left-handed specialists, but get us to the good stuff more quickly, particularly in the late innings when the tension, not the boredom, should be mounting.
And if that doesn't have sufficient impact, I'd crack down further by limiting mound visits or even more strictly limiting pitching changes. Because no one goes to a baseball game to watch the manager hold a committee meeting with his hurler, third baseman and catcher. Most of us get more than our share of committee meetings when we're not at the ballpark.
Second, there is no such thing as time out once a player comes to bat. Step in the batter's box and stay there. No practice swings (didn't you get enough of those in the minors?), no batting glove refittings (you make a mint: buy gloves that fit) and no mind games. The fans have trains to catch.
Third, just wave the guy to first on an intentional walk. I've heard the argument that throwing the pitch can lead to infinite possibilities, but in exchange for the excitement of the quadrennial wild pitch, we'll have the excitement of the actual game.
Fourth, limit pitcher pickoff attempts. Stolen bases are exciting; soft tosses to first basemen are not. Crisply played games are exciting. Staying up until 11:45 on a Tuesday is not.
That's my one day as commissioner. What's yours?
b
29 July 2009
Relief Is In Sight
Computer's in the shop, delaying posts. But a Mets-Braves game from two weeks ago provided a sufficiently excellent teaching moment to comment on even now.
In a division showdown at The Ted, Johan Santana locked up with Kenshin Kawakami in a 2-0 pitchers' duel through seven frames. Santana came out after 115 crisp pitches in favor of a fresh Pedro Feliciano, who needed all of two pitches to serve up a delicious tater to Chipper Jones. Brian McCann followed with a single and Feliciano was escorted off the mound. Sean Green mixed a walk in between two outs and lefty specialist Pat Misch was brought in to face southbat Ryan Church. Whom he promptly walked.
So to recap, Johan Santana blanked the Braves for seven innings and then it took a trio of relievers to lose the shuout and load the bases .
Mets up 2-1, bottom of the eighth, bases full, two outs in a game they really need to stay in the NL East race. Would you call this a critical moment of the game? Who would you want pitching in that situation, your best reliever (and probably second-best pitcher) or your fifth best reliever, with a lifetime 5.08 ERA in 161 innings?
Jerry Manuel chose the latter because the baseball gods have decreed that a closer pitches the ninth inning, not the eighth. Or perhaps he buys into the absurd myth (I know, I know, that's redundant and repetitive) that a pitcher can get burned out getting four outs, but not three. In any case, Manuel brings in journeyman Brian Stokes and leaves Fransisco Rodriguez warming up in the bullpen with the game on the line.
Stokes fans pinch whiffer Greg Norton to preserve the lead and vindicate Manuel. But then the Mets push three across in the top of the ninth and Manuel is stuck with KRod on the hill with a lead that even the Mets' sixth best reliever could nail down. The end result is that Manuel's groupthink paralysis leaves the game in Brian Stokes's hands and relegates KRod to irrelevance.
Contrast that with Bobby Cox, who for much of the season ditched the prevailing lack of wisdom and alternated his closer and set-up guy depending on the handedness of the opponent batting order. It makes a lot more sense and never put him in a position where his 12th best pitcher was the game's fulcrum. And that kind of flexibility is the difference between a good game manager and a bad one.
b
In a division showdown at The Ted, Johan Santana locked up with Kenshin Kawakami in a 2-0 pitchers' duel through seven frames. Santana came out after 115 crisp pitches in favor of a fresh Pedro Feliciano, who needed all of two pitches to serve up a delicious tater to Chipper Jones. Brian McCann followed with a single and Feliciano was escorted off the mound. Sean Green mixed a walk in between two outs and lefty specialist Pat Misch was brought in to face southbat Ryan Church. Whom he promptly walked.
So to recap, Johan Santana blanked the Braves for seven innings and then it took a trio of relievers to lose the shuout and load the bases .
Mets up 2-1, bottom of the eighth, bases full, two outs in a game they really need to stay in the NL East race. Would you call this a critical moment of the game? Who would you want pitching in that situation, your best reliever (and probably second-best pitcher) or your fifth best reliever, with a lifetime 5.08 ERA in 161 innings?
Jerry Manuel chose the latter because the baseball gods have decreed that a closer pitches the ninth inning, not the eighth. Or perhaps he buys into the absurd myth (I know, I know, that's redundant and repetitive) that a pitcher can get burned out getting four outs, but not three. In any case, Manuel brings in journeyman Brian Stokes and leaves Fransisco Rodriguez warming up in the bullpen with the game on the line.
Stokes fans pinch whiffer Greg Norton to preserve the lead and vindicate Manuel. But then the Mets push three across in the top of the ninth and Manuel is stuck with KRod on the hill with a lead that even the Mets' sixth best reliever could nail down. The end result is that Manuel's groupthink paralysis leaves the game in Brian Stokes's hands and relegates KRod to irrelevance.
Contrast that with Bobby Cox, who for much of the season ditched the prevailing lack of wisdom and alternated his closer and set-up guy depending on the handedness of the opponent batting order. It makes a lot more sense and never put him in a position where his 12th best pitcher was the game's fulcrum. And that kind of flexibility is the difference between a good game manager and a bad one.
b
16 July 2009
This Post's Performance Has Been Enhanced
We take you to a random day in real life sports talk radio...
Caller One: Anyone who tests positive for steroids or anything, they're outta the game. Forever.
Host: Yeah, and anyone who ever did steroids -- McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, Clemens, whoever -- Cooperstown is closed to them. That's it. No Hall of Fame.
Sidekick: Their records gotta be stricken too. Back to 61 for the home run record, and Aaron with 755.
Caller Two: I hate ARod, the cheating bum. He can never be the all-time home run king, I don't care how many the guy hits. Never!
Host: You got that right. Keep the game clean.
Next, we take a stroll down an alternative universe where only thinking people can host and call sports talk radio.
Host: The subject of steroids is a giant Rumsfeldian puzzle: No one really knows what happened in the past. No one really knows what's happening in the present. No one has any idea what's going to happen in the future. It's a quagmire of a swamp of a tar pit.
Caller One: The more I know about PEDs, the more difficult it is to reach definitive conclusions. Should we bar steroid users from the Hall of Fame?
Sidekick: How about other kinds of cheaters? Wasn't Gaylord Perry's nail file a performance enhancer? How about amphetamines during the 70s?
Caller Two: Gentlemen, I feel compelled to point out that amphetamines were freely available to all the players. There was little competitive advantage to taking them.
Host: Thanks Alex from Maryland. You make a good point. But the dilemma for the players then is much the same as it is now. Should I cheat and break the law to keep up with all the other cheaters, or should I abstain from performance enhancement and suffer the consequences on the field? It's the competitive disadvange for non-users that's the real problem.
Caller Two: There's no proof that steroids affect player performance. You have to be able to hit the ball either way.
Host: I've heard that Pollyana argument and it really doesn't hold water. We saw home run numbers spike when players began juicing and trough when baseball began testing. We saw players like Clemens and Bonds play at the very highest level well into their 40's as no one had ever done before. We saw 180-pound players disappear for a winter and return at 215 pounds. If there were really no advantage to taking steroids and their derivatives, players wouldn't be risking ill health, ignominy, and a regimen of painful injections for them.
Caller Three: I'm really conflicted. What do we do with records that seem so tainted and players whose extraordinary performance seems to be at least partly the result of taking illegal drugs?
Sidekick: Jason from Conecticut, if you're conflicted, it shows you're paying attention. It's a dilemma. But one of the beauties of baseball is that its records are self-correcting. That's why the asterisk next to Maris's home run record was unnecessary: fans knew that Ruth had achieved his feat in 154 games. They'll know that Bonds' lifetime home run record was juice-aided and continue to consider Aaron the king. We still think of Babe Ruth as the greatest home run hitter, even though he no longer holds a single home run record.
Host: And as for their place in Cooperstown, I think the same logic holds. Put the steroids controversy on the plaque, or even on the wall above players whose careers spanned the 1994-2005 period. Fans will know. But don't leave maybe the greatest left-fielder and one of the five best pitchers of all time out of the Hall.
Caller Four: I hate A-Fraud. Without steroids he sucks. He isn't half the player Jeter is and he chokes in...CLICK.
Host: Clayton from Spartanburg, I think you dialed the wrong number. You want 1-800-99OnFox. As for Alex Rodriguez, remember that he tested positive in a supposedly anonymous test in which 103 other players rang it up as well. It's unfair that ARod was outed. And don't be so sure about anyone else because their name could be on that list too.
Sidekick: Also remember that baseball now has the most rigorous testing program in major team sports. Players today, including ARod, have peed into more cups than urinals. So we need to give the game and its players the benefit of the doubt today. Not before the testing, then everyone is under suspicion, but since the testing began.
Caller Five: Guys, I really appreciate your putting this discussion in perspective, but can we move on? All that's in the past. We've got a great season going on right now. Albert Pujols has had the best career start of any player in history. Jamie Moyer and Josh Hamilton are amazing stories. The AL East might be the toughest division ever. The two Central divisions could go down to the wire and produce some surprising results. We could see some blockbuster trades with the deadline looming. And best of all, the level of play is better than it's ever been, and more of it is available to fans nationwide than ever before.
Host: Who is this, Mark McGwire?
Sidekick: I don't want to talk about the past...
Host: But he's got a point. After the break, if I told you the Mets would trade for Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado in the second half of the season, would that make them contenders? Coming up...
b
Caller One: Anyone who tests positive for steroids or anything, they're outta the game. Forever.
Host: Yeah, and anyone who ever did steroids -- McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, Clemens, whoever -- Cooperstown is closed to them. That's it. No Hall of Fame.
Sidekick: Their records gotta be stricken too. Back to 61 for the home run record, and Aaron with 755.
Caller Two: I hate ARod, the cheating bum. He can never be the all-time home run king, I don't care how many the guy hits. Never!
Host: You got that right. Keep the game clean.
Next, we take a stroll down an alternative universe where only thinking people can host and call sports talk radio.
Host: The subject of steroids is a giant Rumsfeldian puzzle: No one really knows what happened in the past. No one really knows what's happening in the present. No one has any idea what's going to happen in the future. It's a quagmire of a swamp of a tar pit.
Caller One: The more I know about PEDs, the more difficult it is to reach definitive conclusions. Should we bar steroid users from the Hall of Fame?
Sidekick: How about other kinds of cheaters? Wasn't Gaylord Perry's nail file a performance enhancer? How about amphetamines during the 70s?
Caller Two: Gentlemen, I feel compelled to point out that amphetamines were freely available to all the players. There was little competitive advantage to taking them.
Host: Thanks Alex from Maryland. You make a good point. But the dilemma for the players then is much the same as it is now. Should I cheat and break the law to keep up with all the other cheaters, or should I abstain from performance enhancement and suffer the consequences on the field? It's the competitive disadvange for non-users that's the real problem.
Caller Two: There's no proof that steroids affect player performance. You have to be able to hit the ball either way.
Host: I've heard that Pollyana argument and it really doesn't hold water. We saw home run numbers spike when players began juicing and trough when baseball began testing. We saw players like Clemens and Bonds play at the very highest level well into their 40's as no one had ever done before. We saw 180-pound players disappear for a winter and return at 215 pounds. If there were really no advantage to taking steroids and their derivatives, players wouldn't be risking ill health, ignominy, and a regimen of painful injections for them.
Caller Three: I'm really conflicted. What do we do with records that seem so tainted and players whose extraordinary performance seems to be at least partly the result of taking illegal drugs?
Sidekick: Jason from Conecticut, if you're conflicted, it shows you're paying attention. It's a dilemma. But one of the beauties of baseball is that its records are self-correcting. That's why the asterisk next to Maris's home run record was unnecessary: fans knew that Ruth had achieved his feat in 154 games. They'll know that Bonds' lifetime home run record was juice-aided and continue to consider Aaron the king. We still think of Babe Ruth as the greatest home run hitter, even though he no longer holds a single home run record.
Host: And as for their place in Cooperstown, I think the same logic holds. Put the steroids controversy on the plaque, or even on the wall above players whose careers spanned the 1994-2005 period. Fans will know. But don't leave maybe the greatest left-fielder and one of the five best pitchers of all time out of the Hall.
Caller Four: I hate A-Fraud. Without steroids he sucks. He isn't half the player Jeter is and he chokes in...CLICK.
Host: Clayton from Spartanburg, I think you dialed the wrong number. You want 1-800-99OnFox. As for Alex Rodriguez, remember that he tested positive in a supposedly anonymous test in which 103 other players rang it up as well. It's unfair that ARod was outed. And don't be so sure about anyone else because their name could be on that list too.
Sidekick: Also remember that baseball now has the most rigorous testing program in major team sports. Players today, including ARod, have peed into more cups than urinals. So we need to give the game and its players the benefit of the doubt today. Not before the testing, then everyone is under suspicion, but since the testing began.
Caller Five: Guys, I really appreciate your putting this discussion in perspective, but can we move on? All that's in the past. We've got a great season going on right now. Albert Pujols has had the best career start of any player in history. Jamie Moyer and Josh Hamilton are amazing stories. The AL East might be the toughest division ever. The two Central divisions could go down to the wire and produce some surprising results. We could see some blockbuster trades with the deadline looming. And best of all, the level of play is better than it's ever been, and more of it is available to fans nationwide than ever before.
Host: Who is this, Mark McGwire?
Sidekick: I don't want to talk about the past...
Host: But he's got a point. After the break, if I told you the Mets would trade for Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado in the second half of the season, would that make them contenders? Coming up...
b
15 July 2009
All-Star Game Observations
Ball One Obama, Strike Fifty Fox
I like Barak Obama as much as the next guy does, but did he really need Fox Sports to protect his pitching reputation? With sports talk shows atwitter about whether he'd throw a strike with his ceremonial first pitch, or even reach home plate, Fox focused its cameras only on the President and never showed where the pitch landed. Even in replay, they refused to broadcast to the nation that its Comander in Chief came up short.
(Ironic, isn't it, that Fox would cover up for a lefty [in every sense of the word] like him.)
Just another piece in the giant jigsaw puzzle of ignorance that is Fox Sports.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Strike One NPR
Day-after radio headline:
A sacrifice fly by Baltimore outfielder Adam Jones scored the go-ahead run in the 8th inning as the American League defeated the National Leage for the seventh straight year...
A far more accurate accounting that doesn't overstate the importance of an RBI:
Detroit outfielder Curtis Granderson tripled and scored the go-ahead run in the 8th inning and...
That said, get used to hearing Adam Jones's name in connection with All-Star Games.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
A Microcosm
Of course, the real story was Carl Crawford's catch, which single-handedly saved a critical run and Jonathan Papelbon's bacon. How appropriate that defense by a Ray helped win the game when defense is what catapulted the Rays from the basement to the World Series last year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Man Deserved Better
Remember that great All-Star moment a decade ago when an aging Ted Williams came out to be mobbed by adoring modern-day players? That was great.
MLB dipped its foot in that very same water in St. Louis last night with Stan Musial...and it created no ripple. They needed to be just a bit creative for it to work a second time.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
And She's Yummy Too
Man, Sara Evans can punch out a tune.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
If That's A HBP, I'm A '73 AMC Pacer
Note to umpiring crew and Fox broadcast team: Wrists do no make a "bonk" sound when hit by baseballs. It was clear from the initial view that Tim Lincecum's first-inning pitch to Derek Jeter hit the knob of Jeter's bat. But it was really obvious for all to see on the two replays. Jeter himself made no pretense about being hit.
That the home plate arbiter, with only one obscured view, blew the call is defensible. That Joe Buck and Tim McCarver, with multiple replays at their service, covered it up, is unconscionable. I know that they're racked by orgiastic euphoria everytime Jeter appears, but they should at least open their eyes during the convulsions. It would help them to report the game fairly.
14 July 2009
Statement From Manny Acta
After a couple of years dealing with the Lerner family and their dysfunctional organization, I have fired the Washington Nationals. I'm a good manager and deserve a better lineup than I've been given.
I want to thank the Nationals for their service and wish the Nationals the best in their future endeavors. Though frankly, I don't have very high expectations for them. Their farm system is a disaster and their fan base is already wearing down.
Now that I am a free agent, I'll be entertaining offers from other teams to be their manager. With an excellent reputation among my peers and players, I might even land a skipper's position before the season's out. Almost certainly, I'll be in the playoffs before the Nationals are.
Oh, and make sure you keep those checks coming for the remaining two years of my contract. Man, that's going to feel good.
b
I want to thank the Nationals for their service and wish the Nationals the best in their future endeavors. Though frankly, I don't have very high expectations for them. Their farm system is a disaster and their fan base is already wearing down.
Now that I am a free agent, I'll be entertaining offers from other teams to be their manager. With an excellent reputation among my peers and players, I might even land a skipper's position before the season's out. Almost certainly, I'll be in the playoffs before the Nationals are.
Oh, and make sure you keep those checks coming for the remaining two years of my contract. Man, that's going to feel good.
b
11 July 2009
And Yet...
Since last I wrote about the All-Star game, the fans and managers have done everything they could to alter the story. After I complimented their collective sagacity, the fans voted the wrong two players into the game and the managers added their personal favorites to replace injured worthies.
Fans chose 29-year-old Shane Victorino as the last addition to the NL squad over Matt Kemp, among others. Victorino is a dashing young player sporting a park-inflated .851 OPS and 15 steals in 20 attempts. He is unlikely to keep that up, even with Citizens Bank Park on his side.
Matt Kemp is younger, at 25, more dashing, with 19 steals in 23 attempts, and easily out-hitting the Flyin' Hawaiian despite playing in one of the most offense-allergic parks in baseball. His .324 average and .892 OPS are much more in line with expectations. Fangraphs also rates Kemp as twice the fielder Victorino is. But he is seriously lacking a cool nickname.
Then Charlie Manuel added insult to injury by skipping over Kemp to pick his third outfielder, 30-year-old journeyman Jayson Werth, as an injury replacement. Werth's park-inflated .895 OPS and 12 steals in 14 attempts is impressive, and he might very well be the best-looking player in the NL, but he is no Matt Kemp and he is playing well over his head. In short, Charlie Manuel picked his guy over a player who is having a better year at the plate and in the field in a tougher ballpark who is younger and already more accomplished. Sigh.
In the AL, fans chose Brandon Inge at third over Ian Kinsler at second. This is more defensible because Inge is a nice glove man who's made the unusual move from catcher and is swatting big flies so far this campaign. My problem with Inge is that the third baseman missing from the game is not so much him, but this Rodriguez fellow who is merely the second-best ballplayer on the planet. I understand that some look askance at his struggles and missed games, but despite a hip that will still require off-season surgery, ARod has put up a .943 OPS (not counting today's two dingers) and has already blasted 17 homers in 195 at bats. By year's end he will be a top-eight MVP candidate and we'll be struggling to get that pesky Inge off our shoes.
Joe Maddon's contribution to the mayhem was to add the Rangers' exciting outfield phenomenon Nelson Cruz as an injury replacement for Torii Hunter. Cruz is a defensive stud with an Uzi connected to his shoulder and he has blasted 21 homers out of the sandlot in Arlington. He is a sentimental choice, playing his first full season at age 29, which means his career's expiration date can't be far off. Compare that to Kinsler, a fourth-year Ranger on a Hall of Fame track who has but one less homer in the same park, plays a tougher position, and is far less replaceable. If Maddon needed an outfielder, I would have suggested Jermaine Dye. His OPS is 70 points higher than Cruz's and, while not the fielder, he's crushed 20 long balls in a real baseball stadium.
I don't want to belabor the point, because other than snubbing Kemp, and a few odd pitching selections, the rosters really do form a reasonable representation of the best players in the game having the best years. Maddon is one of the three best managers in the game in my opinion and the fans really did try to pick the most deserving players.
So enjoy the game, and even more, enjoy the second half of the season. Man, it's going to be great.
b
Fans chose 29-year-old Shane Victorino as the last addition to the NL squad over Matt Kemp, among others. Victorino is a dashing young player sporting a park-inflated .851 OPS and 15 steals in 20 attempts. He is unlikely to keep that up, even with Citizens Bank Park on his side.
Matt Kemp is younger, at 25, more dashing, with 19 steals in 23 attempts, and easily out-hitting the Flyin' Hawaiian despite playing in one of the most offense-allergic parks in baseball. His .324 average and .892 OPS are much more in line with expectations. Fangraphs also rates Kemp as twice the fielder Victorino is. But he is seriously lacking a cool nickname.
Then Charlie Manuel added insult to injury by skipping over Kemp to pick his third outfielder, 30-year-old journeyman Jayson Werth, as an injury replacement. Werth's park-inflated .895 OPS and 12 steals in 14 attempts is impressive, and he might very well be the best-looking player in the NL, but he is no Matt Kemp and he is playing well over his head. In short, Charlie Manuel picked his guy over a player who is having a better year at the plate and in the field in a tougher ballpark who is younger and already more accomplished. Sigh.
In the AL, fans chose Brandon Inge at third over Ian Kinsler at second. This is more defensible because Inge is a nice glove man who's made the unusual move from catcher and is swatting big flies so far this campaign. My problem with Inge is that the third baseman missing from the game is not so much him, but this Rodriguez fellow who is merely the second-best ballplayer on the planet. I understand that some look askance at his struggles and missed games, but despite a hip that will still require off-season surgery, ARod has put up a .943 OPS (not counting today's two dingers) and has already blasted 17 homers in 195 at bats. By year's end he will be a top-eight MVP candidate and we'll be struggling to get that pesky Inge off our shoes.
Joe Maddon's contribution to the mayhem was to add the Rangers' exciting outfield phenomenon Nelson Cruz as an injury replacement for Torii Hunter. Cruz is a defensive stud with an Uzi connected to his shoulder and he has blasted 21 homers out of the sandlot in Arlington. He is a sentimental choice, playing his first full season at age 29, which means his career's expiration date can't be far off. Compare that to Kinsler, a fourth-year Ranger on a Hall of Fame track who has but one less homer in the same park, plays a tougher position, and is far less replaceable. If Maddon needed an outfielder, I would have suggested Jermaine Dye. His OPS is 70 points higher than Cruz's and, while not the fielder, he's crushed 20 long balls in a real baseball stadium.
I don't want to belabor the point, because other than snubbing Kemp, and a few odd pitching selections, the rosters really do form a reasonable representation of the best players in the game having the best years. Maddon is one of the three best managers in the game in my opinion and the fans really did try to pick the most deserving players.
So enjoy the game, and even more, enjoy the second half of the season. Man, it's going to be great.
b
05 July 2009
Huzzah for the Hoi Polloi
The fans have done it again. Give the great baseball unwashed an opportunity to stuff the All-Star ballot box with their favorite hometown representatives and what do they do? They carefully consider who's having the best year and cast their votes accordingly.
In fact, the fans generally do a better job than the managers of picking the most deserving players. Managers construct safe rosters stuffed fat with moundsman, lest they soil the game again by running out of pitchers. Of course, fans and managers alike show more fidelity to the game than the moronic "every team" rule. It forced Rays manager Joe Maddon to choose Andrew Bailey of the A's for his pitching staff. Bailey has thrown a grand total of 47 innings of Major League ball in his entire life and could be back in the minors by the time the A's play game 162 this year.
Beyond that, it's really hard to find much fault. The fans laid one egg in each league -- with Josh Hamilton in the AL and with Yadier Molina over Brian McCann in the NL. Aside from that, kudos to the masses.
The two squads suffer from rosters of 13 pitchers each. Thirteen! It cost Matt Kemp his outfield spot in the NL and either Ian Kinsler at second in the AL.
I'm casting my 33rd man vote for Kemp over Mark Reynolds of Arizona and Pablo Sandoval of the Giants. He's posted big numbers in a pitchers park, unlike Reynolds, and has demonstrated during his career that he can keep this up all season, unlike Sandoval.
In the AL, Kinsler has tailed off a bit lately, but I've selected him over Toronto DH Adam Lind and Tigers cornerman Brandon Inge. Kinsler has a track record of success, which Lind and Inge don't have, and his .833 OPS (largely on the basis of 19 homers) is more impressive for a second baseman than Lind's .937 OPS, particularly considering Lind doesn't play the field.
That there are myriad players having impressive seasons for whom there is no room on the rosters helps maintain the value of the All-Star designation. On the other hand, several of the selected newbies -- particularly relievers -- will regress to ordinary over the second half. It's the small downside of an All-Star game that serves the sport so well as a moment of pause and reflection on what another great year we're having.
b
In fact, the fans generally do a better job than the managers of picking the most deserving players. Managers construct safe rosters stuffed fat with moundsman, lest they soil the game again by running out of pitchers. Of course, fans and managers alike show more fidelity to the game than the moronic "every team" rule. It forced Rays manager Joe Maddon to choose Andrew Bailey of the A's for his pitching staff. Bailey has thrown a grand total of 47 innings of Major League ball in his entire life and could be back in the minors by the time the A's play game 162 this year.
Beyond that, it's really hard to find much fault. The fans laid one egg in each league -- with Josh Hamilton in the AL and with Yadier Molina over Brian McCann in the NL. Aside from that, kudos to the masses.
The two squads suffer from rosters of 13 pitchers each. Thirteen! It cost Matt Kemp his outfield spot in the NL and either Ian Kinsler at second in the AL.
I'm casting my 33rd man vote for Kemp over Mark Reynolds of Arizona and Pablo Sandoval of the Giants. He's posted big numbers in a pitchers park, unlike Reynolds, and has demonstrated during his career that he can keep this up all season, unlike Sandoval.
In the AL, Kinsler has tailed off a bit lately, but I've selected him over Toronto DH Adam Lind and Tigers cornerman Brandon Inge. Kinsler has a track record of success, which Lind and Inge don't have, and his .833 OPS (largely on the basis of 19 homers) is more impressive for a second baseman than Lind's .937 OPS, particularly considering Lind doesn't play the field.
That there are myriad players having impressive seasons for whom there is no room on the rosters helps maintain the value of the All-Star designation. On the other hand, several of the selected newbies -- particularly relievers -- will regress to ordinary over the second half. It's the small downside of an All-Star game that serves the sport so well as a moment of pause and reflection on what another great year we're having.
b
04 July 2009
Addendum to Previous Piece
Read the previous post before looking here. Then...
I wrote an abridged version of the previous post's critique in the comment section of the Post and Courier website. This is the response I got from the writer:
Spell his name correctly, then criticize.
(His name is spelled Francoeur.)
I think this perfectly illustrates the level of responsibility being taken by mainstream sports media for understanding the changes in baseball. This particular reporter wrote a long piece based on a false premise, and the reason is that he doesn't understand changes in the sport that began 30 years ago. Now, rather than commit himself to updating his reporting skills, he got defensive.
It's really pathetic.
b
I wrote an abridged version of the previous post's critique in the comment section of the Post and Courier website. This is the response I got from the writer:
Spell his name correctly, then criticize.
(His name is spelled Francoeur.)
I think this perfectly illustrates the level of responsibility being taken by mainstream sports media for understanding the changes in baseball. This particular reporter wrote a long piece based on a false premise, and the reason is that he doesn't understand changes in the sport that began 30 years ago. Now, rather than commit himself to updating his reporting skills, he got defensive.
It's really pathetic.
b
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)