09 August 2009

Inroads

This space has documented a lot of ignorance, particularly in sports media, of the updated methods, improved analysis and new stats that shine brighter illumination on the game, its teams and its players.

But the overall trend is excellent. Sports Illustrated turns over a full page to Baseball Prospectus writer Joe Sheehan for insight otherwise not found in mainstream media. They also reference the latest research in baseball articles, including a nifty piece on base running in the July edition.

ESPN employs Rob Neyer, a direct descendant -- sabermetrically -- of Bill James. Keith Law, another Jamesian scholar, former front office executive and current Scouts Inc. guy, makes regular appearances on ESPN radio. Others, Peter Gammons most notably, regularly mention players' OPS -- on base plus slugging percentage -- a vastly better measure than triple crown stats.

Last week I heard former Cincinnati Post and Sporting News baseball writer Jerry Crasnick mention the Verducci efect -- the negative effect on young pitchers, discovered by writer Tom Verducci, that an increase of 30% in innings pitched from one year to the next produces.

I was watching a game on TV at Citi Field and noticed that they post hitters' OBP. So when Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina bat for the Giants, you can see their impressive batting averages but also note their unimpressive on base percentages and realize that they're really not very productive hitters.

Of course, some broadcasters have been on board for years. Jon Sciambi is on the mountain top there and I've gleefully overheard complaints about Gary Cohen for referencing VORP and BABIP, simple concepts that measure (respectively) a player's value compared to replacement player at his position and his batting average on balls in play, which can suggest whether a hitter has been particularly lucky or unlucky over a short period.

It's good. We're moving in the right direction. Now I would like to see the beat writers, broadcasters, MVP voters and Hall of Fame voters understand and use these concepts. Once they do, they will be common currency among fans. Then, we'll all know the game better and I can shut up and close down this blog.

What could be better than that?
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