In 1993, following the death of Ewing Kaufman and eight years after the Kansas City Royals' only World Series championship (to that point), David Glass took the reins of the franchise. At that point, I had been a diehard Royals fan, despite growing up 1200 miles away, for 23 years. I attended the 1976 playoffs at Yankee Stadium and died a little inside when Chris Chambliss belted a ninth-inning, game-seven home run to foreclose the Royals' World Series aspiration.
Though I had never been to the state of Missouri, I followed my team and clung to my idolatry despite a string of losing seasons, because that's what a fan does.
Glass, former CEO and board chair at WalMart, was not so much a fan. Glass was a businessman who had made a career racing to the retail bottom. He deduced that a similar strategy would work in Major League Baseball, as long as he defined "worked" as "made a profit."
So Glass bled the franchise, secure in the knowledge that fans -- short for fanatics -- would continue to buy tickets and watch games on TV, not only because fanatics are fanatical but also because every game featured an opponent who might be worth watching. If the buying public wasn't interested in purchasing a ticket to see Mike Macfarlane and Hipolito Pichardo, a sufficient percentage of it would pay to see Mo Vaughn, Jim Thome, Roger Clemens and Cal Ripken.
Here's the Wikipedia entry extolling Glass' early "accomplishments" as owner:
Under Glass' leadership, the board cut the payroll budget from $41 million to $19 million. During the Major League Baseball strike of 1994-1995, Glass opposed any settlement with the players' union without a salary cap,
and supported the use of strike breaking "replacement" players, despite
a court ruling that the use of replacement players violated federal
labor law
Lovely. So my favorite team was being guided by a Neandethal who cared not one whit about his team's place in the standings.
Letting Go of My Team
As you might imagine, my fanhood waned in the '90s, both because I grew other interests and because my team was literally a lost cause. By the early 2000s I had largely stopped following the Royals, who had not been competitive for 23 years and had no prospects of improving upon that record.
Indeed, despite the hiring of Dayton Moore as GM from the successful Atlanta franchise, KC had little to show for a string of high draft picks -- among Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Luke Hochevar and Billy Butler, only Gordon had performed as advertised. When they hired Ned Yost, a dinosaur manager who disdained new and improved baseball analytics, I scoffed. It occurred to me that not only was KC a pathetic shell of an organization, its mission was at odds with my fandom.
So in 2005, when the Montreal Expos moved to Washington, I seized upon the opportunity to attach myself to a new team. Living by then in Charleston SC, I was a lot closer to the District of Columbia than to Kansas City, and I could begin anew with a franchise whose long-term goal of a championship justified the lean times early on. And indeed, early investments paved the way for a pennant contender by 2012.
Falling Back In Love With My Ex
And then a funny thing happened in Kansas City. Moore's new strategy of signing glove-first, high-contact players for his spacious ballpark, combined with a pitching rotation built from back to front, began paying dividends. The Royals won 86-89-95 games the last three years, earning two playoff berths and winning a World Series title with thrilling never-say-die performances. The Little Engine That Could is eminently rootable.
Meanwhile, despite a pile of talent, the Nationals have stumbled the last few years, unable to win a single playoff series. Their stars can be cantankerous and their new ballpark is a junk pile. My head says I'm a fan but my heart is not with the program.
What's a boy to do? I don't have a favorite football, basketball or hockey team. Being a Royals fan, and later a Nats fan, has been part of my identity, and now I seem to be suffering from a split personality. In a baseball sense, I'm bipolar. It seems clear to me that a fan divided against himself can't stand, but if I return to my childhood crush it would require divorcing my current partner, to whom I have promised fidelity, til death do we part.
I am vexed. I must choose by Opening Day. Stay tuned, or help.
Showing posts with label Washington Nationals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington Nationals. Show all posts
05 January 2016
20 August 2015
The Deficit In Washington
Here's the blog post I did not write 16 days ago, thank goodness:
All you dopes analyzing the Mets-Nationals dogfight for first place in the NL East, shut up! There is no race: the Nats are twice as talented and have all their key pieces returning to the field. The NY stagecoach turns back into a pumpkin right about now.
Which is exactly what happened -- in a parallel universe opposite ours. In our bizarre, shared reality, Washington lost 20 of 30 games, including six in a row, and has fallen under .500, dangerously behind not only the Mets, by five games, but the second Wild Card, by nine games. The only person in Washington less able to explain their performance is Hillary Clinton, but at least she's tried to obscure the evidence.
Now, there are still seven weeks left in the season, an eternity in the standings. As Sports on Earth's Will Leitch points out, the Rays, Orioles, Giants and Nationals were all locked into playoff berths seven weeks ago. Indeed, just 19 days ago, Washington owned a 2.5 game lead on the Mets, a 7.5-game turnaround in much less time than we have left.
But for another turnaround to happen, the Nationals, favorites to win 100 games when the goldenrod was just beginning to blossom, will have to perform as they have not yet.
Indeed, the issue with Matt Williams' club, beyond perhaps Matt Williams, is that nothing much and everything is responsible for their mediocrity simultaneously. Besides Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer, most of the team has been hurt, ineffective or both. Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth all own sub-.300 OBP. Last year's star, Anthony Rendon, has struggled through 167 plate appearances. It's been so bad that Tyler Moore, Matt den Dekker and, for god's sake, Dan Uggla have seen serious action. (Top OPS+ among them, den Dekker's 65.)
On the hump, chickens have come home to roost on Doug Fister's declining velocity and Stephen Strasburg's fragility. Then, GM Mike Rizzo snagged diva Jonathan Pappelbon to replace Drew Storen at closer, and instead of setting up, Storen blew up, allowing 10 runs in his last six innings, after allowing just seven runs in the previous 42.
Add to middling at the plate and on the hill, a defense tagged bottom third in the league by all the defensive metrics and you get 59-59, right where the D.C. Comics stand now.
Appropriately for a team where everything and nothing is the issue, there is plenty of time and none at all to win the East. (The Wild Card appears out of play.) The schedule gods have offered up the woeful Rockies, Brewers, Padres and Marlins on the catch-up alter, so if Washington is going to right the ship and make up ground, there's no time like the present.
All the pressure is on them, the 100-win favorites. The Mets are playing with house money and enjoying the entertaining narrative -- which is all Washington is good for these days anyway.
All you dopes analyzing the Mets-Nationals dogfight for first place in the NL East, shut up! There is no race: the Nats are twice as talented and have all their key pieces returning to the field. The NY stagecoach turns back into a pumpkin right about now.
Which is exactly what happened -- in a parallel universe opposite ours. In our bizarre, shared reality, Washington lost 20 of 30 games, including six in a row, and has fallen under .500, dangerously behind not only the Mets, by five games, but the second Wild Card, by nine games. The only person in Washington less able to explain their performance is Hillary Clinton, but at least she's tried to obscure the evidence.
Now, there are still seven weeks left in the season, an eternity in the standings. As Sports on Earth's Will Leitch points out, the Rays, Orioles, Giants and Nationals were all locked into playoff berths seven weeks ago. Indeed, just 19 days ago, Washington owned a 2.5 game lead on the Mets, a 7.5-game turnaround in much less time than we have left.
But for another turnaround to happen, the Nationals, favorites to win 100 games when the goldenrod was just beginning to blossom, will have to perform as they have not yet.
Indeed, the issue with Matt Williams' club, beyond perhaps Matt Williams, is that nothing much and everything is responsible for their mediocrity simultaneously. Besides Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer, most of the team has been hurt, ineffective or both. Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth all own sub-.300 OBP. Last year's star, Anthony Rendon, has struggled through 167 plate appearances. It's been so bad that Tyler Moore, Matt den Dekker and, for god's sake, Dan Uggla have seen serious action. (Top OPS+ among them, den Dekker's 65.)
On the hump, chickens have come home to roost on Doug Fister's declining velocity and Stephen Strasburg's fragility. Then, GM Mike Rizzo snagged diva Jonathan Pappelbon to replace Drew Storen at closer, and instead of setting up, Storen blew up, allowing 10 runs in his last six innings, after allowing just seven runs in the previous 42.
Add to middling at the plate and on the hill, a defense tagged bottom third in the league by all the defensive metrics and you get 59-59, right where the D.C. Comics stand now.
Appropriately for a team where everything and nothing is the issue, there is plenty of time and none at all to win the East. (The Wild Card appears out of play.) The schedule gods have offered up the woeful Rockies, Brewers, Padres and Marlins on the catch-up alter, so if Washington is going to right the ship and make up ground, there's no time like the present.
All the pressure is on them, the 100-win favorites. The Mets are playing with house money and enjoying the entertaining narrative -- which is all Washington is good for these days anyway.
30 July 2015
Don't Swallow the Cap: Nationals Most Improved
Someone is going to swing a deal for Cole Hamels and analysts will suggest that team is the favorite for something or other.
The Royals grabbed Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto and now, presumably, the AL pennant, as if that is automatically conferred on the best team.
If David Price moves, the recipient will look more formidable. KRod will make a nice addition to someone's bullpen. The Mets now have a third baseman, a backup with punch and another reliever to complement Familia.
Toronto upgraded at shortstop and picked up a relief pitcher, while the Angels added three outfielders in Shane Victorino, David Murphy and David DeJesus. Houston, hot on Anaheim's heels, secured Scott Kazmir, to support Keuchel and McHugh.
But no team has improved like the Washington Nationals, and all they did was replace one shutdown closer with another.
Often overlooked among the deadline deals is the value of returns from the Disabled List, particularly if they're healthy. For Washington, the renewed health of Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Jason Werth, along with the acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon, could radically improve the roster.
First to Papelbon, the new closer. That drops effective reliever Drew Storen to setup man, giving the Nats ownership of the final two innings once Scherzer, Zimmerman, Fister and Gonzalez are done putting on a show. (And that's discounting an effective return from Stephen Strasburg.) The Papelbon pickup bolsters a bullpen that had been beset by injuries. This will not only help them pull away with the division but solidify the team for the playoffs. Washington has won the most games over the last three seasons but failed to secure a single playoff series.
Zimmerman's bat was missed less than his first baseman's mitt. Fill-in Clint Robinson hit for a respectable .819 OPS in Zimmerman's stead -- Zimmerman's lifetime mark, exactly -- but the former Gold Glove hot cornerman is a much superior defender at the cold corner.
As for left field, Michael Taylor is no Jayson Werth, whose return adds a further power dimension to the lineup and allows Taylor to slot more comfortably to defensive replacement and spot centerfielder.
Rendon's reactivation ripples through the lineup. Back at third with his high on-base skills and gap power, Rendon pushes Yunel Escobar to super-sub at second, short and third, and displaces desperation substitutes Wilmer Difo (.250 OPS) and Dan Uggla (.589 OPS). That's a big upgrade.
Bottom line: the best team in the East has strengthened its entire infield, solidified its outfield and complemented the NL's best starting staff with a star-studded bullpen. The Mets picked up Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson? How quaint.
The Royals grabbed Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto and now, presumably, the AL pennant, as if that is automatically conferred on the best team.
If David Price moves, the recipient will look more formidable. KRod will make a nice addition to someone's bullpen. The Mets now have a third baseman, a backup with punch and another reliever to complement Familia.
Toronto upgraded at shortstop and picked up a relief pitcher, while the Angels added three outfielders in Shane Victorino, David Murphy and David DeJesus. Houston, hot on Anaheim's heels, secured Scott Kazmir, to support Keuchel and McHugh.
But no team has improved like the Washington Nationals, and all they did was replace one shutdown closer with another.
Often overlooked among the deadline deals is the value of returns from the Disabled List, particularly if they're healthy. For Washington, the renewed health of Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Jason Werth, along with the acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon, could radically improve the roster.
First to Papelbon, the new closer. That drops effective reliever Drew Storen to setup man, giving the Nats ownership of the final two innings once Scherzer, Zimmerman, Fister and Gonzalez are done putting on a show. (And that's discounting an effective return from Stephen Strasburg.) The Papelbon pickup bolsters a bullpen that had been beset by injuries. This will not only help them pull away with the division but solidify the team for the playoffs. Washington has won the most games over the last three seasons but failed to secure a single playoff series.
Zimmerman's bat was missed less than his first baseman's mitt. Fill-in Clint Robinson hit for a respectable .819 OPS in Zimmerman's stead -- Zimmerman's lifetime mark, exactly -- but the former Gold Glove hot cornerman is a much superior defender at the cold corner.
As for left field, Michael Taylor is no Jayson Werth, whose return adds a further power dimension to the lineup and allows Taylor to slot more comfortably to defensive replacement and spot centerfielder.
Rendon's reactivation ripples through the lineup. Back at third with his high on-base skills and gap power, Rendon pushes Yunel Escobar to super-sub at second, short and third, and displaces desperation substitutes Wilmer Difo (.250 OPS) and Dan Uggla (.589 OPS). That's a big upgrade.
Bottom line: the best team in the East has strengthened its entire infield, solidified its outfield and complemented the NL's best starting staff with a star-studded bullpen. The Mets picked up Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson? How quaint.
03 July 2014
A First New World Problem
"Dude, that's a First World problem."
What a great new aphorism. It elegantly observes that most of the irritations in our lives are mere inconveniences borne of the luxury we have, to forgo the daily need to fill our bellies, elude predators and find shelter from the elements.
The pièce de résistance though, is the ignorance of the saying. These are not First World problems because we don't live in the First World. We live in the New World, which is why Africa and much of Asia is the Third World. The First World is places like Bohemia, Saxony and Prussia.
In any case, the Washington Nationals are now suffering a very first world problem, with the return of Bryce Harper from injury. Harper, who slots in at left or center, has been spelled by Ryan Zimmerman, his predecessor as "face of the franchise." Once a Gold Glove third baseman, Zimmerman has arm issues that make long throws to first problematic.
No problem. Zimmerman has been enjoying the outer pasture in Harper's stead and stud rookie Anthony Rendon has taken his big stick to the hot corner. Until now.
With Harper's return, Nats skipper Matt Williams has some decisions to make. If he returns the phenom to left, does he sit Zimmerman and his lifetime 34 wins against replacement (at age just 29) or does he slot him back at the manager's old position? If Zimmerman is back at third, does Rendon sit or move to the keystone -- which he played in the minors-- in place of Danny Espinosa? Espo's not much at the dish but he's a nifty fielder, partly responsible for the team's league-best ERA.
Or does Zimmerman stay put, Harper slide to center and Denard Span take a seat? Like Espinosa, Span's not getting it done at the plate, but the team would take a defensive hit from moving him. Maybe Harper should bump Zimmerman who should bump Rendon who should bump Espinosa who should bump Ian Desmond at short. That would get the left handed (or switch-hitting) bats of Harper, Espinosa and Span (as well as first baseman Adam LaRoche and catcher Jose Lobaton) into the lineup against righties.
In fact, every team would like this issue with its lineup. The Red Sox have to send David Ortiz to play in first base traffic during interleague games. The Tigers can't hide Miguel Cabrera's concrete shoes because Victor Martinez isn't fit for fieldwork. And God help us: Adam Dunn has taken his glove out onto the diamond 28 times this year -- eight of them, in the outfield. So Washington's extreme flexibility is refreshing.
Sensibly, the Nats seem to be employing the "every available option" approach. Sometimes Span will come in as a defensive replacement. Some games will see Espinosa on the bench. Harper and Zimmerman will get a break now and then to limit their injury opportunities and pinch hit when needed. Interleague games will provide more options. And all the nine guys into eight slots will become irrelevant as soon as one of them inevitably tears a pull, quads an oblique or hamstrings flu-like symptoms.
It all spells less playing time for bench warmers Nate McClouth and Kevin Frandsen, but neither is even replacement value in a combined 250 plate appearances this year. If anything, the nine-into-eight dilemma strengthens Washington's biggest weakness -- its bench.
What a great new aphorism. It elegantly observes that most of the irritations in our lives are mere inconveniences borne of the luxury we have, to forgo the daily need to fill our bellies, elude predators and find shelter from the elements.
The pièce de résistance though, is the ignorance of the saying. These are not First World problems because we don't live in the First World. We live in the New World, which is why Africa and much of Asia is the Third World. The First World is places like Bohemia, Saxony and Prussia.
In any case, the Washington Nationals are now suffering a very first world problem, with the return of Bryce Harper from injury. Harper, who slots in at left or center, has been spelled by Ryan Zimmerman, his predecessor as "face of the franchise." Once a Gold Glove third baseman, Zimmerman has arm issues that make long throws to first problematic.
No problem. Zimmerman has been enjoying the outer pasture in Harper's stead and stud rookie Anthony Rendon has taken his big stick to the hot corner. Until now.
With Harper's return, Nats skipper Matt Williams has some decisions to make. If he returns the phenom to left, does he sit Zimmerman and his lifetime 34 wins against replacement (at age just 29) or does he slot him back at the manager's old position? If Zimmerman is back at third, does Rendon sit or move to the keystone -- which he played in the minors-- in place of Danny Espinosa? Espo's not much at the dish but he's a nifty fielder, partly responsible for the team's league-best ERA.
Or does Zimmerman stay put, Harper slide to center and Denard Span take a seat? Like Espinosa, Span's not getting it done at the plate, but the team would take a defensive hit from moving him. Maybe Harper should bump Zimmerman who should bump Rendon who should bump Espinosa who should bump Ian Desmond at short. That would get the left handed (or switch-hitting) bats of Harper, Espinosa and Span (as well as first baseman Adam LaRoche and catcher Jose Lobaton) into the lineup against righties.
In fact, every team would like this issue with its lineup. The Red Sox have to send David Ortiz to play in first base traffic during interleague games. The Tigers can't hide Miguel Cabrera's concrete shoes because Victor Martinez isn't fit for fieldwork. And God help us: Adam Dunn has taken his glove out onto the diamond 28 times this year -- eight of them, in the outfield. So Washington's extreme flexibility is refreshing.
Sensibly, the Nats seem to be employing the "every available option" approach. Sometimes Span will come in as a defensive replacement. Some games will see Espinosa on the bench. Harper and Zimmerman will get a break now and then to limit their injury opportunities and pinch hit when needed. Interleague games will provide more options. And all the nine guys into eight slots will become irrelevant as soon as one of them inevitably tears a pull, quads an oblique or hamstrings flu-like symptoms.
It all spells less playing time for bench warmers Nate McClouth and Kevin Frandsen, but neither is even replacement value in a combined 250 plate appearances this year. If anything, the nine-into-eight dilemma strengthens Washington's biggest weakness -- its bench.
03 December 2013
Fister Bump for Washington
While Democrats and Republicans in the legislative and executive branches continue their largely successful effort to promote the merits of a Chinese-style dictatorship, there is one man, at least, in the District of Columbia who has demonstrated the ability to deal effectively with adversaries.
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo didn't even need his ATM card to wrangle #2-level starter Doug Fister from the Tigers for a trio of farmhands whom the experts say are more likely roster-filler than prospects.
It seems to be an artifact of positional glut that teams with one too many (name your position, in this case starting pitcher) often fail to demand equal value in trade. They seem to be settling for the value that the redundant player represented for them, rather than the value he would bring to his new team. The Tigers, flush with the Verlanders and Scherzers of the world, found themselves with six healthy starters and five starter slots.
Perhaps Detroit knows something about Fister that none of the rest of us does and was willing to flip him and the $20 million or so he'll command in his last two years of arbitration for some spare parts. (Or perhaps GM Dave Dombrowski needed to unload 20 big stacks in order to sign closer Joe Nathan.) But one would think the rest of Major League Baseball could use 200 innings of top-shelf righthandedness to complement whatever currently constitutes their rotation. It boggles the mind that no one else offered a real package for Fister. Instead, Washington adds to its embarrassment of mound riches -- Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detwiler and now Fister. Yowzah.
You may be wondering what all the fuss is about. For a guy standing six-foot-eight, Fister has largely hidden from view of the average fan these past three years. In 2011, his Seattle teammates saddled him with a 3-12 record despite an ERA 13% better than league average and a nearly 3-1 K/BB rate. The W-L record improved to 8-1 after a mid-season trade to Detroit, which Fister followed in 2012 by rocking a 3.7-1 K/BB rate, battling injuries and continuing to pitch well in Justin Verlander's shadow. This past year, he again topped 200 innings of good command, kept his ERA 15% below league average and trailed in Max Scherzer's wake.
The result is that Doug Fister is a top 20 hurler and now he goes to the weaker league without a DH, where he has dominated batters to the tune of a 2.04 ERA. Hope you enjoyed your playoff run, Braves!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The woeful Twins, they of 96 losses fully earned in 2013, have at least begun moving in the right direction. Of course, that's hard not to do when your team's primary attributes are lousy hitting and abysmal pitching.
Said by the cognoscenti to possess MLB's best farm, including a pair of pitchers due for The Show in the next 500 days, the team went shopping for a pair of league-average innings eaters to bolster the studs when they arrive. GM Terry Ryan landed Ricky Nolasco for 4/$60 Million, about the going rate, and then headed to the discount rack for Phil Hughes, 3/$24 Million.
Before you gack up breakfast over a 4-14, 5.19 choker coaxing 24 million guaranteed, consider this: As a flyball righty, Phil Hughes was uniquely qualified to suck in Yankee Stadium, where the rightfield fences beckon, and to succeed at spacious Target Field. Looking deeper at the peripherals, Hughes delivered in his misery-plagued 2013 a nearly identical performance to his All-Star 2010 season when he "won" 18 games. If a handful fewer balls had fallen in for hits last season, he'd be his own twin.
And now he is a Twin. And Minnesota can expect the league-average results Hughes was providing to the Yankees while fans were bamboozled by his W-L record. But those league-average results, worth $15 million-a-year to ink Ricky Nolasco, will cost the franchise just $8 million-a-year on Hughes, thanks to that 4-14, 5.19.
The Twins could still use, well, just about anything but a catcher. Signing a pair of ordinary pitchers with digestible contracts is necessary but insufficient. But as the Buddha said, even a thousand mile journey begins with a single step.
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo didn't even need his ATM card to wrangle #2-level starter Doug Fister from the Tigers for a trio of farmhands whom the experts say are more likely roster-filler than prospects.
It seems to be an artifact of positional glut that teams with one too many (name your position, in this case starting pitcher) often fail to demand equal value in trade. They seem to be settling for the value that the redundant player represented for them, rather than the value he would bring to his new team. The Tigers, flush with the Verlanders and Scherzers of the world, found themselves with six healthy starters and five starter slots.
Perhaps Detroit knows something about Fister that none of the rest of us does and was willing to flip him and the $20 million or so he'll command in his last two years of arbitration for some spare parts. (Or perhaps GM Dave Dombrowski needed to unload 20 big stacks in order to sign closer Joe Nathan.) But one would think the rest of Major League Baseball could use 200 innings of top-shelf righthandedness to complement whatever currently constitutes their rotation. It boggles the mind that no one else offered a real package for Fister. Instead, Washington adds to its embarrassment of mound riches -- Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detwiler and now Fister. Yowzah.
You may be wondering what all the fuss is about. For a guy standing six-foot-eight, Fister has largely hidden from view of the average fan these past three years. In 2011, his Seattle teammates saddled him with a 3-12 record despite an ERA 13% better than league average and a nearly 3-1 K/BB rate. The W-L record improved to 8-1 after a mid-season trade to Detroit, which Fister followed in 2012 by rocking a 3.7-1 K/BB rate, battling injuries and continuing to pitch well in Justin Verlander's shadow. This past year, he again topped 200 innings of good command, kept his ERA 15% below league average and trailed in Max Scherzer's wake.
The result is that Doug Fister is a top 20 hurler and now he goes to the weaker league without a DH, where he has dominated batters to the tune of a 2.04 ERA. Hope you enjoyed your playoff run, Braves!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The woeful Twins, they of 96 losses fully earned in 2013, have at least begun moving in the right direction. Of course, that's hard not to do when your team's primary attributes are lousy hitting and abysmal pitching.
Said by the cognoscenti to possess MLB's best farm, including a pair of pitchers due for The Show in the next 500 days, the team went shopping for a pair of league-average innings eaters to bolster the studs when they arrive. GM Terry Ryan landed Ricky Nolasco for 4/$60 Million, about the going rate, and then headed to the discount rack for Phil Hughes, 3/$24 Million.
Before you gack up breakfast over a 4-14, 5.19 choker coaxing 24 million guaranteed, consider this: As a flyball righty, Phil Hughes was uniquely qualified to suck in Yankee Stadium, where the rightfield fences beckon, and to succeed at spacious Target Field. Looking deeper at the peripherals, Hughes delivered in his misery-plagued 2013 a nearly identical performance to his All-Star 2010 season when he "won" 18 games. If a handful fewer balls had fallen in for hits last season, he'd be his own twin.
And now he is a Twin. And Minnesota can expect the league-average results Hughes was providing to the Yankees while fans were bamboozled by his W-L record. But those league-average results, worth $15 million-a-year to ink Ricky Nolasco, will cost the franchise just $8 million-a-year on Hughes, thanks to that 4-14, 5.19.
The Twins could still use, well, just about anything but a catcher. Signing a pair of ordinary pitchers with digestible contracts is necessary but insufficient. But as the Buddha said, even a thousand mile journey begins with a single step.
16 November 2013
Why the 2014 Pirates = the 2013 Nationals
Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Pirates, winners of 94 games and the Wild Card in 2013. The Bucs ended two decades of futility by exceeding expectations this past season. The good people of the Steel City should pop an Iron City Brew to toast their young team's accomplishment. And then prepare for 2014, when PNC's denizens return to earth.
We've seen this before. Think all the way back to 2012, when a young Washington Nationals team swept to the league's best record with 98 wins. Like the Pirates, the Nats were a year ahead of schedule, but breakouts by their promising franchise players (Harper and Strasburg) coincided with unexpected leaps from veterans (Adam LaRoche and Gio Gonzalez).
In 2013, Gonzalez regressed to form (from 21-8, 2.89 to 11-8, 3.36) and LaRoche fell predictably hard (from .271 BA and 33 home runs to .237 BA and 20 HR). In addition, a Washington bullpen that strangled NL hitters in 2012, allowing a 2.85 ERA, lost much of its effectiveness in 2013, allowing 3.57 earned runs per nine, and the runs allowed seemed to come at the most inopportune times.
The result was that the Nats wavered all spring and summer, and needed a late-season burst to claim 86 wins. A similar fate awaits Pittsburgh in 2014 assuming their roster doesn't change dramatically between now and Opening Day.
For one thing, the Pirates this past season outperformed their profile by six wins. That's a good bit of luck filling their sails that is unlikely to blow next season. Here is a list of other 2013 artifacts they can't expect next year:
1. First baseman Gaby Sanchez will reprise his career high .361 OBP.
2. The bullpen will finish third in baseball in fewest runs allowed.
3. Only one starting player will suffer a serious injury.
4. Andrew McCutchen will win the MVP
5. Marlon Byrd will hit .318/.357/.486 in the final 30 games. (He's signed elsewhere.)
6. Starter Jeff Locke and his 1.49 K/BB ratio will hold opponents to a 3.52 ERA.
7. Jason Grilli's magic carpet ride will continue at age 37.
Some unexpected positives will offset what's above, but even if it all evens out and the entire net loss is due to luck, Jolly Roger wins 88 instead of 94 and misses the playoffs.
Now here's the good news: like the Nationals, the Pirates are built for the long run. Washington will bounce back in 2014 as youth continues to be served and become the World Series favorites many picked them for this year. Assuming the normal progression of its young players and intelligent player acquisition, Pittsburgh will be a contender in 2015. Management in Western Pennsylvania and (to a lesser degree) the District of Columbia have the long view in mind. Fans of the two teams would be wise to adopt the same policy.
We've seen this before. Think all the way back to 2012, when a young Washington Nationals team swept to the league's best record with 98 wins. Like the Pirates, the Nats were a year ahead of schedule, but breakouts by their promising franchise players (Harper and Strasburg) coincided with unexpected leaps from veterans (Adam LaRoche and Gio Gonzalez).
In 2013, Gonzalez regressed to form (from 21-8, 2.89 to 11-8, 3.36) and LaRoche fell predictably hard (from .271 BA and 33 home runs to .237 BA and 20 HR). In addition, a Washington bullpen that strangled NL hitters in 2012, allowing a 2.85 ERA, lost much of its effectiveness in 2013, allowing 3.57 earned runs per nine, and the runs allowed seemed to come at the most inopportune times.
The result was that the Nats wavered all spring and summer, and needed a late-season burst to claim 86 wins. A similar fate awaits Pittsburgh in 2014 assuming their roster doesn't change dramatically between now and Opening Day.
For one thing, the Pirates this past season outperformed their profile by six wins. That's a good bit of luck filling their sails that is unlikely to blow next season. Here is a list of other 2013 artifacts they can't expect next year:
1. First baseman Gaby Sanchez will reprise his career high .361 OBP.
2. The bullpen will finish third in baseball in fewest runs allowed.
3. Only one starting player will suffer a serious injury.
4. Andrew McCutchen will win the MVP
5. Marlon Byrd will hit .318/.357/.486 in the final 30 games. (He's signed elsewhere.)
6. Starter Jeff Locke and his 1.49 K/BB ratio will hold opponents to a 3.52 ERA.
7. Jason Grilli's magic carpet ride will continue at age 37.
Some unexpected positives will offset what's above, but even if it all evens out and the entire net loss is due to luck, Jolly Roger wins 88 instead of 94 and misses the playoffs.
Now here's the good news: like the Nationals, the Pirates are built for the long run. Washington will bounce back in 2014 as youth continues to be served and become the World Series favorites many picked them for this year. Assuming the normal progression of its young players and intelligent player acquisition, Pittsburgh will be a contender in 2015. Management in Western Pennsylvania and (to a lesser degree) the District of Columbia have the long view in mind. Fans of the two teams would be wise to adopt the same policy.
11 May 2013
The Bronx: The Place to Be
Had you examined the Washington Nationals a week ago, when they were scuffling with the .500 monster, you'd have seen a team of all upside. Lady Luck hadn't been kind to Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, and Dan Haren's sub-replacement activities screamed "$13 million wasted!"
The non-Bryce division of the offense had been flirting with Mario Mendoza and poked just 11 more homers than their left-fielder alone. Expensive first baseman re-signee, Adam LaRoche had been out-hit by some pitchers. Second base had been a black hole of offense.
And yet, after four wins in five games, the Nats have moved within hailing distance of first place. A few switch-flips later -- LaRoche is a notoriously streaky batter -- and Washington, no longer first in war or peace, can again be first in the NL East.
As for the AL East, Las Vegas bookmakers are hiding under their desks. In a year in which the Red Sox were rebuilding, the Yankees were taking a luxury cap-induced hiatus and the Orioles were falling to earth -- they weren't! The three teams are tied for the top of the toughest division with .600+ winning percentages.
Boston and Baltimore are pounding the ball -- can you say Daniel Nava? Chris Davis? And the Yankees, well.
After Robby Cano, New York's top offensive performers are all placeholders -- Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Francisco Cervelli, Ichiro Suzuki. Their starting staff, with the sole exception of Ivan Nova, is clamping down on opponents while the Sandman warms up his Hall of Fame arm. Having lost a virtual All-Star team to the DL, New York is somehow still exercising its Manifest Destiny to the top of the standings.
The Bombers lost 164 home runs to free agency and injury in the off-season and yet still lead the AL in that category. Fulltime DH Travis Hafner, one of the many reclamation projects on the roster, deserves some of the credit. Pronk is the most dramatic example of once-productive players who fell into the Yankees' arms and have delivered this season.
A superstar slugger for three years mid-decade, Hafner has struggled to stay on the field since 2008. This year, at age 36 but without a defensive position to concern him, he has so far avoided injury and pounded out a .284/.408/.568 performance for the Yankees.
It's a similar story for 34-year-old Vernon Wells. With his massive salary off-loaded to Toronto and Anaheim, New York is getting the performance. Filling in for a host of injured outfielders, Wells has delivered with the glove and the wood, hitting .294/.346/.504.
Even better, these senior citizens won't have to over-perform all season. When Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira return, Joe Girardi will send Hafner, Wells and their compadres back to spot duty.
If it can ever be a good time to live in the Bronx, now is the time. Come the All-Star break, the home nine will improve dramatically. Disappointing Tampa and Toronto can be expected to do the same, but they have ground to make up. Boston and Baltimore, who are square with the Yankees now, will need to make trading deadline moves to keep up.
Yep, the Bronx: it's the place to be.
The non-Bryce division of the offense had been flirting with Mario Mendoza and poked just 11 more homers than their left-fielder alone. Expensive first baseman re-signee, Adam LaRoche had been out-hit by some pitchers. Second base had been a black hole of offense.
And yet, after four wins in five games, the Nats have moved within hailing distance of first place. A few switch-flips later -- LaRoche is a notoriously streaky batter -- and Washington, no longer first in war or peace, can again be first in the NL East.
As for the AL East, Las Vegas bookmakers are hiding under their desks. In a year in which the Red Sox were rebuilding, the Yankees were taking a luxury cap-induced hiatus and the Orioles were falling to earth -- they weren't! The three teams are tied for the top of the toughest division with .600+ winning percentages.
Boston and Baltimore are pounding the ball -- can you say Daniel Nava? Chris Davis? And the Yankees, well.
After Robby Cano, New York's top offensive performers are all placeholders -- Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Francisco Cervelli, Ichiro Suzuki. Their starting staff, with the sole exception of Ivan Nova, is clamping down on opponents while the Sandman warms up his Hall of Fame arm. Having lost a virtual All-Star team to the DL, New York is somehow still exercising its Manifest Destiny to the top of the standings.
The Bombers lost 164 home runs to free agency and injury in the off-season and yet still lead the AL in that category. Fulltime DH Travis Hafner, one of the many reclamation projects on the roster, deserves some of the credit. Pronk is the most dramatic example of once-productive players who fell into the Yankees' arms and have delivered this season.
A superstar slugger for three years mid-decade, Hafner has struggled to stay on the field since 2008. This year, at age 36 but without a defensive position to concern him, he has so far avoided injury and pounded out a .284/.408/.568 performance for the Yankees.
It's a similar story for 34-year-old Vernon Wells. With his massive salary off-loaded to Toronto and Anaheim, New York is getting the performance. Filling in for a host of injured outfielders, Wells has delivered with the glove and the wood, hitting .294/.346/.504.
Even better, these senior citizens won't have to over-perform all season. When Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira return, Joe Girardi will send Hafner, Wells and their compadres back to spot duty.
If it can ever be a good time to live in the Bronx, now is the time. Come the All-Star break, the home nine will improve dramatically. Disappointing Tampa and Toronto can be expected to do the same, but they have ground to make up. Boston and Baltimore, who are square with the Yankees now, will need to make trading deadline moves to keep up.
Yep, the Bronx: it's the place to be.
22 August 2009
$15 Million Worth of Slavery
The dust has cleared on the Stephen Strasburg signing and thankfully so, because the only thing worse than Scott Boras waxing self-righteous about the injustice of the baseball draft is Scott Boras justifiably waxing self-righteous about the baseball draft.
Baseball's amateur draft (like its football, basketball and hockey counterparts) is collusion among legal monopolists focused on reducing labor costs. I can't blame any agent for trying to bust up a system that deprives his clients of millions of dollars.
When foreign players make their services available, MLB teams bid the ranch for them, so we know what valuable properties like Strasburg are worth to them. The draft is a mechanism for limiting risk and preventing the Strasburgs from commanding those fees.
But you won't find me bemoaning the fate of prospects who can't rake in the millions before they've even made a Double-A lineup. Players who demonstrate that they are worth the money eventually get it. It's hard to cry "indentured servitude" about employees whose apprenticeships only return a half-million dollars per annum.
Principle is not the reason that Strasburg "settled" for $15.1 million. He pushed his negotiations as far as he could and cashed in at the moment his leverage was about to crater. Had he not signed in '09, there's no guarantee that anyone would give him what he wanted in '10...or ever. In that time, his arm could go limp or some Venezuelan in an independent league could clang a fastball back off his cranium and -- poof! -- there goes Mr. Payday, out the door with Ms. Health Insurance.
Principle may be Scott Boras's bag, knowing that a talent like Strasburg could command double in a real free market. Boras has future clients and a long time horizon to consider, but Stephen Strasburg does not. That's why the Nationals brass are correctly considering the fattest contract for a drafted player to have been a victory for them: they got their man and didn't have to break up the cartel.
b
Baseball's amateur draft (like its football, basketball and hockey counterparts) is collusion among legal monopolists focused on reducing labor costs. I can't blame any agent for trying to bust up a system that deprives his clients of millions of dollars.
When foreign players make their services available, MLB teams bid the ranch for them, so we know what valuable properties like Strasburg are worth to them. The draft is a mechanism for limiting risk and preventing the Strasburgs from commanding those fees.
But you won't find me bemoaning the fate of prospects who can't rake in the millions before they've even made a Double-A lineup. Players who demonstrate that they are worth the money eventually get it. It's hard to cry "indentured servitude" about employees whose apprenticeships only return a half-million dollars per annum.
Principle is not the reason that Strasburg "settled" for $15.1 million. He pushed his negotiations as far as he could and cashed in at the moment his leverage was about to crater. Had he not signed in '09, there's no guarantee that anyone would give him what he wanted in '10...or ever. In that time, his arm could go limp or some Venezuelan in an independent league could clang a fastball back off his cranium and -- poof! -- there goes Mr. Payday, out the door with Ms. Health Insurance.
Principle may be Scott Boras's bag, knowing that a talent like Strasburg could command double in a real free market. Boras has future clients and a long time horizon to consider, but Stephen Strasburg does not. That's why the Nationals brass are correctly considering the fattest contract for a drafted player to have been a victory for them: they got their man and didn't have to break up the cartel.
b
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