Blowin' In the Wind

About a year ago I addressed Mark Reynolds' future, pointing out how hard it is for a wind turbine like him to be a productive hitter. In a nutshell, a guy who strikes out 200 times a year has eliminated a third of his opportunities to create a positive result. That means he has to be wildly productive in those remaining plate appearances.

This year, that's exactly what he's doing. So far in 2009, the Diamondbacks third baseman has stepped to the plate 487 times. He's whiffed on 158 occasions, about a third of the time and on pace to break his own K record of 204 set last year.

In the remaining 335 plate appearances, Reynolds has walked 59 times and been hit by four pitches, leaving 268 at bats. For Reynolds to achieve even a mediocre .250 batting average, he has to hit .396 in those non-strikeout situations. (This is a statistic that is regularly kept these days -- BABIP -- batting average on balls in play.)

In 2009 Reynolds has passed that exam with flying colors. He is hitting a whacky .451 on balls in play. Moreover, 37 of those 122 hits have been home runs. When he makes contact, Mark Reynolds has a one in seven chance of banging one out. That's pretty historic, even given the dinger-friendly contours of the BoB.

For the year, Reynolds' line is .285/.376/.603, a level that would put him in the MVP discussion on an alien planet that contained no Albert Pujols. Of course, the big question is whether an otherworldly .451 BABIP is sustainable. The answer is no. And yes.

Ordinarily, when you see that a player is hitting .451 on balls in play, you are staring into a crystal ball flashing "regression alert!" Most hitters live around the .333 mark, and anything far outside that is a reflection of luck more than skill. But Mark Reynolds is not any player. Obviously, he is swinging for the fences every time he bats. The two consequences of this approach are that he fans at a record-breaking rate and he crushes the ball when he does make contact. Hitting the ball hard is the formula for getting hits.

Reynolds' first two seasons presage these results. He hit .430 and .395 on balls in play in '07 and '08, walking and homering at lower rates. His approach has been consistent and he's improved a little. That, his age (26) and his build (athletic, not stocky) are good signs for his future. Mark Reynolds can be a very good hitter for much of the next decade even while stirring up the breeze.
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