15 August 2009

Taking Offense in the East

When you add a healthy Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon on a 30-HR pace and Robby Cano's Dr. Jekyll side to a lineup of Texeira, Rodriguez and Jeter, it doesn't matter how many Nick Swishers or Brett Gardners nose their way into the lineup, you're going to be near the lead in the Majors in run scoring. And if you can get plus performances out of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes behind mercenaries Sabathia and Burnett, well, it's no surprise that you've got the best record in the game.

The truth is, the Yankees can ride that rocket ship lineup to the playoffs even without much pitching and defense. They're on pace to score 100 more runs than anyone else in the division, which leaves a lot of leeway in the field.

Look at the Equivalent Averages for the Yankees starters: (EQA condenses offensive production, including baserunning, into one number that looks like a batting average. It is adjusted for home park.)
Texeira .312
Damon .304
Rodriguez .304
Jeter .295
Matsui .295
Swisher .293
Posada .291
Cano .287
Cabrera .266

In other words, the entire lineup is above average, and the second weakest link is one of the top three second basemen in the league.

The Yankees may or may not run away with the division. That's entirely up to the Red Sox. And if you're wondering what's wrong with the Red Sox, here's the answer: nothing.

Oh sure, the Sox have done less hitting since the All-Star break than a Quaker, and several of their pitching hopes have flamed out. All of which is a testament to Theo Epstein's construction of the team. With a working premise that you never really know about your pitching, Boston stockpiled hurlers. They have withstood the Smoltz and Matsuzaka disasters, Wakefield getting hurt, Brad (Hardly Worth A) Penny and other rotation failures to post the best overall pitching in the AL.

The fields have gone fallow lately on the offensive side, which is why mixing Victor Martinez into the Lowell/Youkilis/Kotchman rotation makes so much sense, even if it looks like overkill. What would really improve the Red Sox would be the benching of their two beloved deadweights -- David Ortiz and Jason Varitek.

Ortiz had his last great gasp in June, when he batted over .300 and smacked a string of home runs. Even including those four good weeks, his .221/.310/.411 production is inadequate for a speedy middle-infield gloveman, much less a Brontosaurus DH.

Tek started the season with his hair on fire, but he's cooled and mortified since then to .222/.333/.441. Throw in the black hole at shortstop and the Sox trot out three empty batting spots against the likes of division foes Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia and Matt Garza. That's not getting it done.

Boston still leads the Wild Card race and can be a serious threat in the playoffs. They have to parlay all that depth into a better lineup. And they have to wait for lack of depth to catch up to everyone else.
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