"There's nothing I hate worse than nothing. Nothing keeps me up at night. I toss and turn over nothing. Nothing could cause a great big fight." Edie Brickell & the New Bohemians
Energized by the all-in importation of cast-off stars, the Toronto Blue Jays lost 88 games and finished in the AL East cellar last season. So in the off-season, GM Alex Anthopoulos evaluated his squad, surveyed the landscape, and decided that his work was done.
Sure, he upgraded a woeful catching corps by inking Dioner Navarro and a couple of moundsmen, including Tomo Ohka, whose last good season was with Montreal. But aside from that, these are your father's Toronto Blue Jays.
Canadians had to be wondering whether the club was short on loonies or just complacent. Now a third of the way through 2014 they're deciding whether Anthopoulos is brilliant or lucky to be sitting comfortably atop the AL East.
I'd vote for smart. Anthopoulos was counting on the pogo stick effect, the same one that gave us the 1991 Twins, the 2012 Giants and, in reverse, the 2013 Nationals and 2014 Pirates.
The theory is simple and familiar. Uber-talented teams that vastly under-perform for reasons other than age are likely to bounce back the following year. Lightly-talented clubs that over-perform have the same tendency, in reverse.
The '87 and '88 Twins won their division, but scuffled with the same core lineup in '89 and '90. Still anchored by Hrbeck, Puckett, Gagne, Gene Larkin and catcher Brian Harper, Minnesota rebounded in '91 and won the most dramatic World Series in baseball history. In the interim, GM Andy McPhail had overhauled the pitching but left the lineup alone on the expectation that they would deliver according to their talent.
The Giants, repeat champs in 2012, slumped badly in '13 and altered virtually nothing, en route to baseball's best record thus far. Only two regulars are different: Tim Hudson replaced Barry Zito in the rotation (duh.) and Mike Morse stepped in when Melky Cabrera bolted.
The Nats flipped the paradigm when they finally busted out with the Majors' best record from their raw young talent in 2012 following years of futility. Management had expected another year of youth an inexperience that year and got it instead in 2013, when Washington danced around .500 most of the season.
A similar scenario was sketched out for the Pirates this year in this space, and they are delivering. They broke out with 94 wins a year early and are paying the piper this season.
Which brings us to the Blue Jays. They reeled in too much talent in 2013 -- to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion they added Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera -- to fail for long. Though Johnson has flamed out and Dickey has failed to live up to billing, the rest of the crew is performing admirably (so far.)
The Jays have hit a rough patch in the last week and there's still plenty of time for the wheels to come off. But their success so far isn't a shock if you look at the names in the lineup. It shows that sometimes the best course of action, even following failure, is nothing.
15 June 2014
11 June 2014
R.I.P. Bob Welch. But Can We Have Your Cy Young Back?
It's very sad news that former Dodger and A's Bob Welch died of a sudden heart attack on Tuesday, way too young. Welch's untimely death is another sad reminder how fortunate we all are to have the luxury to obsess about things, like games, that don't really matter.
Welch enjoyed a stellar 17-year career in which he got credit for 211 wins, twirled 28 shutouts, fanned nearly 2000 batters, pitched in four World Series and eight league championship series, and earned 44 wins against replacement.
Bob Welch will best be remembered for the 1978 World Series showdown with Reggie Jackson in which he whiffed Mr. October on nothing but heaters. It's often forgotten that Jackson earned revenge with hits later in the Series -- and so did the Yankees -- sweeping the last four games for the championship.
The other claim to fame for the former first-round pick out of Eastern Michigan was his 1990 Cy Young for a 27-5, 2.95 season. No other pitcher has notched as many wins in the last 42 years.
Today, of course, we're not so easily romanced by big win totals. Examining Welch's record more deeply, it begins to deteriorate.
First, he pitched for a 103-win squad in the offensive sinkhole in Oakland. And that ERA -- 25% below league average back before steroids were prevalent -- is artificially sweetened by 12 unearned runs. His 3.40 RA is somewhat less impressive.
Welch also issued 77 walks, fanned just 127 and surrendered 26 home runs. Today we know that profile is more like a 4.19 ERA performance but for Lady Luck's accompaniment, which dampened opponents' batting average on balls in play to the unwhistleable tune of .255.
He received six or more runs of support in 13 of his appearances and fewer than three runs just thrice. And he pitched 27 of his 35 starts against sub-.500 teams. In other words, the stars aligned in every conceivable way for Bob Welch that year, transforming a good pitcher into a 27-game winner.
In fact, Bob Welch was the 12th best starter in the American League that season, worth just three wins above replacement. The writers seemed to understand that when they voted Roger Clemens third in the MVP race for his 21-6, 1.93 dominance with 228 strikeouts. Clemens earned 10.6 WAR for his efforts -- more than three times as much as Welch, who finished ninth in the MVP balloting.
In addition to Clemens, Welch's teammate Dave Stewart (22-11, 2.56), the Angels' Chuck Finley (18-9, 2.40) and Bobby Witt (17-10, 3.36), KC's Kevin Appier (12-8, 2.76), Toronto's Dave Stieb (18-6, 2.93) and David Wells (11-6, 3.14), Seattle's Erik Hanson (18-9, 3.24), Boston's Mike Boddicker (17-8, 3.36), the White Sox' Greg Hibbard (14-9, 3.16) and Nolan Ryan of Texas (13-9, 3.44) are all credited today with superior seasons.
In fact, 1990 wasn't nearly Bob Welch's best season. He posted lower ERAs three times in his career and achieved higher WAR four times, but without the gaudy win totals. In those days, all of baseballdom confused (okay, Bill James and a few acolytes didn't) the arbitrary assignment of pitcher wins as vessels of significance. We know better today. I just wish Bob Welch were around to discuss it.
Welch enjoyed a stellar 17-year career in which he got credit for 211 wins, twirled 28 shutouts, fanned nearly 2000 batters, pitched in four World Series and eight league championship series, and earned 44 wins against replacement.
Bob Welch will best be remembered for the 1978 World Series showdown with Reggie Jackson in which he whiffed Mr. October on nothing but heaters. It's often forgotten that Jackson earned revenge with hits later in the Series -- and so did the Yankees -- sweeping the last four games for the championship.
The other claim to fame for the former first-round pick out of Eastern Michigan was his 1990 Cy Young for a 27-5, 2.95 season. No other pitcher has notched as many wins in the last 42 years.
Today, of course, we're not so easily romanced by big win totals. Examining Welch's record more deeply, it begins to deteriorate.
First, he pitched for a 103-win squad in the offensive sinkhole in Oakland. And that ERA -- 25% below league average back before steroids were prevalent -- is artificially sweetened by 12 unearned runs. His 3.40 RA is somewhat less impressive.
Welch also issued 77 walks, fanned just 127 and surrendered 26 home runs. Today we know that profile is more like a 4.19 ERA performance but for Lady Luck's accompaniment, which dampened opponents' batting average on balls in play to the unwhistleable tune of .255.
He received six or more runs of support in 13 of his appearances and fewer than three runs just thrice. And he pitched 27 of his 35 starts against sub-.500 teams. In other words, the stars aligned in every conceivable way for Bob Welch that year, transforming a good pitcher into a 27-game winner.
In fact, Bob Welch was the 12th best starter in the American League that season, worth just three wins above replacement. The writers seemed to understand that when they voted Roger Clemens third in the MVP race for his 21-6, 1.93 dominance with 228 strikeouts. Clemens earned 10.6 WAR for his efforts -- more than three times as much as Welch, who finished ninth in the MVP balloting.
In addition to Clemens, Welch's teammate Dave Stewart (22-11, 2.56), the Angels' Chuck Finley (18-9, 2.40) and Bobby Witt (17-10, 3.36), KC's Kevin Appier (12-8, 2.76), Toronto's Dave Stieb (18-6, 2.93) and David Wells (11-6, 3.14), Seattle's Erik Hanson (18-9, 3.24), Boston's Mike Boddicker (17-8, 3.36), the White Sox' Greg Hibbard (14-9, 3.16) and Nolan Ryan of Texas (13-9, 3.44) are all credited today with superior seasons.
In fact, 1990 wasn't nearly Bob Welch's best season. He posted lower ERAs three times in his career and achieved higher WAR four times, but without the gaudy win totals. In those days, all of baseballdom confused (okay, Bill James and a few acolytes didn't) the arbitrary assignment of pitcher wins as vessels of significance. We know better today. I just wish Bob Welch were around to discuss it.
08 June 2014
Is This A Great Game, Or What?
With apologies, well actually, in homage to Tim Kurkjian, is this a great game, or what?
Twenty-fourteen is shaping up as another utterly implausible season that is nonetheless occurring. In this game, the impossible is commonplace.
In the NBA, last year's championship combatants, to no one's surprise, are this year reconvening in the title series. In MLB, last year's champs occupy next-to-last place, just ahead of a 2013 playoff team.
The 2013 kings of the NL are scuffling along at .500, five game behind a club in baseball's smallest market (Milwaukee) that last season dropped 88 games.
The best reliever in the American League this year is the throw-in to the 2013 Wil Myers-James Sheilds trade between Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Wade Davis has allowed just 11 hits and four runs in 27 innings for the Royals. None of the hits is for extra bases. This is all perfectly understandable, as AL hitters battered Davis for a 5.32 ERA last season.
On the other hand, all-world starter Justin Verlander has fanned just 60 in 86 frames and sports a thoroughly average W-L record, ERA, K/BB rate and hit rate. Who saw that coming?
Who saw steroid user Nelson Cruz returning from suspension even better than when he was juicing? He leads the league in HR (20) and OPS (1.025) for the Orioles, so what were the drugs all about?
Not only didn't we see Met pitcher Jacob de Grom coming, we didn't see him batting .556/.600/.667 a third of the way into the season. His 1.267 OPS is higher than outfielders Chris Young's and Eric Young's combined.
Whose crystal ball had the 94-win Pirates scrambling to reach .500 despite good health? Okay, ours did. But we didn't predict the Rays would be dusting off David Price's for-sale sign by June or that the mini-payroll A's would clinch the West before the All-Star break in front of teams (Texas and Anaheim) that that own Federal Reserve Banks.
The Midas-touched Rays have lost 39 games, worst in the Majors and a number they hadn't suffered last year until a month later. The A's are winning with widespread goodness -- sort of like Switzerland. Not a single Oakland batter is hitting .300, but they're scoring five runs a game.
The long-forsaken Blue Jays -- last year's colossal flop -- are running away with the AL East thanks almost entirely to three players -- Buehrle, Bautista and Encarnacion. If you selected Buehrle as a high-round fantasy pick there are nine guys no longer laughing at you.
Last year, Troy Tulowitzki batted .312, earned an All-Star berth and snagged MVP votes for the five-plus wins against replacement he provided the Rockies. In the first third of this season, he's already produced 90% of that value while leading the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average and runs scored.
Tampa Bay's James Loney has never been a long ball guy, but he legged out 15 triples his first three years, despite mostly part-time play. The next three seasons he collected five triples, in full-time play. In the three years since, he has yet to notch a triple. What a game.
Indians catcher/DH Carlos Santana collected MVP votes last season. This year he's on pace to walk 143 times. Good thing, because he's batting .171. Why don't they throw him strikes? They should take back the MVP votes this year.
Outfielder Seth Smith only once in his career hit better than .284/.347/.483, and that was in Denver's thin air. Now in the worst offensive park in the Majors, he's hitting .302/.405/.587. Wacky.
Houston's Dallas Keuchel entered the season with a .520 ERA. In 2014 he's doubled his K/BB ratio and cut his ERA in half. A below replacement pitcher coming into the season, he's added 3.4 wins to the Astros in 2014. And you could have had him for a buck in your fantasy league draft.
Flipside: The Bucs' Francisco Liriano anchored the rotation last season with a 16-8, 3.02 performance. He allowed nine home runs all year. This year, he's an anchor, all right. He's 1-6, 4.54 with seven jacks allowed.
How can this all be? Because it's baseball. Is this a great game, or what?
Twenty-fourteen is shaping up as another utterly implausible season that is nonetheless occurring. In this game, the impossible is commonplace.
In the NBA, last year's championship combatants, to no one's surprise, are this year reconvening in the title series. In MLB, last year's champs occupy next-to-last place, just ahead of a 2013 playoff team.
The 2013 kings of the NL are scuffling along at .500, five game behind a club in baseball's smallest market (Milwaukee) that last season dropped 88 games.
The best reliever in the American League this year is the throw-in to the 2013 Wil Myers-James Sheilds trade between Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Wade Davis has allowed just 11 hits and four runs in 27 innings for the Royals. None of the hits is for extra bases. This is all perfectly understandable, as AL hitters battered Davis for a 5.32 ERA last season.
On the other hand, all-world starter Justin Verlander has fanned just 60 in 86 frames and sports a thoroughly average W-L record, ERA, K/BB rate and hit rate. Who saw that coming?
Who saw steroid user Nelson Cruz returning from suspension even better than when he was juicing? He leads the league in HR (20) and OPS (1.025) for the Orioles, so what were the drugs all about?
Not only didn't we see Met pitcher Jacob de Grom coming, we didn't see him batting .556/.600/.667 a third of the way into the season. His 1.267 OPS is higher than outfielders Chris Young's and Eric Young's combined.
Whose crystal ball had the 94-win Pirates scrambling to reach .500 despite good health? Okay, ours did. But we didn't predict the Rays would be dusting off David Price's for-sale sign by June or that the mini-payroll A's would clinch the West before the All-Star break in front of teams (Texas and Anaheim) that that own Federal Reserve Banks.
The Midas-touched Rays have lost 39 games, worst in the Majors and a number they hadn't suffered last year until a month later. The A's are winning with widespread goodness -- sort of like Switzerland. Not a single Oakland batter is hitting .300, but they're scoring five runs a game.
The long-forsaken Blue Jays -- last year's colossal flop -- are running away with the AL East thanks almost entirely to three players -- Buehrle, Bautista and Encarnacion. If you selected Buehrle as a high-round fantasy pick there are nine guys no longer laughing at you.
Last year, Troy Tulowitzki batted .312, earned an All-Star berth and snagged MVP votes for the five-plus wins against replacement he provided the Rockies. In the first third of this season, he's already produced 90% of that value while leading the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average and runs scored.
Tampa Bay's James Loney has never been a long ball guy, but he legged out 15 triples his first three years, despite mostly part-time play. The next three seasons he collected five triples, in full-time play. In the three years since, he has yet to notch a triple. What a game.
Indians catcher/DH Carlos Santana collected MVP votes last season. This year he's on pace to walk 143 times. Good thing, because he's batting .171. Why don't they throw him strikes? They should take back the MVP votes this year.
Outfielder Seth Smith only once in his career hit better than .284/.347/.483, and that was in Denver's thin air. Now in the worst offensive park in the Majors, he's hitting .302/.405/.587. Wacky.
Houston's Dallas Keuchel entered the season with a .520 ERA. In 2014 he's doubled his K/BB ratio and cut his ERA in half. A below replacement pitcher coming into the season, he's added 3.4 wins to the Astros in 2014. And you could have had him for a buck in your fantasy league draft.
Flipside: The Bucs' Francisco Liriano anchored the rotation last season with a 16-8, 3.02 performance. He allowed nine home runs all year. This year, he's an anchor, all right. He's 1-6, 4.54 with seven jacks allowed.
How can this all be? Because it's baseball. Is this a great game, or what?
04 June 2014
My Future for 10 Million Bucks? Where Do I Sign?
Whatever else you want to say about Jon Singleton, he's a millionaire ten times over.
Singleton is a 22-year-old, 6'2", 255-pound behemoth called up to play first base this week by the Astros after he agreed to a team-friendly deal that guarantees him $10 million over the next five years and could lock him up for another three at well-below market rates.
Singleton was battering Triple-A pitching while Houston first basemen were making their own Triple-A case. The team offered Singleton the contract with the proviso that he would get promoted if he signed.
Teams have lately offered these risk-reward deals to their prospects before they reached arbitration. Offering it pre-promotion is the next logical step.
If this deal appears weighted towards the club for a phenom there are two good reasons for it. One is that there are holes in Singleton's swing. He may very well exit the yard his share of times but struggle to put distance between himself and the Mendoza line.
Another is that the California high school product is an admitted pot addict who returned from rehab last year in worse shape than when he entered. He may have been selling low on his own stock.
Why do it then? Because the call-up to the Bigs was contingent on a contract. Give Houston brass credit for working the system. The Astros aren't going to compete this year, so they weren't in any hurry to promote their best farmhands.
Of course, as with all such deals, Singleton has eight figures to put in the bank if it all comes apart, and 35 of these millions if it all works out. That's a pretty good fallback plan for a youth with a spotty record.
Singleton is a 22-year-old, 6'2", 255-pound behemoth called up to play first base this week by the Astros after he agreed to a team-friendly deal that guarantees him $10 million over the next five years and could lock him up for another three at well-below market rates.
Singleton was battering Triple-A pitching while Houston first basemen were making their own Triple-A case. The team offered Singleton the contract with the proviso that he would get promoted if he signed.
Teams have lately offered these risk-reward deals to their prospects before they reached arbitration. Offering it pre-promotion is the next logical step.
If this deal appears weighted towards the club for a phenom there are two good reasons for it. One is that there are holes in Singleton's swing. He may very well exit the yard his share of times but struggle to put distance between himself and the Mendoza line.
Another is that the California high school product is an admitted pot addict who returned from rehab last year in worse shape than when he entered. He may have been selling low on his own stock.
Why do it then? Because the call-up to the Bigs was contingent on a contract. Give Houston brass credit for working the system. The Astros aren't going to compete this year, so they weren't in any hurry to promote their best farmhands.
Of course, as with all such deals, Singleton has eight figures to put in the bank if it all comes apart, and 35 of these millions if it all works out. That's a pretty good fallback plan for a youth with a spotty record.
03 June 2014
Getting Rougned Up By Unwritten Rules
With a .730 OPS, Rangers’ rookie second baseman Rougned
Odor (pronounced: Roog-ned. No kidding.) is the greatest “Rougned” in baseball history. He’s also the greatest
“odor” since Willie Stargell brought air fresheners into the Pirates clubhouse
in 1979.
Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion not only tied the record for homers in May with 16, he also did a little Joe DiMaggio imitation, fanning just 14 times. David Lough laid down a similar stat line, except the first number represents hits. (Kidding: Lough doesn’t hit that well.)
Twins’ Phil Hughes has blossomed since leaving the Bronx. He pitched six starts without a walk before offering a pair against the Yankees in a June 1 win. That pumped his record to 6-1, 3.12 with 56 K/8 BB. And now he’s even got a win in the Bronx under his belt.
“Unwritten rules apply to the other team.” –Eric Karros, in an exalted Zen state.
For the third time in his career, Adam Wainwright leads the league in wins, and that doesn’t even include his 20-win season. Pitcher wins don’t mean much, but they don’t mean nothing. In his case, a lifetime 107-60 record reflects the fact that he’s an effective workhorse, with a lifetime 3.07 ERA. The only thing keeping him from a Hall path is a late start to his career and TJ surgery that robbed him of 2011 and limited his effectiveness in 2012.
Still in the “pitcher wins don’t mean nothing” meme, Toronto’s Mark Buerhle leads the AL with a 10-1 record, notching his 14th straight 10+ win season. All but once he won at least 12. Soft-tossing Buerhle is also vying for his 14th straight 200+ inning season. At his current rate – which is unsustainable, particularly because he’s allowed just two home runs despite just five whiffs per game – he’ll finish 27-3, 2.33 in 220 innings and all of 129 strikeouts. I’d like to see it.
On the other hand, Jeff Samardzija leads the Majors with a 1.68 ERA for the Cubs, but it took him 11 starts to get his first win. Just putting pitcher wins in perspective.
Charlie Blackmon update: Still hitting .313 with some power, but it’s a mirage at this point. It’s Colorado-fueled (OPS 500 points lower on the road) and mostly the legacy of a .374/.418/.616 April. Blackmon looks like a big lefty who can hit for decent average and occasional pop, and play anywhere in the outfield. And he rocks a sharp beard.
June 22 is Coco Crisp Garden Gnome day at the O.Co Coliseum. Tickets are plentiful. (C'mon, have you seen that sewer of a stadium?)
Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion not only tied the record for homers in May with 16, he also did a little Joe DiMaggio imitation, fanning just 14 times. David Lough laid down a similar stat line, except the first number represents hits. (Kidding: Lough doesn’t hit that well.)
Twins’ Phil Hughes has blossomed since leaving the Bronx. He pitched six starts without a walk before offering a pair against the Yankees in a June 1 win. That pumped his record to 6-1, 3.12 with 56 K/8 BB. And now he’s even got a win in the Bronx under his belt.
“Unwritten rules apply to the other team.” –Eric Karros, in an exalted Zen state.
For the third time in his career, Adam Wainwright leads the league in wins, and that doesn’t even include his 20-win season. Pitcher wins don’t mean much, but they don’t mean nothing. In his case, a lifetime 107-60 record reflects the fact that he’s an effective workhorse, with a lifetime 3.07 ERA. The only thing keeping him from a Hall path is a late start to his career and TJ surgery that robbed him of 2011 and limited his effectiveness in 2012.
Still in the “pitcher wins don’t mean nothing” meme, Toronto’s Mark Buerhle leads the AL with a 10-1 record, notching his 14th straight 10+ win season. All but once he won at least 12. Soft-tossing Buerhle is also vying for his 14th straight 200+ inning season. At his current rate – which is unsustainable, particularly because he’s allowed just two home runs despite just five whiffs per game – he’ll finish 27-3, 2.33 in 220 innings and all of 129 strikeouts. I’d like to see it.
On the other hand, Jeff Samardzija leads the Majors with a 1.68 ERA for the Cubs, but it took him 11 starts to get his first win. Just putting pitcher wins in perspective.
Charlie Blackmon update: Still hitting .313 with some power, but it’s a mirage at this point. It’s Colorado-fueled (OPS 500 points lower on the road) and mostly the legacy of a .374/.418/.616 April. Blackmon looks like a big lefty who can hit for decent average and occasional pop, and play anywhere in the outfield. And he rocks a sharp beard.
June 22 is Coco Crisp Garden Gnome day at the O.Co Coliseum. Tickets are plentiful. (C'mon, have you seen that sewer of a stadium?)
01 June 2014
Another Team Icon Makes His Last Stand in 2014
While the baseball world is busy waving farewell to Derek Jeter, another icon is making his way off the stage without the fanfare or the parting gifts.
Paul Konerko came up with the Dodgers and was traded to the Reds in his second season, but has played all but 75 of his 2300 games with the Chicago White Sox over an 18-year career. Now 38, "Paulie" has been reduced to part-time status befitting a first baseman who has lost his big bat.
Konerko has smacked 436 career bombs and driven home 1400 for the ChiSox, earning six All-Star berths and MVP votes following five seasons. He's topped 30 HR seven times and 100 RBI six times with two other seasons of 99 and 97 runs driven in. His career .844 OPS without speed or defense suggests a good player who is no threat to enter Cooperstown.
Konerko's best season was 2010, at age 34, when he went .312/.393/.584 with 39 HR, career bests at OBP and SLG. Since then, his OPS has declined dramatically each year, to the point that last year he was costing the team wins. He signed a one-year "last hurrah" $2.5 million deal this year so he could take a victory lap in Second City, but has mostly played bench warmer, hitting .171 in half-time duty with two homers.
Of course, in another sense, his career year was '05, at age 29, when he went yard 40 times and led the ChiSox to 99 victories and a World Series sweep of Houston. Without question, Paulie was the heart and soul of that championship team, which boasted few other stars -- Mark Buerhle and the last wisps of Frank Thomas about the only other notable contributors.
Konerko's big bat and quiet leadership are beloved on the South side and about the only things, besides perhaps another Stanley Cup, the city will have to celebrate this summer. So a tip of the cap to Paul Konerko. Consider this homage your parting gift.
Well, that and $130 million lifetime earnings.
Paul Konerko came up with the Dodgers and was traded to the Reds in his second season, but has played all but 75 of his 2300 games with the Chicago White Sox over an 18-year career. Now 38, "Paulie" has been reduced to part-time status befitting a first baseman who has lost his big bat.
Konerko has smacked 436 career bombs and driven home 1400 for the ChiSox, earning six All-Star berths and MVP votes following five seasons. He's topped 30 HR seven times and 100 RBI six times with two other seasons of 99 and 97 runs driven in. His career .844 OPS without speed or defense suggests a good player who is no threat to enter Cooperstown.
Konerko's best season was 2010, at age 34, when he went .312/.393/.584 with 39 HR, career bests at OBP and SLG. Since then, his OPS has declined dramatically each year, to the point that last year he was costing the team wins. He signed a one-year "last hurrah" $2.5 million deal this year so he could take a victory lap in Second City, but has mostly played bench warmer, hitting .171 in half-time duty with two homers.
Of course, in another sense, his career year was '05, at age 29, when he went yard 40 times and led the ChiSox to 99 victories and a World Series sweep of Houston. Without question, Paulie was the heart and soul of that championship team, which boasted few other stars -- Mark Buerhle and the last wisps of Frank Thomas about the only other notable contributors.
Konerko's big bat and quiet leadership are beloved on the South side and about the only things, besides perhaps another Stanley Cup, the city will have to celebrate this summer. So a tip of the cap to Paul Konerko. Consider this homage your parting gift.
Well, that and $130 million lifetime earnings.
31 May 2014
A Full Year of Yasiel Puig
On June 3, Yasiel Puig's Major League career turns a year old. In that span, he has gone from five-tool phenom to over-rated youth to untamed bronco to retroactive kidnapping victim to legitimate star, where he stands today.
It turns out that, histrionics over his home run posturing aside, Puig is every bit the player he appeared to be at the start.
After 155 games, Puig is abusing NL pitchers at a .328/.408/.564 clip. His results can no longer be attributed to solely to a ridiculously hot debut (1.180 OPS in his first month.) In fact, after Puig cooled off in the second half of 2013, he has elevated his game this year (1.064 OPS in 2014) both at the plate and in the field. IN his first full year, Puig has added nearly eight wins to the Dodgers, squarely in MVP territory.
Indeed, Puig has demonstrated that he could adjust to the league's adjustment to him, and then adjust to subsequent adjustments. He has much better command of the strike zone than he showed last season, lowering his rate of swings outside the zone. He has better calibrated his game as well, demonstrating restraint on throws to bases and diving for balls in close games that he lays off in blowouts. Amid all the fanfare, it's easy to forget what a stud this 6'3", 235-pound athlete Puig is.
Puig is still a bit unrestrained on the basepaths: for all his speed he's been gunned down on 12 of his 28 SB attempts and occasionally still runs into outs after hits. But he's just exiting his rookie status, after all.
On the subject of admiring his home runs and hotdogging in the field, let me offer a word of advice to offended opponents: Shut the !@#$%^&* up. (You got three words free.) If you don't like the way Puig -- or anyone else -- runs out his long balls, don't serve them up.
Puig will make $6 million each of the next six seasons, an amount he will have earned in its entirety by the end of 2014, barring injury. So for all the controversy surrounding his debut and subsequent performance, the bottom line is that Yasiel Puig is a spectacular baseball player whom any fan should want on their team.
It turns out that, histrionics over his home run posturing aside, Puig is every bit the player he appeared to be at the start.
After 155 games, Puig is abusing NL pitchers at a .328/.408/.564 clip. His results can no longer be attributed to solely to a ridiculously hot debut (1.180 OPS in his first month.) In fact, after Puig cooled off in the second half of 2013, he has elevated his game this year (1.064 OPS in 2014) both at the plate and in the field. IN his first full year, Puig has added nearly eight wins to the Dodgers, squarely in MVP territory.
Indeed, Puig has demonstrated that he could adjust to the league's adjustment to him, and then adjust to subsequent adjustments. He has much better command of the strike zone than he showed last season, lowering his rate of swings outside the zone. He has better calibrated his game as well, demonstrating restraint on throws to bases and diving for balls in close games that he lays off in blowouts. Amid all the fanfare, it's easy to forget what a stud this 6'3", 235-pound athlete Puig is.
Puig is still a bit unrestrained on the basepaths: for all his speed he's been gunned down on 12 of his 28 SB attempts and occasionally still runs into outs after hits. But he's just exiting his rookie status, after all.
On the subject of admiring his home runs and hotdogging in the field, let me offer a word of advice to offended opponents: Shut the !@#$%^&* up. (You got three words free.) If you don't like the way Puig -- or anyone else -- runs out his long balls, don't serve them up.
Puig will make $6 million each of the next six seasons, an amount he will have earned in its entirety by the end of 2014, barring injury. So for all the controversy surrounding his debut and subsequent performance, the bottom line is that Yasiel Puig is a spectacular baseball player whom any fan should want on their team.
30 May 2014
Wanted: Sports Journalist Who Knows Sports. And Journalism
Man, this is like stomping on dead mosquitoes -- doesn't take any skill but sure is satisfying.
Here's the A.P. write-up in my newspaper on the Tigers' 5-4 win over Oakland.
Miguel Cabrera hit a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the fifth inning to back Rick Porcello's eighth victory and the Detroit Tigers beat the Oakland A's for a split of their four-game series.
Ahem.
Let's list the individuals elements of stupid involved in this description.
1. Cabrera flied out and got top billing.
2. Ian Kinsler doubled and got to third without Cabrera's help, but was not mentioned.
3. The fifth inning?!
4. Cabrera's momentous out -- did I mention it was in the fifth inning? -- made the score 3-2. Had the Tigers failed to score two more runs they would have lost.
5. Porcello pitched 5 2/3 and allowed 11 baserunners, including six walks. In other words, he stunk.
6. Three middle relievers saved the game by shutting out Oakland over 2 1/3 frames, including bailing Porcello out of a jam in the sixth.
7. Wins shmins: Porcello has pitched roughly average this year.
What a senscient editor would have re-written:
Ian Kinsler wrapped a pair of doubles and scored twice to lead the Detroit Tigers over the Oakland A's for a split of their four-game series. Relievers Gary Kroll, Al Albuquerque and Joba Chamberlain offset a wild performance by starter Rick Porcello to nail down the win.
Here's the A.P. write-up in my newspaper on the Tigers' 5-4 win over Oakland.
Miguel Cabrera hit a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the fifth inning to back Rick Porcello's eighth victory and the Detroit Tigers beat the Oakland A's for a split of their four-game series.
Ahem.
Let's list the individuals elements of stupid involved in this description.
1. Cabrera flied out and got top billing.
2. Ian Kinsler doubled and got to third without Cabrera's help, but was not mentioned.
3. The fifth inning?!
4. Cabrera's momentous out -- did I mention it was in the fifth inning? -- made the score 3-2. Had the Tigers failed to score two more runs they would have lost.
5. Porcello pitched 5 2/3 and allowed 11 baserunners, including six walks. In other words, he stunk.
6. Three middle relievers saved the game by shutting out Oakland over 2 1/3 frames, including bailing Porcello out of a jam in the sixth.
7. Wins shmins: Porcello has pitched roughly average this year.
What a senscient editor would have re-written:
Ian Kinsler wrapped a pair of doubles and scored twice to lead the Detroit Tigers over the Oakland A's for a split of their four-game series. Relievers Gary Kroll, Al Albuquerque and Joba Chamberlain offset a wild performance by starter Rick Porcello to nail down the win.
29 May 2014
Depth: The New Inefficiency
Last season, the New York Yankees roster went on the disabled list. In the absence of players like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira, the Bombers plugged in whatever they could rummage from the junkyard -- Jason Nix, Eduardo Nunez, Lyle Overbay, Travis Hafner and a cast of thousands who contributed even less. The result was their second playoff absence since 1995.
Meanwhile, the talent-challenged Rays and A's made the playoffs, winning 92 and 96 games respectively. The Athletics featured one star -- the hitherto unknown third baseman Josh Donaldson -- and no one else who either batted over .300 or socked more than 30 homers. On the mound, Bartolo Colon shocked the league with an 18-6, 2.65 record, but you'd be forgiven if you never heard of the rest of the staff.
So how did Oakland win the West? How about this: seven of nine regulars posted an above average OPS, and all nine cleared 90% of league average. Another five backups with 100+ at bats contributed likewise. On the hill, the A's threw six quality arms at the league, the worst of whom was Tommy Milone, 12-9, 4.14 with a K/BB rate over three. The bullpen chipped in well-distributed excellence, with seven above-average pitchers finishing more than 10 games each.
It wasn't just the numbers on the bench. Skipper Bob Melvin slotted 18 different players into the DH role over the 162 games, using it to maximize lefty-righty and offense-defense match-ups. Four catchers shared shin guard duty -- Derek Norris, utility man John Jaso and Kurt Suzuki for their hitting skills and Stephen Vogt for his defense.
This year, Billy Beane inked four solid relievers to longish-term deals, a rarity in MLB and certainly in Oakland. The lead the AL in scoring and in ERA; following a four-game skid they remain atop the AL West.
For a couple of years after Moneyball spilled Beane's beans, the A's lost a bit of their edge. But he has found new inefficiencies to exploit and has Oakland poised to ride their embarrassingly low payroll to a third straight West Division title. And it's easy to see what the inefficiency is.
While the Yankees were reacting to inevitable injuries on their geriatric roster, the A's prepared for it by inking average players to moderate paydays and scattering them around the diamond. The result is a catching platoon of Derek Norris and John Jaso that has limited their plate appearances to opposite-handed starters. Combined they are hitting .302/.397/.482 and earning $2.8 million.
Just three of the A's 13 moundsmen earn more than $800,000 -- closer Jim Johnson, set-up man Luke Gregerson and starter Scott Kazmir. Hitting star Donaldson, still under team control, takes home half-a-million bucks. It's as if the A's, unable to afford George Clooney and Sandra Bullock, entice Jeremy Irons and Emma Thompson to act in their movie for scale, and then ink Annette Benning, Robert Downey, Jr. and Maggie Smith to low-dough deals with the promise of juicy roles.
It's working, and as soon as the rest of baseball figures it out, Oakland and Tampa will be on to something else.
Meanwhile, the talent-challenged Rays and A's made the playoffs, winning 92 and 96 games respectively. The Athletics featured one star -- the hitherto unknown third baseman Josh Donaldson -- and no one else who either batted over .300 or socked more than 30 homers. On the mound, Bartolo Colon shocked the league with an 18-6, 2.65 record, but you'd be forgiven if you never heard of the rest of the staff.
So how did Oakland win the West? How about this: seven of nine regulars posted an above average OPS, and all nine cleared 90% of league average. Another five backups with 100+ at bats contributed likewise. On the hill, the A's threw six quality arms at the league, the worst of whom was Tommy Milone, 12-9, 4.14 with a K/BB rate over three. The bullpen chipped in well-distributed excellence, with seven above-average pitchers finishing more than 10 games each.
It wasn't just the numbers on the bench. Skipper Bob Melvin slotted 18 different players into the DH role over the 162 games, using it to maximize lefty-righty and offense-defense match-ups. Four catchers shared shin guard duty -- Derek Norris, utility man John Jaso and Kurt Suzuki for their hitting skills and Stephen Vogt for his defense.
This year, Billy Beane inked four solid relievers to longish-term deals, a rarity in MLB and certainly in Oakland. The lead the AL in scoring and in ERA; following a four-game skid they remain atop the AL West.
For a couple of years after Moneyball spilled Beane's beans, the A's lost a bit of their edge. But he has found new inefficiencies to exploit and has Oakland poised to ride their embarrassingly low payroll to a third straight West Division title. And it's easy to see what the inefficiency is.
While the Yankees were reacting to inevitable injuries on their geriatric roster, the A's prepared for it by inking average players to moderate paydays and scattering them around the diamond. The result is a catching platoon of Derek Norris and John Jaso that has limited their plate appearances to opposite-handed starters. Combined they are hitting .302/.397/.482 and earning $2.8 million.
Just three of the A's 13 moundsmen earn more than $800,000 -- closer Jim Johnson, set-up man Luke Gregerson and starter Scott Kazmir. Hitting star Donaldson, still under team control, takes home half-a-million bucks. It's as if the A's, unable to afford George Clooney and Sandra Bullock, entice Jeremy Irons and Emma Thompson to act in their movie for scale, and then ink Annette Benning, Robert Downey, Jr. and Maggie Smith to low-dough deals with the promise of juicy roles.
It's working, and as soon as the rest of baseball figures it out, Oakland and Tampa will be on to something else.
27 May 2014
Wash Incorrectly. Rinse. Repeat Every Sunday
Below is the listing in my Sunday newspaper of the team batting leaders in the National League.
This listing reflects the fact that the AP and my local sports section editor worship the false god of batting average.
But this is nonsense, of course.
The purpose of batting is to score runs, not run up a batting average. The Tigers aren't the top hitting team; they've only tallied 220 runs. The A's have plated 248 runs, most in the league, but they're listed 10th because they do it with home runs and walks, not with batting average.
Detroit is only the sixth best hitting team. In fact, though they lead the league in batting average by a goodly margin, they're one free pass from the bottom of the league in walks, leaving them third in OBP.
If you were to re-order this list by what really matters it would look like this: 10-4-6-7-9-1-2-5-12-3-14-11-13-8-15.
There's not a lot of correlation there. Teams in the top half of the league in batting average tended to be in the top half in scoring, but that's about the entirety of the connection.
If you ordered teams by OBP or OPS you'd have a higher correlation. Listing teams in the order of their home runs would give you roughly the same mess.
Hitting for high average is valuable, but it's only one of many building blocks of the ultimate aim -- scoring runs. Could someone wake the Associated Press and let them know?
This listing reflects the fact that the AP and my local sports section editor worship the false god of batting average.
|
But this is nonsense, of course.
The purpose of batting is to score runs, not run up a batting average. The Tigers aren't the top hitting team; they've only tallied 220 runs. The A's have plated 248 runs, most in the league, but they're listed 10th because they do it with home runs and walks, not with batting average.
Detroit is only the sixth best hitting team. In fact, though they lead the league in batting average by a goodly margin, they're one free pass from the bottom of the league in walks, leaving them third in OBP.
If you were to re-order this list by what really matters it would look like this: 10-4-6-7-9-1-2-5-12-3-14-11-13-8-15.
There's not a lot of correlation there. Teams in the top half of the league in batting average tended to be in the top half in scoring, but that's about the entirety of the connection.
If you ordered teams by OBP or OPS you'd have a higher correlation. Listing teams in the order of their home runs would give you roughly the same mess.
Hitting for high average is valuable, but it's only one of many building blocks of the ultimate aim -- scoring runs. Could someone wake the Associated Press and let them know?
26 May 2014
Do Not Chew Your Stolen Bases
One of the problems faced by Luddites and other haters of Sabermetrics is that they are forced to fight gun battles with knives. The numbers crunchers speak in the language of research, data and measurable results. Cement heads talk about tradition, unwritten rules and a hatred of math.
Keith Hernandez is not a Luddite or a hater of Sabermetrics. In fact, he's one-third of the best local TV broadcast team in the Majors. Along with Gary Cohen and Ron Darling, Hernandez provides more insight in one inning than in an entire week's worth of White Sox telecasts.
But even Hernandez is susceptible to misrepresenting the basics of new analysis. On a recent broadcast, Hernandez claimed that Sabermetrics eschews the stolen base.
Sabermetricians doesn't eschew stolen bases. They don't chew them and they don't es them. They don't cashew stolen bases. Or almond or peanut them. Seamheads don't apply any nut or legume to stolen bases. If you can count, you love stolen bases as much the innumerate fan.
Stolen bases are good. They take runners from first and put them on second. Yay.
On average, teams score .941 runs when they start an inning with a runner on first and none out. With that runner instead on second, they score 1.17 runs. That's an extra run every fifth game. If your opponent offers you an extra run every fifth game, take it.
What Sabermetrics doesn't like is getting thrown out trying to steal. Outs are bad. Far worse than advancing a base is good. In fact, research (no! not that!) shows that getting thrown out attempting to steal offsets slightly more than two successful thefts.
If that same runner gets nailed instead, his team's run expectancy that inning drops from .941 to .291. He costs his team two-thirds of a run. Not only is he no longer on base, but his team forgoes a precious out. They only get 27 of them.
Which is why stat guys look at steals with a jaundiced eye. The year Ty Cobb set the steals record with 96, he ran into 38 outs. His baserunning, for all the added bases he took, was worth all of two runs. Rickey Henderson is the current record holder with 130 steals in 1982. He was cut down 42 times. He netted his team about nine runs.
Those are commendable, but hardly worthy of a record. For most of my youth, Maury Wills was the steal king. In his 104-steal season of 1962, he was caught just 13 times, a net benefit to his team of 22 runs. So although Henderson broke his record, it came at a stiff price. For his extra 26 steals, Henderson got thrown out 29 times, a miserable tradeoff.
Henderson is the single season base thief god, but Tim Raines was more valuable stealing bases for six consecutive seasons -- in which he swiped 454 of 513 -- than Henderson was in his record-breaking year. (To be fair, Rickey had six better seasons on the basepaths too, including the following year, when he stole 108 of 127. Absent his 1982 season, that would stand as the record without the caveat.)
So Sabermetricians are being rational when they look askance at SB numbers without knowing the CS numbers too. Of course, being rational is another thing they do that annoys Luddites.
Keith Hernandez is not a Luddite or a hater of Sabermetrics. In fact, he's one-third of the best local TV broadcast team in the Majors. Along with Gary Cohen and Ron Darling, Hernandez provides more insight in one inning than in an entire week's worth of White Sox telecasts.
But even Hernandez is susceptible to misrepresenting the basics of new analysis. On a recent broadcast, Hernandez claimed that Sabermetrics eschews the stolen base.
Sabermetricians doesn't eschew stolen bases. They don't chew them and they don't es them. They don't cashew stolen bases. Or almond or peanut them. Seamheads don't apply any nut or legume to stolen bases. If you can count, you love stolen bases as much the innumerate fan.
Stolen bases are good. They take runners from first and put them on second. Yay.
On average, teams score .941 runs when they start an inning with a runner on first and none out. With that runner instead on second, they score 1.17 runs. That's an extra run every fifth game. If your opponent offers you an extra run every fifth game, take it.
What Sabermetrics doesn't like is getting thrown out trying to steal. Outs are bad. Far worse than advancing a base is good. In fact, research (no! not that!) shows that getting thrown out attempting to steal offsets slightly more than two successful thefts.
If that same runner gets nailed instead, his team's run expectancy that inning drops from .941 to .291. He costs his team two-thirds of a run. Not only is he no longer on base, but his team forgoes a precious out. They only get 27 of them.
Which is why stat guys look at steals with a jaundiced eye. The year Ty Cobb set the steals record with 96, he ran into 38 outs. His baserunning, for all the added bases he took, was worth all of two runs. Rickey Henderson is the current record holder with 130 steals in 1982. He was cut down 42 times. He netted his team about nine runs.
Those are commendable, but hardly worthy of a record. For most of my youth, Maury Wills was the steal king. In his 104-steal season of 1962, he was caught just 13 times, a net benefit to his team of 22 runs. So although Henderson broke his record, it came at a stiff price. For his extra 26 steals, Henderson got thrown out 29 times, a miserable tradeoff.
Henderson is the single season base thief god, but Tim Raines was more valuable stealing bases for six consecutive seasons -- in which he swiped 454 of 513 -- than Henderson was in his record-breaking year. (To be fair, Rickey had six better seasons on the basepaths too, including the following year, when he stole 108 of 127. Absent his 1982 season, that would stand as the record without the caveat.)
So Sabermetricians are being rational when they look askance at SB numbers without knowing the CS numbers too. Of course, being rational is another thing they do that annoys Luddites.
18 May 2014
So What Was the Regular Season For?
Some brief dead-horse beating . . .
The complaint here about professional basketball and hockey in North America has always been that they play 80 games each for no apparent reason, allow mediocrity into the badly-devalued playoffs, drag through weeks of post-season revenue generation (the "post" season -- practically an admission in itself that the "season" is irrelevant) before finally getting, anti-climatically, to the point.
The conference finals are now starting in the NBA and NHL and they provide a stark case in point.
In the NBA, all the silliness has been dispatched after voluminous faux drama and over-wrought analysis and the result is exactly what you could have predicted on the first day of the season. The finals comprise not only the top two seeds in each conference but also the best teams entering the season, lo those many months ago. Indeed, they are the very same teams that squared off in last year's conference finals.
Maybe even more to the point, the favorites in each series -- the teams that met in last year's championship series -- are the two most notable for their disdain of the regular season. San Antonio's coach has been fined for resting his stars during meaningless January contests. Miami, clearly the most talented outfit, coasted though the long gauntlet with the singular goal of getting its number two star healthy come crunch time.
Put another way, a season that has slogged through six months is now finally beginning in earnest in month seven.
Hockey has the same issue -- except in reverse. After eliminating only a handful of awful teams following a full season of play, the NHL playoffs have given us two five seeds, a four seed and a six seed in the conference finals. How a team performs in the regular season is utterly, completely, inexcusably meaningless as long as it makes the cut, a bar so low as to be laughable.
Once in the tournament, winning in hockey seems to be more about a hot goaltender, a healthy team and some fortunate bounces of the puck than anything else.
Put another way, a winter sport has slogged through six months to determine absolutely nothing. The winner of the Cup will not be able to claim it is the best hockey club, or the second best or anything except the survivor of a tournament that will finally conclude in the opposite hemisphere's winter.
There are great story lines, and should be inspiring competition, in these four series. I'll be watching.
For the first time since last May.
The complaint here about professional basketball and hockey in North America has always been that they play 80 games each for no apparent reason, allow mediocrity into the badly-devalued playoffs, drag through weeks of post-season revenue generation (the "post" season -- practically an admission in itself that the "season" is irrelevant) before finally getting, anti-climatically, to the point.
The conference finals are now starting in the NBA and NHL and they provide a stark case in point.
In the NBA, all the silliness has been dispatched after voluminous faux drama and over-wrought analysis and the result is exactly what you could have predicted on the first day of the season. The finals comprise not only the top two seeds in each conference but also the best teams entering the season, lo those many months ago. Indeed, they are the very same teams that squared off in last year's conference finals.
Maybe even more to the point, the favorites in each series -- the teams that met in last year's championship series -- are the two most notable for their disdain of the regular season. San Antonio's coach has been fined for resting his stars during meaningless January contests. Miami, clearly the most talented outfit, coasted though the long gauntlet with the singular goal of getting its number two star healthy come crunch time.
Put another way, a season that has slogged through six months is now finally beginning in earnest in month seven.
Hockey has the same issue -- except in reverse. After eliminating only a handful of awful teams following a full season of play, the NHL playoffs have given us two five seeds, a four seed and a six seed in the conference finals. How a team performs in the regular season is utterly, completely, inexcusably meaningless as long as it makes the cut, a bar so low as to be laughable.
Once in the tournament, winning in hockey seems to be more about a hot goaltender, a healthy team and some fortunate bounces of the puck than anything else.
Put another way, a winter sport has slogged through six months to determine absolutely nothing. The winner of the Cup will not be able to claim it is the best hockey club, or the second best or anything except the survivor of a tournament that will finally conclude in the opposite hemisphere's winter.
There are great story lines, and should be inspiring competition, in these four series. I'll be watching.
For the first time since last May.
15 May 2014
Johnny Cueto Goes All the Way (But Doesn't Give Up Anything)
If you were asked to name the top 10 pitchers in baseball, or 20, or 30, you would likely forget to include Johnny Cueto. The Reds' ace has rocked ERAs of 3.64, 2.31, 2.78, 2.82 and 1.25 since 2009, but he's won more than 12 games once and missed a year's worth of starts the last three seasons.
Well, the 28-year-old righty is making amends in 2014. Cueto has started nine games this season and thrown 63 innings. That's eight frames-a-game, including three complete games and two shutouts. Opposing batters have collected just 33 hits against him this season -- fewer than five-a-game, plus 18 walks and 76 strikeouts. Yeesh.
Here are the nine starts in order:
Seven innings, one run on three hits against the Cards
Seven innings, two runs on five hits against the Mets
Seven innings, two runs on five hits against the Rays
Nine innings, no runs on three hits against the Bucs
Nine innings, one run on three hits against the Bucs
Eight innings, no runs on three hits against the Braves
Eight innings, two runs on three hits against the Brewers
Eight innings, two runs on five hits against the Rockies
Nine innings, no runs on three hits against the Padres
It's the first time a pitcher has begun the season with nine straight games of 7+ innings and two or fewer runs in 100 years.
Not a clunker in the bunch; in fact, there's barely a hint of vulnerability. So what is Cueto, 9-0? 8-1? How many no-decisions can a guy have when he's left to the bullpen nine innings in two months?
The answer is, he's 4-2 with three no decisions. His two losses are 1-0 to St. Louis and 2-1 to Tampa. In his nine starts, his mates have hung more than four runs on the opponent once, fewer than two runs three times. What's a guy got to do?
Cueto earned the "W" in Game One of a twin bill against San Diego today. In Game Two, the Reds showed why Cueto has to work so hard for his victories. After opposing hurler Tyler Ross began the game bouncing one slider after another in the dirt, loading the bases on walks, only two Reds forced him to go even four pitches for the next four innings. Both walked, but no one else made a dent and the Reds went down meekly as Ross built confidence and control.
Good luck, Johnny. You'll no doubt continue to win -- as long as you keep pitching complete game shutouts.
Well, the 28-year-old righty is making amends in 2014. Cueto has started nine games this season and thrown 63 innings. That's eight frames-a-game, including three complete games and two shutouts. Opposing batters have collected just 33 hits against him this season -- fewer than five-a-game, plus 18 walks and 76 strikeouts. Yeesh.
Here are the nine starts in order:
Seven innings, one run on three hits against the Cards
Seven innings, two runs on five hits against the Mets
Seven innings, two runs on five hits against the Rays
Nine innings, no runs on three hits against the Bucs
Nine innings, one run on three hits against the Bucs
Eight innings, no runs on three hits against the Braves
Eight innings, two runs on three hits against the Brewers
Eight innings, two runs on five hits against the Rockies
Nine innings, no runs on three hits against the Padres
It's the first time a pitcher has begun the season with nine straight games of 7+ innings and two or fewer runs in 100 years.
Not a clunker in the bunch; in fact, there's barely a hint of vulnerability. So what is Cueto, 9-0? 8-1? How many no-decisions can a guy have when he's left to the bullpen nine innings in two months?
The answer is, he's 4-2 with three no decisions. His two losses are 1-0 to St. Louis and 2-1 to Tampa. In his nine starts, his mates have hung more than four runs on the opponent once, fewer than two runs three times. What's a guy got to do?
Cueto earned the "W" in Game One of a twin bill against San Diego today. In Game Two, the Reds showed why Cueto has to work so hard for his victories. After opposing hurler Tyler Ross began the game bouncing one slider after another in the dirt, loading the bases on walks, only two Reds forced him to go even four pitches for the next four innings. Both walked, but no one else made a dent and the Reds went down meekly as Ross built confidence and control.
Good luck, Johnny. You'll no doubt continue to win -- as long as you keep pitching complete game shutouts.
11 May 2014
Stuff You Didn't Know
Padres Production
...and since that last post, the Padres have scored 10, 9 and 5, all in wins over the Marlins. That means they've scored nearly a quarter of their season's runs in a single three-game series. With the weekend's outburst, San Diego batters have doubled their offensive value over replacement and no longer own the lowest team batting average or on base percentage. Rah.
Marlins Home Cooking
The Miami Marlins are the best team in baseball (17-5) at home. They are the worst team in baseball (3-13) on the road. Their team OPS is 220 points higher at home. Here are their batting splits:
Player BA home BA road
C Jarrod Saltalamachia .348 .146
3B Casey McGehee .346 .224
OF Giancarlo Stanton .354 .217
SS Adeiny Hechavarria .316 .214
OF Christian Yelich .282 .241
OF Marcel Ozuna .308 .203
1B Garret Jones .250 .236
2B Derek Dietrich .263 .206
OF Reed Johnson .360 .231
UT Jeff Baker .216 .150
It's the same for the pitching staff, which has a .261 ERA at home; 5.01 on the road.
Bad news, Florida: the Marlins play their next eight games on the West Coast, none of whose cities are Miami.
Enjoying The Majors Very Machi
Spherical Venezuelan righty Jean Machi is up to the Bigs with the Giants for the third time. He should stick for awhile; in 77 innings this season and last he's whiffed 68 and walked just 17 en route to a .234 ERA. At age 32, Machi has spent 14 years in pro ball, played for nine Minor League teams and been released three times. That Major League minimum of $505,000 roughly doubles his lifetime earnings.
Joey Bats Really Well
Jose Bautista came to the plate four times today and returned to the dugout four times. In Toronto's 38th game, it's the first time Joey Bats hadn't reached safely in one way or another. Coming into the game he was batting .295 but leading the league in walks, leading to a .440 OBP and the league lead in OPS.
The Price Is Wrong
It's been a tough start for Rays lefty David Price. The Cy Young laureate leads the AL in hits allowed and rocks a 4.53 ERA. With 58 punchouts and just six walks, how could that be? Nine home runs is how. He's allowed six walks but nine home runs.
Krush
Brewers left fielder Khris Davis stands 5'11", weighs 190 pounds and owned 11 home run credits coming into this season. Orioles first baseman Chris Davis goes 6'3" 230 and slammed 86 bombs the last two seasons alone. So far in 2014, Khris has out-homered Chris by double.
Yesterday, Meet Tomorrow
In a bounceback season, Albert Pujols is slugging at a 46 home run pace. Mike Trout, batting just .275, owns twice Albert's wins against replacement. Wait 'til he heats up.
At Home Where They Are
The Cardinals are a disappointing 18-19 and five games out coming into Sunday night's game. But they've played 26 of their 38 games away from Busch Stadium. It's the highest percentage of first 38 games played on the road in MLB history. They play 20 of the next 23 games at home. Let's talk after that.
...and since that last post, the Padres have scored 10, 9 and 5, all in wins over the Marlins. That means they've scored nearly a quarter of their season's runs in a single three-game series. With the weekend's outburst, San Diego batters have doubled their offensive value over replacement and no longer own the lowest team batting average or on base percentage. Rah.
Marlins Home Cooking
The Miami Marlins are the best team in baseball (17-5) at home. They are the worst team in baseball (3-13) on the road. Their team OPS is 220 points higher at home. Here are their batting splits:
Player BA home BA road
C Jarrod Saltalamachia .348 .146
3B Casey McGehee .346 .224
OF Giancarlo Stanton .354 .217
SS Adeiny Hechavarria .316 .214
OF Christian Yelich .282 .241
OF Marcel Ozuna .308 .203
1B Garret Jones .250 .236
2B Derek Dietrich .263 .206
OF Reed Johnson .360 .231
UT Jeff Baker .216 .150
It's the same for the pitching staff, which has a .261 ERA at home; 5.01 on the road.
Bad news, Florida: the Marlins play their next eight games on the West Coast, none of whose cities are Miami.
Enjoying The Majors Very Machi
Spherical Venezuelan righty Jean Machi is up to the Bigs with the Giants for the third time. He should stick for awhile; in 77 innings this season and last he's whiffed 68 and walked just 17 en route to a .234 ERA. At age 32, Machi has spent 14 years in pro ball, played for nine Minor League teams and been released three times. That Major League minimum of $505,000 roughly doubles his lifetime earnings.
Joey Bats Really Well
Jose Bautista came to the plate four times today and returned to the dugout four times. In Toronto's 38th game, it's the first time Joey Bats hadn't reached safely in one way or another. Coming into the game he was batting .295 but leading the league in walks, leading to a .440 OBP and the league lead in OPS.
The Price Is Wrong
It's been a tough start for Rays lefty David Price. The Cy Young laureate leads the AL in hits allowed and rocks a 4.53 ERA. With 58 punchouts and just six walks, how could that be? Nine home runs is how. He's allowed six walks but nine home runs.
Krush
Brewers left fielder Khris Davis stands 5'11", weighs 190 pounds and owned 11 home run credits coming into this season. Orioles first baseman Chris Davis goes 6'3" 230 and slammed 86 bombs the last two seasons alone. So far in 2014, Khris has out-homered Chris by double.
Yesterday, Meet Tomorrow
In a bounceback season, Albert Pujols is slugging at a 46 home run pace. Mike Trout, batting just .275, owns twice Albert's wins against replacement. Wait 'til he heats up.
At Home Where They Are
The Cardinals are a disappointing 18-19 and five games out coming into Sunday night's game. But they've played 26 of their 38 games away from Busch Stadium. It's the highest percentage of first 38 games played on the road in MLB history. They play 20 of the next 23 games at home. Let's talk after that.
10 May 2014
Pain for Padre Pitchers
The San Diego Padres busted out for a 10-1 home clobbering of Miami last night, increasing their total season scoring by 11%.
The "Hitless Wonders" were positively Ruthian compared to the 2014 Friars, who are not just last in the Majors in scoring, batting average, on base percentage and OPS this year, but for half a century.
Pitcher Ian Kennedy smacked a home run earlier this season, tying him for fifth on the club. Of the nine Padres with 50 or more plate appearances, just three are batting over .230 or getting on base better than 28% of the time. Overall, the team is roughly replacement level at the plate and on the base paths. Considering that they've stolen 23 of 31 bases as a team, replacements might be warranted at bat.
Petco is partly to blame for their struggles. The park is baseball's leading run-killer. But going into yesterday's game, Baseball Prospectus's R.J. Anderson reports, "even park-adjusted numbers produce a bad odor, as the Padres' .219 True Average is more than 10 points below the worst offense on record since 1950: the 1981 Blue Jays, who were led in plate appearances by Alfredo Griffin, owner of a .243 on-base percentage."
Injuries have robbed the team of some of its top performers. Center fielder Cameron Maybin has missed two thirds of the season with a torn bicep. His replacement, Will Venable, is hitting half of Maybin's .361/.410/.500. Utility infielder Alexi Amirista (.185/.267./.272) is no Chase Headley at third; then again, Headley hasn't been himself either (.186/.250/.314) when healthy.
It's hard to imagine the offense not improving, if only because the worst offenders will eventually be replaced. In the meantime, Padre pitching has done its part to keep the team within five games of .500. But without more of those 10-1 shellackings, some history is going to get make in San Diego this year.
The "Hitless Wonders" were positively Ruthian compared to the 2014 Friars, who are not just last in the Majors in scoring, batting average, on base percentage and OPS this year, but for half a century.
Pitcher Ian Kennedy smacked a home run earlier this season, tying him for fifth on the club. Of the nine Padres with 50 or more plate appearances, just three are batting over .230 or getting on base better than 28% of the time. Overall, the team is roughly replacement level at the plate and on the base paths. Considering that they've stolen 23 of 31 bases as a team, replacements might be warranted at bat.
Petco is partly to blame for their struggles. The park is baseball's leading run-killer. But going into yesterday's game, Baseball Prospectus's R.J. Anderson reports, "even park-adjusted numbers produce a bad odor, as the Padres' .219 True Average is more than 10 points below the worst offense on record since 1950: the 1981 Blue Jays, who were led in plate appearances by Alfredo Griffin, owner of a .243 on-base percentage."
Injuries have robbed the team of some of its top performers. Center fielder Cameron Maybin has missed two thirds of the season with a torn bicep. His replacement, Will Venable, is hitting half of Maybin's .361/.410/.500. Utility infielder Alexi Amirista (.185/.267./.272) is no Chase Headley at third; then again, Headley hasn't been himself either (.186/.250/.314) when healthy.
It's hard to imagine the offense not improving, if only because the worst offenders will eventually be replaced. In the meantime, Padre pitching has done its part to keep the team within five games of .500. But without more of those 10-1 shellackings, some history is going to get make in San Diego this year.
06 May 2014
Let's Rub Robinson Cano's Uniform in Dirt
Dustin Pedroia is an awesome player. A career .301 hitter, he gets aboard at an admirable .367 clip, flashes leather at second, swipes bases efficiently and plays with verve that endears him to teammates. He's posted 39.4 WAR since entering the league in 2006.
Ronbinson Cano also flashes leather at the keystone, though vervelessly. He poses no threat, except to his own team, of running. A career .309 hitter, he's on base a little less than Pedroia but hits for significantly more power -- twice as many home runs and 50% more RBI. He's also outscored Petey by 162 runs. The Yankees and Red Sox have both created scads of crooked numbers during the two players' careers, so that's not an issue.
Overall, Cano has posted 45.5 WAR in one more season, six wins more valuable overall than his Boston rival. But Mariano Rivera says in his new book that he prefers Pedroia over Cano. And Mariano is an honorable man.
Rivera says Pedroia burns to win and Cano does not. Well, I burn to win. Unfortunately, my talent lacks the will to exist.
More importantly, does "desire" really show up in the results? In his career, Pedroia is a slightly worse hitter when he bats with two outs. Cano is too, though he retains more of his value. But Mariano Rivera prefers Pedroia over Cano. And Mariano is an honorable man.
With runners in scoring position, both players lose some value. Pedroia makes up some ground on Cano, but Cano is still the better hitter.
Pedroia comes alive in high-leverage situations -- when the game is really on the line -- hitting safely nearly 40% of the time. Cano can't match him. But Cano makes it all up in medium leverage situations. It's a point for Petey, but hardly conclusive.
How about the post-season, when it really matters? Ha! They both stink. Cano has been more pungent, but nothing about Pedroia's post-season resume says "burn to win."
Cano is also getting better; his four best seasons have been his last four. Pedroia peaked in '08 and has more or less maintained that level of performance.
So why would the sainted Mariano Rivers take a jab at his former teammate and issue an homage to a former rival? The less obvious reason is a soiled uniform on a 5' 8" body. Pedroia makes a habit of throwing his miniature self in the dirt each game, and that gives the appearance of caring. We all adore the scrappy little over-achiever.
The more obvious reason is that Cano committed the cardinal sin of jumping the Yankee ship for the money. It's hysterical to hear the team's fans contort themselves to find that odious. Evidently they discount any accomplishments by Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, CC Sabathia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Wade Boggs, Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter . . . how much time do you have?
Mariano Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher of all time or at least until Craig Kimbrel retires. But that doesn't make him an expert on analyzing the game, any more than it made Joe Morgan or Harold Reynolds or John Kruk. The two second basemen are both potential Hall of Famers, but the talent is worth more than all the world's scrappiness. Take Cano, and if it makes you feel any better, you can rub his uniform in dirt before he puts it on.
Ronbinson Cano also flashes leather at the keystone, though vervelessly. He poses no threat, except to his own team, of running. A career .309 hitter, he's on base a little less than Pedroia but hits for significantly more power -- twice as many home runs and 50% more RBI. He's also outscored Petey by 162 runs. The Yankees and Red Sox have both created scads of crooked numbers during the two players' careers, so that's not an issue.
Overall, Cano has posted 45.5 WAR in one more season, six wins more valuable overall than his Boston rival. But Mariano Rivera says in his new book that he prefers Pedroia over Cano. And Mariano is an honorable man.
Rivera says Pedroia burns to win and Cano does not. Well, I burn to win. Unfortunately, my talent lacks the will to exist.
More importantly, does "desire" really show up in the results? In his career, Pedroia is a slightly worse hitter when he bats with two outs. Cano is too, though he retains more of his value. But Mariano Rivera prefers Pedroia over Cano. And Mariano is an honorable man.
With runners in scoring position, both players lose some value. Pedroia makes up some ground on Cano, but Cano is still the better hitter.
Pedroia comes alive in high-leverage situations -- when the game is really on the line -- hitting safely nearly 40% of the time. Cano can't match him. But Cano makes it all up in medium leverage situations. It's a point for Petey, but hardly conclusive.
How about the post-season, when it really matters? Ha! They both stink. Cano has been more pungent, but nothing about Pedroia's post-season resume says "burn to win."
Cano is also getting better; his four best seasons have been his last four. Pedroia peaked in '08 and has more or less maintained that level of performance.
So why would the sainted Mariano Rivers take a jab at his former teammate and issue an homage to a former rival? The less obvious reason is a soiled uniform on a 5' 8" body. Pedroia makes a habit of throwing his miniature self in the dirt each game, and that gives the appearance of caring. We all adore the scrappy little over-achiever.
The more obvious reason is that Cano committed the cardinal sin of jumping the Yankee ship for the money. It's hysterical to hear the team's fans contort themselves to find that odious. Evidently they discount any accomplishments by Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, CC Sabathia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Wade Boggs, Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter . . . how much time do you have?
Mariano Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher of all time or at least until Craig Kimbrel retires. But that doesn't make him an expert on analyzing the game, any more than it made Joe Morgan or Harold Reynolds or John Kruk. The two second basemen are both potential Hall of Famers, but the talent is worth more than all the world's scrappiness. Take Cano, and if it makes you feel any better, you can rub his uniform in dirt before he puts it on.
05 May 2014
Shelby Miller: Payback Will Be A Bitch
If you want to see advanced metrics in action, pay attention to Cardinals starter Shelby Miller.
Going into today's game against the stumbling Braves, Miller sported a 3-2 record and 3.15 ERA. Extrapolated to a full season, he would be 15-10, 3.15, which looks a lot like last year's 15-9, 3.06.
But it's nothing like that. Because in 34 innings this year. Shelby had allowed 51 base runners (thanks to a league-leading 21 walks) and a disconcerting seven home runs (also league-leading.) He has fanned 26, not nearly enough to temper the damage. This is not the work of a 3.15 ERA pitcher. It's the work of a 6.19 ERA pitcher (according to the advanced metrics.)
Miller has kept his ERA low by flexing muscles he likely doesn't have. First, he's had six-plus runs scored for him twice. Not surprisingly, they account for two of his three wins.
More to the point, the 23-year-old righty has been death with runners on. Opponents are batting .163 against him with men on base. He's held them to .043 with runners in scoring position.
Perhaps that sounds to you like Miller bears down with runners on. If that's the case, his pitching coach needs to smack him upside his head. Anyone who can pitch that way when they focus should focus more.
Far more likely, says 120 years of baseball experience, Miller is cashing in good karma. But the karma bank will be overdrawn soon enough and then one of three things will happen:
1. Miller will stop handing out free passes like they're condom samples in a high school.
2. He will do a better job keeping the ball in the park.
3. Payback will be a bitch.
In the game against the Braves, Miller split the difference and picked up another win. In five frames he allowed eight hitters to reach. But he put the kibosh on the long ball and got good relief support, holding Atlanta to two runs in a 4-3 win.
Even that can't go on very long, so keep an eye on Shelby Miller's ERA going forward. History predicts it will rise with the temperatures as spring turns to summer.
Going into today's game against the stumbling Braves, Miller sported a 3-2 record and 3.15 ERA. Extrapolated to a full season, he would be 15-10, 3.15, which looks a lot like last year's 15-9, 3.06.
But it's nothing like that. Because in 34 innings this year. Shelby had allowed 51 base runners (thanks to a league-leading 21 walks) and a disconcerting seven home runs (also league-leading.) He has fanned 26, not nearly enough to temper the damage. This is not the work of a 3.15 ERA pitcher. It's the work of a 6.19 ERA pitcher (according to the advanced metrics.)
Miller has kept his ERA low by flexing muscles he likely doesn't have. First, he's had six-plus runs scored for him twice. Not surprisingly, they account for two of his three wins.
More to the point, the 23-year-old righty has been death with runners on. Opponents are batting .163 against him with men on base. He's held them to .043 with runners in scoring position.
Perhaps that sounds to you like Miller bears down with runners on. If that's the case, his pitching coach needs to smack him upside his head. Anyone who can pitch that way when they focus should focus more.
Far more likely, says 120 years of baseball experience, Miller is cashing in good karma. But the karma bank will be overdrawn soon enough and then one of three things will happen:
1. Miller will stop handing out free passes like they're condom samples in a high school.
2. He will do a better job keeping the ball in the park.
3. Payback will be a bitch.
In the game against the Braves, Miller split the difference and picked up another win. In five frames he allowed eight hitters to reach. But he put the kibosh on the long ball and got good relief support, holding Atlanta to two runs in a 4-3 win.
Even that can't go on very long, so keep an eye on Shelby Miller's ERA going forward. History predicts it will rise with the temperatures as spring turns to summer.
03 May 2014
Why A Single Is Half a Home Run
Max from Boston asks on behalf of his dad: It strikes us that slugging is measured inaccurately in that a double isn't necessarily worth twice a single, a triple isn't necessarily worth 50% more than a double, a homer may be worth more than 2 doubles, etc. Is there any data regarding the possible value of a weighted slugging pct.?
Is there any data? Ha! The pale-skinned basement-dwellers responsible for much of the sabermetric research over the last generation have trolled every piece of datum from all 400,000 MLB games played since 1876; analyzed each across 49 criteria; subjected them to 11 statistical tests, applied two dozen filters; pickled them in proprietary solutions for 48 hours, rolled them in flour, egg and bread crumbs and sauteed them on high heat until crispy and brown on the edges.
There is more known about shortstop Leo Cardenas' ability to go from first-to-third on a single for the Cincinnati Reds in 1967 than about Toronto mayor Rob Ford's whereabouts last Thursday. Is there any data!
In fact, Max has opened a window into what seamheads call linear weights, exactly the calculation that Max has outlined. With runners on first and second, a double scores two runs, just as a triple does. Leaving the yard produces three -- not four -- times as many runs as a single, and the single leaves a runner just 90 feet from home. So what is the relative value of these events?
Going for Third on A Double? Hardly Worth It
Denied girlfriends after years playing video games, the stubby-fingered geeks have instead focused their pursuits on sifting through every occurrence in baseball history and determined how often and how many runs have scored when these hits (and all other events like fly outs, strikeouts, HBP, errors, etc.) have been involved. These are the relative values, assigning a walk/HBP a vaue of one:
Single ~ 1.25
Double ~ 1.75
Triple ~ 2.25
HR ~ 2.75
Are you shocked that a homer is worth less than three walks and less than two-and-a-quarter singles? Part of the value of each of these accomplishments is in their ability to not cause an out, of which there are a finite number allotted each team per game.
And Now, To Actually Answer the Question
So back to slugging percentage. Clearly just adding up total bases to derive slugging percentage, and therefore OPS, glorifies yard barkers and diminishes the accomplishments of slap hitters. We documented this in March.
There are now better measures than slugging percentage and OPS that are defined by these linear weights. wOBA and True Average are one-stop shopping linear weights measurements of overall offensive performance that include park adjustments and other sanded edges, all rolled up into a number that looks like OBP (wOBA) or batting average (TAv). Here's an example of how wOBA can correct a misconception created by Max's slugging percentage discovery:
Last year, Adam Dunn produced an OPS 48% better than league average. That's awesome. But his wOBA was just .331 -- slightly better than average. Matt Carpenter, whose OPS was lower but whose hit distribution included many fewer home runs and many more singles, doubles (55) and triples (seven), produced a wOBA of .381.
In other words, OPS says Dunn was a great hitter last season and Carpenter a good one. wOBA shows us that Dunn was an above-average offensive performer while Carpenter was a downballot MVP candidate.
Is there any data? Ha! The pale-skinned basement-dwellers responsible for much of the sabermetric research over the last generation have trolled every piece of datum from all 400,000 MLB games played since 1876; analyzed each across 49 criteria; subjected them to 11 statistical tests, applied two dozen filters; pickled them in proprietary solutions for 48 hours, rolled them in flour, egg and bread crumbs and sauteed them on high heat until crispy and brown on the edges.
There is more known about shortstop Leo Cardenas' ability to go from first-to-third on a single for the Cincinnati Reds in 1967 than about Toronto mayor Rob Ford's whereabouts last Thursday. Is there any data!
In fact, Max has opened a window into what seamheads call linear weights, exactly the calculation that Max has outlined. With runners on first and second, a double scores two runs, just as a triple does. Leaving the yard produces three -- not four -- times as many runs as a single, and the single leaves a runner just 90 feet from home. So what is the relative value of these events?
Going for Third on A Double? Hardly Worth It
Denied girlfriends after years playing video games, the stubby-fingered geeks have instead focused their pursuits on sifting through every occurrence in baseball history and determined how often and how many runs have scored when these hits (and all other events like fly outs, strikeouts, HBP, errors, etc.) have been involved. These are the relative values, assigning a walk/HBP a vaue of one:
Single ~ 1.25
Double ~ 1.75
Triple ~ 2.25
HR ~ 2.75
Are you shocked that a homer is worth less than three walks and less than two-and-a-quarter singles? Part of the value of each of these accomplishments is in their ability to not cause an out, of which there are a finite number allotted each team per game.
And Now, To Actually Answer the Question
So back to slugging percentage. Clearly just adding up total bases to derive slugging percentage, and therefore OPS, glorifies yard barkers and diminishes the accomplishments of slap hitters. We documented this in March.
There are now better measures than slugging percentage and OPS that are defined by these linear weights. wOBA and True Average are one-stop shopping linear weights measurements of overall offensive performance that include park adjustments and other sanded edges, all rolled up into a number that looks like OBP (wOBA) or batting average (TAv). Here's an example of how wOBA can correct a misconception created by Max's slugging percentage discovery:
Last year, Adam Dunn produced an OPS 48% better than league average. That's awesome. But his wOBA was just .331 -- slightly better than average. Matt Carpenter, whose OPS was lower but whose hit distribution included many fewer home runs and many more singles, doubles (55) and triples (seven), produced a wOBA of .381.
In other words, OPS says Dunn was a great hitter last season and Carpenter a good one. wOBA shows us that Dunn was an above-average offensive performer while Carpenter was a downballot MVP candidate.
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