Showing posts with label Rougned Odor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rougned Odor. Show all posts

27 March 2017

Here's What 33 Homers Can Do For Your Career

Rougned Odor has an extremely entertaining name. The one bequeathed to him by his father makes our noses itch. The one preceding it, bestowed upon him by (presumably) his mother, makes our brain frown. 

What's more, Roogie packs a punch, as Jose Bautista's jaw can attest. So does his bat, which deposited 33 pitches over the outfield fence in 2016, his third MLB season.


Being 23 and smacking 33 homers has great value, particularly when you're a middle infielder. It's so valuable to the Texas Rangers, that they have reportedly signed him to a six-year $49.5 million contract that takes him through all three years of arbitration and a pair of free agent years. (There is also a seventh-year option.)

Odor would have been in line to make a little more than $500,000 this season before becoming eligible for arbitration after the World Series. Keeping up his current level of play, Odor could have been expected to earn about $24 million in arbitration, and then around $16-$20 million/year in free agency. Moving in early earned the Rangers a discount of $7-$15 million, which seems like a reasonable ending point that puts the major risk on the team.

But at 23, Odor may actually have peaked. The Venezuelan doubled his home run quotient despite walking a meager 19 times. His OBP hovered below .300 and his defense suggests he might be a first baseman by mid-career. For all his power and youth, Odor earned just 2 WAR in 2016, which roughly means he's an average starter at his position -- the keystone. None of these bode well for the future. Few players develop a batting eye with experience, but plenty exhibit one anomalous power season. (FWIW, the projection systems have Odor almost exactly where he was in 2016, with a handful fewer home runs and couple more walks.)

It seems like a reasonable deal for both sides, which is why it got done. Second basemen who leave the yard that often are hard to find. Batters who fan 7X as often as they walk are also hard to find -- in the Majors. We'll see which Odor lingers.




03 June 2014

Getting Rougned Up By Unwritten Rules

With a .730 OPS, Rangers’ rookie second baseman Rougned Odor (pronounced: Roog-ned. No kidding.) is the greatest “Rougned” in baseball history. He’s also the greatest “odor” since Willie Stargell brought air fresheners into the Pirates clubhouse in 1979.
 
Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion not only tied the record for homers in May with 16, he also did a little Joe DiMaggio imitation, fanning just 14 times. David Lough laid down a similar stat line, except the first number represents hits. (Kidding: Lough doesn’t hit that well.)
 
Twins’ Phil Hughes has blossomed since leaving the Bronx. He pitched six starts without a walk before offering a pair against the Yankees in a June 1 win. That pumped his record to 6-1, 3.12 with 56 K/8 BB. And now he’s even got a win in the Bronx under his belt.
 
“Unwritten rules apply to the other team.” –Eric Karros, in an exalted Zen state.
 
For the third time in his career, Adam Wainwright leads the league in wins, and that doesn’t even include his 20-win season. Pitcher wins don’t mean much, but they don’t mean nothing. In his case, a lifetime 107-60 record reflects the fact that he’s an effective workhorse, with a lifetime 3.07 ERA. The only thing keeping him from a Hall path is a late start to his career and TJ surgery that robbed him of 2011 and limited his effectiveness in 2012. 
 
Still in the “pitcher wins don’t mean nothing” meme, Toronto’s Mark Buerhle leads the AL with a 10-1 record, notching his 14th straight 10+ win season. All but once he won at least 12. Soft-tossing Buerhle is also vying for his 14th straight 200+ inning season. At his current rate – which is unsustainable, particularly because he’s allowed just two home runs despite just five whiffs per game – he’ll finish 27-3, 2.33 in 220 innings and all of 129 strikeouts. I’d like to see it.

On the other hand, Jeff Samardzija leads the Majors with a 1.68 ERA for the Cubs, but it took him 11 starts to get his first win. Just putting pitcher wins in perspective. 
 
Charlie Blackmon update: Still hitting .313 with some power, but it’s a mirage at this point. It’s Colorado-fueled (OPS 500 points lower on the road) and mostly the legacy of a .374/.418/.616 April. Blackmon looks like a big lefty who can hit for decent average and occasional pop, and play anywhere in the outfield. And he rocks a sharp beard.
 
June 22 is Coco Crisp Garden Gnome day at the O.Co Coliseum. Tickets are plentiful. (C'mon, have you seen that sewer of a stadium?)