06 May 2014

Let's Rub Robinson Cano's Uniform in Dirt

Dustin Pedroia is an awesome player. A career .301 hitter, he gets aboard at an admirable .367 clip, flashes leather at second, swipes bases efficiently and plays with verve that endears him to teammates. He's posted 39.4 WAR since entering the league in 2006.

Ronbinson Cano also flashes leather at the keystone, though vervelessly. He poses no threat, except to his own team, of running. A career .309 hitter, he's on base a little less than Pedroia but hits for significantly more power -- twice as many home runs and 50% more RBI. He's also outscored Petey by 162 runs. The Yankees and Red Sox have both created scads of crooked numbers during the two players' careers, so that's not an issue. 

Overall, Cano has posted 45.5 WAR in one more season, six wins more valuable overall than his Boston rival. But Mariano Rivera says in his new book that he prefers Pedroia over Cano. And Mariano is an honorable man. 

Rivera says Pedroia burns to win and Cano does not. Well, I burn to win. Unfortunately, my talent lacks the will to exist. 

More importantly, does "desire" really show up in the results? In his career, Pedroia is a slightly worse hitter when he bats with two outs. Cano is too, though he retains more of his value. But Mariano Rivera prefers Pedroia over Cano. And Mariano is an honorable man. 

With runners in scoring position, both players lose some value. Pedroia makes up some ground on Cano, but Cano is still the better hitter.

Pedroia comes alive in high-leverage situations -- when the game is really on the line -- hitting safely nearly 40% of the time. Cano can't match him. But Cano makes it all up in medium leverage situations. It's a point for Petey, but hardly conclusive.

How about the post-season, when it really matters? Ha! They both stink. Cano has been more pungent, but nothing about Pedroia's post-season resume says "burn to win." 

Cano is also getting better; his four best seasons have been his last four.  Pedroia peaked in '08 and has more or less maintained that level of performance.

So why would the sainted Mariano Rivers take a jab at his former teammate and issue an homage to a former rival? The less obvious reason is a soiled uniform on a 5' 8" body. Pedroia makes a habit of throwing his miniature self in the dirt each game, and that gives the appearance of caring. We all adore the scrappy little over-achiever.

The more obvious reason is that Cano committed the cardinal sin of jumping the Yankee ship for the money. It's hysterical to hear the team's fans contort themselves to find that odious. Evidently they discount any accomplishments by Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, CC Sabathia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Wade Boggs, Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter . . . how much time do you have?

Mariano Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher of all time or at least until Craig Kimbrel retires. But that doesn't make him an expert on analyzing the game, any more than it made Joe Morgan or Harold Reynolds or John Kruk. The two second basemen are both potential Hall of Famers, but the talent is worth more than all the world's scrappiness. Take Cano, and if it makes you feel any better, you can rub his uniform in dirt before he puts it on.

1 comment:

JoGo said...

The fact that Rivera was a closer means he paid attention to 11.1% of a game - usually ever 2.5 games. Not a big pool of data to be spouting off about everyday players.

Closers are the most overrated position in baseball. And saves are a statistic that in my mind means very much.