The Dodgers, Braves and Marlins have consummated a trade that significantly boosts L.A.'s starting and relief corps, adds a near-ready middle infielder and cost some hemi-prospects and a boatload of legal tender. This is what former Tampa Bay boy wonder GM Andrew Friendman can do when you give him resources. In fact, Friedman was able to leverage the team's checking account to dislodge talent from cash-poor teams.
For the Marlins, this is another example of a salary dump following a failed signing spree. God help Giancarlo Stanton.
The real head-scratcher here is the Braves, who appear to be so awestruck by a 30-year-old Cuban third base prospect whom they attempted to sign last year that they sold the farm -- and the MLB roster -- to get him and some free cash.
Here's the tally:
The Dodgers add two solid starters in Mat Latos from MIami and Alex Wood from Atlanta to complement Kershaw and Greinke for the stretch run and playoffs. Latos is a veteran #2 or #3; Wood is a very promising left-handed, 24-year-old with a 3.10 lifetime ERA in career 387 innings.
Then they pack the bullpen with Jim Johnson, who was serving capably as Atlanta's closer, and they acquire Jose Peraza, a Triple-A speedster who projects to provide solid middle infield defense and good on-base skills.
The Dodgers didn't get that ace starter many expected them to chase. Instead they got a haul that improves them all over the field.
What it cost them is a bunch of maybe prospects and the acquisition of two dead contracts -- Bronson Arroyo, who is sitting at home collecting his millions, and Mike Morse, whose .214 batting average and inability to play defense suggest he'll be doing the same.
It's nearly the exact opposite in Atlanta, whose role in this deal is hard to fathom. They sacrificed all that Wood has to offer and all the promise that Peraza represents for some salary relief and Hector Olivera, whose multi-million dollar signing bonus was the Dodgers' responsibility. (Johnson is a free agent at season's end, so the only lost value there for the Braves is the opportunity cost of trading him for something worthwhile.)
We should find out soon if Olivera can play; the Braves should activate him right away. They also obtained two minor-league arms and a Miami draft pick. Unless those farm hurlers turn out to be Glavine and Smoltz, it's going to be difficult to justify this deal.
Showing posts with label Miami Marlins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miami Marlins. Show all posts
23 November 2014
What's the Big Deal About $325 Million?
If you're old enough to recall when the baseball free agent floodgates opened and Catfish Hunter snagged a mammoth five-year. $4.25 million deal from the Yankees, your mind is likely long beyond boggled by the contracts today that sound like they are paid in Lira.
Regardless, a third of a billion dollars seems like a windfall, even for a talent as immense as Giancarlo Stanton. The Marlin rightfielder has, by age 24, already slugged 154 homers and accounted for 18 wins against replacement. But Giancarlo Stanton's talent is a windfall for Miami, as are his electric smile and dedication to the craft.
The fact is, $325 million makes perfect sense for this unique player; indeed, it might prove to be too little. Unlike other recent examples of overpayment, this one does not reward the athlete primarily for his past accomplishments or saddle the team with his salary well into his dotage.
Moreover, while the deal is back-loaded the way others are, it is so for a reason: Stanton isn't afforded free agency for three more years, so his contract value is significantly reduced until after the 2017 season.
In year four of the new deal, Stanton will make $25 million. That's an enormous sum, and an enormous sum less than what he is probably going to be worth to the Marlins. Seriously.
Today, a win above replacement is worth, on average, about $6 million to a team. Even if salaries don't continue to increase at the past decade's rate, a 10% annual hike will catapult a win's annual value to $8 million. Let's suppose Stanton delivers just five wins above replacement that season -- significantly less than 2014's production -- he will cover his salary plus another $15 million for the franchise. If instead he improves, he's a gold mine to the team.
But wait, there's more. Giancarlo Stanton has value beyond the field of play. Inking him to a long-term deal was management's clarion call to the fans and other free agents that it has entered another of its periodic win-now spasms. Buy tickets, consider us in free agency; Miami is relevant again.
Come 2015 and beyond, Stanton will anchor a squad awash in nascent talent. Phenom starter Jose Fernandez will be back from TJ surgery at the ripe age of 23, along with promising 25-year-olds Henderson Alvarez and Jarred Cosart. Talented outfielders Christian Yelich and Marcel Ozuna will be 23 and 24 respectively. Jarrod Saltamalachia will turn 30 -- and so shouldn't be trusted -- but is signed for two years to anchor the backstop position. If the farm continues to produce as expected and Miami can lure a player or two to South Beach -- how hard can that be, especially in an industry loaded with Latinos? -- fat crowds and TV contracts will dwarf Stanton's contract.
The formula is the same into his 30s, when the salaries escalate to $32 million. By then, the Trouts, Harpers, Kershaws and their ilk will make such sums look quaint. And then as Stanton's skills erode, so does his salary, down to $25 million at age 38.
The fact is, rich as this arrangement is for Giancarlo, it is even better for Miami -- the franchise, the people and the city. Even the 2020 player opt-out, seen by many as a fly in the ointment, keeps this mega-talent in the city for six more years at below-market prices. If he leaves then for yet fatter paychecks it will demonstrate that the numbers, now considered by some a vast overpay, weren't big enough.
Regardless, a third of a billion dollars seems like a windfall, even for a talent as immense as Giancarlo Stanton. The Marlin rightfielder has, by age 24, already slugged 154 homers and accounted for 18 wins against replacement. But Giancarlo Stanton's talent is a windfall for Miami, as are his electric smile and dedication to the craft.
The fact is, $325 million makes perfect sense for this unique player; indeed, it might prove to be too little. Unlike other recent examples of overpayment, this one does not reward the athlete primarily for his past accomplishments or saddle the team with his salary well into his dotage.
Moreover, while the deal is back-loaded the way others are, it is so for a reason: Stanton isn't afforded free agency for three more years, so his contract value is significantly reduced until after the 2017 season.
In year four of the new deal, Stanton will make $25 million. That's an enormous sum, and an enormous sum less than what he is probably going to be worth to the Marlins. Seriously.
Today, a win above replacement is worth, on average, about $6 million to a team. Even if salaries don't continue to increase at the past decade's rate, a 10% annual hike will catapult a win's annual value to $8 million. Let's suppose Stanton delivers just five wins above replacement that season -- significantly less than 2014's production -- he will cover his salary plus another $15 million for the franchise. If instead he improves, he's a gold mine to the team.
But wait, there's more. Giancarlo Stanton has value beyond the field of play. Inking him to a long-term deal was management's clarion call to the fans and other free agents that it has entered another of its periodic win-now spasms. Buy tickets, consider us in free agency; Miami is relevant again.
Come 2015 and beyond, Stanton will anchor a squad awash in nascent talent. Phenom starter Jose Fernandez will be back from TJ surgery at the ripe age of 23, along with promising 25-year-olds Henderson Alvarez and Jarred Cosart. Talented outfielders Christian Yelich and Marcel Ozuna will be 23 and 24 respectively. Jarrod Saltamalachia will turn 30 -- and so shouldn't be trusted -- but is signed for two years to anchor the backstop position. If the farm continues to produce as expected and Miami can lure a player or two to South Beach -- how hard can that be, especially in an industry loaded with Latinos? -- fat crowds and TV contracts will dwarf Stanton's contract.
The formula is the same into his 30s, when the salaries escalate to $32 million. By then, the Trouts, Harpers, Kershaws and their ilk will make such sums look quaint. And then as Stanton's skills erode, so does his salary, down to $25 million at age 38.
The fact is, rich as this arrangement is for Giancarlo, it is even better for Miami -- the franchise, the people and the city. Even the 2020 player opt-out, seen by many as a fly in the ointment, keeps this mega-talent in the city for six more years at below-market prices. If he leaves then for yet fatter paychecks it will demonstrate that the numbers, now considered by some a vast overpay, weren't big enough.
11 May 2014
Stuff You Didn't Know
Padres Production
...and since that last post, the Padres have scored 10, 9 and 5, all in wins over the Marlins. That means they've scored nearly a quarter of their season's runs in a single three-game series. With the weekend's outburst, San Diego batters have doubled their offensive value over replacement and no longer own the lowest team batting average or on base percentage. Rah.
Marlins Home Cooking
The Miami Marlins are the best team in baseball (17-5) at home. They are the worst team in baseball (3-13) on the road. Their team OPS is 220 points higher at home. Here are their batting splits:
Player BA home BA road
C Jarrod Saltalamachia .348 .146
3B Casey McGehee .346 .224
OF Giancarlo Stanton .354 .217
SS Adeiny Hechavarria .316 .214
OF Christian Yelich .282 .241
OF Marcel Ozuna .308 .203
1B Garret Jones .250 .236
2B Derek Dietrich .263 .206
OF Reed Johnson .360 .231
UT Jeff Baker .216 .150
It's the same for the pitching staff, which has a .261 ERA at home; 5.01 on the road.
Bad news, Florida: the Marlins play their next eight games on the West Coast, none of whose cities are Miami.
Enjoying The Majors Very Machi
Spherical Venezuelan righty Jean Machi is up to the Bigs with the Giants for the third time. He should stick for awhile; in 77 innings this season and last he's whiffed 68 and walked just 17 en route to a .234 ERA. At age 32, Machi has spent 14 years in pro ball, played for nine Minor League teams and been released three times. That Major League minimum of $505,000 roughly doubles his lifetime earnings.
Joey Bats Really Well
Jose Bautista came to the plate four times today and returned to the dugout four times. In Toronto's 38th game, it's the first time Joey Bats hadn't reached safely in one way or another. Coming into the game he was batting .295 but leading the league in walks, leading to a .440 OBP and the league lead in OPS.
The Price Is Wrong
It's been a tough start for Rays lefty David Price. The Cy Young laureate leads the AL in hits allowed and rocks a 4.53 ERA. With 58 punchouts and just six walks, how could that be? Nine home runs is how. He's allowed six walks but nine home runs.
Krush
Brewers left fielder Khris Davis stands 5'11", weighs 190 pounds and owned 11 home run credits coming into this season. Orioles first baseman Chris Davis goes 6'3" 230 and slammed 86 bombs the last two seasons alone. So far in 2014, Khris has out-homered Chris by double.
Yesterday, Meet Tomorrow
In a bounceback season, Albert Pujols is slugging at a 46 home run pace. Mike Trout, batting just .275, owns twice Albert's wins against replacement. Wait 'til he heats up.
At Home Where They Are
The Cardinals are a disappointing 18-19 and five games out coming into Sunday night's game. But they've played 26 of their 38 games away from Busch Stadium. It's the highest percentage of first 38 games played on the road in MLB history. They play 20 of the next 23 games at home. Let's talk after that.
...and since that last post, the Padres have scored 10, 9 and 5, all in wins over the Marlins. That means they've scored nearly a quarter of their season's runs in a single three-game series. With the weekend's outburst, San Diego batters have doubled their offensive value over replacement and no longer own the lowest team batting average or on base percentage. Rah.
Marlins Home Cooking
The Miami Marlins are the best team in baseball (17-5) at home. They are the worst team in baseball (3-13) on the road. Their team OPS is 220 points higher at home. Here are their batting splits:
Player BA home BA road
C Jarrod Saltalamachia .348 .146
3B Casey McGehee .346 .224
OF Giancarlo Stanton .354 .217
SS Adeiny Hechavarria .316 .214
OF Christian Yelich .282 .241
OF Marcel Ozuna .308 .203
1B Garret Jones .250 .236
2B Derek Dietrich .263 .206
OF Reed Johnson .360 .231
UT Jeff Baker .216 .150
It's the same for the pitching staff, which has a .261 ERA at home; 5.01 on the road.
Bad news, Florida: the Marlins play their next eight games on the West Coast, none of whose cities are Miami.
Enjoying The Majors Very Machi
Spherical Venezuelan righty Jean Machi is up to the Bigs with the Giants for the third time. He should stick for awhile; in 77 innings this season and last he's whiffed 68 and walked just 17 en route to a .234 ERA. At age 32, Machi has spent 14 years in pro ball, played for nine Minor League teams and been released three times. That Major League minimum of $505,000 roughly doubles his lifetime earnings.
Joey Bats Really Well
Jose Bautista came to the plate four times today and returned to the dugout four times. In Toronto's 38th game, it's the first time Joey Bats hadn't reached safely in one way or another. Coming into the game he was batting .295 but leading the league in walks, leading to a .440 OBP and the league lead in OPS.
The Price Is Wrong
It's been a tough start for Rays lefty David Price. The Cy Young laureate leads the AL in hits allowed and rocks a 4.53 ERA. With 58 punchouts and just six walks, how could that be? Nine home runs is how. He's allowed six walks but nine home runs.
Krush
Brewers left fielder Khris Davis stands 5'11", weighs 190 pounds and owned 11 home run credits coming into this season. Orioles first baseman Chris Davis goes 6'3" 230 and slammed 86 bombs the last two seasons alone. So far in 2014, Khris has out-homered Chris by double.
Yesterday, Meet Tomorrow
In a bounceback season, Albert Pujols is slugging at a 46 home run pace. Mike Trout, batting just .275, owns twice Albert's wins against replacement. Wait 'til he heats up.
At Home Where They Are
The Cardinals are a disappointing 18-19 and five games out coming into Sunday night's game. But they've played 26 of their 38 games away from Busch Stadium. It's the highest percentage of first 38 games played on the road in MLB history. They play 20 of the next 23 games at home. Let's talk after that.
26 April 2013
Ladies and Gentlemen: Your Houami Marstros
If all the girls who attended the Yale prom were laid end to end, I wouldn't be a bit surprised.
-- Dorothy Parker
And suppose you laid the rosters of the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins end-to-end. What would Dorothy Parker make of their WAR?
The answer resides in the "two wrongs don't make a right" range. In this case, two minor league teams don't make a major league squad, even with 6'5" Giancarlo Stanton swatting big flies and 5'6" Jose Altuve scampering around the basepaths. Where some clubs are rebuilding, these two have been condemned, faced demolition and are now empty lots.
I decided to conduct a little thought experiment -- the kind that got Albert Einstein a Nobel Prize -- by combining the two hapless franchises and examining the results.
There is no spoiler alert here: you already know that nothing plus nothing is still nothing. Besides the exciting Altuve, Houston's best players are a 34-year-old outfielder (Rick Ankiel) who got cut last year after 171 plate appearances in Washington, a 35-year-old first baseman (Carlos Pena) who hasn't hit above .227 in five years, and a fourth starter (Bud Norris) with a 4.41 lifetime ERA. Center fielder Justin Maxwell, who swatted 18 homers in half a season last year, might be considered a prospect, though his 114 strikeouts give pause.
And the Astros could win a best-of-seven series against Miami in three games.
The entire Marlin roster has managed six home runs in 20 games, the same number as Atlanta's rookie fill-in backstop, Evan Gattis. Miami's clean-up hitter is Placido Polanco, a 37-year-old third baseman who slugged .327 last year. Miami's top performer after Stanton is fourth starter Ricky Nolasco, a Florida lifer with a 22-25, 4.58 record the last two years. For lack of any other on-field asset, the Marlins employ starter Kevin Slowey, whose two previous seasons feature an 0-8, 6.67 line in 2011 and a year of minor league banishment in 2012.
Not only don't the Houami Marstros (or the Miahou Aslins) avoid 100 losses, but if you contracted both franchises, the rest of the baseball would be hard-pressed to find roster spots for more than a handful of players. (This may be a disservice to Justin Ruggiano, Miami's center fielder who batted .312/.374/.535 with 13 dingers in half a season last year. But that's also the sum total of the damage his bat has done in 10 years of professional baseball. He's 31 and has never otherwise posted an OBP above .273.)
I considered salting the formula with the Seattle Mariners team photo, which, absent King Felix, is such an insult to the state of Washington that even Oregon is indignant. But it's not the lack of actual major league baseball talent on the Marinaters' roster that is so pungent, it's the putrefying remains of Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Justin Smoak. And Endy Chavez, who once upon a time played in Montreal and has served 36 major league, minor league and winter ball teams in his long horsehide journey.
If you live in a minor league town you'll want to familiarize yourself with the players on these teams. They'll be toiling for your team soon enough.
-- Dorothy Parker
And suppose you laid the rosters of the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins end-to-end. What would Dorothy Parker make of their WAR?
The answer resides in the "two wrongs don't make a right" range. In this case, two minor league teams don't make a major league squad, even with 6'5" Giancarlo Stanton swatting big flies and 5'6" Jose Altuve scampering around the basepaths. Where some clubs are rebuilding, these two have been condemned, faced demolition and are now empty lots.
I decided to conduct a little thought experiment -- the kind that got Albert Einstein a Nobel Prize -- by combining the two hapless franchises and examining the results.
There is no spoiler alert here: you already know that nothing plus nothing is still nothing. Besides the exciting Altuve, Houston's best players are a 34-year-old outfielder (Rick Ankiel) who got cut last year after 171 plate appearances in Washington, a 35-year-old first baseman (Carlos Pena) who hasn't hit above .227 in five years, and a fourth starter (Bud Norris) with a 4.41 lifetime ERA. Center fielder Justin Maxwell, who swatted 18 homers in half a season last year, might be considered a prospect, though his 114 strikeouts give pause.
And the Astros could win a best-of-seven series against Miami in three games.
The entire Marlin roster has managed six home runs in 20 games, the same number as Atlanta's rookie fill-in backstop, Evan Gattis. Miami's clean-up hitter is Placido Polanco, a 37-year-old third baseman who slugged .327 last year. Miami's top performer after Stanton is fourth starter Ricky Nolasco, a Florida lifer with a 22-25, 4.58 record the last two years. For lack of any other on-field asset, the Marlins employ starter Kevin Slowey, whose two previous seasons feature an 0-8, 6.67 line in 2011 and a year of minor league banishment in 2012.
Not only don't the Houami Marstros (or the Miahou Aslins) avoid 100 losses, but if you contracted both franchises, the rest of the baseball would be hard-pressed to find roster spots for more than a handful of players. (This may be a disservice to Justin Ruggiano, Miami's center fielder who batted .312/.374/.535 with 13 dingers in half a season last year. But that's also the sum total of the damage his bat has done in 10 years of professional baseball. He's 31 and has never otherwise posted an OBP above .273.)
I considered salting the formula with the Seattle Mariners team photo, which, absent King Felix, is such an insult to the state of Washington that even Oregon is indignant. But it's not the lack of actual major league baseball talent on the Marinaters' roster that is so pungent, it's the putrefying remains of Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Justin Smoak. And Endy Chavez, who once upon a time played in Montreal and has served 36 major league, minor league and winter ball teams in his long horsehide journey.
If you live in a minor league town you'll want to familiarize yourself with the players on these teams. They'll be toiling for your team soon enough.
16 November 2012
Flounder or Fly: The Marlins and Blue Jays
Sometimes you feel like a nut; sometimes you don't. Almond Joy has nuts; Mounds don't.
Marlins owner Jeff Loria may not have nuts, but he's got balls, catapulting the Federal Reserve at high-profile free agents in order to get a stadium built on the public dime and then jettisoning his shiny new toys months later.
He isn't nuts though. Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, playing beside Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson and Giancarlo Stanton, delivered 93 losses last season. Plan B could hardly be worse.
If this is, in fact, Plan B. Miami backloaded the big money contracts with a dump truck, perhaps so future trade partners would endure the bulk of the burden. Buehrle signed for $6 million in '12 (a big pay cut) but $48 million over the next three years. Reyes gets $10 million each of his first two seasons (also a pay cut) and $22 million each of the last four. Bell also traded a small downgrade to $6 million in year one for $9 million in years two-through-four, a contract already $6 million too fat.
But that's a problem for another team. Bell is now the D-backs' albatross, with help from an $8 million Marlin subsidy. Meanwhile, Reyes and Buehrle, along with every Marlin asset not named Stanton, will henceforth toil in Ontario while Miami pursues its post-World Series formula of stocking up prospects and cashing in on the cheap.
Except that it doesn't appear Loria got much in the futures market from the Blue Jays, almost certainly because of the artificially high price of his asset bundle. Enjoy your gaudy new nuthouse, Miamiheads! No lines at the ticket windows!
The Blue Jays are a lot poorer right now, but they aren't nuts. GM Alex Anthopoulos, who managed last year to trade Vernon Wells's toxic contract and get a better player in return, is striking when the iron is hot. Yankee teeth are getting long, Boston is back-pedaling and Baltimore's fairy godmother is busy waving her wand at Notre Dame. The AL East is as ripe for the taking as it's ever been and Double-A is pouncing, cost-be-damned. He's getting help from the Loonie too: having once cowered in the greenback's shadow, the Canadian dollar now looks eye-to-eye at its devalued American cousin.
Even after shopping for stars at the Marlins Everything Must Go sale and inking the discount purchase of presumably unjuiced Melky Cabrera, the Jays have holes. Adding Johnson and Buehrle gives them just three good starters. An outfield of Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus and Melky Cabrera could be sick, or if the latter two revert to previous form, could make Canadians sick. There are plenty of other issues, but plenty of time to purchase solutions.
We'll find out in 2013 whether the fishy Marlin strategy or the soaring Blue Jay formula pays dividends.
Marlins owner Jeff Loria may not have nuts, but he's got balls, catapulting the Federal Reserve at high-profile free agents in order to get a stadium built on the public dime and then jettisoning his shiny new toys months later.
He isn't nuts though. Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, playing beside Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson and Giancarlo Stanton, delivered 93 losses last season. Plan B could hardly be worse.
If this is, in fact, Plan B. Miami backloaded the big money contracts with a dump truck, perhaps so future trade partners would endure the bulk of the burden. Buehrle signed for $6 million in '12 (a big pay cut) but $48 million over the next three years. Reyes gets $10 million each of his first two seasons (also a pay cut) and $22 million each of the last four. Bell also traded a small downgrade to $6 million in year one for $9 million in years two-through-four, a contract already $6 million too fat.
But that's a problem for another team. Bell is now the D-backs' albatross, with help from an $8 million Marlin subsidy. Meanwhile, Reyes and Buehrle, along with every Marlin asset not named Stanton, will henceforth toil in Ontario while Miami pursues its post-World Series formula of stocking up prospects and cashing in on the cheap.
Except that it doesn't appear Loria got much in the futures market from the Blue Jays, almost certainly because of the artificially high price of his asset bundle. Enjoy your gaudy new nuthouse, Miamiheads! No lines at the ticket windows!
The Blue Jays are a lot poorer right now, but they aren't nuts. GM Alex Anthopoulos, who managed last year to trade Vernon Wells's toxic contract and get a better player in return, is striking when the iron is hot. Yankee teeth are getting long, Boston is back-pedaling and Baltimore's fairy godmother is busy waving her wand at Notre Dame. The AL East is as ripe for the taking as it's ever been and Double-A is pouncing, cost-be-damned. He's getting help from the Loonie too: having once cowered in the greenback's shadow, the Canadian dollar now looks eye-to-eye at its devalued American cousin.
Even after shopping for stars at the Marlins Everything Must Go sale and inking the discount purchase of presumably unjuiced Melky Cabrera, the Jays have holes. Adding Johnson and Buehrle gives them just three good starters. An outfield of Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus and Melky Cabrera could be sick, or if the latter two revert to previous form, could make Canadians sick. There are plenty of other issues, but plenty of time to purchase solutions.
We'll find out in 2013 whether the fishy Marlin strategy or the soaring Blue Jay formula pays dividends.
20 July 2012
Fish Or Cut Bait: When Marlins Flounder
Grab the Advil; I just made you general manager of the Miami Marlins. You've got a spiffy new neo-gaudy downtown ballpark, a Spanish-speaking (but non-thinking) manager, a stunning young slugger named Giancarlo, and a boatload of high-priced free agents, from the electrifying shortstop to the shutdown closer. You were going to battle the Phillies for the top spot in the NL East.
Which is exactly what you're doing as long as we read the paper upside down. It's no consolation to you that the Phils are playing more like the Dr. Phils. Your squad is four games under .500 and 10 games out of first 5/9ths of the way into the season. They've been outscored by all but four teams in the Majors and the pitching is below average as well.
Your stud hot-cornerman has failed to rebound from a strife-filled 2011, recouping his power but not his on base skills or any defensive acumen. Your entire starting staff -- thought to be a strength -- has flirted with average but gotten few dates. Your high-priced free agents have run the gamut from good to godawful:
Mark Buehrle 2011: 3.59 ERA, 2.4 K/BB, 31 starts/205 innings
Mark Buehrle 2012: 3.13 ERA, 4.2 K/BB, 32 starts/218 innings*
Jose Reyes 2011:.877 OPS, 39/46 steals, worth 6.1 wins
Jose Reyes 2012: .714 OPS, 36/43 steals*, worth 2.9 wins*
Heath Bell 2012: 6.21 ERA, 1.70 K/BB, 11 blown saves*
*on pace
And now the trade deadline looms as your playoff hopes fade. Nearly every team thinks it's in the hunt, tilting the market in favor of sellers like you. But what are you selling?
Your Marlins are not a rebuilding team. They plan to compete next year, at the latest. Flipping your marketable players for farmhands doesn't help your club in 2013 and 2014 when you expect to be in contention. Besides, you're trying to fill the seats against the competition of beaches, nightlife and endless diversions; another salary dump will not endear you to the fans.
Tis a puzzlement. Having emptied the vault for a World Series run, your three choices are: 1. Go all in on this season, trading more future stock for free agents. 2. Trade the present for a shot at the future . . . again. 3. Probably your best choice -- do basically nothing and hope you're better next year.
Whichever choice you make, you'll want a goodly share of ibuprofen.
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Whichever choice you make, you'll want a goodly share of ibuprofen.
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07 December 2011
Binge & Purge In Little Havana
Which team would you rather root for?
Team Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total Wins
Team A: 85-77 85-77 85-77 85-77 85-77 425
Team B: 97-65 97-65 97-65 65-97 65-97 421
Miami Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria understands that pennants fly forever, which is why he prefers option 2. That's the only way to explain his recent Christmas shopping binge for shortstop Jose Reyes, closer Heath Bell and starter Mark Buehrle at the low-low price of $191 million, and his offer to leverage all of South Beach for first baseman Albert Pujols.
Loria is trying to recreate the binge and purge Marlins of 1997 and 2003, who won the World Series with gargantuan payrolls that were promptly jettisoned. During that same period, the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros had consistently good teams at reasonable prices, but nothing to show for it.
On the face of it, these contracts are all too rich for too long. Miami will be paying Mark Buehrle ace money ($14.5 million/year) until he's 37. The six year, $106 million contract for Jose Reyes covers at least four DL stints. Giving any closer not named Mariano three years is folly, particularly one coming off a 34% dip in his strikeout rate.
What's really folly, though, is worrying about your team's record in five years when there's a World Series to be won the very next season. With Reyes scampering and Pujols, Mike Stanton & Hanley Ramirez swatting big flies, the Marlins will offer fans at their new downtown ballpark a wholesome helping of runs to back a rotation of Josh Johnson, Buehrle, Anibel Sanchez, Javier Vazquez and Ricky Nolasco, along with Bell in the pen.
There are plenty of question marks in that starting staff; most notably, Johnson, the ace, missed most of 2011 with shoulder issues; Vazquez finished the season as Dr. Jekyll (8-3, 2.15) after a first half of Mr. Hyde-your-eyes (5-8, 5.23). But what team doesn't have mound concerns? The '11 Red Sox crammed six good starters onto their roster and couldn't find two live arms as their season slipped into oblivion.
So Loria and his staff are punting years four, five and six for three solid shots at late October games under New Marlins Ballpark's retractable roof. There will be hell to pay when the team is shelling out 32 extra large for a hobbled shortstop and a defunct 37-year-old lefty after that, but the last of it will come off the books following the '17 season and then the good people of Miami can hold their breath while management dives in again.
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