The Pogo Stick Effect and Success in Toronto

"There's nothing I hate worse than nothing. Nothing keeps me up at night. I toss and turn over nothing. Nothing could cause a great big fight."  Edie Brickell & the New Bohemians


Energized by the all-in importation of cast-off stars, the Toronto Blue Jays lost 88 games and finished in the AL East cellar last season. So in the off-season, GM Alex Anthopoulos evaluated his squad, surveyed the landscape, and decided that his work was done. 

Sure, he upgraded a woeful catching corps by inking Dioner Navarro and a couple of moundsmen, including Tomo Ohka, whose last good season was with Montreal. But aside from that, these are your father's Toronto Blue Jays.

Canadians had to be wondering whether the club was short on loonies or just complacent. Now a third of the way through 2014 they're deciding whether Anthopoulos is brilliant or lucky to be sitting comfortably atop the AL East.

I'd vote for smart. Anthopoulos was counting on the pogo stick effect, the same one that gave us the 1991 Twins, the 2012 Giants and, in reverse, the 2013 Nationals and 2014 Pirates. 

The theory is simple and familiar. Uber-talented teams that vastly under-perform for reasons other than age are likely to bounce back the following year. Lightly-talented clubs that over-perform have the same tendency, in reverse. 

The '87 and '88 Twins won their division, but scuffled with the same core lineup in '89 and '90. Still anchored by Hrbeck, Puckett, Gagne, Gene Larkin and catcher Brian Harper, Minnesota rebounded in '91 and won the most dramatic World Series in baseball history. In the interim, GM Andy McPhail had overhauled the pitching but left the lineup alone on the expectation that they would deliver according to their talent.

The Giants, repeat champs in 2012, slumped badly in '13 and altered virtually nothing, en route to baseball's best record thus far. Only two regulars are different: Tim Hudson replaced Barry Zito in the rotation (duh.) and Mike Morse stepped in when Melky Cabrera bolted.

The Nats flipped the paradigm when they finally busted out with the Majors' best record from their raw young talent in 2012 following years of futility. Management had expected another year of youth an inexperience that year and got it instead in 2013, when Washington danced around .500 most of the season.

A similar scenario was sketched out for the Pirates this year in this space, and they are delivering. They broke out with 94 wins a year early and are paying the piper this season.

Which brings us to the Blue Jays. They reeled in too much talent in 2013 -- to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion they added Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera -- to fail for long. Though Johnson has flamed out and Dickey has failed to live up to billing, the rest of the crew is performing admirably (so far.)

The Jays have hit a rough patch in the last week and there's still plenty of time for the wheels to come off. But their success so far isn't a shock if you look at the names in the lineup. It shows that sometimes the best course of action, even following failure, is nothing.