If you want to see advanced metrics in action, pay attention to Cardinals starter Shelby Miller.
Going into today's game against the stumbling Braves, Miller sported a 3-2 record and 3.15 ERA. Extrapolated to a full season, he would be 15-10, 3.15, which looks a lot like last year's 15-9, 3.06.
But it's nothing like that. Because in 34 innings this year. Shelby had allowed 51 base runners (thanks to a league-leading 21 walks) and a disconcerting seven home runs (also league-leading.) He has fanned 26, not nearly enough to temper the damage. This is not the work of a 3.15 ERA pitcher. It's the work of a 6.19 ERA pitcher (according to the advanced metrics.)
Miller has kept his ERA low by flexing muscles he likely doesn't have. First, he's had six-plus runs scored for him twice. Not surprisingly, they account for two of his three wins.
More to the point, the 23-year-old righty has been death with runners on. Opponents are batting .163 against him with men on base. He's held them to .043 with runners in scoring position.
Perhaps that sounds to you like Miller bears down with runners on. If that's the case, his pitching coach needs to smack him upside his head. Anyone who can pitch that way when they focus should focus more.
Far more likely, says 120 years of baseball experience, Miller is cashing in good karma. But the karma bank will be overdrawn soon enough and then one of three things will happen:
1. Miller will stop handing out free passes like they're condom samples in a high school.
2. He will do a better job keeping the ball in the park.
3. Payback will be a bitch.
In the game against the Braves, Miller split the difference and picked up another win. In five frames he allowed eight hitters to reach. But he put the kibosh on the long ball and got good relief support, holding Atlanta to two runs in a 4-3 win.
Even that can't go on very long, so keep an eye on Shelby Miller's ERA going forward. History predicts it will rise with the temperatures as spring turns to summer.
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