The Pogo Stick Effect and Success in Toronto

"There's nothing I hate worse than nothing. Nothing keeps me up at night. I toss and turn over nothing. Nothing could cause a great big fight."  Edie Brickell & the New Bohemians


Energized by the all-in importation of cast-off stars, the Toronto Blue Jays lost 88 games and finished in the AL East cellar last season. So in the off-season, GM Alex Anthopoulos evaluated his squad, surveyed the landscape, and decided that his work was done. 

Sure, he upgraded a woeful catching corps by inking Dioner Navarro and a couple of moundsmen, including Tomo Ohka, whose last good season was with Montreal. But aside from that, these are your father's Toronto Blue Jays.

Canadians had to be wondering whether the club was short on loonies or just complacent. Now a third of the way through 2014 they're deciding whether Anthopoulos is brilliant or lucky to be sitting comfortably atop the AL East.

I'd vote for smart. Anthopoulos was counting on the pogo stick effect, the same one that gave us the 1991 Twins, the 2012 Giants and, in reverse, the 2013 Nationals and 2014 Pirates. 

The theory is simple and familiar. Uber-talented teams that vastly under-perform for reasons other than age are likely to bounce back the following year. Lightly-talented clubs that over-perform have the same tendency, in reverse. 

The '87 and '88 Twins won their division, but scuffled with the same core lineup in '89 and '90. Still anchored by Hrbeck, Puckett, Gagne, Gene Larkin and catcher Brian Harper, Minnesota rebounded in '91 and won the most dramatic World Series in baseball history. In the interim, GM Andy McPhail had overhauled the pitching but left the lineup alone on the expectation that they would deliver according to their talent.

The Giants, repeat champs in 2012, slumped badly in '13 and altered virtually nothing, en route to baseball's best record thus far. Only two regulars are different: Tim Hudson replaced Barry Zito in the rotation (duh.) and Mike Morse stepped in when Melky Cabrera bolted.

The Nats flipped the paradigm when they finally busted out with the Majors' best record from their raw young talent in 2012 following years of futility. Management had expected another year of youth an inexperience that year and got it instead in 2013, when Washington danced around .500 most of the season.

A similar scenario was sketched out for the Pirates this year in this space, and they are delivering. They broke out with 94 wins a year early and are paying the piper this season.

Which brings us to the Blue Jays. They reeled in too much talent in 2013 -- to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion they added Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera -- to fail for long. Though Johnson has flamed out and Dickey has failed to live up to billing, the rest of the crew is performing admirably (so far.)

The Jays have hit a rough patch in the last week and there's still plenty of time for the wheels to come off. But their success so far isn't a shock if you look at the names in the lineup. It shows that sometimes the best course of action, even following failure, is nothing.

Nothing From Nothing Leaves Nothing: The Soriano Trade

"Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'. You gotta have somethin', if you wanna be with me."
Billy Preston, 1975

Reports out of everywhere but the Walterboro Pennysaver say that the Yankees will trade minor league pitcher Corey Black to the Cubs for a return of Alfonso Soriano to pinstripes. New York will pick up the remainder of this year's gargantuan salary and Chicago will cover all of next year's. That means Soriano doesn't count against the Yankees' payroll number when determining the luxury tax in 2014.

The word "blecch" comes to mind. Or perhaps "yuck." Or "blahhhhh." 

The Cubs could have flipped Soriano for some real prospects at the end of last season. Coming off an .821 OPS hitting year with newfound respect in the clubhouse, the 36-year-old Dominican had some value. Sure, he's roadkill in left field, but a weak-hitting AL team could have used him, assuming the Cubs would eat most of the salary.

But at age 37, his walk rate is back in the sewer, he's dipped below average as a hitter at his position and he's losing his wheels. A 70-point decline in OPS with the arrow pointing in the wrong direction has sapped Soriano of much of his trade value. And so the Cubs must pay $18 million for the privilege of watching Corey Black throw minor league middle relief. Baseball Prospectus says he projects as a seventh-inning guy. That's not much return for a player approaching 400 home runs and 300 steals.

The dearth of right-handed hitting in the Bronx has been well documented. Soriano has popped 10 homers in the last month; all of Yankeedom, eight. Righty batters have socked one home run for the Bombers since June 5th.  NYY's right-handed batting roster has the worst OPS in MLB by 30 points. And so on.

This could explain why Soriano might help the Yankees this year, but . . . do what? They have by far outperformed their ability as a team and are less likely to be relevant in October than Anthony Weiner. The injuries, the ARod soap opera, the careers in twilight, the empty farm system -- this team needs to retool, not buy old tools and reuse them.  At age 38 next year, Soriano will cause car wrecks in the field, but on the Yankees, with a plethora of aging DHs, that's where he must play. A team that ought to be cashing in expiring contracts and building for the future has saddled itself with yet another declining veteran.

In sum, this trade is a desperate move by both parties who each seem to have lost an opportunity in the bargain. Neither side sacrificed anything of value, but neither received anything of value either. Billy Preston would be proud.