R.I.P. Bob Welch. But Can We Have Your Cy Young Back?

It's very sad news that former Dodger and A's Bob Welch died of a sudden heart attack on Tuesday, way too young. Welch's untimely death is another sad reminder how fortunate we all are to have the luxury to obsess about things, like games, that don't really matter.

Welch enjoyed a stellar 17-year career in which he got credit for 211 wins, twirled 28 shutouts, fanned nearly 2000 batters, pitched in four World Series and eight league championship series, and earned 44 wins against replacement.

Bob Welch will best be remembered for the 1978 World Series showdown with Reggie Jackson in which he whiffed Mr. October on nothing but heaters. It's often forgotten that Jackson earned revenge with hits later in the Series -- and so did the Yankees -- sweeping the last four games for the championship.

The other claim to fame for the former first-round pick out of Eastern Michigan was his 1990 Cy Young for a 27-5, 2.95 season. No other pitcher has notched as many wins in the last 42 years.

Today, of course, we're not so easily romanced by big win totals. Examining Welch's record more deeply, it begins to deteriorate.

First, he pitched for a 103-win squad in the offensive sinkhole in Oakland. And that ERA -- 25% below league average back before steroids were prevalent -- is artificially sweetened by 12 unearned runs. His 3.40 RA is somewhat less impressive.

Welch also issued 77 walks, fanned just 127 and surrendered 26 home runs. Today we know that profile is more like a 4.19 ERA performance but for Lady Luck's accompaniment, which dampened opponents' batting average on balls in play to the unwhistleable tune of .255. 

He received six or more runs of support in 13 of his appearances and fewer than three runs just thrice. And he pitched 27 of his 35 starts against sub-.500 teams. In other words, the stars aligned in every conceivable way for Bob Welch that year, transforming a good pitcher into a 27-game winner.

In fact, Bob Welch was the 12th best starter in the American League that season, worth just three wins above replacement. The writers seemed to understand that when they voted Roger Clemens third in the MVP race for his 21-6, 1.93 dominance with 228 strikeouts. Clemens earned 10.6 WAR for his efforts -- more than three times as much as Welch, who finished ninth in the MVP balloting.

In addition to Clemens, Welch's teammate Dave Stewart (22-11, 2.56), the Angels' Chuck Finley (18-9, 2.40) and Bobby Witt (17-10, 3.36), KC's Kevin Appier (12-8, 2.76), Toronto's Dave Stieb (18-6, 2.93) and David Wells (11-6, 3.14), Seattle's Erik Hanson (18-9, 3.24), Boston's Mike Boddicker (17-8, 3.36), the White Sox' Greg Hibbard (14-9, 3.16) and Nolan Ryan of Texas (13-9, 3.44) are all credited today with superior seasons.

In fact, 1990 wasn't nearly Bob Welch's best season. He posted lower ERAs three times in his career and achieved higher WAR four times, but without the gaudy win totals. In those days, all of baseballdom confused (okay, Bill James and a few acolytes didn't) the arbitrary assignment of pitcher wins as vessels of significance. We know better today. I just wish Bob Welch were around to discuss it.

A Bunch of Lohsers

Here's my theory: Milwaukee Brewer management is so enamored with its crackling-smart win-now strategy of 2011 -- during which they leveraged acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum for the last year of Prince Fielder's tenure in Wisconsin to a division title -- that they decided to reprise the approach this year.

That would explain why they've paid $33 million and their top draft pick for three years of 34-year-old flash-in-the-pan Kyle Lohse.  If Lohse is a number two starter, as his contract suggests, then I'm a number two pencil.

Last year, Lohse pitched the most innings, won the most games, lost the fewest, struck out the most, had the most quality starts, the best K/BB rate, the lowest WHIP and by far the lowest ERA of his journeyman career. After 10 seasons of 88-98, 4.80, Lohse has responded to Dave Duncan's tutelage in St. Louis for a pair of 30-11, 3.10 seasons.

So he's a new pitcher, right? Yeah, not so much. Lady luck has escorted the California righty the last two years, and left him in the care of good Cardinal defense when she's been unavailable. Whether she returns for a third year is up to her, and no one ever accused Milwaukee's fielding of aptitude.

Moreover, and sadly for the team's faithful, it's not 2011 anymore. Fielder, Greinke and Marcum are gone and the Brewers are making a beeline for the basement in the NL Central. Even if Lohse's second act continues, and that's not the way to bet, he might catapult them to .500 in 2013. But he'll cost them in future years, because signing a free agent offered a deal by his incumbent team costs a first-round pick, something the Brews' barren system could little afford to sacrifice.

A lot of mediocre teams are acting as if there are eight extra Wild Cards instead of one and flipping the future for a very uncertain present. It's going to work for someone someday and maybe this is the Brewers' year. But probably not, and Lohse's signing reduces the odds that the next few will be their years either.