Questions To Ask Ourselves

With a flurry of trades and signings now in our wake, a couple of questions should be occurring to us as we contemplate which teams have improved and which are reeling.

Question: What do the Yankees know about Robinson Cano?
Explanation: The Bombers declined to pay Hall of Fame prospect Robby Cano $24 million for 10 years, but they shelled out $22 million for seven years of oft-injured Jacoby Ellsbury, who has produced OPS above league average twice since he began playing regularly in 2008.

The $97 million difference is nothing to sneeze at, even if you have the Yankees' immunity system. But these players are not equivalents. Cano's value to NY since '08 is roughly double Ellsbury's (36 wins against replacement versus 18), and though Cano is a year older and plays a less demanding defensive position, previous history suggests he will last at second base longer than Ellsbury will stay in center. 

So why did the Yankees let Cano walk? Incumbent teams know more about their free agents than anyone else does. They know if he's a jerk in the clubhouse, if he's lazy or stupid or annoying, if he's distracted by a woman or if he'd be lost without his ailing mother. They know what nagging injuries he's been papering over and whether he's losing his mojo in the weight room.

When the home team waves off its own player it should give the signing team pause. So what do the Yankees know?

Question: What do the Red Sox know about Jacoby Ellsbury?
Explanation: Already sporting a natural center fielder (Curtis Granderson, a free agent himself) and speedsters in the outfield corners (Brett Gardner and Ichiro) the Yanks put $153 million and seven years on the table for Ellsbury, at least three years and $93 million more than they could have spent to keep the Grandy Man. (The Mets pledged $60 million over four years to Granderson.)

By letting Ellsbury go, Boston's already precarious outfield now features Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava and a big question mark currently causing New Englanders to cringe at the answer "Jonny Gomes." Why would a championship-caliber team allow their outfield anchor to walk when the alternative is a giant hole?

It's not like the Red Sox went on a spending spree elsewhere. They forked over $8.25 million to replace Jarrod Saltalamacchia with reliable A.J. Pierzynski and laid out $4.75 for reliever Edward Mujica, raising their 2013 payroll by roughly nothing. (Actually, Baseball-Reference.com projects the Sox' payroll will decline $13 million, an amazing result following a World Series parade.) So what do the Red Sox know?

Question: What does Philadelphia management know....period?
Explanation: Oh man is it going to hurt like a Mighty Mighty Bosstones concert in Philly this coming season. Like a hobo in a Brooks Brothers suit, the Phils will sport the second most expensive NL roster while battling Miami for relegation to Double-A. For $159 million, here's some of what the City of Brotherly Love gets:

Jimmy Rollins, 35 (.2 WAR in 2013) $11 million
Carlos Ruiz, 35 (1.7 WAR) $8.5 million
Chase Utley, 35 (3.5 WAR) $15 million
Jonathan Papelbon, 33 (1.5 WAR) $13 million
Mike Adams, 35 (.3 WAR) $7 million
and of course, Ryan Howard, 34 (.6 WAR) $25 million

That's $80 million for an eight-game edge on the bottom-feeding Astros. GM Ruben Amaro can expect a Valentine's Day card from (Washington GM) Mike Rizzo.

Question: What do the Kansas City Royals think they are?
Explanation: When they traded away the future (Wil Myers) for James Shields, they didn't realize they were relinquishing the present as well. They have Big Game James under contract for one more season following a Shields-infused 86-win campaign that had them in the Wild Card mix until the very end. That gives KC 2014 to make a real run at contention in the hopes that Cleveland was a fluke or Detroit stumbles without its Prince. (Better hope for the fluke...)

So what have the Royals done to prepare? They filled a gaping hole at second by signing Omar Infante to a four-year deal. He replaces replacement-level Chris Getz, adding two-three wins at the keystone. They flipped a below-replacement relief pitcher named Will Smith in the pursuit of happyness with rightfielder Norichika Aoki -- another two-three wins. And they inked lefty starter Jason Vargas -- another two wins -- to a four-year deal that displaces one of the Royals legion of fifth starters. While they lost a win or so by trading right-field defensive specialist David Lough, they strengthened third base by acquiring right-swinging Danny Valencia, who will platoon with southpaw-challenged Mike Moustakis.

That's a string of small but significant under-the-radar moves, but the Royals still lack power (Alex Gordon's 20 dingers paced the club) and starting pitching behind Shields (they'll not get 24 wins again out of Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie). If they have visions of playoff plums dancing in their heads they need to swing at least one more deal. Otherwise they're stuck in the middle lane, unable to turn right into rebuilding or left into contention.

Question: Are the Pirates standing pat because they think they're good enough to repeat or because they realize 2014 won't be their year?
Explanation: If Pittsburgh GM Neil Huntington is honest with himself, he realizes that the patron saint of lost causes had to be smiling down on PNC Park for the Bucs' surprise party to come off so swimmingly in 2013. In 2014, Jeff Locke's not slipping a 3.52 ERA into their drink. Mark Melancon's not doing the 1.39 ERA hustle or the 8.75 K/BB tango, at least not for 71innings. Justin Morneau won't be back for a .370 OBP surprise. Andrew McCutchen can't possibly top last year's party favors. And the team won't outplay their fundamentals by six wins. So if they want to avoid starting a new streak, he'll need to start inviting some different folks to his 2014 party.

Instead, the Pirates made 1B Garret Jones (.289 OBP) walk the plank, watched Morneau jump ship,  brought back on board SS Clint Barmes's invisible bat (.211/.249/.309) and SP Charlie Morton's inconsistent quality (two years below-3.84 ERA, two years above-6.14 ERA), and welcomed hurler Edinson Volquez (4.94 ERA since 2009) to serve as fifth mate. That's a whole lot of Nobody McNobodywicz, and it leaves Pittsburgh, at 85 wins of quality, steering an even more middle course than Kansas City. 

The Buccos may say "Aaaargh" to big name free agents, but they need to bid "Ahoy" to some improvements or it's going to look ugly as an eye-patch. The roster cries out for a league-average starter and an outfield bat; a lefty platoon-mate for Gaby Sanchez (200 points worse OPS against righties) would even be parrot-on-the-shoulder. Absent that, don't say you weren't warned.