The New Paradigm in Hall of Fame Declines

Albert Pujols, who smacked the 600th home run of his Hall of Fame career this week, may be a pioneer in career decline.

You probably remember the sad declines of some great players. Mickey Mantle nearly unable to walk. Willie Mays a pathetic shadow of himself. Steve Carlton 6-15, 6.40 with as many walks as strikeouts.

But those guys hung on a year or two too long. They wanted to play. They didn't know anything else.

Pujols's performance has diminished seven of the last eight seasons. He  became a below average player last year and has sunk to replacement level this year. By next season, his 18th, he will be unrosterable.

But he will be rostered. The Angels inked him to one of the worst contracts of all time, a 10-year, $240 million deal at age 31.

Pujols will have four more years of payments after this, untenable, season.

Why Keep Playing? 114 Million Reasons
There is no reason but money for Pujols to stay on. He will not reach homer number 700. He will suffer injury. He will lower his lifetime batting average, now just eight points clear of .300, and his OBP, which has fallen below .400.

If Prince Albert were to walk away at the conclusion of this campaign, he would leave $114 million on the table. That he's already cashed a Powerball ticket -- $230 million over his career -- does not make it any more palatable to turn down $114 million doing what you love, even if you never get out of the dugout.

It is possible, depending on whether the Angels simply pay him off and turn him into a roving ambassador, that Pujols will don the uniform for five full seasons while contributing negatively to Anaheim's pennant thrust. 

That is an inner circle Hall of Fame decline. No one has quite done that.

Cabrera and Wright Too
But it may become the new norm, at least for a while. Miguel Cabrera has stumbled to below average offense so far this year. With six more years and $184 million guaranteed on his contract after 2017, he could also become a massive albatross in Detroit.

The Mets suffer the same ignominy with David Wright, who can't even get on the field. Including 2017, Wright has four seasons of guaranteed payment, worth $67 million to him. For $60 million from 2015-2017 he has offered the Mets a nice smile and three-tenths of a win.

Teams may have learned not to sign these ridiculous, backloaded contracts anymore. We saw what Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion had to settle for this winter. 

For a few more years though, some former great players will limp up to the plate and flail fecklessly at fastballs simply because they are getting paid for past deeds.

How To Add 150 Points of OPS Overnight

Prior to Tuesday night, Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett was hitting .270/.308/.450 with three homers and 20 RBIs. He had produced 0.4 WAR in 46 games this season. 

One day later, he stands at .302/336/.578 with seven homers and 30 RBIs. He is now a well-above-average hitter and has produced 1.2 WAR in 47 games.

That's what a four-homer, five-for-five game will do for a slappy utility player.

By the way, the four-homer game is rarer yet than a perfect game, hitting for the cycle or Scott Kazmir DL stints. The list of four-homer performers (17 of them) includes:

Lou Gehrig,
Gil Hodges,
Joe Adcock,
Rocky Colavito,
Willie Mays,
Mike Schmidt,
Bob Horner,
Shawn Green,
Carlos Delgado,
Josh Hamilton.

And now Scooter Gennett.

The smallest number of lifetime homers among the previous 16 is Bobby Lowe's 71. He played for the Boston Beaneaters. 

Gennett is now at 42.

Scooter Gennett. 

Get that launch angle up, friends.

Is There Fire Where There's Smoak?

It might have escaped your attention that MLB bust Justin Smoak, a native of Goose Creek, SC, 20 miles from the source of these words, is enjoying a career 1/3rd of a year in his eighth season.

A spare part most of his career, he was one tooth in the gear the Blue Jays hoped would offset the power output of departed Edwin Encarnacion.

Now Smoak is doing it all by himself. A career .223 hitter, he's delivering .283/.348/.550 with 14 blasts and out-slugging not only Encarnacion (.230 with 10 homers) but also any version of Justin Smoak we've ever seen.

With an OPS 130 points higher than his next best season's, Smoak has, in just the first 50 games of 2017, doubled his lifetime WAR. And he's doing it in a different way than the rest of the sport.

The buzzword today in MLB is launch angle -- swing up so that when you make contact you have a chance at extra bases. It sacrifices some BA and OBP for power. But that was already Justin Smoak's career modus operandi, and while it's kept him in The Show, his sun may have been setting. What has changed for Smoak is the quantity of his upward contact: he's fanning three percent less than league average, compared to six percent more in his previous seven years.

That might not seem like much, but take my word for it, it's the difference between .223 and .283, between replacement-level player and starting first baseman. And the reason seems to be that he's laying off breaking balls outside the strike zone. It's a small adjustment, but the kind that has given us Eric Thames and Aaron Judge and, now, Justin Smoak. So while we're comparing 50 games to 3000 previous trips to the plate, it might be sustainable.

That would be Smoak without the mirrors, and that would be a nice career boost for a guy who seemed headed back to Goose Creek.

Holding Court on the Best Rookie Season

In 1975, rookie Fred Lynn took the American League by storm, earning a Rookie of the Year award and capturing the MVP along with it. He hit a league leading 47 doubles along with seven triples and 21 homers, batting .331/.401/.566 to lead the AL in OPS and won a Gold Glove in center field. His 7.4 WAR was second best among position players that year (behind Rod Carew.)

If it wasn't the greatest rookie season for a position player of all time, it's on the list. You might prefer Ichiro's "rookie" season in 2001 when he hit .350, stole 56 bases and earned 7.7 WAR or Ted Williams's 1939, when he blasted 86 XBH and compiled a .436 OBP en route to 6.7 WAR. Or perhaps you're partial to Albert Pujols and his 88 XBH, .403 OBP and 6.6 WAR that got lost in the drama of 2001.

(It's worth pointing out that Mike Trout's 20-year-old season blows all of these away, but he squandered his rookie status with 123 at-bats at age 19.)

Whatever your preference, it might all soon be moot. If Aaron Judge were to keep this up, he would lead the majors with 57 homers and 136 runs scored. His .326/.433/.691 and exemplary defense in right would be worth 10.5 WAR. In the absence of Trout's league-leading everything else, Judge is the top candidate for both Rookie of the Year and MVP.

The Signs Are Good for More
Can Judge keep this up? No one knows the answer, of course, not even Aaron Judge. We do know that he has passed the first adjustment test. The mammoth right-hander's May was every bit as intimidating as his April and he has shown improved plate discipline over his Minor League career. He's also performing this way despite striking out a jabillion times -- he's on pace for 200 Ks -- but also 100 walks. 

By definition, it's not likely the 25-year-old is quite this, because no one has ever been quite this his freshman season. But it's also quite likely he is something. After all, consider that not-too-shabby list above. If Judge performs at half this rate the rest of the way he's still nearly a seven-win player with close to 40 home runs. 

You've read and heard all the Judge puns, but they miss the point. This guy might just be Aaron.

Three Warm Takes

Over his career, Ben Revere has played 784 games, batted over .290 four out of six full seasons and hit 9 home runs.

J.D. Martinez has hit 8 home runs in his first 17 games of '17. He's batting under .290.

Martinez has produced almost as much offensive WAR (0.9) in those 17 games as Revere has produced since Opening Day 2014 (1.1).

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Mike Trout made all of baseball cry when he tore a ligament in his thumb this past weekend. He's going to have surgery and miss two months. 

So here's the question that will keep us interested this season: can Trout miss two full months of the season and still lead the league in WAR? The two guys closest behind him, Ervin Santana and Aaron Judge, aren't going to keep this up.

------------------------------

Starting soon we will have Major League Baseball without Mike Trout or Bryce Harper. Almost makes me want to watch the Stanley Cup Finals.

The Dodgers Are All About the Playoffs

The Dodgers are acting like an NBA team this year, like the Cavs or Warriors or Spurs. In the NBA, the season is long and meaningless and teams have sewn up spots halfway through the schedule. In baseball, it's not so cut and dried a) because the distribution of talent is not nearly as lopsided and b) because making the playoffs is significantly more difficult and fraught with challenges.

Still the Dodgers have won their division and secured a playoff spot each of the last four years, but they've been stymied on the way to the World Series. A big part of that has been the relative ineffectiveness of all-World starter Clayton Kershaw in the post-season. Could he just be gassed by season's end?

It may be that Dodger brass thinks so. This year, with help from the truncated 7-day and 10-day Disabled List, something new is going on with the Chavez Ravine pitching rotation. Combining a quick hook (average start - 87 pitches) with liberal use of the DL, the team is stashing pitchers between starts and employing six starting arms. Of their first 46 games, Dodgers pitchers had 34 times rested more than four days between starts.

This puts more stress on the relief corps, but again, creative use of the DL can help spell relievers while rostering their temporary replacements. There has never been, and doesn't appear to be now, much patrolling by MLB of DL use.

You might think of this as prophylactic employment of the DL. Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda and Alex Wood have had their injury issues, so limiting their usage by shuttling them back and forth is a clever way of protecting their health.

The purpose of this would seem to be keeping arms fresh for a long playoff run, which can last 21 additional games for a team that gets to the World Series. And frankly, that makes sense, because for the Dodgers, just as for the Cavs and Warriors, it's not a successful season unless they get to the championship series.

Maybe the Snakes Are Better Than We Thought? Nah.

Entering 2017, one could be forgiven for looking kindly upon the chances of the team in Phoenix, anchored as it is by some real talent. Zack Greinke is a true rotation ace. Paul Goldschmidt is a quiet superstar -- maybe the best first baseman in the game. A.J. Pollack and Jake Lamb are stars and David Peralta is another good outfielder.

Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, the measure of a team isn't its cleanup hitter or its ace, but its  #8 hitter, its fourth starter and its set-up guy. Thanks in large part to the disastrous front office tenure of Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart, the Dbacks' cupboard is bare beyond those players named.

Coming into the season, the Dbacks were projected to field among the worst players in the game at catcher, second base, shortstop, and left field.  Add to that the worst bullpen in the Majors, and you have too much for Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb and A.J. Pollack to overcome.

Well, we're 46 games into the season and Arizona has a .587 winning percentage, "on pace" for a 95-win campaign. The reason, in its entirety, is that players at the above-mentioned positions have performed better than league average. When you're expected to be the worst team in the league at your position, and instead your 12th or 13th our of 30, that's a big improvement.

And maybe the team is better than we thought they were. Maybe the kindly lookers were right about them. But probably not.

New research by Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs shows that even though pre-season analytical projections don't have much of a track record, they are more than twice as predictive of a team's performance after Game 50 as a team's performance in the first 50 games of the season is. In other words, the first 50 games can be very deceptive and bear very little relationship to how good a team actually is.


What 's that telling us about the Diamondbacks? It's telling us to take them with a grain of salt. In fact, consider every team's start the same way. If you're a fan of the Giants, Mets and Blue Jays, that's good news. If you like the Brewers, Rockies and Twins, it's not so much.

Just remember one thing: the first 50 games do count. So if the Dbacks are 10 game over .500 and play a mere .500 the rest of the way, they will end the season at 86-76. And that could get them into the Wild Card.

More Stuff About Mike Trout You're Totally Sick Of

Yeah, sorry, this is another Mike Trout episode.  Guy is so freakin' amazing, it's hard not to sing odes to him.

As of May 22, he's hitting .350/.466/.757 with 14 home runs this season. He leads the league in OBP, SLG, OPS and, well, what else you got? He's "on pace" for 57-137-.350 with 36 steals. Just another year.

You know the phenomenon that has been Eric Thames? He's put up unprecedented numbers, almost as awesome as Trout's. Trout has a higher batting average, on base average, slugging percentage, OPS, home runs, RBIs, steals and well, everything but runs scored and air time.

Trout is now the youngest player ever to 150 homers and 150 steals. Not exactly a surprise, right?

He's jumped to fourth on the Angels' home run chart -- after five and a half years.

He's got more lifetime WAR, 52, than Lou Brock, Kirby Puckett and Jim Rice. They're in the Hall of Fame, you know.

He's 9th on the active list for WAR in only his sixth full season. The next player under age 26 is Manny Machado...at 54th. Trout has three times Bryce Harper's WAR.

How Hall of Fame is Trout? He's already over the "Black Ink" measuring tool for an average Hall of Famer. Black ink measure the number of categories a player leads his league in. Trout is at 28.

He's at 98 on Bill James' Hall of Fame monitor, where 100 is the Hall standard. He has already out-earned the average HOF center fielder in peak WAR value. 

That's Trout's first 851 games. If he repeats this performance over his next 851 games, he'll have 104 WAR, more than Joe Morgan, Jimmy Foxx, Eddie Matthews, Cal Ripken and George Brett. And he'd be 30.

Life doesn't work that way, of course. Players can get hurt, exploited, diverted or old. Diving into second base ahead of a catcher's throw 30 times in a season takes its toll. So we'll see.

But we've already seen. Mike Trout is the best ever at this point. Sorry, I just had to point it out again.

Baseball's Golden Age

For some reason, and unlike any other sport, baseball's fans love to denigrate the game and pine for days of yore when everything was better.

We hear constantly about how baseball is too slow, how its popularity is declining, how the umps are all inept, how the playoffs are all wrong and so on.

Although I agree that some changes could be made to goose the pace of games, in every other respect these complaints are unwarranted. More people attend a month of MLB games than the entire NFL schedule. Instant replay has demonstrated how incredibly close many calls are in all sports. Baseball's playoff format might be the best of any major American sport's given the utter ineptitude of the NBA and NHL to fashion a coherent tournament.

(At the risk of beating a long since buried and mourned horse, and of drifting off on a tangent, the NBA, after three desultory rounds of their tournament, is a month later careening to a finals match-up that any casual follower could have predicted last June. In the NHL, one of the conference finalists, the one going home today with a chance to claim a spot in the championship series, lost as many games as it won this season and qualified 16th for the playoffs.)

The Cubs and Red Sox Have Won the World Series, For Godsakes
All of which flooded into my head recently when a petitioner in a Fangraphs chat asked the writer to identify the best era in baseball history. My immediate reaction was, right now! (To his credit, the writer agreed.)

Consider the last 16 years in the Majors. Eleven different teams have won the World Series, and of the three teams that have repeated, one of them hadn't won a Series in 87 years, another in 56. Eight of the winners claimed their first ever title (Diamondbacks, White Sox, Angles) or won for the first time in 28+ years (Giants, Red Sox, Phillies, Royals and Cubs.) Compare that to the often-named Golden Age, when the hardware never moved from The Bronx. Yawn.

It's far beyond that, of course. We've never seen an era of young talent, particularly at the keystone and shortstop positions. Rougned Odor might not even qualify among the game's top 10 second baseman, except when rating right crosses. Yet he slugged 33 home runs last year. A list of the 10 best shortstops includes one player over 29 (30-year-old Brandon Crawford). And we haven't even mentioned the historic starts of Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and the greatest 25-year-old in baseball history. 

Exit Velocity and Launch Angles
You like the guys who bring the heat instead? Basically every 100 mph pitch ever thrown in MLB games has been recorded this decade. We know how fast pitches go because we know more about the game than we could ever have thought to ask two decades ago, thanks to Statcast and advanced baseball analytics.

The second Wild Card, the trade deadline and the concept of the total teardown have created interest in the game across America, even among fan bases rooting for teams bumbling their way to triple-digit losses. You want to get closer to the game? You can tweet to your favorite player and he might answer you. Who needs an autograph?

And don't forget the stadiums. There has never been a ballpark like PNC Park, Camden Yards or AT&T, and we still have Fenway and Wrigley. The game is 150 years old and we're seeing things we've never seen before. It's an amazing time.

You're Living In It
I'm sorry to disappoint you, but baseball has not only never been better, it's never been close. The best era for baseball -- it's today.

And the best news is, it's fixing to be tomorrow too.

My Favorite Player This Year is J.D. Martinez

Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez is pummeling the ball like no one else and he's somehow flying under the radar.

We're now in game number 40-something and Martinez has walked 4.5 times as often as he's struck out. He's batting .500 and nearly two-thirds of his hits have been home runs.

That gives him an OPS of 2.118. Babe Ruth's best was 1.379.

Why is no one paying attention?

Is it because he's not in the NY or LA markets?

Is it because of his team's mediocrity?

Is it discrimination against Latinos?

Is it because he's played in six games?

Maybe that's it. 25 plate appearances.

Gotcha.

What Eric Thames Figured Out

 You might be surprised to know that Eric Thames isn't any better at slugging than he was when he began his career.

It's true. Thames arrived in the Big Leagues in 2011 with plenty of power. The muscular 210-pounder slammed 30 home runs in his only full Minor League season at Double-A and went yard 12 times in half a season at the Big League level the following year.

Sometimes it's what you don't do that makes you better. Thames figured out in Korea that he had to stop diving after pitches out of the zone. Korean hurlers don't throw as fast, so they have to use location to get batters out. Once Thames learned patience overseas he began swatting like no others.

Thames's primary improvement from his pre-Korea days is his ability to scoff at the bad stuff and wait for a pitch he could drive. Thames has the 11th best rate of laying off pitches outside the strike zone -- known as O-swing rate -- at 20.8%. That compares to 36.8% in 2011 before he headed east.

It's more testament to the fact that the biggest, strongest and most athletic ball players are not necessarily the best hitters. Combine athletic ability with focus, maturity and patience and you get a star from material that yielded marginal Major Leaguer on talent alone.

I Want My Team to Trade for Matt Harvey Right Now

Matt Harvey is a mess. You may have noticed. The Dark Knight appears to have struck midnight and turned into a pumpkin. So, of course, I want him for my team.

Following stellar freshman and sophomore half-seasons for the Mets, a visit to Dr. Andrews in 2015 and then a bounce-back junior year, Harvey stood at 25-18, 2.53 with 449 strikeouts and just 94 walks in 427 innings heading into last season. He lived off 98 mph heat, two wicked secondary pitches, and praise from hitters and former pitchers alike. His future seemed assured

But the unsettling stirrings were already there, even beyond the serious health issue. Harvey and his agent, Darth Vader Scott Boras, had complained about overuse heading into the playoffs after his TJ surgery, a complaint they later backed down from. Then 2016 turned into a disaster, with his fastball cooling to 92-93, his ERA ballooning to 4.86 and an eventual diagnosis of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.

Get Rid of the Bum
Coming into 2017, no one knew what to expect. With less heat, Harvey could no longer simply overpower hitters. Questions remained about whether he could retire batters with a different pitching style than the fastball-first repertoire that got him there. And then last weekend, when Harvey got sauced and missed a game, then feigned self-righteousness and threatened to appeal the resulting suspension. He eventually backed down and acknowledged his immaturity.

Met fans would like to be rid of Matt Harvey, but the team labors in the real world. In that place, Harvey's value is at its lowest point, given his lack of performance, character and health. Although he has regained some of his high heat, the early results this season, following last year's travails, suggest this knight will never regain his armor.

So what is Matt Harvey at this point? Tantalizing potential and nothing more.

The problem for Met brass is this: every other team knows all this, decreasing Harvey's trade value to near-nothing With team control ending after next season, even a mediocre Harvey will soon get much more expensive. If Sandy Alderson wants to rid the franchise of a perceived cancer, he has no choice but to trade him for an empty gesture.

Give Me A Shot at the Knight
The Mets really have no choice but to hang onto Harvey and see what he can offer. Even if he's not the Cy Young candidate he appeared on his way to becoming, league-average starters have tremendous value, particularly to a team with Wild Card aspirations and a disintegrating rotation. But if they decide to dump him, I want my team to snag him.

The reason is that it won't take much to secure this lottery ticket with a chance of hitting. Maybe the payoff won't be the mega jackpot, but with so little invested, even a small payoff is a positive development. Matt Harvey has already been successful in the Majors, which puts him ahead of any  prospect my team would have to relinquish.

The False Testimony of Derek Jeter

Oh how we have missed Derek Jeter. We've managed to survive two years and 35 games without him, (Thank God for the Cubs!) during which time the official sculptor of the New York Yankees has been busy carving his likeness onto a plaque for unveiling this weekend.

So the tributes will flow and the accolades will fill the air. To the sold-out crowd's delight, Jeter's spirit magic will enter The Stadium as they retire his number 2 and his aura will ascend to heaven. Already, sports shows that treat baseball like gum on their sneaker bottom have dedicated segments to his monumental character and leadership. 

He Should Be President
Yes, the same America that smiled upon the character and leadership of Donald Trump is transfixed by those attributes in Derek Jeter. But I'm sure that will not give the crowd, or the mesmerized sports media, a moment's pause. 

Just to be clear, I don't doubt that Jeter is a great guy with strong character and outstanding leadership skills. It's just that he has become the vessel into which we have poured all our appreciation for leadership in sports. There were literally dozens of athletes who shared these characteristics during Jeter's career -- maybe more. He's the only one we celebrated at all, much less continuously at full voice for 20 years.

The Perstistence of an Overblown Narrative
I want to relate a story that the fine baseball writer Buster Olney is telling this week as testimony to Jeter's great character.  Olney remembers a game in 1998 in which a popup fell between fielders, prompting pitcher David Wells to react with frustration. Olney received word that young Jeter had chewed out Wells in the clubhouse, demanding that he show his teammates respect. Olney asked Jeter about it and Jeter denied it vociferously. Within a minute Olney discovered that in fact it was quite the tongue-lashing. 

Olney tells this story as an encomium to Jeter's great character -- that he would take the initiative to set the tone for his team, but then reject efforts to bestow credit upon him. Fine, spin it that way if you like. What I heard was that Jeter lied to Olney's face. Imagine the umbrage Olney would have taken had any other ballplayer lied so blatantly to him.

In fact, what happened there is just confirmation bias piling up more evidence for the narrative that has engulfed the sporting public. Imagine all the alternative scenarios and ask yourself if Olney would have drawn any different conclusion:

1. Jeter deflects question saying what happens in the clubhouse stays among the players.
Conclusion: Jeter is a great team leader who refuses to take credit.

2. Jeter refuses to talk about it.
Conclusion: Jeter is a great team leader who refuses to take credit.

3. Jeter admits there was a discussion but plays it down.
 Conclusion: Jeter is a great team leader who is reluctant to take credit.

4. Jeter defends his actions and says in no uncertain terms that the team won't tolerate disrespect.
Conclusion: Jeter is a great team leader who is setting the tone for a championship team.
 
You see, there is no scenario in which Olney doesn't retell this story as a tribute to Jeter. In fact, Jeter chose the least magnanimous option -- lying through his teeth. But when the narrative of Jeter as the Mother Teresa of horsehide has as much momentum as it has had for years, it's very difficult to avoid getting caught up in it.

But I've managed.

From Superstar to Bench Warmer: Andrew McCutchen's Demise

Remember Dale Murphy, the Braves' star center fielder who stood atop the baseball mountain from 1982 to 1987? He hit 45% better than average, smashed 36 homers a year, won five Gold Gloves and two MVPs, and was headed to Cooperstown.

Then, at age 32, he turned into a pumpkin. In his last six seasons, he hit just .234/.307/.396 with just 88 homers. He stole the same number of bases in those six seasons as he had in '87 alone (16) but was caught four more times (10). He moved to right field as his glove got ragged and he never sniffed the Hall.

The same thing appears to have happened to Andrew McCutchen, except in a much shorter period of time. Year before last, he was a certified superstar, a five-tool highlight reel and a perennial top 5 MVP candidate. He hit .313/.404/.523 for the four years corresponding with his age 25-28 seasons, while commanding center field and delivering 26 WAR. He won the MVP in 2013 and was even better in '14. The woebegone Pirates made the playoffs.

McCutchen wasn't the same last year, at age 29, and the whispers began. His fielding was, by all accounts, no longer tolerable in center. His hitting waned to .259/.336/.430, below average for an outfielder. And the Bucs stayed home in October.

Most confoundingly, there didn't seem to be any underlying injury to blame for the slippage. Pitchers just seemed to be able to get him out. Or maybe he was just hiding something.

So 2017 has bloomed with Cutch in right field. His fielding has ticked up so far. And his hitting has ticked further down. Now it's early, but there's no sign of the guy who, just two years ago, finished fifth in MVP balloting. He's hitting .235/.321/.435, almost all of it against lefties.

So now the talk has begun: is Cutch a platoon player? Is he a fourth outfielder? Was that it? He's 30 years old!

It's only early May and McCutchen might bounce back to his old form. But every day he's just ordinary is another piece of data suggesting that's what he now is. It's a mighty, and mighty quick, fall for a guy who was the face of the game just yesterday.

On "Polarizing" Tim Tebow and Religious Bigotry

Tim Tebow is playing for the Mets' Mid-A affiliate in Columbia, South Carolina, just up the road from me in Charleston. The 29-year-old outfielder is hitting .208 with a pair of home runs for the Fireflies. 

That is to say, he is so far neither a prospect nor an asset to his team on the field. But he is having fun chasing a dream. Bully for him.

This story graced the front page of my Sunday newspaper. The headline discusses "taking sides" on Tebow.  

This ignorant tripe found its way into the sports section the same day. In it, the writer claims the experiment is working because the Fireflies are winning "in some ways, because of him." They are winning in absolutely no way because of an outfielder who has three extra base hits and a .269 OBP in 52 plate appearances.

The author also opines that "it’s not just Tebow’s production, or his strong Christian faith, that’s helping him fill seats in minor league parks. It’s also his flair for the dramatic." Every element of this statement is transparently false. Tebow's sub-replacement production is not drawing fans. Plenty of ballplayers have "strong Christian faith" but don't bring out the crowds. And it's hard to find flair for the dramatic in a guy who isn't contributing. No, Tebow is filling seats because he's a celebrity. People have heard of him and want to see what he can do.

Controversial Tim Tebow
What continues to puzzle me about Tebow is the "controversy," the "doubters," the people "questioning his motives," and all that nonsense. This all strikes me as religious bigotry.

Tim Tebow is a gentleman, a scholar and a team player. He is a serial philanthropist. He is a humble, polite, Grade-A role model. I don't share his faith, but as I've noted before, I don't share the faith of Martin Luther King, Mohandas Gandhi or the Dalai Lama, but I recognize them as three of the greatest citizens of the 20th century. Where is the controversy?

There has been a tremendous amount of discussion about Tebow's expressions of faith. But they are not unusual in the sports world. While Tebow wore eyeblack with Biblical references and kneeled in prayer on the sideline, baseball is full of guys with tattoos citing Bible verses, pointing to the sky after every home run, or crossing themselves when approaching the plate. If any of this is a crime, who is the victim?

Tebow has established a charity called “Night to Shine,” which creates proms for kids with special needs. He is quoted in the article saying, "...if you can use the platform to try to help people and bring smiles to faces — that’s what I tried to do in football, and what I’m going to try to do in this game as well.” Where is the controversy?

C'mon, He'll Never Make the Majors
There are those who doubt his motives. It's obvious what his motive is: he wants to play ball. If you had the skill to play professional baseball, wouldn't you like to try? It's true that his celebrity is responsible for the opportunity to play, but...so what? The Fireflies are drawing 2,000 more people a game to see him. What's wrong with making fans happy?

A nice guy who had a career as a professional football player wants to try his hand at baseball. He's willing to start at the bottom, act like one of the guys and help people along the way.  I wish him the best.

We officially live in a country where a gentleman who respects everyone and tries to be his best is disdained. and an ignorant sociopath who mocks disabled people and admits to molesting women is elected president. God help us.

...And Another Career Ended a Day Later

Add to the roster identified yesterday Josh Hamilton, the Greek tragedy of Baseball, whose Great Fall preceded a Phoenix-rise and then a fall back into ashes. At 36, Hamilton was released from his Minor League contract with the Texas Rangers after sustaining yet another knee injury.

Just to recap, Hamilton was the first pick in the 1999 draft by Tampa, a chiseled, 6'4" blue chip whose rapid ascent to the Majors was derailed by drug addiction. He fought his way back and debuted with the Reds in 2007. Following a trade to Texas for pitcher Edinson Volquez, Hamilton busted out in 2008, hitting .304 with 32 homers and a league-leading 130 RBI while staffing center field. 

Two years later, his .359/.411./.633 led the American League and won him the MVP, but the seeds of his demise were planted the year before when he missed half the season with a variety of injuries. He played 140 games just twice after that.

Cashing In
Despite all the missed time, Hamilton finished the Texas portion of his career averaging .305 with 28 homers and 101 RBI. Though he performed poorly in the playoffs and was booed by the fans, Anaheim signed him to a five-year, $125 million contract that they would regret.

Injuries and drug relapse characterized the next three years, during which Hamilton averaged .255 with 13 homers and 49 RBIs and was, because of the drug issues, far more trouble than he was worth, the massive contract aside. Anaheim essentially gave Hamilton back to Texas, where he contributed little before getting hurt again. 

Shorn of his playing value, Hamilton lost all of 2016 to knee surgery. In January, the Rangers signed him to a Minor League contract and in February he underwent left knee surgery, delaying his debut on the farm. Yesterday, the team revealed they had cut him loose after he inured his right knee while rehabbing the left one.

Turn the Lights Out: It's Over
It's hard to imagine that Josh Hamilton's career has any more legs. He has missed 367 games (and counting) over the last three-plus seasons, produced about two wins over replacement during that time, requires constant chaperoning to keep him on the wagon and will be bearing down on 40 if and when he is ready to return to baseball. There aren't many teams clamoring for an old, oft-injured slugger who can no longer play the outfield and is dragging around heavy personal baggage.

That is a fourth prominent sports career that may have effectively ended with an announcement the last two days.

Three Great Athletes We Probably Said Goodbye to Yesterday

Three spectacular sports careers appear to have come to an end yesterday and it's not clear that people are much noticing. Two of those careers ended for all practical purposes years ago. In one case, the sporting public continued to fixate upon the athlete as if he were still at the top of his game. The other has been largely forgotten. And then the third has sprung news upon the world that might mean the denouement of her amazing career, though we can't be sure.

I'm referring, of course, to Tiger Woods, David Wright and Serena Williams. Woods and Williams are, or were once, considered the greatest athletes who ever played their sport. Wright might simply be the greatest Met ever, though that accolade depends largely upon Tom Seaver's 10 seasons elsewhere.

Serena, Greatest of All Time
Williams, the most decorated tennis player ever and at 35 still the best female tennis player in the world, announced yesterday that she is pregnant. The media reported this development in great detail, though it seemed to consider the identity of the father, Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian, to whom Williams became engaged in December, as an afterthought. Regardless, she says she expects to continue playing after giving birth, but she will be 36 and her attention will be attenuated. It is fair to assume that her dominance has ended as her morning sickness begins.

Tiger, Almost the Greatest of All Time
Serena and Tiger Woods share key attributes with regard to their sports, even beyond their transcendence. Both were racial trailblazers, dragging golf and tennis into the 20th century in their acceptance of black athletes. Both transformed the physique of the average athlete in their sport. Woods's influence appears ephemeral in the former; Williams's in the latter. Additionally, both athletes displayed emotion on the battlefield, something altogether novel on the links, if not on the court.

Unlike Serena, (each needs but a first name to be recognized) Tiger has been a has-been for years. He abdicated his golfing throne on Thanksgiving Day of 2009, when his marital issues spilled into the public consciousness. Knee and back injuries have derailed him since, with a yearlong hiatus from March 2013 to May 2014 when he briefly recaptured the world #1 ranking. But since back surgery that year, Tiger has hardly played, and hardly mattered to golf, except in his absence. News of a fourth back surgery at age 41 is likely the final nail in the coffin of his career on the links and also of the headlines about his absence.

Wright, Mr. Met
David Wright, 34, who from 2004-2010 hit .305 and averaged 24 home runs and five wins against replacement, and who was tabbed by Bill James after the 2008 season as the one ballplayer he'd start a team with, has been hampered by back issues for the better part of this decade. He's suited up for just 75 games since 2015 and requires hours of stretching and treatment just to get on the field of play. His return to the 60-day DL yesterday suggests that there really is no endgame here, except to hang around long enough to collect the last $67 million he is contractually owed over the next four years (2017 included.) At this point the Mets would be wise to work out a deal that pays him off and opens a roster spot for a third baseman who can actually play the position.

This triumvirate has earned something like half a billion dollars from their sports and many millions more in endorsements, so no one is crying for them. But every next tournament win for Serena would have been a new record; every Major for Tiger brought him closer to the mountaintop; and every game played, at bat, hit, run scored, RBI, and walk for Wright extended his career Met record. And now they probably won't happen.

It's a good reminder that young athletes who look like Mt. Rushmore material now can easily be derailed by injury or even by life. We very possibly said goodbye to three of the greatest in their sports all on the same day in April of 2017.

A Tour Down the Thames

We've seen it before. In the first 27 games of his career, Shane Spencer hit .373 for the Yankees with 10 home runs. In the six seasons that followed he hit .257 with 49 home runs. Pitchers made an adjustment, Spencer adjusted to the adjustment. Pitchers further adjusted and Spencer didn't have much of an answer.

So I don't want to make too much of Eric Thames. He's burst out of the gate for Milwaukee with a 1.479 OPS and 7 home runs in just 12 games. He's already been worth more than a win against replacement, about what Travis d'Arnaud has been worth in his career. It's fun and exciting and we know it won't last.

On top of that, he's an immobile first baseman best positioned at DH. If he sinks to league average at the plate he's got little value to the Brewers.

But there is a reason to think he won't sink to average. In fact, there's a reason to believe this isn't all that surprising. The reason is Cecil Fielder.

I mean, a 1.479 OPS is always surprising even if Miguel Cabrera produces it. But the thing about Thames, as I mentioned in a season preview, is that he showed some muscle in his two Major League half-seasons before getting his head straight in South Korea. He terrorized KBO pitching and earned the nickname "God" while he was there. (Evidently Koreans believe in a one-tool god.)

This is all reminiscent of Fielder, an immobile slugger without much to show for his first four years in the Bigs before lighting it up in Japan. Upon his return, Fielder smashed 160 homers and earned 15 WAR in his next four MVP-candidate seasons. Others have done the same: work out the kinks overseas and then bring the improved skills stateside.

Will Thames follow in Fielder's footsteps? That's a tall order. Fielder had a fuller resume than Thames when he left -- for one year -- and returned at age 26. Thames, gone for four years, is 30, the age at which Fielder lost his star status. On the other hand, Thames is a physical specimen, something only the World Eating Federation would have said about Fielder.

We know for sure Thames won't put up a 1.000 slugging percentage. It will be fun to see what he does manage to do. I'm rooting for him. As we say in Korea, 행운을!

Because PItching is Harder Today, That's Why

The biggest criticism I hear from itinerant baseball fans today about the 21st century player is astonishment that pitchers are such weenies.

Tommy John threw 200+ innings seven times after his eponymous surgery (five times prior), peaking at 276 innings in 1979 at age 36. John hurled 162 complete games in his career, more than all of Major League Baseball racks up in a season.

So why can't some 240-pound stud last into the seventh without replacing his ulnar collateral ligament?

Answer: See the title of this post.

Behemoths With Bats During Tommy John's career in the 60s and 70s, and even into the early 80s, every lineup was stocked with batters, often including a pitcher, who couldn't reach the centerfield fence if you spotted him second base. Bud Harrelson anchored the Miracle Mets' World Series run in 1969 weighing in at 160 pounds with change in his pocket. Harrelson produced seven home runs in his 16-year career and I'd be willing to bet my Toyota Yaris that at least four of them rolled around the field of play while he circled the bases.

In 2016, even a novelty like Jose Altuve, all of 5'5" and 165, pokes 24 home runs in a season.

In fact, the year of Tommy John's return from elbow surgery, there were 86 players listed at 175 pounds or less who made 300 plate appearances. Last year, there were 12. That same year, 102 players with 300 PAs tallied fewer than five home runs. That's three or four semi-regulars per team. Last year, there were 31 -- one per team.

Back then, a pitcher could cruise through much of the lineup secure that only a couple of bats were capable of doing real damage. Today, every single pitch matters.

Rougned Odor, Keystoner, 33 Jacks
To counteract this, or rather to survive it, MLB teams grow tight ends who can light up radar guns. (Literally, in the case of Jeff Samardzija.) And they throw pitches Tommy John never heard of, like cut fastballs, 90-mph change-ups and 75 mph knuckleballs. They are being bred to snap off breaking pitches that scratch the corners at high velocities. They are not being bred to go the distance. For that, they raise relief pitchers, cultivated for their triple-digit heat, now crowding bullpens that held two or three second-string arms in Tommy John's day. The late innings are their dominion, not the starter's.

In the 70s, more than three-quarters of at-bats ended with a ball put in play. Pitchers could serve it up and allow their fielders to handle the batted balls. Today, about two-thirds of balls are put into play. That's about 650 more walks, strikeouts, and home runs per team each season, which means more pitches thrown per at bat. Today, every one of a starter's 100 precious pitches is delivered with maximum effort to 6'4" shortstops who can crank it out to the opposite field. There are no more Jerry Kenneys, the Yankees' 170-pound shortstop with a lifetime .299 slugging percentage.

Put it all together and you get 21st century baseball. Pitchers aren't wusses today and their ligaments aren't any more tender; in fact, they're bigger, stronger, better conditioned and more adept than ever before. They just have a more strenuous job.

12 Things We've Already Seen in 2017

 
We're two weeks into the season, not nearly enough time to draw any conclusions. But there's plenty to keep our eyes on. Here are 12 interesting things we've seen:

1. On the same day that the Cardinals' Carlos Martinez walked 8 and fanned 11 in five innings against the Yankees, Jacob deGrom whiffed 13 with one walk against the Marlins. Neither pitcher earned a win.
2. Milwaukee first baseman (and Korean baseball legend) Eric Thames is batting .382 with five home runs after four years out of Major League baseball. 
3. The woeful Cincinnati Reds own the best record in the NL, in part because they have nothing to lose. Team brass has decided to use their bullpen optimally, with top reliever Raisel Iglesias serving as fireman, not closer, and the next three best bullpen pieces -- Drew Storen, Michael Lorenzen and Tony Cingrani, pitching whatever number of innings they are needed. The results so far have been stellar and bear further observation. 
4.  It's way too early to panic, but Toronto's 1-9 bodes poorly. In the last 12 years, no team starting 1-9 has finished above .500. But they're 2-9 today and if they're 3-9 tomorrow the equation shifts in their direction.
5. If you're looking for signs from Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper, keep looking. Cutch is hitting like last year; Harper a little better than career average, 50 plate appearances in.
6. There was a lot of off-season discussion about why no team had rushed to bring Joe Blanton on board, after two excellent seasons as a reliever. Perhaps this is why: 0-2, 6.43 so far this season for Washington. But no walks, seven strikeouts and a WHIP of 1 suggest better times ahead.
7. The White Sox held onto ace Jose Quintana (i.e., the ace once Chris Sale was dispensed) for a better haul mid-season than was being offered in the winter. How's that working out, 0-3, 6.75?
8. The Best Start Award goes to Ervin Santana. The 13-year veteran, now toiling for the Twins, is off to a 3-0, 0.41 start in 22 innings. He's allowed just five hits and struck out 15.
9. His teammate, highly touted outfielder Byron Buxton, might have earned the Worst Start Award. A one-for-three day yesterday got him to .100/.143/.150 with strikeouts in 53% of his at bats. Minnesota is going to let him figure it out with the big club; it's not as if they're going anywhere without him.
10. Chris Sale has lasted at least seven frames for his new team, allowing 0-2-1 runs. His Red Sox teammates have scored 0-1-2 runs for him. He could have stayed in Chicago for that.
11. In case you're wondering, the Royals' revolution is over. If you think they're bad this year, wait 'til you see the tear-down that starts next year.
12. The broadcast of the Braves' opener at Sun Trust Park was a craven three-hour commercial for the new stadium and its titular sponsor. The announcers, Joe Simpson and Chip Caray, extolled the park and allowed company brass to croon about serving the fans, unchallenged. They should hand in their journalist cards right now and preface every broadcast with a consumer warning that they are wanton shills for their employers. Abandoning beautiful Turner Field after just 20 years for a new park in the suburbs, where the white people live and will be saddled with its unnecessary costs, was an abomination. And the new park itself? Not a single interesting feature, as far as I could tell.