04 June 2017

Holding Court on the Best Rookie Season

In 1975, rookie Fred Lynn took the American League by storm, earning a Rookie of the Year award and capturing the MVP along with it. He hit a league leading 47 doubles along with seven triples and 21 homers, batting .331/.401/.566 to lead the AL in OPS and won a Gold Glove in center field. His 7.4 WAR was second best among position players that year (behind Rod Carew.)

If it wasn't the greatest rookie season for a position player of all time, it's on the list. You might prefer Ichiro's "rookie" season in 2001 when he hit .350, stole 56 bases and earned 7.7 WAR or Ted Williams's 1939, when he blasted 86 XBH and compiled a .436 OBP en route to 6.7 WAR. Or perhaps you're partial to Albert Pujols and his 88 XBH, .403 OBP and 6.6 WAR that got lost in the drama of 2001.

(It's worth pointing out that Mike Trout's 20-year-old season blows all of these away, but he squandered his rookie status with 123 at-bats at age 19.)

Whatever your preference, it might all soon be moot. If Aaron Judge were to keep this up, he would lead the majors with 57 homers and 136 runs scored. His .326/.433/.691 and exemplary defense in right would be worth 10.5 WAR. In the absence of Trout's league-leading everything else, Judge is the top candidate for both Rookie of the Year and MVP.

The Signs Are Good for More
Can Judge keep this up? No one knows the answer, of course, not even Aaron Judge. We do know that he has passed the first adjustment test. The mammoth right-hander's May was every bit as intimidating as his April and he has shown improved plate discipline over his Minor League career. He's also performing this way despite striking out a jabillion times -- he's on pace for 200 Ks -- but also 100 walks. 

By definition, it's not likely the 25-year-old is quite this, because no one has ever been quite this his freshman season. But it's also quite likely he is something. After all, consider that not-too-shabby list above. If Judge performs at half this rate the rest of the way he's still nearly a seven-win player with close to 40 home runs. 

You've read and heard all the Judge puns, but they miss the point. This guy might just be Aaron.

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