We've seen it before. In the first 27 games of his career, Shane Spencer hit .373 for the Yankees with 10 home runs. In the six seasons that followed he hit .257 with 49 home runs. Pitchers made an adjustment, Spencer adjusted to the adjustment. Pitchers further adjusted and Spencer didn't have much of an answer.
So I don't want to make too much of Eric Thames. He's burst out of the gate for Milwaukee with a 1.479 OPS and 7 home runs in just 12 games. He's already been worth more than a win against replacement, about what Travis d'Arnaud has been worth in his career. It's fun and exciting and we know it won't last.
On top of that, he's an immobile first baseman best positioned at DH. If he sinks to league average at the plate he's got little value to the Brewers.
But there is a reason to think he won't sink to average. In fact, there's a reason to believe this isn't all that surprising. The reason is Cecil Fielder.
I mean, a 1.479 OPS is always surprising even if Miguel Cabrera produces it. But the thing about Thames, as I mentioned in a season preview, is that he showed some muscle in his two Major League half-seasons before getting his head straight in South Korea. He terrorized KBO pitching and earned the nickname "God" while he was there. (Evidently Koreans believe in a one-tool god.)
This is all reminiscent of Fielder, an immobile slugger without much to show for his first four years in the Bigs before lighting it up in Japan. Upon his return, Fielder smashed 160 homers and earned 15 WAR in his next four MVP-candidate seasons. Others have done the same: work out the kinks overseas and then bring the improved skills stateside.
Will Thames follow in Fielder's footsteps? That's a tall order. Fielder had a fuller resume than Thames when he left -- for one year -- and returned at age 26. Thames, gone for four years, is 30, the age at which Fielder lost his star status. On the other hand, Thames is a physical specimen, something only the World Eating Federation would have said about Fielder.
We know for sure Thames won't put up a 1.000 slugging percentage. It will be fun to see what he does manage to do. I'm rooting for him. As we say in Korea, 행운을!
Game 2 of the World Series, Detroit's Prince Fielder on first and Delmon Young at the plate. Young tags one down the right field line against San Fran's Madison Bumgarner. The ball rolls over the right field bullpen as Fielder waddles to third.
How big a hairball did third base coach Gene Lamont cough up by sending Fielder home? The numbers paint a grim picture. (Warning: innumerates should shield their eyes.)
As Cecil's kid was reaching the corner base, Young was pulling into second with none out. Left there, on average, the Tigers could be expected to score a run 84% of the time. On average, they would score 2.017 runs. (Of course, these are averages, and don't take into account the aptitude of pitcher Doug Fister or the following batters Jhonny Peralta, Avrail Garcia and Gerald Laird. Presumably, Fister's edge would lower all these numbers a bit.)
Had Fielder lumbered under Buster Posey's tag at the plate, Detroit would have made certain the plating of one run, and with a man on second and none out, still be on course to score another 1.165 runs on average. In other words, on average, the Giants would have hiked the likelihood of scoring at all from 84% to 100% and tweaked their expected yield from 2.017 runs to 2.165 runs. Meh.
How about the risk? Getting Fielder thrown out slashed Detroit's expected run yield by two-thirds to .708 and the odds of scoring at all with a man on second and one out to 41%. In other words, the downside was losing two thirds of the run expectancy and chopping the odds of scoring anything in half.
(You can start reading again if you've been cowering under the adding machine.)
Put more bluntly: Fielder was probably going to score anyway, so creating a contested play at the plate offered little gain. Getting him thrown out was likely to ruin the inning. And that's in fact how it turned out.
If you think that's a fair risk/reward, every Las Vegas hotel would like to offer you a free room and complimentary drinks. Maybe they'll give Gene Lamont a call.
