Is There Fire Where There's Smoak?

It might have escaped your attention that MLB bust Justin Smoak, a native of Goose Creek, SC, 20 miles from the source of these words, is enjoying a career 1/3rd of a year in his eighth season.

A spare part most of his career, he was one tooth in the gear the Blue Jays hoped would offset the power output of departed Edwin Encarnacion.

Now Smoak is doing it all by himself. A career .223 hitter, he's delivering .283/.348/.550 with 14 blasts and out-slugging not only Encarnacion (.230 with 10 homers) but also any version of Justin Smoak we've ever seen.

With an OPS 130 points higher than his next best season's, Smoak has, in just the first 50 games of 2017, doubled his lifetime WAR. And he's doing it in a different way than the rest of the sport.

The buzzword today in MLB is launch angle -- swing up so that when you make contact you have a chance at extra bases. It sacrifices some BA and OBP for power. But that was already Justin Smoak's career modus operandi, and while it's kept him in The Show, his sun may have been setting. What has changed for Smoak is the quantity of his upward contact: he's fanning three percent less than league average, compared to six percent more in his previous seven years.

That might not seem like much, but take my word for it, it's the difference between .223 and .283, between replacement-level player and starting first baseman. And the reason seems to be that he's laying off breaking balls outside the strike zone. It's a small adjustment, but the kind that has given us Eric Thames and Aaron Judge and, now, Justin Smoak. So while we're comparing 50 games to 3000 previous trips to the plate, it might be sustainable.

That would be Smoak without the mirrors, and that would be a nice career boost for a guy who seemed headed back to Goose Creek.