We're two weeks into the season, not nearly enough time to draw any conclusions. But there's plenty to keep our eyes on. Here are 12 interesting things we've seen:
- On the same day that the Cardinals' Carlos Martinez walked 8 and fanned 11 in five innings against the Yankees, Jacob deGrom whiffed 13 with one walk against the Marlins. Neither pitcher earned a win.
- Milwaukee first baseman (and Korean baseball legend) Eric Thames is batting .382 with five home runs after four years out of Major League baseball.
- The woeful Cincinnati Reds own the best record in the NL, in part because they have nothing to lose. Team brass has decided to use their bullpen optimally, with top reliever Raisel Iglesias serving as fireman, not closer, and the next three best bullpen pieces -- Drew Storen, Michael Lorenzen and Tony Cingrani, pitching whatever number of innings they are needed. The results so far have been stellar and bear further observation.
- It's way too early to panic, but Toronto's 1-9 bodes poorly. In the last 12 years, no team starting 1-9 has finished above .500. But they're 2-9 today and if they're 3-9 tomorrow the equation shifts in their direction.
- If you're looking for signs from Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper, keep looking. Cutch is hitting like last year; Harper a little better than career average, 50 plate appearances in.
- There was a lot of off-season discussion about why no team had rushed to bring Joe Blanton on board, after two excellent seasons as a reliever. Perhaps this is why: 0-2, 6.43 so far this season for Washington. But no walks, seven strikeouts and a WHIP of 1 suggest better times ahead.
- The White Sox held onto ace Jose Quintana (i.e., the ace once Chris Sale was dispensed) for a better haul mid-season than was being offered in the winter. How's that working out, 0-3, 6.75?
- The Best Start Award goes to Ervin Santana. The 13-year veteran, now toiling for the Twins, is off to a 3-0, 0.41 start in 22 innings. He's allowed just five hits and struck out 15.
- His teammate, highly touted outfielder Byron Buxton, might have earned the Worst Start Award. A one-for-three day yesterday got him to .100/.143/.150 with strikeouts in 53% of his at bats. Minnesota is going to let him figure it out with the big club; it's not as if they're going anywhere without him.
- Chris Sale has lasted at least seven frames for his new team, allowing 0-2-1 runs. His Red Sox teammates have scored 0-1-2 runs for him. He could have stayed in Chicago for that.
- In case you're wondering, the Royals' revolution is over. If you think they're bad this year, wait 'til you see the tear-down that starts next year.
- The broadcast of the Braves' opener at Sun Trust Park was a craven three-hour commercial for the new stadium and its titular sponsor. The announcers, Joe Simpson and Chip Caray, extolled the park and allowed company brass to croon about serving the fans, unchallenged. They should hand in their journalist cards right now and preface every broadcast with a consumer warning that they are wanton shills for their employers. Abandoning beautiful Turner Field after just 20 years for a new park in the suburbs, where the white people live and will be saddled with its unnecessary costs, was an abomination. And the new park itself? Not a single interesting feature, as far as I could tell.
When Theo Epstein took over the Chicago Cubs the bare cupboard allowed him an opportunity to reconfigure the franchise to his liking. Epstein decided to rebuild with hitting and defense, and pick up arms wherever he could. The Cubs drafted everyday players, developed everyday players, hunted internationally for everyday players, and when the time was right, went fishing for pitchers in free agency, low-cost trades and the like.
When you build behind pitching, you're building on a foundation of uncertainly, like a house built on sand. Scouts and seamheads know there's only a little hyperbole in the bromide abbreviated as TINSTAAPP -- there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Banking millions of dollars and a pennant on arms, shoulders, elbows and other appendages withstanding the blunt force trauma of snapping off sliders and cranking up fastballs 90 times a game is a fool's errand.
Ladies and gentleman, I give you the 2017 New York Mets.
Not so much by design as by happenstance, the studs holding up the walls in Queens are all of the hurling variety. Thor, the Dark Knight, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman and Zack Wheeler have all demonstrated ace or near-ace ability, and present as a group the most formidable five starters since at least the '90s Braves.
At the same time, only one star player graces the everyday lineup, Yo, and there are even questions about him. Baseball Prospectus's projection system has the Mets winning the division with the second best run prevention in the league, but also below average offense.
If Terry Collins can coax 130 starts out of his impossible sextet, the hitting might not matter. With continued dominance and newfound health 90 feet from the plate, the Mets could rout the division and claim the NL's best record. That is the formula that drove them to the pennant in 2015, though with a somewhat different crew.
It Isn't Gonna Be That Way
Ah, to dream. Gsellman owns all of eight starts in the Major Leagues. Matz shut it down in mid-August last season. Wheeler's a wreck after post-TJ surgery complications and Harvey looks more like the rabbit than the Knight. That doesn't even account for the prospect of injury every time a previously healthy pitcher like Syndergaard takes the mound.
The betting line on starts by the top six starters is probably in the 110-120 area and betting the over seems foolhardy. The team showed last year they could sneak into the playoffs without the staff intact, but one-and-done isn't any pennant contender's idea of success. Besides, what if the mound arms implode? It could get uglier than a Twitter war with Charles Barkley. The franchise has some good options in a pinch, but not #2-starter types for extended periods.
Fangraphs' projection system says the Mets' pitching staff (including relievers) will produce roughly twice as much WAR as the everyday players. That assumes a full season (143 starts) from the front line. A couple of injuries could easily cost 10 wins of value.
Every team has best and worst case scenarios but the standard deviations on this team are the largest. It wouldn't be shocking for them to knock on the door of 100 wins -- or 84 losses. There really isn't any other team you could say that about at season's start.
When a kid gets a shiny new toy he always wanted for Christmas, it's not surprising that he plays with it endlessly. And when it ceases to work, it's not surprising that he puts it away.
The seamheads turned out shiny new projection toys in the 2000s variously called PECOTA, Steamer, ZiPS, Marcel, FANS and Oliver, depending on whose proprietary system you prefer. (For example, Baseball Prospectus created PECOTA, Fangraphs introduced ZiPS and Tom Tango developed Marcel.) They all compare ballplayers of today to their counterparts in history to determine what awaits the current crop in the coming year. All that is then compiled into team projections.
These toys have some value for a couple of reasons: they are objective and they have built into them some simple rules that humans fail to recognize or choose to ignore when analyzing player performance. Beyond that, though, they offer little insight. Most significantly, they don't know anything about the people who play the game. They are blind to who learned a new pitch, is struggling through a wrenching divorce, picked up a hitch in his swing or is finally healthy.
As a result, they can never tell us who will suddenly break out, Jose Bautista style, or who will Dontrelle Willis all over himself. None of them could pinpoint the 2014 demise of the Red Sox or the Orioles' pre-eminence. And yet the sabermetric world talks about these tools as if they're atom splitters.
So, for example, Steamer predicts the top 10 players by WAR next year are Mike Trout, Andrew McCutcheon, Giancarlo Stanton, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista and Paul Goldschmidt. (Cano, Machado and Puig are right behind.) Well, duh. right? (Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez are its top pitchers. Who knew?)
It says Joey Votto and Bryce Harper are stars with injury risks. You don't say. It projects Chris Davis bouncing about halfway back to 2013 with a .242 batting average and 30 home runs. About what you'd predict. It sees Justin Verlander returning to about league average pitching. And it's not really buying Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom. Well, who outside of the outer boroughs is?
So the toys have some entertainment value, but the saber community plays with them as if they're iPads. They quote chapter and verse on players, particularly when analyzing trades and signings. The truth is, exercise a few simple guiding principles, like Warren Buffet investor tips, and you too can lord over the average baseball fan.
And be right 60% of the time.
In subsequent posts, we'll discuss those principles, examine some interesting player projections and the swim among the team projections. (Spoiler alert: the Phillies will suck.)
That Albert Einstein feller was good at physics. The world was aware of this before the Nobel Prize committee tapped him in 1921. Likewise, this Mike Trout dude can play baseball. You probably noticed before the 2014 MVP was bestowed, unanimously, upon him.
Trout is 23. He's three years younger than Jacob deGrom, whose Rookie of the Year trophy still looks nice on his mantle. deGrom's three wins against replacement place him just 25 short of Trout's 28.
Here is a list of Major League Baseball performers with fewer career WAR than Mike Trout:
- Paul Konerko
- Hal McRae
- Billy Wagner
- Alfonso Soriano
- Mo Vaughn
- Clete Boyer
- Prince Fielder
- Chris Chambliss
- Mike Cuellar
- Benito Santiago
Here's the fun part: 2014 was Trout's worst season. In his worst season, he led the league in runs, RBIs and total bases, slugged 36 homers, batted 35 points above league average, ran the bases like a fiend and leaped tall buildings in a single bound.
2014 lagged offensively. Teams averaged a meager 4.18 runs per game. In 2007, teams averaged 4.95 runs. According to Grant Bisbee of SB Nation, converting Trout's season to 2007 terms gives us the following:
- Trout pounds out a 42-143-.321 Triple Crown line.
- He smacks 46 doubles and 11 triples.
- He scores 148 times.
- He posts a 1.044 OPS.
- In the worst year of his career.
- Wait 'til he improves.
This concludes this test of the Mike Trout broadcasting system. If Mike Trout had actually improved in 2014, you would have been instructed where to tune in your area for news and official information. Now back to our regularly scheduled programming...
