Rhys Hoskins and the Power of Recency Bias

Quick, which is more impressive:

The Phillies' rookie Rhys Hoskins socking 18 homers faster than anyone in baseball history.

Or

Giancarlo Stanton threatening the 60 home run mark, which only two players have met unsupported by chemical enhancement?

This question was actually raised on an ESPN broadcast. 

Please.

What Rhys Hoskins is doing is interesting. It's impressive. It's unprecedented (obviously). But if he goes a week without a homer it will cease to be any of those things. 

And if he returns to Earth, or even to the average slugger's planet, it will fade into a moment in time, like Eric Thames' early season run. 

Flashes of greatness are pretty common. Do you remember:

• Shane Spencer
• Mark Fidrych
• Bob Hamlin
• Hurricane Bob Hazle
• Joe Cowley
• Joe Charbonneau
• Bobo Holloman
• Chris Shelton
• ...takes a deep breath...
• and many many more?

Each of them had their Rhys Hoskins moment.

Sustained greatness is sweeter by far. Giancarlo Stanton is a world class slugger. He has proven that over the years. This season is the culmination of that. Or maybe it isn't. Maybe there is even more of this to come.

In any case, a full season of greatness outweighs a flash in the pan -- even one of epic proportions.

And a career of greatness, well, that is truly remarkable.

A Tour Down the Thames

We've seen it before. In the first 27 games of his career, Shane Spencer hit .373 for the Yankees with 10 home runs. In the six seasons that followed he hit .257 with 49 home runs. Pitchers made an adjustment, Spencer adjusted to the adjustment. Pitchers further adjusted and Spencer didn't have much of an answer.

So I don't want to make too much of Eric Thames. He's burst out of the gate for Milwaukee with a 1.479 OPS and 7 home runs in just 12 games. He's already been worth more than a win against replacement, about what Travis d'Arnaud has been worth in his career. It's fun and exciting and we know it won't last.

On top of that, he's an immobile first baseman best positioned at DH. If he sinks to league average at the plate he's got little value to the Brewers.

But there is a reason to think he won't sink to average. In fact, there's a reason to believe this isn't all that surprising. The reason is Cecil Fielder.

I mean, a 1.479 OPS is always surprising even if Miguel Cabrera produces it. But the thing about Thames, as I mentioned in a season preview, is that he showed some muscle in his two Major League half-seasons before getting his head straight in South Korea. He terrorized KBO pitching and earned the nickname "God" while he was there. (Evidently Koreans believe in a one-tool god.)

This is all reminiscent of Fielder, an immobile slugger without much to show for his first four years in the Bigs before lighting it up in Japan. Upon his return, Fielder smashed 160 homers and earned 15 WAR in his next four MVP-candidate seasons. Others have done the same: work out the kinks overseas and then bring the improved skills stateside.

Will Thames follow in Fielder's footsteps? That's a tall order. Fielder had a fuller resume than Thames when he left -- for one year -- and returned at age 26. Thames, gone for four years, is 30, the age at which Fielder lost his star status. On the other hand, Thames is a physical specimen, something only the World Eating Federation would have said about Fielder.

We know for sure Thames won't put up a 1.000 slugging percentage. It will be fun to see what he does manage to do. I'm rooting for him. As we say in Korea, 행운을!