04 May 2017

From Superstar to Bench Warmer: Andrew McCutchen's Demise

Remember Dale Murphy, the Braves' star center fielder who stood atop the baseball mountain from 1982 to 1987? He hit 45% better than average, smashed 36 homers a year, won five Gold Gloves and two MVPs, and was headed to Cooperstown.

Then, at age 32, he turned into a pumpkin. In his last six seasons, he hit just .234/.307/.396 with just 88 homers. He stole the same number of bases in those six seasons as he had in '87 alone (16) but was caught four more times (10). He moved to right field as his glove got ragged and he never sniffed the Hall.

The same thing appears to have happened to Andrew McCutchen, except in a much shorter period of time. Year before last, he was a certified superstar, a five-tool highlight reel and a perennial top 5 MVP candidate. He hit .313/.404/.523 for the four years corresponding with his age 25-28 seasons, while commanding center field and delivering 26 WAR. He won the MVP in 2013 and was even better in '14. The woebegone Pirates made the playoffs.

McCutchen wasn't the same last year, at age 29, and the whispers began. His fielding was, by all accounts, no longer tolerable in center. His hitting waned to .259/.336/.430, below average for an outfielder. And the Bucs stayed home in October.

Most confoundingly, there didn't seem to be any underlying injury to blame for the slippage. Pitchers just seemed to be able to get him out. Or maybe he was just hiding something.

So 2017 has bloomed with Cutch in right field. His fielding has ticked up so far. And his hitting has ticked further down. Now it's early, but there's no sign of the guy who, just two years ago, finished fifth in MVP balloting. He's hitting .235/.321/.435, almost all of it against lefties.

So now the talk has begun: is Cutch a platoon player? Is he a fourth outfielder? Was that it? He's 30 years old!

It's only early May and McCutchen might bounce back to his old form. But every day he's just ordinary is another piece of data suggesting that's what he now is. It's a mighty, and mighty quick, fall for a guy who was the face of the game just yesterday.


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