These guys all play on the same team, in a home stadium that had a messy divorce with offense long ago:
Left fielder .301/.368/.496, six steals
Catcher .271/.381/.395, as many walks as strikeouts
First baseman .343/.398/.500
Utility infielder .361/.451/.475, plays more than half-time
Second baseman .343/.363/.452
Many believe they have the best pitching staff in the league. First place right?
Well, they're the $230 million L. A. Dodgers, 13-20 and last in the NL West. They've surrendered the third most runs in the NL. Their
offense is even worse.
With that lineup? How?
You can't blame Carl Crawford, AJ Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto and Mark Ellis (the lines above, respectively). The trade with Boston is paying off.
But that's the whole shooting match. Superstar center-fielder Matt Kemp has one home run. His pasture-mate, Andre Ethier, is hitting an empty .243. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez is on the shelf and his backup, Justin Sellers, is hitting .191 with two extra base hits.
And those players are All-World compared to third baseman Luis Cruz. .090/.114/.090 with one walk and 12 strikeouts. His backup is Juan Uribe, .220/.371/.340. Uribe is getting on base -- 12 walks in 62 plate appearances, but he has no speed and can't carry Cruz's glove.
The result: The second fewest runs in the NL. The Dodgers are hitting .213 with runners in scoring
position. AJ Ellis has been on base 43 times this year and scored five runs. The Dodgers don't leave the yard much, except to drive home after a
loss.
With Zack Greinke nursing his WWE injury and Chad Billingsley joining the New Elbow Tendon Club, nine hurlers have earned a start from manager Don Mattingly. Five of them have failed to hold opponents to under five runs-a-game. Closer Brandon League is getting lit up. The bullpen has blown five of 14 save opportunities.
And Josh Beckett; -- 0-4, 5.14 -- appears to be as fried as the chicken he loves.
Los Angeles can certainly blame the injury bug -- Greinke, Billingsley, Ramirez, Ted Lilly and others have been hurt. Kemp is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. But they'll have injuries all season, as will everyone, and without a bench, they won't survive.
Magic Johnson and Dodger management threw around the greenbacks to build this team, but they forgot to invest in a bench. Other than Punto and maybe Skip Schumaker, they really don't have the supporting cast to fill in for extended stretches while regulars inevitably hobble off the field. Money can be a powerful weapon if used strategically, but if all it does is overpay a small coterie of players, this is the unsurprising result.
The stars and scrubs approach has never fared well over 162 games.
There's still plenty of time in the eminently winnable NL West to capture the magic and make a run. But someone besides those guys at the top is going to have to step up. Mark Ellis isn't going to hit .343 all year.
12 May 2013
11 May 2013
The Bronx: The Place to Be
Had you examined the Washington Nationals a week ago, when they were scuffling with the .500 monster, you'd have seen a team of all upside. Lady Luck hadn't been kind to Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, and Dan Haren's sub-replacement activities screamed "$13 million wasted!"
The non-Bryce division of the offense had been flirting with Mario Mendoza and poked just 11 more homers than their left-fielder alone. Expensive first baseman re-signee, Adam LaRoche had been out-hit by some pitchers. Second base had been a black hole of offense.
And yet, after four wins in five games, the Nats have moved within hailing distance of first place. A few switch-flips later -- LaRoche is a notoriously streaky batter -- and Washington, no longer first in war or peace, can again be first in the NL East.
As for the AL East, Las Vegas bookmakers are hiding under their desks. In a year in which the Red Sox were rebuilding, the Yankees were taking a luxury cap-induced hiatus and the Orioles were falling to earth -- they weren't! The three teams are tied for the top of the toughest division with .600+ winning percentages.
Boston and Baltimore are pounding the ball -- can you say Daniel Nava? Chris Davis? And the Yankees, well.
After Robby Cano, New York's top offensive performers are all placeholders -- Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Francisco Cervelli, Ichiro Suzuki. Their starting staff, with the sole exception of Ivan Nova, is clamping down on opponents while the Sandman warms up his Hall of Fame arm. Having lost a virtual All-Star team to the DL, New York is somehow still exercising its Manifest Destiny to the top of the standings.
The Bombers lost 164 home runs to free agency and injury in the off-season and yet still lead the AL in that category. Fulltime DH Travis Hafner, one of the many reclamation projects on the roster, deserves some of the credit. Pronk is the most dramatic example of once-productive players who fell into the Yankees' arms and have delivered this season.
A superstar slugger for three years mid-decade, Hafner has struggled to stay on the field since 2008. This year, at age 36 but without a defensive position to concern him, he has so far avoided injury and pounded out a .284/.408/.568 performance for the Yankees.
It's a similar story for 34-year-old Vernon Wells. With his massive salary off-loaded to Toronto and Anaheim, New York is getting the performance. Filling in for a host of injured outfielders, Wells has delivered with the glove and the wood, hitting .294/.346/.504.
Even better, these senior citizens won't have to over-perform all season. When Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira return, Joe Girardi will send Hafner, Wells and their compadres back to spot duty.
If it can ever be a good time to live in the Bronx, now is the time. Come the All-Star break, the home nine will improve dramatically. Disappointing Tampa and Toronto can be expected to do the same, but they have ground to make up. Boston and Baltimore, who are square with the Yankees now, will need to make trading deadline moves to keep up.
Yep, the Bronx: it's the place to be.
The non-Bryce division of the offense had been flirting with Mario Mendoza and poked just 11 more homers than their left-fielder alone. Expensive first baseman re-signee, Adam LaRoche had been out-hit by some pitchers. Second base had been a black hole of offense.
And yet, after four wins in five games, the Nats have moved within hailing distance of first place. A few switch-flips later -- LaRoche is a notoriously streaky batter -- and Washington, no longer first in war or peace, can again be first in the NL East.
As for the AL East, Las Vegas bookmakers are hiding under their desks. In a year in which the Red Sox were rebuilding, the Yankees were taking a luxury cap-induced hiatus and the Orioles were falling to earth -- they weren't! The three teams are tied for the top of the toughest division with .600+ winning percentages.
Boston and Baltimore are pounding the ball -- can you say Daniel Nava? Chris Davis? And the Yankees, well.
After Robby Cano, New York's top offensive performers are all placeholders -- Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Francisco Cervelli, Ichiro Suzuki. Their starting staff, with the sole exception of Ivan Nova, is clamping down on opponents while the Sandman warms up his Hall of Fame arm. Having lost a virtual All-Star team to the DL, New York is somehow still exercising its Manifest Destiny to the top of the standings.
The Bombers lost 164 home runs to free agency and injury in the off-season and yet still lead the AL in that category. Fulltime DH Travis Hafner, one of the many reclamation projects on the roster, deserves some of the credit. Pronk is the most dramatic example of once-productive players who fell into the Yankees' arms and have delivered this season.
A superstar slugger for three years mid-decade, Hafner has struggled to stay on the field since 2008. This year, at age 36 but without a defensive position to concern him, he has so far avoided injury and pounded out a .284/.408/.568 performance for the Yankees.
It's a similar story for 34-year-old Vernon Wells. With his massive salary off-loaded to Toronto and Anaheim, New York is getting the performance. Filling in for a host of injured outfielders, Wells has delivered with the glove and the wood, hitting .294/.346/.504.
Even better, these senior citizens won't have to over-perform all season. When Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira return, Joe Girardi will send Hafner, Wells and their compadres back to spot duty.
If it can ever be a good time to live in the Bronx, now is the time. Come the All-Star break, the home nine will improve dramatically. Disappointing Tampa and Toronto can be expected to do the same, but they have ground to make up. Boston and Baltimore, who are square with the Yankees now, will need to make trading deadline moves to keep up.
Yep, the Bronx: it's the place to be.
10 May 2013
What's Changed In Two Weeks?
One advantage of being disengaged for two weeks is that sport takes shape in more coherent form than in the normal day-to-day rhythms. While I've been gone, the Blue Jays have flown the coop, Anaheim has taken up the Astro challenge, Washington seems to have righted itself and the AL East has coalesced into an unlikely dogfight.
Remember when this was the window of opportunity to beat New York and Boston?
It might still be so, and the Angels and Toronto might still square off for a World Series berth. We're not even a fifth of the way through the season -- three games' worth in NFL calculus. But another 10 games from now, when a quarter of a team's record is in the books, would be a good time to begin worrying.
Yahoo's Jeff Passan points out that seven of the last 10 AL East bottom feeders after 32 games finished the season in last place -- and none in playoff contention. That bodes ill for a 13-23 Blue Jay contingent that's 8.5 games out of third place and fourth worst in baseball in preventing runs.
What's particularly galling for Toronto fans is that they don't have a rash of injuries or hard scheduling to blame for the rough patch. Among significant contributors -- or those expected to be -- only Jose Reyes is hurt, and that had to be built into the equation anyway. The newly refurbished starting pitching has gone over like a banana eggplant sandwich and the offense hasn't tasted much better. (Though it is worth mentioning that the team has stolen bases at an admirable 76% clip.)
In all, the only hope that Toronto makes a go of it is that they just plain start playing better. The track record among the gentlemen they'll be counting on is pretty mixed.
It's a similar issue for the Angels, except we have more confidence in the personnel. Albert Pujols won't ever again be the greatest player on the planet, but he'll hit. Josh Hamilton will still strike out too much, but he'll figure out how to homer against someone other than the Astros and won't still be sporting a .267 OBP at year's end (unless he breaks his femur tonight.) Jered Weaver will return from the DL. Joe Blanton (0-6, 5.66) -- okay, a guy who surrenders 14 hits a game and whiffs just five, he's over.
The point is, the 12-22 Angels have played like poop, but we're pretty sure they're not poop. Whether, on the smell meter, they're scented perfume or liverwurst, and whether they can catch the Rangers (or the Wild Card contenders) is the question.
Tomorrow we'll examine the other two-week trends.
Remember when this was the window of opportunity to beat New York and Boston?
It might still be so, and the Angels and Toronto might still square off for a World Series berth. We're not even a fifth of the way through the season -- three games' worth in NFL calculus. But another 10 games from now, when a quarter of a team's record is in the books, would be a good time to begin worrying.
Yahoo's Jeff Passan points out that seven of the last 10 AL East bottom feeders after 32 games finished the season in last place -- and none in playoff contention. That bodes ill for a 13-23 Blue Jay contingent that's 8.5 games out of third place and fourth worst in baseball in preventing runs.
What's particularly galling for Toronto fans is that they don't have a rash of injuries or hard scheduling to blame for the rough patch. Among significant contributors -- or those expected to be -- only Jose Reyes is hurt, and that had to be built into the equation anyway. The newly refurbished starting pitching has gone over like a banana eggplant sandwich and the offense hasn't tasted much better. (Though it is worth mentioning that the team has stolen bases at an admirable 76% clip.)
In all, the only hope that Toronto makes a go of it is that they just plain start playing better. The track record among the gentlemen they'll be counting on is pretty mixed.
It's a similar issue for the Angels, except we have more confidence in the personnel. Albert Pujols won't ever again be the greatest player on the planet, but he'll hit. Josh Hamilton will still strike out too much, but he'll figure out how to homer against someone other than the Astros and won't still be sporting a .267 OBP at year's end (unless he breaks his femur tonight.) Jered Weaver will return from the DL. Joe Blanton (0-6, 5.66) -- okay, a guy who surrenders 14 hits a game and whiffs just five, he's over.
The point is, the 12-22 Angels have played like poop, but we're pretty sure they're not poop. Whether, on the smell meter, they're scented perfume or liverwurst, and whether they can catch the Rangers (or the Wild Card contenders) is the question.
Tomorrow we'll examine the other two-week trends.
01 May 2013
Mr. Underrated
If you were going to craft an underrated position player in baseball you'd put him on a bad team in a small market and subject him to a home stadium that's antagonistic towards offense.
The player wouldn't hit .300 and he wouldn't pound a lot of homers. But he'd get on base at a nice clip and accumulate a lot of doubles and triples. He wouldn't stock up on RBIs, in part because his teammates don't get on base ahead of him.
Mr. Underrated would be a good defensive player, but not the flashy type who makes regular Web Gem appearances. He wouldn't tweet, or if he did, he wouldn't say anything notably stupid.
The same speed, good instincts and game knowledge responsible for his good defense would also inform his baserunning. He wouldn't hang gaudy steal numbers, but his SB percentage would be excellent and he would run the bases well and rarely make a mistake on the basepaths.
It wouldn't hurt his underrated status if he was highly touted but hadn't quite lived up to his billing. If a teammate has eclipsed him, so much the better.
That's the profile of Alex Gordon, the Royals' seventh-year pro. Now staffing left field, Gordon has hit .301/.372/.481 in tough Kaufman Stadium since 2011. He's gone yard just 39 times in that period but supplemented that with 102 doubles and 11 triples. A former third baseman, Gordon grades well above average with the glove and on the basepaths despite very modest stolen base numbers.
By wins above replacement, Gordon has been the eighth most valuable position player in the majors over the last 162 games, keeping company with Robinson Cano, Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun. You likely hadn't placed Gordon in that rarefied air. And that's just the point.
Gordon will have to clear the fences twice as often or win a couple of batting titles to raise his profile, and to that end he's hitting .345 so far this year. But even if he doesn't achieve either, staying healthy and continuing his broad-based excellence will keep him among the game's elite and help Kansas City make a run or two at the playoffs over the next few seasons.
The player wouldn't hit .300 and he wouldn't pound a lot of homers. But he'd get on base at a nice clip and accumulate a lot of doubles and triples. He wouldn't stock up on RBIs, in part because his teammates don't get on base ahead of him.
Mr. Underrated would be a good defensive player, but not the flashy type who makes regular Web Gem appearances. He wouldn't tweet, or if he did, he wouldn't say anything notably stupid.
The same speed, good instincts and game knowledge responsible for his good defense would also inform his baserunning. He wouldn't hang gaudy steal numbers, but his SB percentage would be excellent and he would run the bases well and rarely make a mistake on the basepaths.
It wouldn't hurt his underrated status if he was highly touted but hadn't quite lived up to his billing. If a teammate has eclipsed him, so much the better.
That's the profile of Alex Gordon, the Royals' seventh-year pro. Now staffing left field, Gordon has hit .301/.372/.481 in tough Kaufman Stadium since 2011. He's gone yard just 39 times in that period but supplemented that with 102 doubles and 11 triples. A former third baseman, Gordon grades well above average with the glove and on the basepaths despite very modest stolen base numbers.
By wins above replacement, Gordon has been the eighth most valuable position player in the majors over the last 162 games, keeping company with Robinson Cano, Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun. You likely hadn't placed Gordon in that rarefied air. And that's just the point.
Gordon will have to clear the fences twice as often or win a couple of batting titles to raise his profile, and to that end he's hitting .345 so far this year. But even if he doesn't achieve either, staying healthy and continuing his broad-based excellence will keep him among the game's elite and help Kansas City make a run or two at the playoffs over the next few seasons.
29 April 2013
That Sinking Feeling On Lake Ontario
The new-look Toronto Blue Jays are off to a 9-17 start after a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Yankees' B squad. They're 9.5 games out of first and have the worst record among Major League teams in the American League. (That excludes the Astros.) They've been outscored 130-95.
It must feel like deja vu for the former Miami Marlins now populating the Blue Jay lineup. After big splash signings before last season, the Marlins turned their gaudy new stadium into a funeral home by crashing into last place and staying there.
It's worth examining whether the imports are the problem or whether the stalwarts from last season's 73-89 team are failing. The answer won't surprise you: it's been a team effort.
Anchoring Toronto last season were slugging right fielder Jose Bautista, breakout first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and pitcher Brandon Morrow.
Encarnacion posted an anomalous .280/.384/.557 with 42 home runs last season, 52% better than average. Bautista smashed 27 homers in half a season while battling a broken wrist. Morrow paced the staff with a 10-7, 2.96 mark in 21 starts.
To that the Jays added R.A. Dickey, the NL Cy Young; two Marlin signees, shortstop Jose Reyes and innings eater Mark Buehrle; and rehabbing Marlin star hurler Josh Johnson; plus drug-fueled Melky Cabrera and infielders Macier Izturis and Emilio Bonifacio.
None of those above-named has delivered in Ontario. Reyes exploded out of the gate with a .476 on base percentage before spraining his way to a familiar spot on the 60-day disabled list. The rest of the everyday players have failed to reach base safely even 32% of the time, though Bautista and Encarnacion are slugging. Typical is Cabrera, whose sudden leap to competence in 2011 and 2012 now seem to owe a debt of gratitude to chemistry. At .250/.303/.300, the Melk Man has achieved an OPS 303 points lower than last year's.
On the hill, Dickey's inconsistent knuckler isn't fooling American League batters, yet at 2-3, 4.66, a far cry from his 2012 domination, he's the ace of those expected to contribute by a country kilometre. Morrow, Johnson and Buehrle are 1-4, 6.12 in the early going.
The Jays start the week with a three-game home set against the first-place Red Sox that offers an opportunity to slice that deficit. Losing two or more in the Rogers Centre will drop them 10+ games behind and set tongues wagging. It's ridiculously early yet, of course, but this is not a division in which 10-game holes are easily scaled.
This Bryce Harper Guy Is Pretty Good
In his first 162 games, Bryce Harper, now a grizzled veteran of 20, has been one of the 10 best everyday players in the majors.
He's soon to eclipse the record for home runs before age 21, currently held by Mel Ott. See the whole Fangraphs article.
He's soon to eclipse the record for home runs before age 21, currently held by Mel Ott. See the whole Fangraphs article.
28 April 2013
This, That and the Other
Ken "Hawk" Harrelson's nine-year vagabond MLB career included a third-place MVP finish in 1968 and a fair amount of part-time, above-average offense. Hawk was an amusing blowhard when he played and he's maintained that record as the Chicago White Sox color analyst.
Harrelson is a card-carrying member of the Tantrum Club whose members stick their fingers in their ears and moan through rolled tongues whenever new analysis explodes their deeply-held mythology. In fact, Harrelson might even be president of this club.
Brian Kenny is a saber-wise host on the MLB network who has educated nearly as many people about baseball as Harrelson has stupefied. Kenny brought Harrelson on his show last week and allowed him an opportunity to explain his ideas, which is another way of saying he provided Hawk enough rope to hang himself.
Harrelson eschews illuminating statistics based on actual research in favor of his own unquantifiable measure -- the will to win. During his rant, he made a long series of provably false claims and if you need to have the evidence provided, you've probably stumbled on the wrong site. Thanks anyway for visiting.
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The truncated NHL season has come to a merciful end and now half the teams start all over with three more months of playoffs. Last season, the L.A. Kings, the last team into the playoffs with more losses than wins, swept through their higher-seeded opponents en route to the Stanley Cup.
When it comes to winning the championship, the regular season is so utterly irrelevant that every contender ought to be installed in Las Vegas as a 15-1 shot.
There are three teams in this year's tournament that have lost as many games as they've won -- Detroit, Ottawa and the Islanders, but you'd never know it from the standings. In an effort to obfuscate how weak the lower-tier playoff contenders are, the NHL calls overtime losses "ties" but overtime victories "wins." As a result, the standings suggest that the Red Wings are 24-16-8 when in fact they won 24 (probably some of them in overtime) and lost 24.
When you have to resort to trickery to validate your product, perhaps you need a new product. Hockey is a spectacular product; the NHL is a disaster.
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Now that the Lakers have proved to be pretenders not just in the regular season but in the playoffs as well, sports talk radio has swiveled its collective head to the other coast. "Next," (after more ads than the Super Bowl) "can the Knicks beat the Heat?"
No.
Now what do we talk about?
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The extraordinarily entertaining and intriguing NFL draft features a handful of encyclopedic minds offering instant critiques like old testament pronouncements about each pick. They never mention the one item that would be particularly illuminating: their own track record.
You heard a lot of analysis of Geno Smith, E.J. Manuel and the other QBs, including definitive statements about how they were taken too high or low. Some of the comparisons invoked the names Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.
How many of these football sachems were calling for teams to draft Wilson and Kaepernick? How many of them even thought Wilson and Kaepernick would start a game in their first two years, much less lead their teams into the playoffs?
Yeah, I thought so.
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Here's another NFL draft head scratcher: teams have been criticized for choosing a player in the right round, but not with the right pick. For example, the team with the ninth pick selects the best player at a position they need who is rated the 20th best player. "He's not a #9 pick," they say.
But the team isn't picking 20th; they're picking ninth. And presumably no one with the next 10 selections will trade with them. So they take the guy they want with the pick they have. If selecting that player will make the team better, isn't that the right choice? It seems like a silly criticism to me.
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The first 25 games of a season are too small a sample to draw conclusions from scratch. For example, the Rockies are 15-9, but we don't know whether they're that good, they're just on a hot streak or some gust of luck has blown their way. (Actually we do know that good scheduling has been at least partly responsible for Colorado's success. They're 1-5 against the Braves and Giants and 6-0 against the sad-sack Padres. Plus, they swept a three-game set against the Mets -- at home in the snow.)
On the other hand, we can learn a lot about things we already thought we knew. Here are four last place teams, with a combined record of 29-65: Houston, Miami, the Cubs and San Diego. It's not too early to draw conclusions about these collections. We thought they would stink and they have delivered in spades.
Harrelson is a card-carrying member of the Tantrum Club whose members stick their fingers in their ears and moan through rolled tongues whenever new analysis explodes their deeply-held mythology. In fact, Harrelson might even be president of this club.
Brian Kenny is a saber-wise host on the MLB network who has educated nearly as many people about baseball as Harrelson has stupefied. Kenny brought Harrelson on his show last week and allowed him an opportunity to explain his ideas, which is another way of saying he provided Hawk enough rope to hang himself.
Harrelson eschews illuminating statistics based on actual research in favor of his own unquantifiable measure -- the will to win. During his rant, he made a long series of provably false claims and if you need to have the evidence provided, you've probably stumbled on the wrong site. Thanks anyway for visiting.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The truncated NHL season has come to a merciful end and now half the teams start all over with three more months of playoffs. Last season, the L.A. Kings, the last team into the playoffs with more losses than wins, swept through their higher-seeded opponents en route to the Stanley Cup.
When it comes to winning the championship, the regular season is so utterly irrelevant that every contender ought to be installed in Las Vegas as a 15-1 shot.
There are three teams in this year's tournament that have lost as many games as they've won -- Detroit, Ottawa and the Islanders, but you'd never know it from the standings. In an effort to obfuscate how weak the lower-tier playoff contenders are, the NHL calls overtime losses "ties" but overtime victories "wins." As a result, the standings suggest that the Red Wings are 24-16-8 when in fact they won 24 (probably some of them in overtime) and lost 24.
When you have to resort to trickery to validate your product, perhaps you need a new product. Hockey is a spectacular product; the NHL is a disaster.
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Now that the Lakers have proved to be pretenders not just in the regular season but in the playoffs as well, sports talk radio has swiveled its collective head to the other coast. "Next," (after more ads than the Super Bowl) "can the Knicks beat the Heat?"
No.
Now what do we talk about?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The extraordinarily entertaining and intriguing NFL draft features a handful of encyclopedic minds offering instant critiques like old testament pronouncements about each pick. They never mention the one item that would be particularly illuminating: their own track record.
You heard a lot of analysis of Geno Smith, E.J. Manuel and the other QBs, including definitive statements about how they were taken too high or low. Some of the comparisons invoked the names Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.
How many of these football sachems were calling for teams to draft Wilson and Kaepernick? How many of them even thought Wilson and Kaepernick would start a game in their first two years, much less lead their teams into the playoffs?
Yeah, I thought so.
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Here's another NFL draft head scratcher: teams have been criticized for choosing a player in the right round, but not with the right pick. For example, the team with the ninth pick selects the best player at a position they need who is rated the 20th best player. "He's not a #9 pick," they say.
But the team isn't picking 20th; they're picking ninth. And presumably no one with the next 10 selections will trade with them. So they take the guy they want with the pick they have. If selecting that player will make the team better, isn't that the right choice? It seems like a silly criticism to me.
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The first 25 games of a season are too small a sample to draw conclusions from scratch. For example, the Rockies are 15-9, but we don't know whether they're that good, they're just on a hot streak or some gust of luck has blown their way. (Actually we do know that good scheduling has been at least partly responsible for Colorado's success. They're 1-5 against the Braves and Giants and 6-0 against the sad-sack Padres. Plus, they swept a three-game set against the Mets -- at home in the snow.)
On the other hand, we can learn a lot about things we already thought we knew. Here are four last place teams, with a combined record of 29-65: Houston, Miami, the Cubs and San Diego. It's not too early to draw conclusions about these collections. We thought they would stink and they have delivered in spades.
26 April 2013
Ladies and Gentlemen: Your Houami Marstros
If all the girls who attended the Yale prom were laid end to end, I wouldn't be a bit surprised.
-- Dorothy Parker
And suppose you laid the rosters of the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins end-to-end. What would Dorothy Parker make of their WAR?
The answer resides in the "two wrongs don't make a right" range. In this case, two minor league teams don't make a major league squad, even with 6'5" Giancarlo Stanton swatting big flies and 5'6" Jose Altuve scampering around the basepaths. Where some clubs are rebuilding, these two have been condemned, faced demolition and are now empty lots.
I decided to conduct a little thought experiment -- the kind that got Albert Einstein a Nobel Prize -- by combining the two hapless franchises and examining the results.
There is no spoiler alert here: you already know that nothing plus nothing is still nothing. Besides the exciting Altuve, Houston's best players are a 34-year-old outfielder (Rick Ankiel) who got cut last year after 171 plate appearances in Washington, a 35-year-old first baseman (Carlos Pena) who hasn't hit above .227 in five years, and a fourth starter (Bud Norris) with a 4.41 lifetime ERA. Center fielder Justin Maxwell, who swatted 18 homers in half a season last year, might be considered a prospect, though his 114 strikeouts give pause.
And the Astros could win a best-of-seven series against Miami in three games.
The entire Marlin roster has managed six home runs in 20 games, the same number as Atlanta's rookie fill-in backstop, Evan Gattis. Miami's clean-up hitter is Placido Polanco, a 37-year-old third baseman who slugged .327 last year. Miami's top performer after Stanton is fourth starter Ricky Nolasco, a Florida lifer with a 22-25, 4.58 record the last two years. For lack of any other on-field asset, the Marlins employ starter Kevin Slowey, whose two previous seasons feature an 0-8, 6.67 line in 2011 and a year of minor league banishment in 2012.
Not only don't the Houami Marstros (or the Miahou Aslins) avoid 100 losses, but if you contracted both franchises, the rest of the baseball would be hard-pressed to find roster spots for more than a handful of players. (This may be a disservice to Justin Ruggiano, Miami's center fielder who batted .312/.374/.535 with 13 dingers in half a season last year. But that's also the sum total of the damage his bat has done in 10 years of professional baseball. He's 31 and has never otherwise posted an OBP above .273.)
I considered salting the formula with the Seattle Mariners team photo, which, absent King Felix, is such an insult to the state of Washington that even Oregon is indignant. But it's not the lack of actual major league baseball talent on the Marinaters' roster that is so pungent, it's the putrefying remains of Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Justin Smoak. And Endy Chavez, who once upon a time played in Montreal and has served 36 major league, minor league and winter ball teams in his long horsehide journey.
If you live in a minor league town you'll want to familiarize yourself with the players on these teams. They'll be toiling for your team soon enough.
-- Dorothy Parker
And suppose you laid the rosters of the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins end-to-end. What would Dorothy Parker make of their WAR?
The answer resides in the "two wrongs don't make a right" range. In this case, two minor league teams don't make a major league squad, even with 6'5" Giancarlo Stanton swatting big flies and 5'6" Jose Altuve scampering around the basepaths. Where some clubs are rebuilding, these two have been condemned, faced demolition and are now empty lots.
I decided to conduct a little thought experiment -- the kind that got Albert Einstein a Nobel Prize -- by combining the two hapless franchises and examining the results.
There is no spoiler alert here: you already know that nothing plus nothing is still nothing. Besides the exciting Altuve, Houston's best players are a 34-year-old outfielder (Rick Ankiel) who got cut last year after 171 plate appearances in Washington, a 35-year-old first baseman (Carlos Pena) who hasn't hit above .227 in five years, and a fourth starter (Bud Norris) with a 4.41 lifetime ERA. Center fielder Justin Maxwell, who swatted 18 homers in half a season last year, might be considered a prospect, though his 114 strikeouts give pause.
And the Astros could win a best-of-seven series against Miami in three games.
The entire Marlin roster has managed six home runs in 20 games, the same number as Atlanta's rookie fill-in backstop, Evan Gattis. Miami's clean-up hitter is Placido Polanco, a 37-year-old third baseman who slugged .327 last year. Miami's top performer after Stanton is fourth starter Ricky Nolasco, a Florida lifer with a 22-25, 4.58 record the last two years. For lack of any other on-field asset, the Marlins employ starter Kevin Slowey, whose two previous seasons feature an 0-8, 6.67 line in 2011 and a year of minor league banishment in 2012.
Not only don't the Houami Marstros (or the Miahou Aslins) avoid 100 losses, but if you contracted both franchises, the rest of the baseball would be hard-pressed to find roster spots for more than a handful of players. (This may be a disservice to Justin Ruggiano, Miami's center fielder who batted .312/.374/.535 with 13 dingers in half a season last year. But that's also the sum total of the damage his bat has done in 10 years of professional baseball. He's 31 and has never otherwise posted an OBP above .273.)
I considered salting the formula with the Seattle Mariners team photo, which, absent King Felix, is such an insult to the state of Washington that even Oregon is indignant. But it's not the lack of actual major league baseball talent on the Marinaters' roster that is so pungent, it's the putrefying remains of Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Justin Smoak. And Endy Chavez, who once upon a time played in Montreal and has served 36 major league, minor league and winter ball teams in his long horsehide journey.
If you live in a minor league town you'll want to familiarize yourself with the players on these teams. They'll be toiling for your team soon enough.
23 April 2013
We Knew That Bryce Harper Couldn't Keep It Up
Could Bryce Harper really be as good at age 20 as he was at 19? No way. He's better. After picking it up in the power department during last year's second half, he's now pounding NL pitching with seven home runs and .353/.421/.706.
Mike Trout was poised to swallow a big old helping of regression pie after his age-20 season. After bullying his elders in 2012, he's off to a .291/.337/.481 start with just two jacks. On the other hand, he's swiped three bases without a misstep, bringing his career record to 56 steals, five outs.
Both will be challenged to accumulate the value they did last year, as each has moved over from stints in center field to a more or less full-time gig in left.
It's too early to tell exactly what the contours of their season will be. But if you thought 2012 was just a voting-age fluke for these two, well, OPS of 1127 and 818 say otherwise.
Mike Trout was poised to swallow a big old helping of regression pie after his age-20 season. After bullying his elders in 2012, he's off to a .291/.337/.481 start with just two jacks. On the other hand, he's swiped three bases without a misstep, bringing his career record to 56 steals, five outs.
Both will be challenged to accumulate the value they did last year, as each has moved over from stints in center field to a more or less full-time gig in left.
It's too early to tell exactly what the contours of their season will be. But if you thought 2012 was just a voting-age fluke for these two, well, OPS of 1127 and 818 say otherwise.
21 April 2013
A Tale of Two Sluggers
It was the best of starts. It was the worst of starts. Two all-or-nothing sluggers are providing their teams with a bit of all and a bit of nothing, and the contrast is instructive.
Mark Reynolds is now donning Indian garb, swinging his Three True Outcomes stick in Cleveland. Reynolds is the owner of three 204+ strikeout seasons, four 74+ walk seasons and three 32+ home run seasons.
He's following in the gigantic footsteps of 285-pound Adam Dunn, he of 409 lifetime home runs, 2055 whiffs and 1173 free passes. The Big Donkey is coming off a season in which he batted just .204 but gave the White Sox 105 walks and 41 home runs.
For both these players, it's really all about batting average. Even amassing big piles of walks and long balls, they're not real valuable without a few other hits sprinkled in. Dunn's hitting was 12% above average last year; add in his utter lack of baserunning or defensive value and he was pretty close to replacement level despite leaving the yard 41 times. With Reynolds, it's the same equation with a little more defensive and baserunning prowess, but fewer jogs to first.
With one-tenth of the season in the books, Reynolds is getting it done for the Tribe, collecting seven homers and an 1.128 OPS. Dunn is coming undone: three homers and a .454 OPS. One other detail is worth noting:
Mark Reynolds .298/391/.737, 8BB/15K, 7HR
Adam Dunn .108/.159/.295 3BB/26K, 3HR
Dunn is fanning in nearly half his plate appearances, which leaves little opportunity to be productive. Reynolds is making more contact, which leads to more of everything good.
This bodes very poorly for the White Sox, who are paying Dunn for his prodigious Big Fly tendencies accompanied by tolerable batting averages in the .230s. Since he arrived on the South Side in 2011, he's averaged .179/.307/.374, 28 homers, 95 BB and 219 K per 150 games. Not only is Chicago not getting its $15 million worth, it's not getting roster spot value. And the small sample size excuse doesn't work here because it's 289 games of data.
It's very early in 2013 and sluggers are notoriously streaky, so there's hope for Adam Dunn. The tables have turned and now Mark Reynolds is Dunn's guide. But he'll have to dig back to 2010 to turn things around.
Mark Reynolds is now donning Indian garb, swinging his Three True Outcomes stick in Cleveland. Reynolds is the owner of three 204+ strikeout seasons, four 74+ walk seasons and three 32+ home run seasons.
He's following in the gigantic footsteps of 285-pound Adam Dunn, he of 409 lifetime home runs, 2055 whiffs and 1173 free passes. The Big Donkey is coming off a season in which he batted just .204 but gave the White Sox 105 walks and 41 home runs.
For both these players, it's really all about batting average. Even amassing big piles of walks and long balls, they're not real valuable without a few other hits sprinkled in. Dunn's hitting was 12% above average last year; add in his utter lack of baserunning or defensive value and he was pretty close to replacement level despite leaving the yard 41 times. With Reynolds, it's the same equation with a little more defensive and baserunning prowess, but fewer jogs to first.
With one-tenth of the season in the books, Reynolds is getting it done for the Tribe, collecting seven homers and an 1.128 OPS. Dunn is coming undone: three homers and a .454 OPS. One other detail is worth noting:
Mark Reynolds .298/391/.737, 8BB/15K, 7HR
Adam Dunn .108/.159/.295 3BB/26K, 3HR
Dunn is fanning in nearly half his plate appearances, which leaves little opportunity to be productive. Reynolds is making more contact, which leads to more of everything good.
This bodes very poorly for the White Sox, who are paying Dunn for his prodigious Big Fly tendencies accompanied by tolerable batting averages in the .230s. Since he arrived on the South Side in 2011, he's averaged .179/.307/.374, 28 homers, 95 BB and 219 K per 150 games. Not only is Chicago not getting its $15 million worth, it's not getting roster spot value. And the small sample size excuse doesn't work here because it's 289 games of data.
It's very early in 2013 and sluggers are notoriously streaky, so there's hope for Adam Dunn. The tables have turned and now Mark Reynolds is Dunn's guide. But he'll have to dig back to 2010 to turn things around.
20 April 2013
Small Sample Size Fun
If the first three weeks of the season are any indication, the Mets' Matt Harvey is the greatest pitcher of all time. Harvey has dominated opposing batters to the tune of 4-0, 0.93 with 10 hits allowed in 29 innings. He'd won just three games in his entire career before this (10 starts last season.)
And Cardinal first baseman Matt Adams is the greatest masher in history. His .524/.565/1.048 slash stats represent seven games of near invincibility. His 23 plate appearances have produced two walks and 11 hits -- three homers, two doubles and six singles. His 1.613 OPS is more than triple the league average.
Justin Upton leads the majors with nine bombs. Upton didn't smack his ninth last season until August, more than 100 games into the season. His .820 slugging percentage with Atlanta nearly doubles last year's work with Arizona. If you average out the Uptons, by adding in the struggles of Justin's older brother and outfield-mate BJ, you get a less Ruthian .235/.314/.568. I suspect the Uptons would cotton to an .882 OPS in 2013; they'd just like it distributed more evenly.
How about Mr. Vottomatic, Cincinatti's Joey Votto? There's nothing flukey about Votto pacing the majors in walks, but 24 free passes in 80 plate appearances is a bit rich for a guy with just one home run. Votto's on base average of .500 dwarfs his pedestrian .377 slugging average. Most players with upside-down OBP-SLG numbers are Slappy McSpeedster types, not MVP candidates.
Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis is a hero or zero kind of guy. Last season he helped the surprising Orioles by blasting 33 jacks, but otherwise fanned 169 times with just 37 walks, a nearly 5-1 ratio. He's improved on both in 15 games so far this year -- 13 Ks and nine BBs -- en route to the AL lead in homers, RBIs and OPS.
With 21 RBI in 16 games, journeyman backstop John Buck leads the majors, despite playing his home games in the offense-suppressant Citi Field surrounded by a lineup of Justin Turner, David Murphy and Ike Davis (and, to be fair, David Wright). Buck brought home 41 runs in seven times as many 2012 plate appearances.
But if power is your thing, Oakland's Coco Crisp is your guy. With five home runs, seven doubles and a triple in just 58 at bats, Crisp leads MLB in extra base hits. That's an extra base hit every 4.5 at bats. In his previous 4400 major league at bats, Crisp crushed 378 extra base hits, about once every 11.5 at bats. Can you say "regression?"
Kurt Suzuki can. The Nationals' catcher entered today's tilt against the Mets at a handsome .321/.444/.714. An oh-fer day left him at .281/.366/.625. Still attractive, but hardly photo-worthy. Two more days like that and he'll be right around his career numbers of .256/.313/.383.
That Ranger fireballer Yu Darvish is mowing down opponents like a landscaping business requires no regression. The Japanese import whiffed 221 in 192 innings last year. He's blowing them away at an even higher rate this year, but it's his consistency that's so noteworthy. In 33 lifetime starts, Darvish has fanned 10 or more one-third of the time.
It's been a painful start for another Far Eastern product, Reds outfielder Shin-soo Choo, but it could get him into the record books. Choo has thrust out an elbow, pointed a thigh, leaned in a sleeve and turned a back to seven hit-by-pitches in just 77 plate appearances. At this rate, a full season of visits to the batters box will obliterate the single season record of 51 HBPs, which has stood for 115 years.
Of course, "at this rate" may be the three dumbest words in the baseball lexicon, just ahead of "good RBI guy." It's still so early that Matt Cain doesn't yet have a win. Let's wait until Craig Kimbrell allows a run -- say June -- before we put any stock in the numbers.
And Cardinal first baseman Matt Adams is the greatest masher in history. His .524/.565/1.048 slash stats represent seven games of near invincibility. His 23 plate appearances have produced two walks and 11 hits -- three homers, two doubles and six singles. His 1.613 OPS is more than triple the league average.
Justin Upton leads the majors with nine bombs. Upton didn't smack his ninth last season until August, more than 100 games into the season. His .820 slugging percentage with Atlanta nearly doubles last year's work with Arizona. If you average out the Uptons, by adding in the struggles of Justin's older brother and outfield-mate BJ, you get a less Ruthian .235/.314/.568. I suspect the Uptons would cotton to an .882 OPS in 2013; they'd just like it distributed more evenly.
How about Mr. Vottomatic, Cincinatti's Joey Votto? There's nothing flukey about Votto pacing the majors in walks, but 24 free passes in 80 plate appearances is a bit rich for a guy with just one home run. Votto's on base average of .500 dwarfs his pedestrian .377 slugging average. Most players with upside-down OBP-SLG numbers are Slappy McSpeedster types, not MVP candidates.
Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis is a hero or zero kind of guy. Last season he helped the surprising Orioles by blasting 33 jacks, but otherwise fanned 169 times with just 37 walks, a nearly 5-1 ratio. He's improved on both in 15 games so far this year -- 13 Ks and nine BBs -- en route to the AL lead in homers, RBIs and OPS.
With 21 RBI in 16 games, journeyman backstop John Buck leads the majors, despite playing his home games in the offense-suppressant Citi Field surrounded by a lineup of Justin Turner, David Murphy and Ike Davis (and, to be fair, David Wright). Buck brought home 41 runs in seven times as many 2012 plate appearances.
But if power is your thing, Oakland's Coco Crisp is your guy. With five home runs, seven doubles and a triple in just 58 at bats, Crisp leads MLB in extra base hits. That's an extra base hit every 4.5 at bats. In his previous 4400 major league at bats, Crisp crushed 378 extra base hits, about once every 11.5 at bats. Can you say "regression?"
Kurt Suzuki can. The Nationals' catcher entered today's tilt against the Mets at a handsome .321/.444/.714. An oh-fer day left him at .281/.366/.625. Still attractive, but hardly photo-worthy. Two more days like that and he'll be right around his career numbers of .256/.313/.383.
That Ranger fireballer Yu Darvish is mowing down opponents like a landscaping business requires no regression. The Japanese import whiffed 221 in 192 innings last year. He's blowing them away at an even higher rate this year, but it's his consistency that's so noteworthy. In 33 lifetime starts, Darvish has fanned 10 or more one-third of the time.
It's been a painful start for another Far Eastern product, Reds outfielder Shin-soo Choo, but it could get him into the record books. Choo has thrust out an elbow, pointed a thigh, leaned in a sleeve and turned a back to seven hit-by-pitches in just 77 plate appearances. At this rate, a full season of visits to the batters box will obliterate the single season record of 51 HBPs, which has stood for 115 years.
Of course, "at this rate" may be the three dumbest words in the baseball lexicon, just ahead of "good RBI guy." It's still so early that Matt Cain doesn't yet have a win. Let's wait until Craig Kimbrell allows a run -- say June -- before we put any stock in the numbers.
13 April 2013
How Great Is Mariano Rivera?
New analytic tools have led us to understand baseball better and in new ways. They have magnified the under-appreciated and shined light on the game's nuances. They have helped clubs work more efficiently and provided their early adapters with an edge on the competition.
But they have largely failed one area of the game. And that area's name is Mariano Rivera.
There doesn't seem to be any debate today that Rivera is the greatest reliever of all time. He's the all-time saves leader and possesses the lowest ERA relative to the league ever. He's allowed the fewest baserunners per inning in history. He's been well-nigh unhittable in 96 post-season games. He's spun one pitch into 19 dominant seasons. His worst season, at age 37, was merely excellent.
And yet, the analytic tools don't believe he's a Hall of Famer.
When applied to closers, new analysis asks the following question: where ya been? Appearing for just three outs every other day limits the value of a closer, according to Wins Against Replacement and its ilk, even when his work comes in high-leverage situations. Despite pitching into his 40s, Rivera has just 1200 frames under his belt -- about seven good seasons for a starter. The result is that he has accumulated just 54 wins against replacement, well below the standard for a Hall of Fame pitcher. WAR (or WARP) matters because it's the statistic that comes closest to describing a player's overall value in a single number.
That 54 is from Baseball-Reference, which is the most credible of the three main Sabermetric sites with regard to relievers. Baseball Prospectus pegs it at 31.4 while Fangraphs is at the median of 38.7. The discrepancy has much to do with whether the measurements use underlying data as the true level of performance; i.e., whether Rivera is given the credit (as he should be) for a career-long outlier BABIP or whether that's dismissed as luck.
By comparison, Fangraphs credits Mark Buehrle with 45.7 wins against replacement.
The problem, of course, is that comparing a closer to a starter because they're both pitchers is like comparing the ACLU to the Teamsters because they're both unions.
Misused and under-utilized though they are, closers can still be fairly analyzed by comparing them to each other. That limits the sample more or less to Rivera's contemporaries, but that should be enough, given his dominance.
Rivera's lifetime ERA+ of 205 is about half-again beyond the next best closer in history, Trevor Hoffman. He has the lowest walk rate, by far the highest strikeout rate, by far the fewest blown saves and nearly double the Win Probability Added of any short reliever in history.
ERA+ measures a pitcher's ERA relative to the league at the time. Rivera has limited opponents to 2.22 earned runs per nine innings at a time when the American League is scoring 4.55 against non-Rivera pitchers.
The bottom line is that this is a SABR problem, not a Sandman problem. Clearly, WAR (or WARP) is not designed to handle closers, or at least to compare them to starters. Whatever number of wins Rivera allegedly added to the Yankees with his bat-breaking contributions, they are not being reflected in the sabermetric record.
But they have largely failed one area of the game. And that area's name is Mariano Rivera.
There doesn't seem to be any debate today that Rivera is the greatest reliever of all time. He's the all-time saves leader and possesses the lowest ERA relative to the league ever. He's allowed the fewest baserunners per inning in history. He's been well-nigh unhittable in 96 post-season games. He's spun one pitch into 19 dominant seasons. His worst season, at age 37, was merely excellent.
And yet, the analytic tools don't believe he's a Hall of Famer.
When applied to closers, new analysis asks the following question: where ya been? Appearing for just three outs every other day limits the value of a closer, according to Wins Against Replacement and its ilk, even when his work comes in high-leverage situations. Despite pitching into his 40s, Rivera has just 1200 frames under his belt -- about seven good seasons for a starter. The result is that he has accumulated just 54 wins against replacement, well below the standard for a Hall of Fame pitcher. WAR (or WARP) matters because it's the statistic that comes closest to describing a player's overall value in a single number.
That 54 is from Baseball-Reference, which is the most credible of the three main Sabermetric sites with regard to relievers. Baseball Prospectus pegs it at 31.4 while Fangraphs is at the median of 38.7. The discrepancy has much to do with whether the measurements use underlying data as the true level of performance; i.e., whether Rivera is given the credit (as he should be) for a career-long outlier BABIP or whether that's dismissed as luck.
By comparison, Fangraphs credits Mark Buehrle with 45.7 wins against replacement.
The problem, of course, is that comparing a closer to a starter because they're both pitchers is like comparing the ACLU to the Teamsters because they're both unions.
Misused and under-utilized though they are, closers can still be fairly analyzed by comparing them to each other. That limits the sample more or less to Rivera's contemporaries, but that should be enough, given his dominance.
Rivera's lifetime ERA+ of 205 is about half-again beyond the next best closer in history, Trevor Hoffman. He has the lowest walk rate, by far the highest strikeout rate, by far the fewest blown saves and nearly double the Win Probability Added of any short reliever in history.
ERA+ measures a pitcher's ERA relative to the league at the time. Rivera has limited opponents to 2.22 earned runs per nine innings at a time when the American League is scoring 4.55 against non-Rivera pitchers.
The bottom line is that this is a SABR problem, not a Sandman problem. Clearly, WAR (or WARP) is not designed to handle closers, or at least to compare them to starters. Whatever number of wins Rivera allegedly added to the Yankees with his bat-breaking contributions, they are not being reflected in the sabermetric record.
07 April 2013
WAR on Fox! WAR on Fox!
Mark down this date: April 6, 2013.
That's the date that Fox's baseball coverage included discussions of OPS and WAR. Hallelujah!
Joe Buck introduced both notions without snark or derision. He explained the acronyms (On-base Plus Slugging and Wins Against Replacement) and discussed how they are calculated.
In the first discussion, Buck demurred a bit, noting that OPS is hard to calculate. But Fox inserted Ken Rosenthal into the discussion to explain that sabermetricans and front offices prefer OPS to batting average and home runs. Fox may have been setting the stage for using OBP stats in the future by having Rosenthal aver that on base percentage is more meaningful than batting average.
This is a true advance. But Fox wasn't done.
With Miguel Cabrera at the plate, Buck introduced the viewer to WAR. He explained how -- and why! -- Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera earned just the fourth highest WAR in MLB last year.
Supported by a Fox graphic listing the top four WARriors in 2012, Buck explained how Cabrera would fare less well because he's only an offensive force. He noted that Mike Trout, first by far on that list with nearly 11 wins against replacement, runs the bases and plays defense.
It's truly a watershed when a major TV network intransigent in its opposition to advanced metrics finally acknowledges that there is a better alternative to batting average and home runs. Kudos to Fox for accepting what has been proven and helping educate average fans.
The next giant leap will occur when Rosenthal explains on air to Buck the other key element of WAR. The three players ahead of Cabrera on the WAR list are center fielder Trout, second baseman Robinson Cano and catcher Buster Posey. Each plays a more difficult position and is being compared to weaker hitters than a third baseman, if that's what you want to call Cabrera.
And the battle will finally be won when they both explain it to the satisfaction of Tim McCarver.
That's the date that Fox's baseball coverage included discussions of OPS and WAR. Hallelujah!
Joe Buck introduced both notions without snark or derision. He explained the acronyms (On-base Plus Slugging and Wins Against Replacement) and discussed how they are calculated.
In the first discussion, Buck demurred a bit, noting that OPS is hard to calculate. But Fox inserted Ken Rosenthal into the discussion to explain that sabermetricans and front offices prefer OPS to batting average and home runs. Fox may have been setting the stage for using OBP stats in the future by having Rosenthal aver that on base percentage is more meaningful than batting average.
This is a true advance. But Fox wasn't done.
With Miguel Cabrera at the plate, Buck introduced the viewer to WAR. He explained how -- and why! -- Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera earned just the fourth highest WAR in MLB last year.
Supported by a Fox graphic listing the top four WARriors in 2012, Buck explained how Cabrera would fare less well because he's only an offensive force. He noted that Mike Trout, first by far on that list with nearly 11 wins against replacement, runs the bases and plays defense.
It's truly a watershed when a major TV network intransigent in its opposition to advanced metrics finally acknowledges that there is a better alternative to batting average and home runs. Kudos to Fox for accepting what has been proven and helping educate average fans.
The next giant leap will occur when Rosenthal explains on air to Buck the other key element of WAR. The three players ahead of Cabrera on the WAR list are center fielder Trout, second baseman Robinson Cano and catcher Buster Posey. Each plays a more difficult position and is being compared to weaker hitters than a third baseman, if that's what you want to call Cabrera.
And the battle will finally be won when they both explain it to the satisfaction of Tim McCarver.
05 April 2013
A Successful Debut
Associated Press: Mariano Rivera made a successful debut as the Yankees defeated Boston 4-2.
Real Life: Rivera entered the game with a three-run lead. He relinquished a run on a walk and a double before retiring the side. For those of you scoring at home, Red Sox batters hit .250/.400/.500 against him and saddled him with an ERA of 9.00.
But he "earned" a save, so it must have been successful. At least according to dinosaurs like the Association Press.
Thirty-four years and counting.
Real Life: Rivera entered the game with a three-run lead. He relinquished a run on a walk and a double before retiring the side. For those of you scoring at home, Red Sox batters hit .250/.400/.500 against him and saddled him with an ERA of 9.00.
But he "earned" a save, so it must have been successful. At least according to dinosaurs like the Association Press.
Thirty-four years and counting.
04 April 2013
Adventures in Scheduling
Twenty-four thousand souls filled half of Target Field today to witness the Twins' 8-2 whipping of Detroit. The five-run eighth that blew open the game, indeed the final score, will be lost to history as Minnesota drifts into the cellar and Detroit to the top of the AL Central standings.
Witnesses to this event are likely to remember little of the contest but this -- the weather. It was another raw, windy, miserable early-April day in Minneapolis more conducive to sleigh riding than to the Boys of Summer. And yet it counted in the standings.
This scene is being played out across the Northeast and Midwest in places like Chicago and New York and Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. And while Mark Twain's lament about weather discussions being all talk and no action was facetious, a real American today has the right to a serious complaint about MLB's weather-related actions.
Consider this: Road teams this week included Miami, San Diego, Houston and Los Angeles, where Spring is fully sprung and ready for action. How hard would it be to rejigger the schedule so most early- and mid-April (and late September) games occur in warm weather? It would mean the Indians and Rockies and their ilk would wait until late April for their home opener, but they would avoid snow-outs and home field shivering. It would also mean fewer summertime games in the Dallas sauna, the Phoenix microwave and the San Francisco refrigerator.
Assembling a schedule among 30 businesses is a massive juggling act, particularly with all the other considerations, like avoiding dueling home games by teams that share markets. But wouldn't MLB like to have comfortable customers filling the other half of their stadiums?
Witnesses to this event are likely to remember little of the contest but this -- the weather. It was another raw, windy, miserable early-April day in Minneapolis more conducive to sleigh riding than to the Boys of Summer. And yet it counted in the standings.
This scene is being played out across the Northeast and Midwest in places like Chicago and New York and Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. And while Mark Twain's lament about weather discussions being all talk and no action was facetious, a real American today has the right to a serious complaint about MLB's weather-related actions.
Consider this: Road teams this week included Miami, San Diego, Houston and Los Angeles, where Spring is fully sprung and ready for action. How hard would it be to rejigger the schedule so most early- and mid-April (and late September) games occur in warm weather? It would mean the Indians and Rockies and their ilk would wait until late April for their home opener, but they would avoid snow-outs and home field shivering. It would also mean fewer summertime games in the Dallas sauna, the Phoenix microwave and the San Francisco refrigerator.
Assembling a schedule among 30 businesses is a massive juggling act, particularly with all the other considerations, like avoiding dueling home games by teams that share markets. But wouldn't MLB like to have comfortable customers filling the other half of their stadiums?
01 April 2013
Just As We Drew It Up
First, the 108-loss Astros beat Nolan Ryan in his home park. How perfect is that?
Then, the Red Sox thrash the Yankee understudies and their ace in The Bronx, with contributions from Gamecock Jackie Bradley, Jr. A victory for the Lesser of Two Evils.
Finally, my Nats ride a pair of blasts from The Future and seven shutout innings from Stephen Strasburg for an Opening Day win closed by Rafael Soriano.
Oh how I have suffered lo these many years. Dear God of Baseball, may this be my deliverance.
Then, the Red Sox thrash the Yankee understudies and their ace in The Bronx, with contributions from Gamecock Jackie Bradley, Jr. A victory for the Lesser of Two Evils.
Finally, my Nats ride a pair of blasts from The Future and seven shutout innings from Stephen Strasburg for an Opening Day win closed by Rafael Soriano.
Oh how I have suffered lo these many years. Dear God of Baseball, may this be my deliverance.
30 March 2013
Predictions Guaranteed or Your Money Back
On a major sports radio show today the hosts filled two of the short segments that interrupt the endless flow of commercials, promotions and public service announcements with a discussion of the 2013 MLB season.
Specifically, they offered their predictions about division winners and Wild Card participants, earnestly and authoritatively, with scant acknowledgment that they might as well have been predicting the weather in Wilkes-Barre six Tuesdays from now.
The programming break concluded and the network returned to its regularly-scheduled ads before eventually meandering back through another reading of yesterday's scores to the hosts, who would have had time to shower, shave, compete in a bocce tournament and call home in the interim. They then preceded to predict playoff winners right up to the World Series.
Listeners realize intuitively that this is all just for fun, that the hosts have to talk about something to fill literally 24 hours of each day with sports, and that no one is taking these predictions seriously. On the other hand, playoff results in baseball are a coin-flip the day before they start, even if you know who's squaring off and under what conditions. Discussing playoff outcomes in March has every bit the validity of guessing the number of stars in the universe.
Moreover, people with a mere glancing knowledge of baseball, which describes most all sports talk hosts, tend to predict last year's results. Their bold prognostications included the Nationals, Braves, Reds, Giants and Dodgers in the NL. Hey, what a coincidence: four of those five made last year's post-season and the other emptied its piggy bank on imported talent.
Let's instead recognize that part of baseball's beauty is its rampant unpredictability, a function of tomorrow's starting pitcher and winning percentages that rarely top 62% or fall below 38%, not withstanding this year's Astros.
In that vein, here are some real predictions, real in the sense that they will actually come to pass.
1. A team currently lost in the weeds will shock us slowly over 162 games and bust your playoff prediction bubble.
2. The credit for their advance will be spread wide, mostly in the cracks and crevices that are hard to discern, like relief pitching, bench play and luck. The sports media, unable to see how small improvements add up to a better team, will pronounce teamwork, a great clubhouse and a motivating manager responsible, primarily because there's no way to dispute empty claims.
3. One of the big-name teams will crash and burn. Probably your team.
4. Reports of the Yankees' demise are greatly exaggerated. They will make the playoffs and the universe will remain in stasis.
5. Another hotshot young Royals phenom will fail to fulfill his potential and the universe will remain in stasis.
6. Some team will finish exactly where everyone thinks they will, except their three best players will scuffle while three guys you never heard of will carry the team. In other words, we'll get everything wrong about them except their place in the standings.
7. By roughly game 40, some batter will have already socked more homers than he's ever produced in a single season en route to a break-out performance.
8. By roughly game 40, some pitcher will have already scored more wins and quality starts than he's ever produced in a single season en route to a break-out performance.
9. A pitcher like Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren or Ervin Santana will struggle to get outs again in '13 and we'll realize he didn't have an off-year in 2012; his career is in decline.
10. An everyday player will suddenly improve his on-base skills, power, base-stealing and defense, and we'll all assume he's juicing. Because that never happened before there were steroids.
11. Vin Scully will announce Dodger games for the 73rd consecutive year and the universe will remain in stasis. The Dodgers are a contender this year, so there's a chance that Scully will raise his voice at some point.
12. A third-rate outfit like the Indians or Padres will burst from the gate and electrify their fans before folding like origami and losing 89 games.
13. Attendance in Miami will drop below the Mendoza line for a rainy Wednesday night game against the Brewers. Or Rockies.
14. One of the teams that signed Justin Verlander, Buster Posey, Adam Wainwright, Rafael Soriano or Allen Craig to a rich, long-term deal will regret their decision and you'll shake your head at the team's stupidity even though all five contracts made sense at the time.
15. By April 3 at the very latest, John Sterling will grate on your nerves with his contrived braying at Yankee home runs.
16. On May 17, NBC News will declare Houston the loser in the AL West race.
17. On the last day of the season, the sudden-death game pitting two teams tied for the final Wild Card spot will draw lower ratings than an exhibition NFL re-run from 2004.
18. A giant sinkhole could open up beneath Busch Stadium but the St. Louis Cardinals will still compete this year because that's what they do every year. With Albert Pujols bolted and Chris Carpenter's cooked and Tony LaRussa retired and Stan Musial gone the Cards will still be in the mix.
19. And the Cubs won't be. Again.
20. Bold prediction: Miguel Cabrera will bat .300+ with 30+ home runs. There, I said it.
21. Baseball and I will renew our vows. We have never stopped loving each other.
Specifically, they offered their predictions about division winners and Wild Card participants, earnestly and authoritatively, with scant acknowledgment that they might as well have been predicting the weather in Wilkes-Barre six Tuesdays from now.
The programming break concluded and the network returned to its regularly-scheduled ads before eventually meandering back through another reading of yesterday's scores to the hosts, who would have had time to shower, shave, compete in a bocce tournament and call home in the interim. They then preceded to predict playoff winners right up to the World Series.
Listeners realize intuitively that this is all just for fun, that the hosts have to talk about something to fill literally 24 hours of each day with sports, and that no one is taking these predictions seriously. On the other hand, playoff results in baseball are a coin-flip the day before they start, even if you know who's squaring off and under what conditions. Discussing playoff outcomes in March has every bit the validity of guessing the number of stars in the universe.
Moreover, people with a mere glancing knowledge of baseball, which describes most all sports talk hosts, tend to predict last year's results. Their bold prognostications included the Nationals, Braves, Reds, Giants and Dodgers in the NL. Hey, what a coincidence: four of those five made last year's post-season and the other emptied its piggy bank on imported talent.
Let's instead recognize that part of baseball's beauty is its rampant unpredictability, a function of tomorrow's starting pitcher and winning percentages that rarely top 62% or fall below 38%, not withstanding this year's Astros.
In that vein, here are some real predictions, real in the sense that they will actually come to pass.
1. A team currently lost in the weeds will shock us slowly over 162 games and bust your playoff prediction bubble.
2. The credit for their advance will be spread wide, mostly in the cracks and crevices that are hard to discern, like relief pitching, bench play and luck. The sports media, unable to see how small improvements add up to a better team, will pronounce teamwork, a great clubhouse and a motivating manager responsible, primarily because there's no way to dispute empty claims.
3. One of the big-name teams will crash and burn. Probably your team.
4. Reports of the Yankees' demise are greatly exaggerated. They will make the playoffs and the universe will remain in stasis.
5. Another hotshot young Royals phenom will fail to fulfill his potential and the universe will remain in stasis.
6. Some team will finish exactly where everyone thinks they will, except their three best players will scuffle while three guys you never heard of will carry the team. In other words, we'll get everything wrong about them except their place in the standings.
7. By roughly game 40, some batter will have already socked more homers than he's ever produced in a single season en route to a break-out performance.
8. By roughly game 40, some pitcher will have already scored more wins and quality starts than he's ever produced in a single season en route to a break-out performance.
9. A pitcher like Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren or Ervin Santana will struggle to get outs again in '13 and we'll realize he didn't have an off-year in 2012; his career is in decline.
10. An everyday player will suddenly improve his on-base skills, power, base-stealing and defense, and we'll all assume he's juicing. Because that never happened before there were steroids.
11. Vin Scully will announce Dodger games for the 73rd consecutive year and the universe will remain in stasis. The Dodgers are a contender this year, so there's a chance that Scully will raise his voice at some point.
12. A third-rate outfit like the Indians or Padres will burst from the gate and electrify their fans before folding like origami and losing 89 games.
13. Attendance in Miami will drop below the Mendoza line for a rainy Wednesday night game against the Brewers. Or Rockies.
14. One of the teams that signed Justin Verlander, Buster Posey, Adam Wainwright, Rafael Soriano or Allen Craig to a rich, long-term deal will regret their decision and you'll shake your head at the team's stupidity even though all five contracts made sense at the time.
15. By April 3 at the very latest, John Sterling will grate on your nerves with his contrived braying at Yankee home runs.
16. On May 17, NBC News will declare Houston the loser in the AL West race.
17. On the last day of the season, the sudden-death game pitting two teams tied for the final Wild Card spot will draw lower ratings than an exhibition NFL re-run from 2004.
18. A giant sinkhole could open up beneath Busch Stadium but the St. Louis Cardinals will still compete this year because that's what they do every year. With Albert Pujols bolted and Chris Carpenter's cooked and Tony LaRussa retired and Stan Musial gone the Cards will still be in the mix.
19. And the Cubs won't be. Again.
20. Bold prediction: Miguel Cabrera will bat .300+ with 30+ home runs. There, I said it.
21. Baseball and I will renew our vows. We have never stopped loving each other.
29 March 2013
A Bunch of Lohsers
Here's my theory: Milwaukee Brewer management is so enamored with its crackling-smart win-now strategy of 2011 -- during which they leveraged acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum for the last year of Prince Fielder's tenure in Wisconsin to a division title -- that they decided to reprise the approach this year.
That would explain why they've paid $33 million and their top draft pick for three years of 34-year-old flash-in-the-pan Kyle Lohse. If Lohse is a number two starter, as his contract suggests, then I'm a number two pencil.
Last year, Lohse pitched the most innings, won the most games, lost the fewest, struck out the most, had the most quality starts, the best K/BB rate, the lowest WHIP and by far the lowest ERA of his journeyman career. After 10 seasons of 88-98, 4.80, Lohse has responded to Dave Duncan's tutelage in St. Louis for a pair of 30-11, 3.10 seasons.
So he's a new pitcher, right? Yeah, not so much. Lady luck has escorted the California righty the last two years, and left him in the care of good Cardinal defense when she's been unavailable. Whether she returns for a third year is up to her, and no one ever accused Milwaukee's fielding of aptitude.
Moreover, and sadly for the team's faithful, it's not 2011 anymore. Fielder, Greinke and Marcum are gone and the Brewers are making a beeline for the basement in the NL Central. Even if Lohse's second act continues, and that's not the way to bet, he might catapult them to .500 in 2013. But he'll cost them in future years, because signing a free agent offered a deal by his incumbent team costs a first-round pick, something the Brews' barren system could little afford to sacrifice.
A lot of mediocre teams are acting as if there are eight extra Wild Cards instead of one and flipping the future for a very uncertain present. It's going to work for someone someday and maybe this is the Brewers' year. But probably not, and Lohse's signing reduces the odds that the next few will be their years either.
That would explain why they've paid $33 million and their top draft pick for three years of 34-year-old flash-in-the-pan Kyle Lohse. If Lohse is a number two starter, as his contract suggests, then I'm a number two pencil.
Last year, Lohse pitched the most innings, won the most games, lost the fewest, struck out the most, had the most quality starts, the best K/BB rate, the lowest WHIP and by far the lowest ERA of his journeyman career. After 10 seasons of 88-98, 4.80, Lohse has responded to Dave Duncan's tutelage in St. Louis for a pair of 30-11, 3.10 seasons.
So he's a new pitcher, right? Yeah, not so much. Lady luck has escorted the California righty the last two years, and left him in the care of good Cardinal defense when she's been unavailable. Whether she returns for a third year is up to her, and no one ever accused Milwaukee's fielding of aptitude.
Moreover, and sadly for the team's faithful, it's not 2011 anymore. Fielder, Greinke and Marcum are gone and the Brewers are making a beeline for the basement in the NL Central. Even if Lohse's second act continues, and that's not the way to bet, he might catapult them to .500 in 2013. But he'll cost them in future years, because signing a free agent offered a deal by his incumbent team costs a first-round pick, something the Brews' barren system could little afford to sacrifice.
A lot of mediocre teams are acting as if there are eight extra Wild Cards instead of one and flipping the future for a very uncertain present. It's going to work for someone someday and maybe this is the Brewers' year. But probably not, and Lohse's signing reduces the odds that the next few will be their years either.
23 March 2013
Peeking In the Record Book
Twenty-thirteen could be a big year for Jim Thome, if he manages to make an MLB team and get in games. With 50 more strikeouts, Thome will become the sport's all-time Whiffer King, passing Reggie Jackson with 2,598 futilities.
Bobby Abreu also has his sights set on posterity. If the 38-year-old outfielder can get into 59 games this season, he'll move into the Top 10 for games played without a World Series appearance, with 2,406. (Fittingly, Rafael Palmeiro is first with 2,831.)
Sadly, Thome and Abreu have entered involuntary retirement mode. The Twins have allegedly kicked Thome's tires and found him wanting at 42, while the Orioles have suggested they might bring in Abreu if the alternatives gag them in Spring Training.
But there are others who can look up the history's ledger and see opportunities to climb into the top reaches. Alex Rodriguez, for example, is seventh of the home run list, but can pass Willie Mays for fourth with just 14 more jacks. He's also within 99 hits of 3,000 and 47 RBIs of fourth place (passing Barry Bonds). The price for all that is five more Ks, which would move him ahead of Sammy Sosa (2036) to third all-time. But there's good news in that regard. Adam Dunn, a much more prolific fanning machine, sits just one strikeout behind ARod and figures to play fulltime for the White Sox, who owe him $30 mil over the next two years.
His teammate is 12 hits from 10th place on the all-time list. Where Derek Jeter has an advantage is that last year's injury -- a broken ankle -- isn't keeping him off the field in 2013. ARod could be out all season with his hip woes, and will almost certainly miss most of the first half. With 132 more safeties Jeter clips Cap Anson for sixth place, after accumulating 216 last year. Jeter can also move up to 15th on the strikeout list ahead of Manny Ramirez with 70 more strike-threes. He fanned 90 times last year.
Albert Pujols is starting to introduce himself to the record books. With 25 more dingers, he becomes the 26th member of the 500 Club. Another five puts him in the top 25, ahead of Eddie Murray.
On the hill, Mariano Rivera's next save breaks the all-time save record of 608, currently held by Mariano Rivera. Aside from Trevor Hoffman's 601, Rivera is already 130 saves ahead of anyone else, pending his last season in 2013. With 31 more saves, Jason Isringhausen can move into 11th place with 331. Joe Nathan is two behind Izzy.
Andy Pettitte leads all MLB pitchers in career wins with 245, good for 51st in history. Two more cracks the top 50 and 15 more gets him to 41st place. Roy Halladay leads active pitchers in finishing what he started with 66 complete games, nearly twice as many as second-place CC Sabatha (35). That slots him in at 644th on the all time list, just 683 behind Cy Young.
Some other active players will move up the hierarchy in their particular specialties. Todd Helton is four doubles from the top 20. Carl Crawford cracks the top 100 with four more triples, and gets to 49th in stolen bases with 24 more thefts. Ichiro, now at 51st in steals, gets to 41st with 30 more. Juan Pierre, now 19th all-time, needs 32 to swipe 15th place from Kenny Lofton, with 623.
Finally, there is the fine work of Paul Konerko, who can pass Frank Robinson for 20th all-time by grounding into eight more double plays. Don't laugh: 12 of the ballers in front of him are Hall of Famers. Nonetheless, he's probably more focused on the 78 home runs he needs for 500. At 37, and with 96 in his last three seasons, it seems likely. Go Paulie.
18 March 2013
Getting Hosed: A Short Hoops Interval
When the NCAA men's basketball brackets were first revealed on CBS last night, Oregon's shocking 12 seed jumped off the screen. A top 25 team, the Ducks were among the Pac-13's (or whatever number it is now) elite and swept the league tournament, defeating UCLA, a team given a six seed, in its home city.
Analyst Doug Gotlieb, a former Oklahoma State star and current college hoops savant, jumped down the throat of the selection committee chair, bluntly demanding an explanation (which he didn't get.)
March madness, indeed! In a rational universe, Oregon almost certainly merits an eight seed, maybe a nine. Dropping them four lines means the NCAA sachems rated them 16 teams lower than the rest of America did. The irony is that the committee did the Ducks a favor. The eight-nine line is the tournament death star because the winner draws a nearly unbeatable #1 seed everytime.
As I've documented before, there's virtually no difference between a six seed and a seven, eight, nine, or even a 10 or 11. Everyone from six to 11 is talented but flawed and it doesn't take a lot going right for an 11 or wrong for a six, to produce an upset, as we've seen repeatedly in the tournament.
This line of reasoning fails at the top of the bracket. There are discernible gaps between the top seeds and teams just a little bit lower.
What this adds up to is: an eight seed has no advantage whatsoever in the first round and a giant hill to climb in the second. A 12 seed is just slightly less likely to survive the first round but significantly more likely to defeat a four-seed -- or the 13 -- in the second round.
I assume the Oregon coach is smart enough to zip his team's lips publicly but to deal the disrespect card privately every chance he gets.
Which means the team that really got hosed was Oklahoma State, a fifth seed with a win-or-go-home first-round contest against an angry #8 in the 12 spot.
Analyst Doug Gotlieb, a former Oklahoma State star and current college hoops savant, jumped down the throat of the selection committee chair, bluntly demanding an explanation (which he didn't get.)
March madness, indeed! In a rational universe, Oregon almost certainly merits an eight seed, maybe a nine. Dropping them four lines means the NCAA sachems rated them 16 teams lower than the rest of America did. The irony is that the committee did the Ducks a favor. The eight-nine line is the tournament death star because the winner draws a nearly unbeatable #1 seed everytime.
As I've documented before, there's virtually no difference between a six seed and a seven, eight, nine, or even a 10 or 11. Everyone from six to 11 is talented but flawed and it doesn't take a lot going right for an 11 or wrong for a six, to produce an upset, as we've seen repeatedly in the tournament.
This line of reasoning fails at the top of the bracket. There are discernible gaps between the top seeds and teams just a little bit lower.
What this adds up to is: an eight seed has no advantage whatsoever in the first round and a giant hill to climb in the second. A 12 seed is just slightly less likely to survive the first round but significantly more likely to defeat a four-seed -- or the 13 -- in the second round.
I assume the Oregon coach is smart enough to zip his team's lips publicly but to deal the disrespect card privately every chance he gets.
Which means the team that really got hosed was Oklahoma State, a fifth seed with a win-or-go-home first-round contest against an angry #8 in the 12 spot.
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