When the NCAA men's basketball brackets were first revealed on CBS last night, Oregon's shocking 12 seed jumped off the screen. A top 25 team, the Ducks were among the Pac-13's (or whatever number it is now) elite and swept the league tournament, defeating UCLA, a team given a six seed, in its home city.
Analyst Doug Gotlieb, a former Oklahoma State star and current college hoops savant, jumped down the throat of the selection committee chair, bluntly demanding an explanation (which he didn't get.)
March madness, indeed! In a rational universe, Oregon almost certainly merits an eight seed, maybe a nine. Dropping them four lines means the NCAA sachems rated them 16 teams lower than the rest of America did. The irony is that the committee did the Ducks a favor. The eight-nine line is the tournament death star because the winner draws a nearly unbeatable #1 seed everytime.
As I've documented before, there's virtually no difference between a six seed and a seven, eight, nine, or even a 10 or 11. Everyone from six to 11 is talented but flawed and it doesn't take a lot going right for an 11 or wrong for a six, to produce an upset, as we've seen repeatedly in the tournament.
This line of reasoning fails at the top of the bracket. There are discernible gaps between the top seeds and teams just a little bit lower.
What this adds up to is: an eight seed has no advantage whatsoever in the first round and a giant hill to climb in the second. A 12 seed is just slightly less likely to survive the first round but significantly more likely to defeat a four-seed -- or the 13 -- in the second round.
I assume the Oregon coach is smart enough to zip his team's lips publicly but to deal the disrespect card privately every chance he gets.
Which means the team that really got hosed was Oklahoma State, a fifth seed with a win-or-go-home first-round contest against an angry #8 in the 12 spot.
Showing posts with label #8 seed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #8 seed. Show all posts
18 March 2013
14 March 2010
A Bad Seed
The Texas Longhorns raced off to a 17-0 record and a #1 ranking as the calendar changed on this NCAA basketball season. The Horns have stumbled to a 7-9 record since, fallen out of the Top 25 and succumbed by 30 points to Baylor in their league tournament. So you might have been disappointed that they were "rewarded" with the #8 seed in the East region.
In fact, the selection committee has punished Texas severely and appropriately. Here's the dirty little secret of the NCAA tournament: The #8 seed is the worst seeding in the bracket. (Followed, for the same reasons, by #9.) The Horns' prospects would be better with a seed as low as 11.
There's virtually no difference in quality between teams seeded 7-10 and only a little distance between the six line and the 11. Every team in the middle of the field is good, but flawed. Every one of them can be beaten. So it doesn't matter whether UT plays the nine-seed -- in this case an equally desultory Wake Forest -- or the six-seed -- in this case Marquette. Either opponent is roughly equal in ability to them.
Between the first and the third seeds, however, lies a chasm. Those are the second round foes facing the winners of the 8-9 and 6-11 games. Should Texas prevail, they have an almost insurmountable second-round match-up with that monster called Kentucky. Should #11 Washington bump off Milwaukee's finest , they have an eminently winnable game against #3-seed New Mexico.
#9 Wake Forest and #6 Marquette are virtually indistinguishable in terms of quality. #1 Kentucky and #3 New Mexico, night and day.
The end result: Texas might win their first-round game, but the Sweet 16 is almost certainly beyond their reach. Amazing for a squad ranked first in the country in January. It's the curse of the #8 seed. If your school is in line for one, root for it to get demoted in the bracket.
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In fact, the selection committee has punished Texas severely and appropriately. Here's the dirty little secret of the NCAA tournament: The #8 seed is the worst seeding in the bracket. (Followed, for the same reasons, by #9.) The Horns' prospects would be better with a seed as low as 11.
There's virtually no difference in quality between teams seeded 7-10 and only a little distance between the six line and the 11. Every team in the middle of the field is good, but flawed. Every one of them can be beaten. So it doesn't matter whether UT plays the nine-seed -- in this case an equally desultory Wake Forest -- or the six-seed -- in this case Marquette. Either opponent is roughly equal in ability to them.
Between the first and the third seeds, however, lies a chasm. Those are the second round foes facing the winners of the 8-9 and 6-11 games. Should Texas prevail, they have an almost insurmountable second-round match-up with that monster called Kentucky. Should #11 Washington bump off Milwaukee's finest , they have an eminently winnable game against #3-seed New Mexico.
#9 Wake Forest and #6 Marquette are virtually indistinguishable in terms of quality. #1 Kentucky and #3 New Mexico, night and day.
The end result: Texas might win their first-round game, but the Sweet 16 is almost certainly beyond their reach. Amazing for a squad ranked first in the country in January. It's the curse of the #8 seed. If your school is in line for one, root for it to get demoted in the bracket.
b
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