09 August 2014

Why Your Team Stinks and Will Win Their Division

Congratulations! You just assumed the helm of a Major League Baseball team. 

Here's the problem: I'm going to saddle you with the following:

You're middle of the pack in runs scored. Really, how many games can your charges win? 

Well, if you're Buck Showalter, the answer is: enough to build the largest division lead in baseball. The Baltimore Orioles are acting like their counterparts in the East Bay -- winning with a patchwork of defense, good health and smart managing. And, of course, a tablespoon of good luck.

Despite the lack of names, the rotation has performed credibly and the bullpen anchors have delivered -- a 1.30 combined ERA for closer Zach Britton and set-up man Darren O'Day. The team leads the league in fielding percentage and the advanced metrics peg their overall defense as above average.

Showalter doesn't have a plethora of options at his disposal, but infielder Steve Pearce has bopped 11 homers in 230 at-bats and outfielder Delmon Young is hitting .316. Back-up catcher Caleb Joseph, spelling Matt Wieters while he misses the rest of the season following elbow surgery, has homered in five consecutive games.

Wieters not withstanding, the Baltimorons have enjoyed the blessings of extraordinary health. Six pitchers have made all but one of the Orioles' starts this year and the three best hitters -- Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz -- have perfect attendance on the season.

The O's are also doing the small things. They're 36-22 in one- and two-run games. They've won 12 of 16 extra-inning games. They don't waste many at-bats on sacrifice bunts and they've lost just 14 runners attempting to steal. The defense has turned 114 double plays, two dozen more than they've hit into. It helps explain why since June, they're 39-22 and haven't lost two straight.  And it doesn't hurt that they're dominating their division rivals in head-to-head matchups.

The million-dollar question is whether the Birds can maintain the pace. While their rivals piled up more bodies at the trade deadline, Dan Duquette added just lefty fireballer Andrew Miller to bolster the pen. And a few late-season injuries can erase all the good fortune. 

But the O's have the easiest remaining schedule in the league and they've been improving as the season has progressed. The last time they held a lead this large, this late, was 1997, when they won 98 games and the AL East.

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