Though I'd hesitate to call it Opening Day, the 2010 MLB season kicks off tonight at Fenway with the Yankees in town. Baseball is hoping to emulate NASCAR, which fires off the season with its biggest race. Given what a miserable anti-climax the World Series has become, it's fitting, if not inspiring.
While most teams ponder the question marks, the two behemoths in battle tonight ponder where first they'll plunder for further talent monopolization. The big question for New York is, at which position will they fail to place an All-Star. (Answer: outfield.) In Boston, there actually are three interesting side stories that may help determine how much of a fight they can muster.
The first two questions are variations on a theme: What of...? Daisuke Matsuzaka and David Ortiz. Daisuke has played in the States for three seasons, and presented to America three different Daisukes. Version 1, the "rookie," was a strikeout machine who logged 200+ innings of 4.40 RA ball. Capital.
2008's Daisuke v.2 was an odd duck. His spectacular 18-3, 3.11 RA line masked many problems. He walked five batters a game and burned himself out by the fifth inning, forcing the deep Bosox pen to bail him out constantly. That they did put a beautiful facade on a structurally unsound foundation, which we saw last year when his arm fell off. Daisuke v.3 was painful: just 12 starts and a 5.76 RA with 10 homers in 60 innings.
All things being equal (which they aren't; how can all things be equal?), Matsuzaka is something between the lucky drunk of 2008 and the (World Baseball Classic-induced?) basket case of 2009. The stathead projection systems, which are taking account of his DL stint to open the season, see him pitching around 150 innings this year with an ERA back around 4.20, good for about two wins a year compared to a fifth starter off the trash heap. That's good third or fourth starter quality.
Two versions of David Ortiz showed up last year, the aging slugger who couldn't hit a pumpkin before the All-Star break and the 27 home runs post-ASB. Undoubtedly, the wrist injury of '08 was part of the equation, but turning 230 pounds into baseball's golden years -- he's 35 this year -- is likely responsible for some of it too. Look for Ortiz to continue to be an asset, but a depreciating one, particularly since he can't play the field.
Which brings us to the epic saga of Mike Lowell. Any other team thanks their lucky stars for a slick-fielding hot cornerman with an .811 OPS and hopes his hip is hippie-dippie in '10. The Sox, they can't afford to hope. So they bring aboard Adrian Beltre, which leaves them with two viable third basemen, three first basemen (Youklis, Lowell and Victor Martinez), two catchers (Martinez and Varitek) and no space to fill at DH. This is a good thing, especially in the AL Beast.
Varitek and Lowell will start the season talking old times on the bench, but they could be significant -- if expensive -- spare parts if injuries strike. Because Terry Francona has so many above-average permutations at his disposal, a sprain here and tear there won't cause much dislocation in the lineup. Don't assume the Red Sox want to trade Lowell just because he's not a first-stringer. Mark my word: he'll get more than half a season's at bats.
The media has done a good job covering Boston management's new-found romance with pitching and defense, but what they're really banking on is depth. With Lowell on the bench and Matsuzaka as the sixth starter (for now), the Sox are 2010's anti-Mets. Let's hope (as we Yankee-despisers are wont to do) that's enough to beat NY's other team.
b
No comments:
Post a Comment