Here's What 33 Homers Can Do For Your Career

Rougned Odor has an extremely entertaining name. The one bequeathed to him by his father makes our noses itch. The one preceding it, bestowed upon him by (presumably) his mother, makes our brain frown. 

What's more, Roogie packs a punch, as Jose Bautista's jaw can attest. So does his bat, which deposited 33 pitches over the outfield fence in 2016, his third MLB season.

Being 23 and smacking 33 homers has great value, particularly when you're a middle infielder. It's so valuable to the Texas Rangers, that they have reportedly signed him to a six-year $49.5 million contract that takes him through all three years of arbitration and a pair of free agent years. (There is also a seventh-year option.)

Odor would have been in line to make a little more than $500,000 this season before becoming eligible for arbitration after the World Series. Keeping up his current level of play, Odor could have been expected to earn about $24 million in arbitration, and then around $16-$20 million/year in free agency. Moving in early earned the Rangers a discount of $7-$15 million, which seems like a reasonable ending point that puts the major risk on the team.

But at 23, Odor may actually have peaked. The Venezuelan doubled his home run quotient despite walking a meager 19 times. His OBP hovered below .300 and his defense suggests he might be a first baseman by mid-career. For all his power and youth, Odor earned just 2 WAR in 2016, which roughly means he's an average starter at his position -- the keystone. None of these bode well for the future. Few players develop a batting eye with experience, but plenty exhibit one anomalous power season. (FWIW, the projection systems have Odor almost exactly where he was in 2016, with a handful fewer home runs and couple more walks.)

It seems like a reasonable deal for both sides, which is why it got done. Second basemen who leave the yard that often are hard to find. Batters who fan 7X as often as they walk are also hard to find -- in the Majors. We'll see which Odor lingers.

Antiques Roadshow In Philadelphia

My wife loves watching Antiques Roadshow, a TV program whose star is stuff. Experts estimate the value of goods carted in by ordinary people, often in the six figure range. The items selected for the small screen are, of course, mostly the outliers highly prized by collectors and others bulging with disposable income.

Often the priceless items in question have little function and no aesthetic value (to me), but are “worth” stacks of large denominations to someone. Their “value” is determined by whatever someone will pay for them.

At the risk of comparing Ryan Howard to a Qing Dynasty vase, and the Philadelphia Phillies to a Saudi prince, the same dynamics seem to be in place in the case of yesterday’s five-year, $125 million contract extension. Already working under a deal that will pay him $19 this year and $20 million next year, Howard’s services at first base have been secured until he’s 37 years old.

Is this a good deal? In one sense, of course. The Phillies will retain one of their stars through his productive playing days. There isn’t a team in baseball that wouldn’t jump at the chance to write a name into their everyday lineup that could reliably deliver 40 dingers and 130 RBI.

In a market sense, no. Ryan Howard, affable though he is, is a one-dimensional star who can’t hit southpaws, gets around the bases like a Yugo, flashes iron in the field and is on course to join the Mo Vaughn Aging Club when he hits his mid-30s. Beasts of his magnitude are often one one-hundredth of a second of reaction time away from DHing for an NL club. By 2015, the Phils are likely to be paying ARod money for David Ortiz, circa 2010. Is there a GM so utterly unhinged as to offer Howard vast riches for five years starting at age 32, when he reaches free agency?

The answer is: yes, there is one. Ruben Amaro, GM of the Phils, and not because he’s suddenly contracted drunken sailor syndrome. Howard has value to Philly beyond his market prospects because he’s part of a core of players who’ve catapulted the club to the championship series two years running and still have an open window of opportunity. Howard’s a Philly icon, a known-quantity, a clubhouse-energizer and a high-character franchise enhancer. Keeping him might be the difference between the World Series and the playoffs, or between the playoffs and a quiet October of leaf-peeping in Vermont. There’s a ton of marginal value there.

Moreover, with a newish ballpark and two pennants flying, the Phils have the cash to ink deals with the rest of the core. This is not the Oakland A’s, for whom every signing represents a tradeoff.

Also worth noting is that human beings are not roulette wheels whose odds of producing desired outcomes are known and unchangeable. Howard improved his conditioning and his defense last year and demonstrated that despite the hale-fellow demeanor, he’s prepared to work for greatness. He’s much more agile afield now, indicating to the Phils that he’s a better bet than some of his comparables.

So the Phillies may have spent too far into the future for success in the next three or four years, but if you’re a fan, you’re reaching for a malt beverage. Just hope the league doesn’t start loading up lefties against your lineup.

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