New Fielding Metrics Say Brian McCann Is a Hall of Famer

Like a butterfly emerging from its chrysalis, the science of analyzing catcher defense is entering a transformative stage. New in-depth research by Baseball Prospectus and others has determined that framing -- the art of employing catcher stance and glove movement to confuse the umpire into calling a strike on a pitch that was actually outside the strike zone -- has an immense impact on the game.

The impact, in fact, goes beyond the balls and strikes in question; research demonstrates that it alters the entire pitcher-batter dynamic. Consequently, framing mavens behind the plate can have significant impact over the course of thousands of pitches in a season.

One-Two-Three-For Dartmouth!
How much impact? Based on complex new calculations derived from video of every single Major League pitch since 1988, Baseball Prospectus asserts that Brad Ausmus added 24 wins over his career with his cunning deception. Other big gainers include Jose Molina, a wretched hitter whose catching prowess gave him 22 wins of value in his career; Yadier Molina, who is even better than we thought; and Jonathan Lucroy, who doubles his career value at this relatively early stage.

But the two backstops whose stock ratchets up most significantly are Russell Martin and Brian McCann. They rank third and fifth among active catchers (information only goes back to 1988, so the readjustment can only be done for recent players) in the number of wins added to their value by the new calculations. What's special about that is that each has demonstrated excellence at the plate as well as behind it and are now both in serious contention for the Hall of Fame, if voters take this information into consideration and further research doesn't debunk or mitigate these findings.

Adding in the new defensive metrics, McCann, 32 and Martin, 33 now rank seventh and ninth all time in WAR for catchers. McCann slots in just behind (though by a wide margin) Yogi Berra, and Martin after Joe Torre, but both surpass Mickey Cochran, Roy Campanella, Roger Bresnahan and others previously enshrined. (Of course, Campy comes with caveats.)

Neither is done, of course, though McCann seems to have lost his defensive powers, Samson-like, with the departure of his facial hair. Each could certainly accrue another 10 career wins, inviting a powerful Hall argument for each.

The Big Loser
Who loses? Former Miami steals-killer Charles Johnson enjoyed a brief burst of fame, but the metrics suggest that was his entire game. Retrospect suggests he was a replacement level player for his career. Worse, the new data shoves Jorge Posada off any foundation his Hall of Fame argument might have rested on. The new accounting says Posada's entire career had all the value of Lucroy's first six years.

Further research is being done every day by dozens of seamheads that will almost certainly tweak these calculations, and the tweaks will be further tweaked and then tweaked again. But their vector probably won't change much, altering our perception of catchers over time.

But Wait, There's One More
There's one more guy who benefits from better information -- the greatest hitting catcher of all time. The knock on Mike Piazza was that he couldn't throw anyone out, and new data about framing and pitch blocking isn't going to change that. But Piazza, it turns out, was a superb blocker and framer, gilding seven career wins onto his already bulging HOF resume.

Don't you feel even sillier for not voting for him now?

Missed It By Tha-a-a-t Much

I've been thinking recently whether Jorge Posada's bronze likeness has a future in Cooperstown and if not, how much more he has to save for the secret decoder ring. 

It's an apt question because while Posada has demonstrated remarkable consistency for a backstop, he can't have many more squats left in him at 39. There are also two strikes against him: 1. The Yankees won't Biggio an albatross just so he can reach a milestone like 300 homers or 1,000 RBIs. 2. The class of surefire Famers with eligibility concurrent to Posada's (and therefore competing with him) will likely be impressive.

But first, the preliminaries. Jorge Posada has been a very good catcher for a long time. Every season since he became a regular in '97 he's been an above-average hitter, substantially so whenever healthy. His lifetime .379/.480 OBP/SLG includes 20-30 home runs and 60-100 walks every year. That's a good-hitting left-fielder; it's commendable out of the squat. The defensive metrics, of which I have always been a little dubious, say he's an above-average catcher even as he approaches grizzledom.

What hurts the switch-hitting Puerto Rican is the lack of a keystone season. Posada has posted three spectacular seasons like 2000's .287/.417/.527 with 28 dingers and 35 doubles, but he's hit .300 just once, knocked in 100 runs just once, never scored 100 and never figured real high in the MVP tally.

Clearly, Posada is not in league with the all-time greats like Bench, Berra, Piazza, Carter, Dickey and Rodriguez. Baseball Prospectus rates him roughly the 12th best ever (not including Joe Mauer, who is already 2/3rds of the way to passing him), just behind Mickey Cochrane and just ahead of Ted Simmons. Cochrane was a no-doubt-about-it selection; Simmons was a Posada-type with a long, productive career lacking a spectacular peak.

One finger tipping the scales in Posada's favor is his affiliation with a dynasty. Because HOF voting is still in the hands of people ordering off the wrong menu, he will get credit for his post-season exploits, which are remarkable mostly for their volume. Regardless, I think he will lack the votes based on his current curriculum vitae.

Posada is on year three of a four-year deal and it's hard to imagine the Yankees extending him beyond age 40, particularly when their top minor league prospect, Jesus Montero, is a catcher (for now.) What can he do to stick his nose into the HOF tent between now and then? Two more seasons like 2007 would boost his overall bona fides considerably and catapult him over 1,000 runs and RBIs. (It would also probably induce someone to sign him for another year or two, if he's so inclined.) 

The problem is that the effects of his wrinkle cream have to wear off eventually and age 39 is as good a time as any. The stathead projection systems have him at around .260/.350/.450 with 16-18 homers this year, which made Brad Ausmus wet his pajamas when he dreamed of it, but isn't moving Posada any closer to the Hall.

If he comes up short, there's no shame in being one of the 15 greatest ever to don the shin pads, flashing a championship ring on each finger of his throwing hand and earning $116 million over his career. He can visit Cooperstown for free when he accompanies Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera for their induction ceremonies.

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