Streaking on the Diamond

As Goobers' third baseman Dickie Sunog y Mino steps to the plate, play-by-play announcer J.P. Bagel intones that the switch-hitting veteran has opened the season by singling on a 2-2 pitch in each of his first nine games. "Hmmm," you think.

Next up, left fielder Anders Golland. Color analyst Alex Nobelprize notes that the D.C. native knocked a single in his first game, a double in his next, a triple in his third, a homer in his fourth, and then repeated the pattern in his next four games. No one else has ever started a season that way, he adds. "Wow, that's interesting," you say to yourself.

Batting third is Ray Rothenberg, the rookie catcher. Bagel reminds his listeners that the young backstop has walked and scored in each game so far this season. "That's good," you figure.

It's easy to see that each of these occurrences is more statistical quirk than accomplishment. Even in the case of the number two hitter, while six extra base hits in eight games is laudable, accumulating them in a particular pattern is random and not particularly noteworthy. With respect to the third batter, walking is a good outcome that helps lead to a score, but the combined result generally requires significant contributions from teammates.

It's been encouraging therefore, that the baseball media has given as scant attention to Jorge Cantu's nine game streak of hitting safely and knocking in a run as political analysts give to the actual issues. Maybe it was the relatively short duration of the streak that prevented a critical mass of hype from building, but then again, maybe it was the recognition that a nine-game hitting streak isn't unusual and an RBI is a team event. Pushing across a run with a base hit requires no less cooperation from others as scoring after a walk does. 

In fact, a hitting streak is a kind of hollow accomplishment that is two parts luck for every one part skill. The reasons are obvious if you're a baseball fan; it's worth mentioning that a player who is intentionally walked three times and lays down a critical sac bunt in his other plate appearance is penalized, but a guy who goes one-for-five on a squibbler past the mound keeps the streak alive. 

For some reason, ordinary fans and media seem to understand the randomness of the no-hitter, hitting for the cycle and Cantu's streak. It seems to me a baby step to understanding the semi-randomness of RBIs.

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