I've been thinking recently whether Jorge Posada's bronze likeness has a future in Cooperstown and if not, how much more he has to save for the secret decoder ring.
It's an apt question because while Posada has demonstrated remarkable consistency for a backstop, he can't have many more squats left in him at 39. There are also two strikes against him: 1. The Yankees won't Biggio an albatross just so he can reach a milestone like 300 homers or 1,000 RBIs. 2. The class of surefire Famers with eligibility concurrent to Posada's (and therefore competing with him) will likely be impressive.
But first, the preliminaries. Jorge Posada has been a very good catcher for a long time. Every season since he became a regular in '97 he's been an above-average hitter, substantially so whenever healthy. His lifetime .379/.480 OBP/SLG includes 20-30 home runs and 60-100 walks every year. That's a good-hitting left-fielder; it's commendable out of the squat. The defensive metrics, of which I have always been a little dubious, say he's an above-average catcher even as he approaches grizzledom.
What hurts the switch-hitting Puerto Rican is the lack of a keystone season. Posada has posted three spectacular seasons like 2000's .287/.417/.527 with 28 dingers and 35 doubles, but he's hit .300 just once, knocked in 100 runs just once, never scored 100 and never figured real high in the MVP tally.
Clearly, Posada is not in league with the all-time greats like Bench, Berra, Piazza, Carter, Dickey and Rodriguez. Baseball Prospectus rates him roughly the 12th best ever (not including Joe Mauer, who is already 2/3rds of the way to passing him), just behind Mickey Cochrane and just ahead of Ted Simmons. Cochrane was a no-doubt-about-it selection; Simmons was a Posada-type with a long, productive career lacking a spectacular peak.
One finger tipping the scales in Posada's favor is his affiliation with a dynasty. Because HOF voting is still in the hands of people ordering off the wrong menu, he will get credit for his post-season exploits, which are remarkable mostly for their volume. Regardless, I think he will lack the votes based on his current curriculum vitae.
Posada is on year three of a four-year deal and it's hard to imagine the Yankees extending him beyond age 40, particularly when their top minor league prospect, Jesus Montero, is a catcher (for now.) What can he do to stick his nose into the HOF tent between now and then? Two more seasons like 2007 would boost his overall bona fides considerably and catapult him over 1,000 runs and RBIs. (It would also probably induce someone to sign him for another year or two, if he's so inclined.)
The problem is that the effects of his wrinkle cream have to wear off eventually and age 39 is as good a time as any. The stathead projection systems have him at around .260/.350/.450 with 16-18 homers this year, which made Brad Ausmus wet his pajamas when he dreamed of it, but isn't moving Posada any closer to the Hall.
If he comes up short, there's no shame in being one of the 15 greatest ever to don the shin pads, flashing a championship ring on each finger of his throwing hand and earning $116 million over his career. He can visit Cooperstown for free when he accompanies Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera for their induction ceremonies.
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