29 April 2013
That Sinking Feeling On Lake Ontario
The new-look Toronto Blue Jays are off to a 9-17 start after a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Yankees' B squad. They're 9.5 games out of first and have the worst record among Major League teams in the American League. (That excludes the Astros.) They've been outscored 130-95.
It must feel like deja vu for the former Miami Marlins now populating the Blue Jay lineup. After big splash signings before last season, the Marlins turned their gaudy new stadium into a funeral home by crashing into last place and staying there.
It's worth examining whether the imports are the problem or whether the stalwarts from last season's 73-89 team are failing. The answer won't surprise you: it's been a team effort.
Anchoring Toronto last season were slugging right fielder Jose Bautista, breakout first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and pitcher Brandon Morrow.
Encarnacion posted an anomalous .280/.384/.557 with 42 home runs last season, 52% better than average. Bautista smashed 27 homers in half a season while battling a broken wrist. Morrow paced the staff with a 10-7, 2.96 mark in 21 starts.
To that the Jays added R.A. Dickey, the NL Cy Young; two Marlin signees, shortstop Jose Reyes and innings eater Mark Buehrle; and rehabbing Marlin star hurler Josh Johnson; plus drug-fueled Melky Cabrera and infielders Macier Izturis and Emilio Bonifacio.
None of those above-named has delivered in Ontario. Reyes exploded out of the gate with a .476 on base percentage before spraining his way to a familiar spot on the 60-day disabled list. The rest of the everyday players have failed to reach base safely even 32% of the time, though Bautista and Encarnacion are slugging. Typical is Cabrera, whose sudden leap to competence in 2011 and 2012 now seem to owe a debt of gratitude to chemistry. At .250/.303/.300, the Melk Man has achieved an OPS 303 points lower than last year's.
On the hill, Dickey's inconsistent knuckler isn't fooling American League batters, yet at 2-3, 4.66, a far cry from his 2012 domination, he's the ace of those expected to contribute by a country kilometre. Morrow, Johnson and Buehrle are 1-4, 6.12 in the early going.
The Jays start the week with a three-game home set against the first-place Red Sox that offers an opportunity to slice that deficit. Losing two or more in the Rogers Centre will drop them 10+ games behind and set tongues wagging. It's ridiculously early yet, of course, but this is not a division in which 10-game holes are easily scaled.
This Bryce Harper Guy Is Pretty Good
In his first 162 games, Bryce Harper, now a grizzled veteran of 20, has been one of the 10 best everyday players in the majors.
He's soon to eclipse the record for home runs before age 21, currently held by Mel Ott. See the whole Fangraphs article.
He's soon to eclipse the record for home runs before age 21, currently held by Mel Ott. See the whole Fangraphs article.
28 April 2013
This, That and the Other
Ken "Hawk" Harrelson's nine-year vagabond MLB career included a third-place MVP finish in 1968 and a fair amount of part-time, above-average offense. Hawk was an amusing blowhard when he played and he's maintained that record as the Chicago White Sox color analyst.
Harrelson is a card-carrying member of the Tantrum Club whose members stick their fingers in their ears and moan through rolled tongues whenever new analysis explodes their deeply-held mythology. In fact, Harrelson might even be president of this club.
Brian Kenny is a saber-wise host on the MLB network who has educated nearly as many people about baseball as Harrelson has stupefied. Kenny brought Harrelson on his show last week and allowed him an opportunity to explain his ideas, which is another way of saying he provided Hawk enough rope to hang himself.
Harrelson eschews illuminating statistics based on actual research in favor of his own unquantifiable measure -- the will to win. During his rant, he made a long series of provably false claims and if you need to have the evidence provided, you've probably stumbled on the wrong site. Thanks anyway for visiting.
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The truncated NHL season has come to a merciful end and now half the teams start all over with three more months of playoffs. Last season, the L.A. Kings, the last team into the playoffs with more losses than wins, swept through their higher-seeded opponents en route to the Stanley Cup.
When it comes to winning the championship, the regular season is so utterly irrelevant that every contender ought to be installed in Las Vegas as a 15-1 shot.
There are three teams in this year's tournament that have lost as many games as they've won -- Detroit, Ottawa and the Islanders, but you'd never know it from the standings. In an effort to obfuscate how weak the lower-tier playoff contenders are, the NHL calls overtime losses "ties" but overtime victories "wins." As a result, the standings suggest that the Red Wings are 24-16-8 when in fact they won 24 (probably some of them in overtime) and lost 24.
When you have to resort to trickery to validate your product, perhaps you need a new product. Hockey is a spectacular product; the NHL is a disaster.
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Now that the Lakers have proved to be pretenders not just in the regular season but in the playoffs as well, sports talk radio has swiveled its collective head to the other coast. "Next," (after more ads than the Super Bowl) "can the Knicks beat the Heat?"
No.
Now what do we talk about?
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The extraordinarily entertaining and intriguing NFL draft features a handful of encyclopedic minds offering instant critiques like old testament pronouncements about each pick. They never mention the one item that would be particularly illuminating: their own track record.
You heard a lot of analysis of Geno Smith, E.J. Manuel and the other QBs, including definitive statements about how they were taken too high or low. Some of the comparisons invoked the names Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.
How many of these football sachems were calling for teams to draft Wilson and Kaepernick? How many of them even thought Wilson and Kaepernick would start a game in their first two years, much less lead their teams into the playoffs?
Yeah, I thought so.
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Here's another NFL draft head scratcher: teams have been criticized for choosing a player in the right round, but not with the right pick. For example, the team with the ninth pick selects the best player at a position they need who is rated the 20th best player. "He's not a #9 pick," they say.
But the team isn't picking 20th; they're picking ninth. And presumably no one with the next 10 selections will trade with them. So they take the guy they want with the pick they have. If selecting that player will make the team better, isn't that the right choice? It seems like a silly criticism to me.
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The first 25 games of a season are too small a sample to draw conclusions from scratch. For example, the Rockies are 15-9, but we don't know whether they're that good, they're just on a hot streak or some gust of luck has blown their way. (Actually we do know that good scheduling has been at least partly responsible for Colorado's success. They're 1-5 against the Braves and Giants and 6-0 against the sad-sack Padres. Plus, they swept a three-game set against the Mets -- at home in the snow.)
On the other hand, we can learn a lot about things we already thought we knew. Here are four last place teams, with a combined record of 29-65: Houston, Miami, the Cubs and San Diego. It's not too early to draw conclusions about these collections. We thought they would stink and they have delivered in spades.
Harrelson is a card-carrying member of the Tantrum Club whose members stick their fingers in their ears and moan through rolled tongues whenever new analysis explodes their deeply-held mythology. In fact, Harrelson might even be president of this club.
Brian Kenny is a saber-wise host on the MLB network who has educated nearly as many people about baseball as Harrelson has stupefied. Kenny brought Harrelson on his show last week and allowed him an opportunity to explain his ideas, which is another way of saying he provided Hawk enough rope to hang himself.
Harrelson eschews illuminating statistics based on actual research in favor of his own unquantifiable measure -- the will to win. During his rant, he made a long series of provably false claims and if you need to have the evidence provided, you've probably stumbled on the wrong site. Thanks anyway for visiting.
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The truncated NHL season has come to a merciful end and now half the teams start all over with three more months of playoffs. Last season, the L.A. Kings, the last team into the playoffs with more losses than wins, swept through their higher-seeded opponents en route to the Stanley Cup.
When it comes to winning the championship, the regular season is so utterly irrelevant that every contender ought to be installed in Las Vegas as a 15-1 shot.
There are three teams in this year's tournament that have lost as many games as they've won -- Detroit, Ottawa and the Islanders, but you'd never know it from the standings. In an effort to obfuscate how weak the lower-tier playoff contenders are, the NHL calls overtime losses "ties" but overtime victories "wins." As a result, the standings suggest that the Red Wings are 24-16-8 when in fact they won 24 (probably some of them in overtime) and lost 24.
When you have to resort to trickery to validate your product, perhaps you need a new product. Hockey is a spectacular product; the NHL is a disaster.
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Now that the Lakers have proved to be pretenders not just in the regular season but in the playoffs as well, sports talk radio has swiveled its collective head to the other coast. "Next," (after more ads than the Super Bowl) "can the Knicks beat the Heat?"
No.
Now what do we talk about?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The extraordinarily entertaining and intriguing NFL draft features a handful of encyclopedic minds offering instant critiques like old testament pronouncements about each pick. They never mention the one item that would be particularly illuminating: their own track record.
You heard a lot of analysis of Geno Smith, E.J. Manuel and the other QBs, including definitive statements about how they were taken too high or low. Some of the comparisons invoked the names Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.
How many of these football sachems were calling for teams to draft Wilson and Kaepernick? How many of them even thought Wilson and Kaepernick would start a game in their first two years, much less lead their teams into the playoffs?
Yeah, I thought so.
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Here's another NFL draft head scratcher: teams have been criticized for choosing a player in the right round, but not with the right pick. For example, the team with the ninth pick selects the best player at a position they need who is rated the 20th best player. "He's not a #9 pick," they say.
But the team isn't picking 20th; they're picking ninth. And presumably no one with the next 10 selections will trade with them. So they take the guy they want with the pick they have. If selecting that player will make the team better, isn't that the right choice? It seems like a silly criticism to me.
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The first 25 games of a season are too small a sample to draw conclusions from scratch. For example, the Rockies are 15-9, but we don't know whether they're that good, they're just on a hot streak or some gust of luck has blown their way. (Actually we do know that good scheduling has been at least partly responsible for Colorado's success. They're 1-5 against the Braves and Giants and 6-0 against the sad-sack Padres. Plus, they swept a three-game set against the Mets -- at home in the snow.)
On the other hand, we can learn a lot about things we already thought we knew. Here are four last place teams, with a combined record of 29-65: Houston, Miami, the Cubs and San Diego. It's not too early to draw conclusions about these collections. We thought they would stink and they have delivered in spades.
26 April 2013
Ladies and Gentlemen: Your Houami Marstros
If all the girls who attended the Yale prom were laid end to end, I wouldn't be a bit surprised.
-- Dorothy Parker
And suppose you laid the rosters of the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins end-to-end. What would Dorothy Parker make of their WAR?
The answer resides in the "two wrongs don't make a right" range. In this case, two minor league teams don't make a major league squad, even with 6'5" Giancarlo Stanton swatting big flies and 5'6" Jose Altuve scampering around the basepaths. Where some clubs are rebuilding, these two have been condemned, faced demolition and are now empty lots.
I decided to conduct a little thought experiment -- the kind that got Albert Einstein a Nobel Prize -- by combining the two hapless franchises and examining the results.
There is no spoiler alert here: you already know that nothing plus nothing is still nothing. Besides the exciting Altuve, Houston's best players are a 34-year-old outfielder (Rick Ankiel) who got cut last year after 171 plate appearances in Washington, a 35-year-old first baseman (Carlos Pena) who hasn't hit above .227 in five years, and a fourth starter (Bud Norris) with a 4.41 lifetime ERA. Center fielder Justin Maxwell, who swatted 18 homers in half a season last year, might be considered a prospect, though his 114 strikeouts give pause.
And the Astros could win a best-of-seven series against Miami in three games.
The entire Marlin roster has managed six home runs in 20 games, the same number as Atlanta's rookie fill-in backstop, Evan Gattis. Miami's clean-up hitter is Placido Polanco, a 37-year-old third baseman who slugged .327 last year. Miami's top performer after Stanton is fourth starter Ricky Nolasco, a Florida lifer with a 22-25, 4.58 record the last two years. For lack of any other on-field asset, the Marlins employ starter Kevin Slowey, whose two previous seasons feature an 0-8, 6.67 line in 2011 and a year of minor league banishment in 2012.
Not only don't the Houami Marstros (or the Miahou Aslins) avoid 100 losses, but if you contracted both franchises, the rest of the baseball would be hard-pressed to find roster spots for more than a handful of players. (This may be a disservice to Justin Ruggiano, Miami's center fielder who batted .312/.374/.535 with 13 dingers in half a season last year. But that's also the sum total of the damage his bat has done in 10 years of professional baseball. He's 31 and has never otherwise posted an OBP above .273.)
I considered salting the formula with the Seattle Mariners team photo, which, absent King Felix, is such an insult to the state of Washington that even Oregon is indignant. But it's not the lack of actual major league baseball talent on the Marinaters' roster that is so pungent, it's the putrefying remains of Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Justin Smoak. And Endy Chavez, who once upon a time played in Montreal and has served 36 major league, minor league and winter ball teams in his long horsehide journey.
If you live in a minor league town you'll want to familiarize yourself with the players on these teams. They'll be toiling for your team soon enough.
-- Dorothy Parker
And suppose you laid the rosters of the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins end-to-end. What would Dorothy Parker make of their WAR?
The answer resides in the "two wrongs don't make a right" range. In this case, two minor league teams don't make a major league squad, even with 6'5" Giancarlo Stanton swatting big flies and 5'6" Jose Altuve scampering around the basepaths. Where some clubs are rebuilding, these two have been condemned, faced demolition and are now empty lots.
I decided to conduct a little thought experiment -- the kind that got Albert Einstein a Nobel Prize -- by combining the two hapless franchises and examining the results.
There is no spoiler alert here: you already know that nothing plus nothing is still nothing. Besides the exciting Altuve, Houston's best players are a 34-year-old outfielder (Rick Ankiel) who got cut last year after 171 plate appearances in Washington, a 35-year-old first baseman (Carlos Pena) who hasn't hit above .227 in five years, and a fourth starter (Bud Norris) with a 4.41 lifetime ERA. Center fielder Justin Maxwell, who swatted 18 homers in half a season last year, might be considered a prospect, though his 114 strikeouts give pause.
And the Astros could win a best-of-seven series against Miami in three games.
The entire Marlin roster has managed six home runs in 20 games, the same number as Atlanta's rookie fill-in backstop, Evan Gattis. Miami's clean-up hitter is Placido Polanco, a 37-year-old third baseman who slugged .327 last year. Miami's top performer after Stanton is fourth starter Ricky Nolasco, a Florida lifer with a 22-25, 4.58 record the last two years. For lack of any other on-field asset, the Marlins employ starter Kevin Slowey, whose two previous seasons feature an 0-8, 6.67 line in 2011 and a year of minor league banishment in 2012.
Not only don't the Houami Marstros (or the Miahou Aslins) avoid 100 losses, but if you contracted both franchises, the rest of the baseball would be hard-pressed to find roster spots for more than a handful of players. (This may be a disservice to Justin Ruggiano, Miami's center fielder who batted .312/.374/.535 with 13 dingers in half a season last year. But that's also the sum total of the damage his bat has done in 10 years of professional baseball. He's 31 and has never otherwise posted an OBP above .273.)
I considered salting the formula with the Seattle Mariners team photo, which, absent King Felix, is such an insult to the state of Washington that even Oregon is indignant. But it's not the lack of actual major league baseball talent on the Marinaters' roster that is so pungent, it's the putrefying remains of Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Justin Smoak. And Endy Chavez, who once upon a time played in Montreal and has served 36 major league, minor league and winter ball teams in his long horsehide journey.
If you live in a minor league town you'll want to familiarize yourself with the players on these teams. They'll be toiling for your team soon enough.
23 April 2013
We Knew That Bryce Harper Couldn't Keep It Up
Could Bryce Harper really be as good at age 20 as he was at 19? No way. He's better. After picking it up in the power department during last year's second half, he's now pounding NL pitching with seven home runs and .353/.421/.706.
Mike Trout was poised to swallow a big old helping of regression pie after his age-20 season. After bullying his elders in 2012, he's off to a .291/.337/.481 start with just two jacks. On the other hand, he's swiped three bases without a misstep, bringing his career record to 56 steals, five outs.
Both will be challenged to accumulate the value they did last year, as each has moved over from stints in center field to a more or less full-time gig in left.
It's too early to tell exactly what the contours of their season will be. But if you thought 2012 was just a voting-age fluke for these two, well, OPS of 1127 and 818 say otherwise.
Mike Trout was poised to swallow a big old helping of regression pie after his age-20 season. After bullying his elders in 2012, he's off to a .291/.337/.481 start with just two jacks. On the other hand, he's swiped three bases without a misstep, bringing his career record to 56 steals, five outs.
Both will be challenged to accumulate the value they did last year, as each has moved over from stints in center field to a more or less full-time gig in left.
It's too early to tell exactly what the contours of their season will be. But if you thought 2012 was just a voting-age fluke for these two, well, OPS of 1127 and 818 say otherwise.
21 April 2013
A Tale of Two Sluggers
It was the best of starts. It was the worst of starts. Two all-or-nothing sluggers are providing their teams with a bit of all and a bit of nothing, and the contrast is instructive.
Mark Reynolds is now donning Indian garb, swinging his Three True Outcomes stick in Cleveland. Reynolds is the owner of three 204+ strikeout seasons, four 74+ walk seasons and three 32+ home run seasons.
He's following in the gigantic footsteps of 285-pound Adam Dunn, he of 409 lifetime home runs, 2055 whiffs and 1173 free passes. The Big Donkey is coming off a season in which he batted just .204 but gave the White Sox 105 walks and 41 home runs.
For both these players, it's really all about batting average. Even amassing big piles of walks and long balls, they're not real valuable without a few other hits sprinkled in. Dunn's hitting was 12% above average last year; add in his utter lack of baserunning or defensive value and he was pretty close to replacement level despite leaving the yard 41 times. With Reynolds, it's the same equation with a little more defensive and baserunning prowess, but fewer jogs to first.
With one-tenth of the season in the books, Reynolds is getting it done for the Tribe, collecting seven homers and an 1.128 OPS. Dunn is coming undone: three homers and a .454 OPS. One other detail is worth noting:
Mark Reynolds .298/391/.737, 8BB/15K, 7HR
Adam Dunn .108/.159/.295 3BB/26K, 3HR
Dunn is fanning in nearly half his plate appearances, which leaves little opportunity to be productive. Reynolds is making more contact, which leads to more of everything good.
This bodes very poorly for the White Sox, who are paying Dunn for his prodigious Big Fly tendencies accompanied by tolerable batting averages in the .230s. Since he arrived on the South Side in 2011, he's averaged .179/.307/.374, 28 homers, 95 BB and 219 K per 150 games. Not only is Chicago not getting its $15 million worth, it's not getting roster spot value. And the small sample size excuse doesn't work here because it's 289 games of data.
It's very early in 2013 and sluggers are notoriously streaky, so there's hope for Adam Dunn. The tables have turned and now Mark Reynolds is Dunn's guide. But he'll have to dig back to 2010 to turn things around.
Mark Reynolds is now donning Indian garb, swinging his Three True Outcomes stick in Cleveland. Reynolds is the owner of three 204+ strikeout seasons, four 74+ walk seasons and three 32+ home run seasons.
He's following in the gigantic footsteps of 285-pound Adam Dunn, he of 409 lifetime home runs, 2055 whiffs and 1173 free passes. The Big Donkey is coming off a season in which he batted just .204 but gave the White Sox 105 walks and 41 home runs.
For both these players, it's really all about batting average. Even amassing big piles of walks and long balls, they're not real valuable without a few other hits sprinkled in. Dunn's hitting was 12% above average last year; add in his utter lack of baserunning or defensive value and he was pretty close to replacement level despite leaving the yard 41 times. With Reynolds, it's the same equation with a little more defensive and baserunning prowess, but fewer jogs to first.
With one-tenth of the season in the books, Reynolds is getting it done for the Tribe, collecting seven homers and an 1.128 OPS. Dunn is coming undone: three homers and a .454 OPS. One other detail is worth noting:
Mark Reynolds .298/391/.737, 8BB/15K, 7HR
Adam Dunn .108/.159/.295 3BB/26K, 3HR
Dunn is fanning in nearly half his plate appearances, which leaves little opportunity to be productive. Reynolds is making more contact, which leads to more of everything good.
This bodes very poorly for the White Sox, who are paying Dunn for his prodigious Big Fly tendencies accompanied by tolerable batting averages in the .230s. Since he arrived on the South Side in 2011, he's averaged .179/.307/.374, 28 homers, 95 BB and 219 K per 150 games. Not only is Chicago not getting its $15 million worth, it's not getting roster spot value. And the small sample size excuse doesn't work here because it's 289 games of data.
It's very early in 2013 and sluggers are notoriously streaky, so there's hope for Adam Dunn. The tables have turned and now Mark Reynolds is Dunn's guide. But he'll have to dig back to 2010 to turn things around.
20 April 2013
Small Sample Size Fun
If the first three weeks of the season are any indication, the Mets' Matt Harvey is the greatest pitcher of all time. Harvey has dominated opposing batters to the tune of 4-0, 0.93 with 10 hits allowed in 29 innings. He'd won just three games in his entire career before this (10 starts last season.)
And Cardinal first baseman Matt Adams is the greatest masher in history. His .524/.565/1.048 slash stats represent seven games of near invincibility. His 23 plate appearances have produced two walks and 11 hits -- three homers, two doubles and six singles. His 1.613 OPS is more than triple the league average.
Justin Upton leads the majors with nine bombs. Upton didn't smack his ninth last season until August, more than 100 games into the season. His .820 slugging percentage with Atlanta nearly doubles last year's work with Arizona. If you average out the Uptons, by adding in the struggles of Justin's older brother and outfield-mate BJ, you get a less Ruthian .235/.314/.568. I suspect the Uptons would cotton to an .882 OPS in 2013; they'd just like it distributed more evenly.
How about Mr. Vottomatic, Cincinatti's Joey Votto? There's nothing flukey about Votto pacing the majors in walks, but 24 free passes in 80 plate appearances is a bit rich for a guy with just one home run. Votto's on base average of .500 dwarfs his pedestrian .377 slugging average. Most players with upside-down OBP-SLG numbers are Slappy McSpeedster types, not MVP candidates.
Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis is a hero or zero kind of guy. Last season he helped the surprising Orioles by blasting 33 jacks, but otherwise fanned 169 times with just 37 walks, a nearly 5-1 ratio. He's improved on both in 15 games so far this year -- 13 Ks and nine BBs -- en route to the AL lead in homers, RBIs and OPS.
With 21 RBI in 16 games, journeyman backstop John Buck leads the majors, despite playing his home games in the offense-suppressant Citi Field surrounded by a lineup of Justin Turner, David Murphy and Ike Davis (and, to be fair, David Wright). Buck brought home 41 runs in seven times as many 2012 plate appearances.
But if power is your thing, Oakland's Coco Crisp is your guy. With five home runs, seven doubles and a triple in just 58 at bats, Crisp leads MLB in extra base hits. That's an extra base hit every 4.5 at bats. In his previous 4400 major league at bats, Crisp crushed 378 extra base hits, about once every 11.5 at bats. Can you say "regression?"
Kurt Suzuki can. The Nationals' catcher entered today's tilt against the Mets at a handsome .321/.444/.714. An oh-fer day left him at .281/.366/.625. Still attractive, but hardly photo-worthy. Two more days like that and he'll be right around his career numbers of .256/.313/.383.
That Ranger fireballer Yu Darvish is mowing down opponents like a landscaping business requires no regression. The Japanese import whiffed 221 in 192 innings last year. He's blowing them away at an even higher rate this year, but it's his consistency that's so noteworthy. In 33 lifetime starts, Darvish has fanned 10 or more one-third of the time.
It's been a painful start for another Far Eastern product, Reds outfielder Shin-soo Choo, but it could get him into the record books. Choo has thrust out an elbow, pointed a thigh, leaned in a sleeve and turned a back to seven hit-by-pitches in just 77 plate appearances. At this rate, a full season of visits to the batters box will obliterate the single season record of 51 HBPs, which has stood for 115 years.
Of course, "at this rate" may be the three dumbest words in the baseball lexicon, just ahead of "good RBI guy." It's still so early that Matt Cain doesn't yet have a win. Let's wait until Craig Kimbrell allows a run -- say June -- before we put any stock in the numbers.
And Cardinal first baseman Matt Adams is the greatest masher in history. His .524/.565/1.048 slash stats represent seven games of near invincibility. His 23 plate appearances have produced two walks and 11 hits -- three homers, two doubles and six singles. His 1.613 OPS is more than triple the league average.
Justin Upton leads the majors with nine bombs. Upton didn't smack his ninth last season until August, more than 100 games into the season. His .820 slugging percentage with Atlanta nearly doubles last year's work with Arizona. If you average out the Uptons, by adding in the struggles of Justin's older brother and outfield-mate BJ, you get a less Ruthian .235/.314/.568. I suspect the Uptons would cotton to an .882 OPS in 2013; they'd just like it distributed more evenly.
How about Mr. Vottomatic, Cincinatti's Joey Votto? There's nothing flukey about Votto pacing the majors in walks, but 24 free passes in 80 plate appearances is a bit rich for a guy with just one home run. Votto's on base average of .500 dwarfs his pedestrian .377 slugging average. Most players with upside-down OBP-SLG numbers are Slappy McSpeedster types, not MVP candidates.
Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis is a hero or zero kind of guy. Last season he helped the surprising Orioles by blasting 33 jacks, but otherwise fanned 169 times with just 37 walks, a nearly 5-1 ratio. He's improved on both in 15 games so far this year -- 13 Ks and nine BBs -- en route to the AL lead in homers, RBIs and OPS.
With 21 RBI in 16 games, journeyman backstop John Buck leads the majors, despite playing his home games in the offense-suppressant Citi Field surrounded by a lineup of Justin Turner, David Murphy and Ike Davis (and, to be fair, David Wright). Buck brought home 41 runs in seven times as many 2012 plate appearances.
But if power is your thing, Oakland's Coco Crisp is your guy. With five home runs, seven doubles and a triple in just 58 at bats, Crisp leads MLB in extra base hits. That's an extra base hit every 4.5 at bats. In his previous 4400 major league at bats, Crisp crushed 378 extra base hits, about once every 11.5 at bats. Can you say "regression?"
Kurt Suzuki can. The Nationals' catcher entered today's tilt against the Mets at a handsome .321/.444/.714. An oh-fer day left him at .281/.366/.625. Still attractive, but hardly photo-worthy. Two more days like that and he'll be right around his career numbers of .256/.313/.383.
That Ranger fireballer Yu Darvish is mowing down opponents like a landscaping business requires no regression. The Japanese import whiffed 221 in 192 innings last year. He's blowing them away at an even higher rate this year, but it's his consistency that's so noteworthy. In 33 lifetime starts, Darvish has fanned 10 or more one-third of the time.
It's been a painful start for another Far Eastern product, Reds outfielder Shin-soo Choo, but it could get him into the record books. Choo has thrust out an elbow, pointed a thigh, leaned in a sleeve and turned a back to seven hit-by-pitches in just 77 plate appearances. At this rate, a full season of visits to the batters box will obliterate the single season record of 51 HBPs, which has stood for 115 years.
Of course, "at this rate" may be the three dumbest words in the baseball lexicon, just ahead of "good RBI guy." It's still so early that Matt Cain doesn't yet have a win. Let's wait until Craig Kimbrell allows a run -- say June -- before we put any stock in the numbers.
13 April 2013
How Great Is Mariano Rivera?
New analytic tools have led us to understand baseball better and in new ways. They have magnified the under-appreciated and shined light on the game's nuances. They have helped clubs work more efficiently and provided their early adapters with an edge on the competition.
But they have largely failed one area of the game. And that area's name is Mariano Rivera.
There doesn't seem to be any debate today that Rivera is the greatest reliever of all time. He's the all-time saves leader and possesses the lowest ERA relative to the league ever. He's allowed the fewest baserunners per inning in history. He's been well-nigh unhittable in 96 post-season games. He's spun one pitch into 19 dominant seasons. His worst season, at age 37, was merely excellent.
And yet, the analytic tools don't believe he's a Hall of Famer.
When applied to closers, new analysis asks the following question: where ya been? Appearing for just three outs every other day limits the value of a closer, according to Wins Against Replacement and its ilk, even when his work comes in high-leverage situations. Despite pitching into his 40s, Rivera has just 1200 frames under his belt -- about seven good seasons for a starter. The result is that he has accumulated just 54 wins against replacement, well below the standard for a Hall of Fame pitcher. WAR (or WARP) matters because it's the statistic that comes closest to describing a player's overall value in a single number.
That 54 is from Baseball-Reference, which is the most credible of the three main Sabermetric sites with regard to relievers. Baseball Prospectus pegs it at 31.4 while Fangraphs is at the median of 38.7. The discrepancy has much to do with whether the measurements use underlying data as the true level of performance; i.e., whether Rivera is given the credit (as he should be) for a career-long outlier BABIP or whether that's dismissed as luck.
By comparison, Fangraphs credits Mark Buehrle with 45.7 wins against replacement.
The problem, of course, is that comparing a closer to a starter because they're both pitchers is like comparing the ACLU to the Teamsters because they're both unions.
Misused and under-utilized though they are, closers can still be fairly analyzed by comparing them to each other. That limits the sample more or less to Rivera's contemporaries, but that should be enough, given his dominance.
Rivera's lifetime ERA+ of 205 is about half-again beyond the next best closer in history, Trevor Hoffman. He has the lowest walk rate, by far the highest strikeout rate, by far the fewest blown saves and nearly double the Win Probability Added of any short reliever in history.
ERA+ measures a pitcher's ERA relative to the league at the time. Rivera has limited opponents to 2.22 earned runs per nine innings at a time when the American League is scoring 4.55 against non-Rivera pitchers.
The bottom line is that this is a SABR problem, not a Sandman problem. Clearly, WAR (or WARP) is not designed to handle closers, or at least to compare them to starters. Whatever number of wins Rivera allegedly added to the Yankees with his bat-breaking contributions, they are not being reflected in the sabermetric record.
But they have largely failed one area of the game. And that area's name is Mariano Rivera.
There doesn't seem to be any debate today that Rivera is the greatest reliever of all time. He's the all-time saves leader and possesses the lowest ERA relative to the league ever. He's allowed the fewest baserunners per inning in history. He's been well-nigh unhittable in 96 post-season games. He's spun one pitch into 19 dominant seasons. His worst season, at age 37, was merely excellent.
And yet, the analytic tools don't believe he's a Hall of Famer.
When applied to closers, new analysis asks the following question: where ya been? Appearing for just three outs every other day limits the value of a closer, according to Wins Against Replacement and its ilk, even when his work comes in high-leverage situations. Despite pitching into his 40s, Rivera has just 1200 frames under his belt -- about seven good seasons for a starter. The result is that he has accumulated just 54 wins against replacement, well below the standard for a Hall of Fame pitcher. WAR (or WARP) matters because it's the statistic that comes closest to describing a player's overall value in a single number.
That 54 is from Baseball-Reference, which is the most credible of the three main Sabermetric sites with regard to relievers. Baseball Prospectus pegs it at 31.4 while Fangraphs is at the median of 38.7. The discrepancy has much to do with whether the measurements use underlying data as the true level of performance; i.e., whether Rivera is given the credit (as he should be) for a career-long outlier BABIP or whether that's dismissed as luck.
By comparison, Fangraphs credits Mark Buehrle with 45.7 wins against replacement.
The problem, of course, is that comparing a closer to a starter because they're both pitchers is like comparing the ACLU to the Teamsters because they're both unions.
Misused and under-utilized though they are, closers can still be fairly analyzed by comparing them to each other. That limits the sample more or less to Rivera's contemporaries, but that should be enough, given his dominance.
Rivera's lifetime ERA+ of 205 is about half-again beyond the next best closer in history, Trevor Hoffman. He has the lowest walk rate, by far the highest strikeout rate, by far the fewest blown saves and nearly double the Win Probability Added of any short reliever in history.
ERA+ measures a pitcher's ERA relative to the league at the time. Rivera has limited opponents to 2.22 earned runs per nine innings at a time when the American League is scoring 4.55 against non-Rivera pitchers.
The bottom line is that this is a SABR problem, not a Sandman problem. Clearly, WAR (or WARP) is not designed to handle closers, or at least to compare them to starters. Whatever number of wins Rivera allegedly added to the Yankees with his bat-breaking contributions, they are not being reflected in the sabermetric record.
07 April 2013
WAR on Fox! WAR on Fox!
Mark down this date: April 6, 2013.
That's the date that Fox's baseball coverage included discussions of OPS and WAR. Hallelujah!
Joe Buck introduced both notions without snark or derision. He explained the acronyms (On-base Plus Slugging and Wins Against Replacement) and discussed how they are calculated.
In the first discussion, Buck demurred a bit, noting that OPS is hard to calculate. But Fox inserted Ken Rosenthal into the discussion to explain that sabermetricans and front offices prefer OPS to batting average and home runs. Fox may have been setting the stage for using OBP stats in the future by having Rosenthal aver that on base percentage is more meaningful than batting average.
This is a true advance. But Fox wasn't done.
With Miguel Cabrera at the plate, Buck introduced the viewer to WAR. He explained how -- and why! -- Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera earned just the fourth highest WAR in MLB last year.
Supported by a Fox graphic listing the top four WARriors in 2012, Buck explained how Cabrera would fare less well because he's only an offensive force. He noted that Mike Trout, first by far on that list with nearly 11 wins against replacement, runs the bases and plays defense.
It's truly a watershed when a major TV network intransigent in its opposition to advanced metrics finally acknowledges that there is a better alternative to batting average and home runs. Kudos to Fox for accepting what has been proven and helping educate average fans.
The next giant leap will occur when Rosenthal explains on air to Buck the other key element of WAR. The three players ahead of Cabrera on the WAR list are center fielder Trout, second baseman Robinson Cano and catcher Buster Posey. Each plays a more difficult position and is being compared to weaker hitters than a third baseman, if that's what you want to call Cabrera.
And the battle will finally be won when they both explain it to the satisfaction of Tim McCarver.
That's the date that Fox's baseball coverage included discussions of OPS and WAR. Hallelujah!
Joe Buck introduced both notions without snark or derision. He explained the acronyms (On-base Plus Slugging and Wins Against Replacement) and discussed how they are calculated.
In the first discussion, Buck demurred a bit, noting that OPS is hard to calculate. But Fox inserted Ken Rosenthal into the discussion to explain that sabermetricans and front offices prefer OPS to batting average and home runs. Fox may have been setting the stage for using OBP stats in the future by having Rosenthal aver that on base percentage is more meaningful than batting average.
This is a true advance. But Fox wasn't done.
With Miguel Cabrera at the plate, Buck introduced the viewer to WAR. He explained how -- and why! -- Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera earned just the fourth highest WAR in MLB last year.
Supported by a Fox graphic listing the top four WARriors in 2012, Buck explained how Cabrera would fare less well because he's only an offensive force. He noted that Mike Trout, first by far on that list with nearly 11 wins against replacement, runs the bases and plays defense.
It's truly a watershed when a major TV network intransigent in its opposition to advanced metrics finally acknowledges that there is a better alternative to batting average and home runs. Kudos to Fox for accepting what has been proven and helping educate average fans.
The next giant leap will occur when Rosenthal explains on air to Buck the other key element of WAR. The three players ahead of Cabrera on the WAR list are center fielder Trout, second baseman Robinson Cano and catcher Buster Posey. Each plays a more difficult position and is being compared to weaker hitters than a third baseman, if that's what you want to call Cabrera.
And the battle will finally be won when they both explain it to the satisfaction of Tim McCarver.
05 April 2013
A Successful Debut
Associated Press: Mariano Rivera made a successful debut as the Yankees defeated Boston 4-2.
Real Life: Rivera entered the game with a three-run lead. He relinquished a run on a walk and a double before retiring the side. For those of you scoring at home, Red Sox batters hit .250/.400/.500 against him and saddled him with an ERA of 9.00.
But he "earned" a save, so it must have been successful. At least according to dinosaurs like the Association Press.
Thirty-four years and counting.
Real Life: Rivera entered the game with a three-run lead. He relinquished a run on a walk and a double before retiring the side. For those of you scoring at home, Red Sox batters hit .250/.400/.500 against him and saddled him with an ERA of 9.00.
But he "earned" a save, so it must have been successful. At least according to dinosaurs like the Association Press.
Thirty-four years and counting.
04 April 2013
Adventures in Scheduling
Twenty-four thousand souls filled half of Target Field today to witness the Twins' 8-2 whipping of Detroit. The five-run eighth that blew open the game, indeed the final score, will be lost to history as Minnesota drifts into the cellar and Detroit to the top of the AL Central standings.
Witnesses to this event are likely to remember little of the contest but this -- the weather. It was another raw, windy, miserable early-April day in Minneapolis more conducive to sleigh riding than to the Boys of Summer. And yet it counted in the standings.
This scene is being played out across the Northeast and Midwest in places like Chicago and New York and Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. And while Mark Twain's lament about weather discussions being all talk and no action was facetious, a real American today has the right to a serious complaint about MLB's weather-related actions.
Consider this: Road teams this week included Miami, San Diego, Houston and Los Angeles, where Spring is fully sprung and ready for action. How hard would it be to rejigger the schedule so most early- and mid-April (and late September) games occur in warm weather? It would mean the Indians and Rockies and their ilk would wait until late April for their home opener, but they would avoid snow-outs and home field shivering. It would also mean fewer summertime games in the Dallas sauna, the Phoenix microwave and the San Francisco refrigerator.
Assembling a schedule among 30 businesses is a massive juggling act, particularly with all the other considerations, like avoiding dueling home games by teams that share markets. But wouldn't MLB like to have comfortable customers filling the other half of their stadiums?
Witnesses to this event are likely to remember little of the contest but this -- the weather. It was another raw, windy, miserable early-April day in Minneapolis more conducive to sleigh riding than to the Boys of Summer. And yet it counted in the standings.
This scene is being played out across the Northeast and Midwest in places like Chicago and New York and Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. And while Mark Twain's lament about weather discussions being all talk and no action was facetious, a real American today has the right to a serious complaint about MLB's weather-related actions.
Consider this: Road teams this week included Miami, San Diego, Houston and Los Angeles, where Spring is fully sprung and ready for action. How hard would it be to rejigger the schedule so most early- and mid-April (and late September) games occur in warm weather? It would mean the Indians and Rockies and their ilk would wait until late April for their home opener, but they would avoid snow-outs and home field shivering. It would also mean fewer summertime games in the Dallas sauna, the Phoenix microwave and the San Francisco refrigerator.
Assembling a schedule among 30 businesses is a massive juggling act, particularly with all the other considerations, like avoiding dueling home games by teams that share markets. But wouldn't MLB like to have comfortable customers filling the other half of their stadiums?
01 April 2013
Just As We Drew It Up
First, the 108-loss Astros beat Nolan Ryan in his home park. How perfect is that?
Then, the Red Sox thrash the Yankee understudies and their ace in The Bronx, with contributions from Gamecock Jackie Bradley, Jr. A victory for the Lesser of Two Evils.
Finally, my Nats ride a pair of blasts from The Future and seven shutout innings from Stephen Strasburg for an Opening Day win closed by Rafael Soriano.
Oh how I have suffered lo these many years. Dear God of Baseball, may this be my deliverance.
Then, the Red Sox thrash the Yankee understudies and their ace in The Bronx, with contributions from Gamecock Jackie Bradley, Jr. A victory for the Lesser of Two Evils.
Finally, my Nats ride a pair of blasts from The Future and seven shutout innings from Stephen Strasburg for an Opening Day win closed by Rafael Soriano.
Oh how I have suffered lo these many years. Dear God of Baseball, may this be my deliverance.
30 March 2013
Predictions Guaranteed or Your Money Back
On a major sports radio show today the hosts filled two of the short segments that interrupt the endless flow of commercials, promotions and public service announcements with a discussion of the 2013 MLB season.
Specifically, they offered their predictions about division winners and Wild Card participants, earnestly and authoritatively, with scant acknowledgment that they might as well have been predicting the weather in Wilkes-Barre six Tuesdays from now.
The programming break concluded and the network returned to its regularly-scheduled ads before eventually meandering back through another reading of yesterday's scores to the hosts, who would have had time to shower, shave, compete in a bocce tournament and call home in the interim. They then preceded to predict playoff winners right up to the World Series.
Listeners realize intuitively that this is all just for fun, that the hosts have to talk about something to fill literally 24 hours of each day with sports, and that no one is taking these predictions seriously. On the other hand, playoff results in baseball are a coin-flip the day before they start, even if you know who's squaring off and under what conditions. Discussing playoff outcomes in March has every bit the validity of guessing the number of stars in the universe.
Moreover, people with a mere glancing knowledge of baseball, which describes most all sports talk hosts, tend to predict last year's results. Their bold prognostications included the Nationals, Braves, Reds, Giants and Dodgers in the NL. Hey, what a coincidence: four of those five made last year's post-season and the other emptied its piggy bank on imported talent.
Let's instead recognize that part of baseball's beauty is its rampant unpredictability, a function of tomorrow's starting pitcher and winning percentages that rarely top 62% or fall below 38%, not withstanding this year's Astros.
In that vein, here are some real predictions, real in the sense that they will actually come to pass.
1. A team currently lost in the weeds will shock us slowly over 162 games and bust your playoff prediction bubble.
2. The credit for their advance will be spread wide, mostly in the cracks and crevices that are hard to discern, like relief pitching, bench play and luck. The sports media, unable to see how small improvements add up to a better team, will pronounce teamwork, a great clubhouse and a motivating manager responsible, primarily because there's no way to dispute empty claims.
3. One of the big-name teams will crash and burn. Probably your team.
4. Reports of the Yankees' demise are greatly exaggerated. They will make the playoffs and the universe will remain in stasis.
5. Another hotshot young Royals phenom will fail to fulfill his potential and the universe will remain in stasis.
6. Some team will finish exactly where everyone thinks they will, except their three best players will scuffle while three guys you never heard of will carry the team. In other words, we'll get everything wrong about them except their place in the standings.
7. By roughly game 40, some batter will have already socked more homers than he's ever produced in a single season en route to a break-out performance.
8. By roughly game 40, some pitcher will have already scored more wins and quality starts than he's ever produced in a single season en route to a break-out performance.
9. A pitcher like Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren or Ervin Santana will struggle to get outs again in '13 and we'll realize he didn't have an off-year in 2012; his career is in decline.
10. An everyday player will suddenly improve his on-base skills, power, base-stealing and defense, and we'll all assume he's juicing. Because that never happened before there were steroids.
11. Vin Scully will announce Dodger games for the 73rd consecutive year and the universe will remain in stasis. The Dodgers are a contender this year, so there's a chance that Scully will raise his voice at some point.
12. A third-rate outfit like the Indians or Padres will burst from the gate and electrify their fans before folding like origami and losing 89 games.
13. Attendance in Miami will drop below the Mendoza line for a rainy Wednesday night game against the Brewers. Or Rockies.
14. One of the teams that signed Justin Verlander, Buster Posey, Adam Wainwright, Rafael Soriano or Allen Craig to a rich, long-term deal will regret their decision and you'll shake your head at the team's stupidity even though all five contracts made sense at the time.
15. By April 3 at the very latest, John Sterling will grate on your nerves with his contrived braying at Yankee home runs.
16. On May 17, NBC News will declare Houston the loser in the AL West race.
17. On the last day of the season, the sudden-death game pitting two teams tied for the final Wild Card spot will draw lower ratings than an exhibition NFL re-run from 2004.
18. A giant sinkhole could open up beneath Busch Stadium but the St. Louis Cardinals will still compete this year because that's what they do every year. With Albert Pujols bolted and Chris Carpenter's cooked and Tony LaRussa retired and Stan Musial gone the Cards will still be in the mix.
19. And the Cubs won't be. Again.
20. Bold prediction: Miguel Cabrera will bat .300+ with 30+ home runs. There, I said it.
21. Baseball and I will renew our vows. We have never stopped loving each other.
Specifically, they offered their predictions about division winners and Wild Card participants, earnestly and authoritatively, with scant acknowledgment that they might as well have been predicting the weather in Wilkes-Barre six Tuesdays from now.
The programming break concluded and the network returned to its regularly-scheduled ads before eventually meandering back through another reading of yesterday's scores to the hosts, who would have had time to shower, shave, compete in a bocce tournament and call home in the interim. They then preceded to predict playoff winners right up to the World Series.
Listeners realize intuitively that this is all just for fun, that the hosts have to talk about something to fill literally 24 hours of each day with sports, and that no one is taking these predictions seriously. On the other hand, playoff results in baseball are a coin-flip the day before they start, even if you know who's squaring off and under what conditions. Discussing playoff outcomes in March has every bit the validity of guessing the number of stars in the universe.
Moreover, people with a mere glancing knowledge of baseball, which describes most all sports talk hosts, tend to predict last year's results. Their bold prognostications included the Nationals, Braves, Reds, Giants and Dodgers in the NL. Hey, what a coincidence: four of those five made last year's post-season and the other emptied its piggy bank on imported talent.
Let's instead recognize that part of baseball's beauty is its rampant unpredictability, a function of tomorrow's starting pitcher and winning percentages that rarely top 62% or fall below 38%, not withstanding this year's Astros.
In that vein, here are some real predictions, real in the sense that they will actually come to pass.
1. A team currently lost in the weeds will shock us slowly over 162 games and bust your playoff prediction bubble.
2. The credit for their advance will be spread wide, mostly in the cracks and crevices that are hard to discern, like relief pitching, bench play and luck. The sports media, unable to see how small improvements add up to a better team, will pronounce teamwork, a great clubhouse and a motivating manager responsible, primarily because there's no way to dispute empty claims.
3. One of the big-name teams will crash and burn. Probably your team.
4. Reports of the Yankees' demise are greatly exaggerated. They will make the playoffs and the universe will remain in stasis.
5. Another hotshot young Royals phenom will fail to fulfill his potential and the universe will remain in stasis.
6. Some team will finish exactly where everyone thinks they will, except their three best players will scuffle while three guys you never heard of will carry the team. In other words, we'll get everything wrong about them except their place in the standings.
7. By roughly game 40, some batter will have already socked more homers than he's ever produced in a single season en route to a break-out performance.
8. By roughly game 40, some pitcher will have already scored more wins and quality starts than he's ever produced in a single season en route to a break-out performance.
9. A pitcher like Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren or Ervin Santana will struggle to get outs again in '13 and we'll realize he didn't have an off-year in 2012; his career is in decline.
10. An everyday player will suddenly improve his on-base skills, power, base-stealing and defense, and we'll all assume he's juicing. Because that never happened before there were steroids.
11. Vin Scully will announce Dodger games for the 73rd consecutive year and the universe will remain in stasis. The Dodgers are a contender this year, so there's a chance that Scully will raise his voice at some point.
12. A third-rate outfit like the Indians or Padres will burst from the gate and electrify their fans before folding like origami and losing 89 games.
13. Attendance in Miami will drop below the Mendoza line for a rainy Wednesday night game against the Brewers. Or Rockies.
14. One of the teams that signed Justin Verlander, Buster Posey, Adam Wainwright, Rafael Soriano or Allen Craig to a rich, long-term deal will regret their decision and you'll shake your head at the team's stupidity even though all five contracts made sense at the time.
15. By April 3 at the very latest, John Sterling will grate on your nerves with his contrived braying at Yankee home runs.
16. On May 17, NBC News will declare Houston the loser in the AL West race.
17. On the last day of the season, the sudden-death game pitting two teams tied for the final Wild Card spot will draw lower ratings than an exhibition NFL re-run from 2004.
18. A giant sinkhole could open up beneath Busch Stadium but the St. Louis Cardinals will still compete this year because that's what they do every year. With Albert Pujols bolted and Chris Carpenter's cooked and Tony LaRussa retired and Stan Musial gone the Cards will still be in the mix.
19. And the Cubs won't be. Again.
20. Bold prediction: Miguel Cabrera will bat .300+ with 30+ home runs. There, I said it.
21. Baseball and I will renew our vows. We have never stopped loving each other.
29 March 2013
A Bunch of Lohsers
Here's my theory: Milwaukee Brewer management is so enamored with its crackling-smart win-now strategy of 2011 -- during which they leveraged acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum for the last year of Prince Fielder's tenure in Wisconsin to a division title -- that they decided to reprise the approach this year.
That would explain why they've paid $33 million and their top draft pick for three years of 34-year-old flash-in-the-pan Kyle Lohse. If Lohse is a number two starter, as his contract suggests, then I'm a number two pencil.
Last year, Lohse pitched the most innings, won the most games, lost the fewest, struck out the most, had the most quality starts, the best K/BB rate, the lowest WHIP and by far the lowest ERA of his journeyman career. After 10 seasons of 88-98, 4.80, Lohse has responded to Dave Duncan's tutelage in St. Louis for a pair of 30-11, 3.10 seasons.
So he's a new pitcher, right? Yeah, not so much. Lady luck has escorted the California righty the last two years, and left him in the care of good Cardinal defense when she's been unavailable. Whether she returns for a third year is up to her, and no one ever accused Milwaukee's fielding of aptitude.
Moreover, and sadly for the team's faithful, it's not 2011 anymore. Fielder, Greinke and Marcum are gone and the Brewers are making a beeline for the basement in the NL Central. Even if Lohse's second act continues, and that's not the way to bet, he might catapult them to .500 in 2013. But he'll cost them in future years, because signing a free agent offered a deal by his incumbent team costs a first-round pick, something the Brews' barren system could little afford to sacrifice.
A lot of mediocre teams are acting as if there are eight extra Wild Cards instead of one and flipping the future for a very uncertain present. It's going to work for someone someday and maybe this is the Brewers' year. But probably not, and Lohse's signing reduces the odds that the next few will be their years either.
That would explain why they've paid $33 million and their top draft pick for three years of 34-year-old flash-in-the-pan Kyle Lohse. If Lohse is a number two starter, as his contract suggests, then I'm a number two pencil.
Last year, Lohse pitched the most innings, won the most games, lost the fewest, struck out the most, had the most quality starts, the best K/BB rate, the lowest WHIP and by far the lowest ERA of his journeyman career. After 10 seasons of 88-98, 4.80, Lohse has responded to Dave Duncan's tutelage in St. Louis for a pair of 30-11, 3.10 seasons.
So he's a new pitcher, right? Yeah, not so much. Lady luck has escorted the California righty the last two years, and left him in the care of good Cardinal defense when she's been unavailable. Whether she returns for a third year is up to her, and no one ever accused Milwaukee's fielding of aptitude.
Moreover, and sadly for the team's faithful, it's not 2011 anymore. Fielder, Greinke and Marcum are gone and the Brewers are making a beeline for the basement in the NL Central. Even if Lohse's second act continues, and that's not the way to bet, he might catapult them to .500 in 2013. But he'll cost them in future years, because signing a free agent offered a deal by his incumbent team costs a first-round pick, something the Brews' barren system could little afford to sacrifice.
A lot of mediocre teams are acting as if there are eight extra Wild Cards instead of one and flipping the future for a very uncertain present. It's going to work for someone someday and maybe this is the Brewers' year. But probably not, and Lohse's signing reduces the odds that the next few will be their years either.
23 March 2013
Peeking In the Record Book
Twenty-thirteen could be a big year for Jim Thome, if he manages to make an MLB team and get in games. With 50 more strikeouts, Thome will become the sport's all-time Whiffer King, passing Reggie Jackson with 2,598 futilities.
Bobby Abreu also has his sights set on posterity. If the 38-year-old outfielder can get into 59 games this season, he'll move into the Top 10 for games played without a World Series appearance, with 2,406. (Fittingly, Rafael Palmeiro is first with 2,831.)
Sadly, Thome and Abreu have entered involuntary retirement mode. The Twins have allegedly kicked Thome's tires and found him wanting at 42, while the Orioles have suggested they might bring in Abreu if the alternatives gag them in Spring Training.
But there are others who can look up the history's ledger and see opportunities to climb into the top reaches. Alex Rodriguez, for example, is seventh of the home run list, but can pass Willie Mays for fourth with just 14 more jacks. He's also within 99 hits of 3,000 and 47 RBIs of fourth place (passing Barry Bonds). The price for all that is five more Ks, which would move him ahead of Sammy Sosa (2036) to third all-time. But there's good news in that regard. Adam Dunn, a much more prolific fanning machine, sits just one strikeout behind ARod and figures to play fulltime for the White Sox, who owe him $30 mil over the next two years.
His teammate is 12 hits from 10th place on the all-time list. Where Derek Jeter has an advantage is that last year's injury -- a broken ankle -- isn't keeping him off the field in 2013. ARod could be out all season with his hip woes, and will almost certainly miss most of the first half. With 132 more safeties Jeter clips Cap Anson for sixth place, after accumulating 216 last year. Jeter can also move up to 15th on the strikeout list ahead of Manny Ramirez with 70 more strike-threes. He fanned 90 times last year.
Albert Pujols is starting to introduce himself to the record books. With 25 more dingers, he becomes the 26th member of the 500 Club. Another five puts him in the top 25, ahead of Eddie Murray.
On the hill, Mariano Rivera's next save breaks the all-time save record of 608, currently held by Mariano Rivera. Aside from Trevor Hoffman's 601, Rivera is already 130 saves ahead of anyone else, pending his last season in 2013. With 31 more saves, Jason Isringhausen can move into 11th place with 331. Joe Nathan is two behind Izzy.
Andy Pettitte leads all MLB pitchers in career wins with 245, good for 51st in history. Two more cracks the top 50 and 15 more gets him to 41st place. Roy Halladay leads active pitchers in finishing what he started with 66 complete games, nearly twice as many as second-place CC Sabatha (35). That slots him in at 644th on the all time list, just 683 behind Cy Young.
Some other active players will move up the hierarchy in their particular specialties. Todd Helton is four doubles from the top 20. Carl Crawford cracks the top 100 with four more triples, and gets to 49th in stolen bases with 24 more thefts. Ichiro, now at 51st in steals, gets to 41st with 30 more. Juan Pierre, now 19th all-time, needs 32 to swipe 15th place from Kenny Lofton, with 623.
Finally, there is the fine work of Paul Konerko, who can pass Frank Robinson for 20th all-time by grounding into eight more double plays. Don't laugh: 12 of the ballers in front of him are Hall of Famers. Nonetheless, he's probably more focused on the 78 home runs he needs for 500. At 37, and with 96 in his last three seasons, it seems likely. Go Paulie.
18 March 2013
Getting Hosed: A Short Hoops Interval
When the NCAA men's basketball brackets were first revealed on CBS last night, Oregon's shocking 12 seed jumped off the screen. A top 25 team, the Ducks were among the Pac-13's (or whatever number it is now) elite and swept the league tournament, defeating UCLA, a team given a six seed, in its home city.
Analyst Doug Gotlieb, a former Oklahoma State star and current college hoops savant, jumped down the throat of the selection committee chair, bluntly demanding an explanation (which he didn't get.)
March madness, indeed! In a rational universe, Oregon almost certainly merits an eight seed, maybe a nine. Dropping them four lines means the NCAA sachems rated them 16 teams lower than the rest of America did. The irony is that the committee did the Ducks a favor. The eight-nine line is the tournament death star because the winner draws a nearly unbeatable #1 seed everytime.
As I've documented before, there's virtually no difference between a six seed and a seven, eight, nine, or even a 10 or 11. Everyone from six to 11 is talented but flawed and it doesn't take a lot going right for an 11 or wrong for a six, to produce an upset, as we've seen repeatedly in the tournament.
This line of reasoning fails at the top of the bracket. There are discernible gaps between the top seeds and teams just a little bit lower.
What this adds up to is: an eight seed has no advantage whatsoever in the first round and a giant hill to climb in the second. A 12 seed is just slightly less likely to survive the first round but significantly more likely to defeat a four-seed -- or the 13 -- in the second round.
I assume the Oregon coach is smart enough to zip his team's lips publicly but to deal the disrespect card privately every chance he gets.
Which means the team that really got hosed was Oklahoma State, a fifth seed with a win-or-go-home first-round contest against an angry #8 in the 12 spot.
Analyst Doug Gotlieb, a former Oklahoma State star and current college hoops savant, jumped down the throat of the selection committee chair, bluntly demanding an explanation (which he didn't get.)
March madness, indeed! In a rational universe, Oregon almost certainly merits an eight seed, maybe a nine. Dropping them four lines means the NCAA sachems rated them 16 teams lower than the rest of America did. The irony is that the committee did the Ducks a favor. The eight-nine line is the tournament death star because the winner draws a nearly unbeatable #1 seed everytime.
As I've documented before, there's virtually no difference between a six seed and a seven, eight, nine, or even a 10 or 11. Everyone from six to 11 is talented but flawed and it doesn't take a lot going right for an 11 or wrong for a six, to produce an upset, as we've seen repeatedly in the tournament.
This line of reasoning fails at the top of the bracket. There are discernible gaps between the top seeds and teams just a little bit lower.
What this adds up to is: an eight seed has no advantage whatsoever in the first round and a giant hill to climb in the second. A 12 seed is just slightly less likely to survive the first round but significantly more likely to defeat a four-seed -- or the 13 -- in the second round.
I assume the Oregon coach is smart enough to zip his team's lips publicly but to deal the disrespect card privately every chance he gets.
Which means the team that really got hosed was Oklahoma State, a fifth seed with a win-or-go-home first-round contest against an angry #8 in the 12 spot.
17 March 2013
And Now for Something Completely Different
Today we're going to talk about pop-up rate and Z-contact, their inverse correlation to BABIP and their effect on DIPS projections.
Ha! Just kidding! I mean, that's what we'll be discussing , but you won't know it. What you will know is that we've engaged in a new and fascinating discussion that might help you win your fantasy baseball league.
Ha! If anything in this blog were actually fascinating, Braindrizzling would be positively thrumming with annoying but remunerative pop-up ads and flashing banners. Far more likely, you'll find it mildly relevant if you manage to read to the end.
First things first: this blog post owes everything to Dave Cameron and Voros McCracken. It is a recapitulation of this fine post by Cameron at Fangraphs.
Fourth things second: there will be no math and you won't be quizzed on it next week. However, there will be a wee bit of trailblazing that will help us understand yet a skooch better how pitchers succeed or fail.
Second things third: the abridged version of the back story. Sabermetricians, led by McCracken in '99, realized that pitchers can control Ks, BBs, HBP and HRs, and not much else. Fielding, ballpark and luck are much more relevant than pitcher aptitude to whether a grounder punches through for a single or gets gobbled up by the shortstop for a 6-4-3. Their BABIP-against, that is, the batting average on all those other balls put into play, tends to be random. Sort of. Hurlers with high BABIP one year often have low ones the next and vice versa. Not all and not always, but more or less. Void where prohibited by law.
Except: flyball pitchers give up fewer safeties than worm killers. On the other hand, those fly ball hits more often fall in as doubles and triples and those four hoppers through the infield rarely push the hitter past first.
So when the SABR dudes attempt to project pitching ERAs, they don't look at a pitcher's previous ERA but at the constituent parts -- HR, K, BB, HBP -- and assume an average BABIP going forward. These projections have bested projections using just previous ERA by a significant and consistent amount over the last decade, particularly as further refinements -- like ground ball and fly ball proclivities -- have helped salt the projections.
In English, if you want a prediction of Johnny Cueto's ERA in 2013 because you're considering making a bid on him in your fantasy league, his 2012 ERA of 2.78 says GO! But his constituent parts whisper FLUKE! They project a 3.74 ERA in 2013, assuming a league-average BABIP.
And now for something completely different: Suppose Dave Cameron tells you that he has a formula that's NEW AND IMPROVED! It can account 15% better for the batting average against a pitcher on balls put in play. That means he can get you a better idea of the pitcher's ERA and WHIP, and give you a leg up on the innumerate competition. Has Dave Cameron ever lied to you before?
In a nutshell, what Cameron found is that pitchers who induce a lot of pop-ups and who get batters to swing and miss on more pitches in the strike zone, reduce their BABIPs. It's partly why consistently good pitchers, like Justin Verlander and Jared Weaver, post consistently low BABIPs. In other words, we've found another way that BABIP is not entirely random for pitchers. (It's not random at all for batters, as anyone who's watched Ichiro knows intuitively.)
If Cameron's conclusion is supported by more research -- because this is how science advances -- pitching projections will get 15% better. How big a deal is that? Five advances of 15% each double the accuracy of projections. (Trust me on the math; I stayed in a Holiday Inn near MIT.) But even without four more Eureka moments among the seamheads, you can look up a pitcher's pop-up rate last year and squeeze out an edge on the competition in your fantasy league.
The naysayers will still neigh because advances of these stripe -- small and complicated -- are hard to see. The projections still won't identify the lucky dogs, the breakthroughs and the cliff divers. They won't be able to predict which pitcher tamed his control tiger, altered his mechanics and added 4 mph to his heater, or just figured something out. Truth is, luck is still way too big a factor in baseball to overcome with science. But if science can help you win your fantasy league you probably want to listen to the scientists.
Ha! Just kidding! I mean, that's what we'll be discussing , but you won't know it. What you will know is that we've engaged in a new and fascinating discussion that might help you win your fantasy baseball league.
Ha! If anything in this blog were actually fascinating, Braindrizzling would be positively thrumming with annoying but remunerative pop-up ads and flashing banners. Far more likely, you'll find it mildly relevant if you manage to read to the end.
First things first: this blog post owes everything to Dave Cameron and Voros McCracken. It is a recapitulation of this fine post by Cameron at Fangraphs.
Fourth things second: there will be no math and you won't be quizzed on it next week. However, there will be a wee bit of trailblazing that will help us understand yet a skooch better how pitchers succeed or fail.
Second things third: the abridged version of the back story. Sabermetricians, led by McCracken in '99, realized that pitchers can control Ks, BBs, HBP and HRs, and not much else. Fielding, ballpark and luck are much more relevant than pitcher aptitude to whether a grounder punches through for a single or gets gobbled up by the shortstop for a 6-4-3. Their BABIP-against, that is, the batting average on all those other balls put into play, tends to be random. Sort of. Hurlers with high BABIP one year often have low ones the next and vice versa. Not all and not always, but more or less. Void where prohibited by law.
Except: flyball pitchers give up fewer safeties than worm killers. On the other hand, those fly ball hits more often fall in as doubles and triples and those four hoppers through the infield rarely push the hitter past first.
So when the SABR dudes attempt to project pitching ERAs, they don't look at a pitcher's previous ERA but at the constituent parts -- HR, K, BB, HBP -- and assume an average BABIP going forward. These projections have bested projections using just previous ERA by a significant and consistent amount over the last decade, particularly as further refinements -- like ground ball and fly ball proclivities -- have helped salt the projections.
In English, if you want a prediction of Johnny Cueto's ERA in 2013 because you're considering making a bid on him in your fantasy league, his 2012 ERA of 2.78 says GO! But his constituent parts whisper FLUKE! They project a 3.74 ERA in 2013, assuming a league-average BABIP.
And now for something completely different: Suppose Dave Cameron tells you that he has a formula that's NEW AND IMPROVED! It can account 15% better for the batting average against a pitcher on balls put in play. That means he can get you a better idea of the pitcher's ERA and WHIP, and give you a leg up on the innumerate competition. Has Dave Cameron ever lied to you before?
In a nutshell, what Cameron found is that pitchers who induce a lot of pop-ups and who get batters to swing and miss on more pitches in the strike zone, reduce their BABIPs. It's partly why consistently good pitchers, like Justin Verlander and Jared Weaver, post consistently low BABIPs. In other words, we've found another way that BABIP is not entirely random for pitchers. (It's not random at all for batters, as anyone who's watched Ichiro knows intuitively.)
If Cameron's conclusion is supported by more research -- because this is how science advances -- pitching projections will get 15% better. How big a deal is that? Five advances of 15% each double the accuracy of projections. (Trust me on the math; I stayed in a Holiday Inn near MIT.) But even without four more Eureka moments among the seamheads, you can look up a pitcher's pop-up rate last year and squeeze out an edge on the competition in your fantasy league.
The naysayers will still neigh because advances of these stripe -- small and complicated -- are hard to see. The projections still won't identify the lucky dogs, the breakthroughs and the cliff divers. They won't be able to predict which pitcher tamed his control tiger, altered his mechanics and added 4 mph to his heater, or just figured something out. Truth is, luck is still way too big a factor in baseball to overcome with science. But if science can help you win your fantasy league you probably want to listen to the scientists.
16 March 2013
The Meaning of "Spring Training"
Spring Training is a Dominican phrase meaning "people being idiots." ("Ring" = thing people wear, +"p" = just the people + "s" = plural, so Spring = many people; "training" = hoping to know something someday, but currently quite stupid.)
This is borne out by a report from the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues I read yesterday, written by a veteran journalist not heretofore known to be a moron. It said, among other things, the following:
This spring, scouts are raving about how much Bryce Harper has improved. He is hitting .444/.459/.806 with three home runs in 37 plate appearances this spring.
It seemed like the Indians were really reaching when they signed lefthander Scott Kazmir as a minor-league free agent over the winter. Kazmir has not pitched in the major leagues since the first week of the 2011 season, and he posted a 5.34 ERA in 64 innings for the Sugar Land Skeeters in the independent Atlantic League last season. However, Kazmir has yet to allow a run in eight Cactus League innings this spring and also pitched three scoreless innings in a B game. In his eight official innings, he has given up just five hits and one walk while striking out eight.
(In the same article, the author refers to a player who couldn't master the game's "basic fundamentals." The writer could use a lesson in mastering the "basic fundamentals" of covering Spring Training.)
There's actually only one "basic fundamental" about Spring Training: it rarely matters. Bryce Harper is hitting .444 in 37 plate appearances against fellow 20-year-olds whose training wheels are being adjusted so they can be successful for the Double-A West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx this year.
Scott Kazmir threw 11 good innings spread over three starts, at least one of which was against ball boys and hot dog vendors. That is supposed to have more weight than two years of evidence that he's no longer among the top 400 best hurlers in the world.
Dear writer, here's how you know when Bryce Harper and Scott Kazmir are ready to break out: when they blow off Spring Training. When they use it to master a mechanical change or experiment with a new grip -- that's when they've really made it.
That theory, however, does not apply to Roy Halladay. Phillie fans should be creasing brows about his first Spring Training start. It's not that Halladay got lit up like doobie at a hipster party; it's that his velocity, which has dipped each of the past two seasons, ebbed again below 90. That is portentious in two ways:
1. There is a point at which a lack of fastball velocity can sap the value of every other pitch. If your heater is 89 and your change is 85, no one's getting fooled, not even Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds.
2. The Phillies are already little more than three great starters and the cast from Jurassic Park. If Halladay is no longer effective, Philadelphia's quest for a .500 season is in jeopardy.
So okay, Spring Training can mean something. Halladay's next two starts will determine whether the first one was another sign of the apocalypse or just a fissure in Doc's space-time continuum. But before more of those Kazmir stories get written, can we please use a little judgment?
07 March 2013
Gays and Ballplayers and Locker Rooms, Oh My!
Let's suppose you're a narrow-minded, ignorant homophobe (to be doubly redundant) baseball player and you feel you'd be uncomfortable with a gay teammate in the locker room with you. Allow me to make three small observations:
1. Boy are you in for a shock. 5%-15% of population x 25 guys on a team = 1-4 gays per squad.
2. Substitute "black" for "gay" and go back 60 years. Fun with racism!
3. Which would you prefer, showering in the stall next to a naked gay teammate hitting .360 or
showering in the stall next to a naked straight teammate hitting .190?
See? Turns out you're not such a narrow-minded, ignorant homophobe after-all.
1. Boy are you in for a shock. 5%-15% of population x 25 guys on a team = 1-4 gays per squad.
2. Substitute "black" for "gay" and go back 60 years. Fun with racism!
3. Which would you prefer, showering in the stall next to a naked gay teammate hitting .360 or
showering in the stall next to a naked straight teammate hitting .190?
See? Turns out you're not such a narrow-minded, ignorant homophobe after-all.
06 March 2013
Mike Trout's Getting Rooked (Or He's Not)
Shortly after Marvin Miller took command of the baseball players' union he discovered to his horror that the baseball card companies -- well, company: Topps -- were inducing rookies and minor leaguers to essentially give away the rights to their likeness by offering a handful of coins and Major League blandishment. Miller proposed to Topps that they negotiate a deal that would more fairly compensate the players for the millions that Topps was reaping.
Topps told Miller they had no reason to negotiate with him. "We don't see your muscle," they told him.
So Miller visited every MLB camp the following spring and exhorted the players not to sign the deals no matter their affinity for baseball cards. In return, he promised the players he would get them a better deal.
When Topps ran into a series of brick walls, they called Miller. Seeing his "muscle," they worked out a new deal that doubled player royalties and earned their union hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Hundreds of thousands of dollars, specifically 510 of them, is the amount that Mike Trout will "earn" in 2013, thanks to a four percent raise from his employer. That is his reward for one of the most extraordinary seasons in baseball history. Trout will take home $20K above the minimum salary for second-year players.
Mike Trout's MVP-level season was worth roughly $60 million on open-market last year, based on his 12+ WARP and a market value of nearly $5 million per win. For that performance, he earned the MLB minimum of $480,000.
Trout is unlikely to come close to repeating that in his sophomore season, but even if he's half as valuable, he's still outperforming his salary by $29.5 million.
What Angel management understands is that he has no "muscle." The Collective Bargaining Agreement signed by the league and the union gives teams total control of players until they reach salary arbitration in year three. This is designed to compensate teams for the substantial investments they make in player development.
Angel owner Arte Moreno is hardly known for austerity. He's made Google-sized investments in Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, and has a Lehman Brothers deal with Vernon Wells. He could have thrown Trout an extra hundred grand -- couch cushion change for the franchise -- to reward him for propelling the team to contention and ingratiate the franchise to the player come free agent time. But he didn't have to. And so, Trout will earn all year what Alex Rodriguez will "earn" in three games -- three games, that is, that ARod won't play.
But even a 21-year-old knows that "my time will come," and possibly soon. L.A. brass of Anaheim may already be working on a deal with Trout's representatives to buy out arbitration and a year or two of free agency. It may be wise to lowball his current compensation to create an incentive to sign a long-term deal. Arte Moreno didn't turn a half-million dollar ad agency into an $8 billion asset by making bad business decisions.
And when Trout gets his consolation prize -- whether he's 21 or 23 when it happens -- it will be in the Powerball range. In the meantime, he's the highest-paid 21-year-old this side of ... well, Bryce Harper, whose leverage is apparently greater. Harper earns $2 million this year, a mere $23 million below his value.
Topps told Miller they had no reason to negotiate with him. "We don't see your muscle," they told him.
So Miller visited every MLB camp the following spring and exhorted the players not to sign the deals no matter their affinity for baseball cards. In return, he promised the players he would get them a better deal.
When Topps ran into a series of brick walls, they called Miller. Seeing his "muscle," they worked out a new deal that doubled player royalties and earned their union hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Hundreds of thousands of dollars, specifically 510 of them, is the amount that Mike Trout will "earn" in 2013, thanks to a four percent raise from his employer. That is his reward for one of the most extraordinary seasons in baseball history. Trout will take home $20K above the minimum salary for second-year players.
Mike Trout's MVP-level season was worth roughly $60 million on open-market last year, based on his 12+ WARP and a market value of nearly $5 million per win. For that performance, he earned the MLB minimum of $480,000.
Trout is unlikely to come close to repeating that in his sophomore season, but even if he's half as valuable, he's still outperforming his salary by $29.5 million.
What Angel management understands is that he has no "muscle." The Collective Bargaining Agreement signed by the league and the union gives teams total control of players until they reach salary arbitration in year three. This is designed to compensate teams for the substantial investments they make in player development.
Angel owner Arte Moreno is hardly known for austerity. He's made Google-sized investments in Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, and has a Lehman Brothers deal with Vernon Wells. He could have thrown Trout an extra hundred grand -- couch cushion change for the franchise -- to reward him for propelling the team to contention and ingratiate the franchise to the player come free agent time. But he didn't have to. And so, Trout will earn all year what Alex Rodriguez will "earn" in three games -- three games, that is, that ARod won't play.
But even a 21-year-old knows that "my time will come," and possibly soon. L.A. brass of Anaheim may already be working on a deal with Trout's representatives to buy out arbitration and a year or two of free agency. It may be wise to lowball his current compensation to create an incentive to sign a long-term deal. Arte Moreno didn't turn a half-million dollar ad agency into an $8 billion asset by making bad business decisions.
And when Trout gets his consolation prize -- whether he's 21 or 23 when it happens -- it will be in the Powerball range. In the meantime, he's the highest-paid 21-year-old this side of ... well, Bryce Harper, whose leverage is apparently greater. Harper earns $2 million this year, a mere $23 million below his value.
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