Luck Is Not the Residue of Design In Baseball or In Life

Branch Rickey famously said that "luck is the residue of design." Branch Rickey was a baseball man and luck is part of baseball so it's worth examination in a baseball blog.

You might have noticed that only lucky people make this statement. They want to take credit for their good fortune. Partisan politics aside, it's not possible to view the life of George W. Bush -- who screwed up in college, over-imbibed in alcohol and cocaine in his 30s, bankrupted two companies, got himself removed from a corporate board in his 40s and traded away young Sammy Sosa as president of the Texas Rangers -- without recognizing the immense power of luck. Had he been George Tree, instead of the rich scion of a politically connected family, it seems pretty obvious that he wouldn't have been accepted to Yale, installed as a corporate CEO, served on well-paying boards, been installed atop an MLB team or won election to the local zoning board, much less the presidency.

Indeed, luck and design are utterly independent. Good design can mitigate bad fortune and exploit good, but overwhelmingly bad luck will ruin all but the most adept. Even the best horse-and-buggy makers were put out of business by Henry Ford. 

Which brings us to baseball.

Tigers' third baseman Nick Castellanos, a lifetime .258 hitter, leads the American League in batting average so far this season at a .378 clip. No doubt he is hot: he's already pounded half as many home runs (7) as last year in a fifth as many at bats. He's also batting .449 on balls in play, even though the distribution of the balls he's hit is only marginally better than in the previous two seasons. 

In other words, Catellanos's grounders are dribbling through a hole. His lazy flies are dropping between charging fielders. His line drives are not getting snared. He has been lucky.

There's a fella named Pujols whose batting average (.183) is less than half of Castellanos's. He's not ripping as many line drives as Castellanos but he's killing many more worms, the kind of batted balls that metamorphose into singles at a high rate. Combine his relative turtle-speed with a snoozing patron saint of serendipity and Albert's hitting just .160 on balls in play. That's horrible luck.

Perhaps Branch Rickey would blame design, but Pujols has fanned half as many times as Castellanos, while walking twice as often. That suggests that Castellanos is just plain lucky. We should think twice, for example, before voting him to the All-Star team.

And while on average these trends will regress to middle ground, sometimes they fester all season. In 2002, Cubs infielder Jose Hernandez batted .404 on balls in play for no apparent reason en route to a .288 batting average and an All Star selection. He never again came within 50 points of OPS over a whole season and retired with a .252 batting average.

We can overcome bad luck and allow good luck to slip by unnoticed. But refusing to acknowledge its mighty influence is just silly.

Mike Trout Is About To Pass Nolan Ryan

Every month I attend presentations of my industry trade group's local chapter. Speakers come from out of town and often tell us what we already know but haven't been doing, at least not optimally. I often walk away with a renewed commitment to do some old thing better.

We should likewise check in now and then on the centrifugal force that is Mike Trout. Now in his fifth Major League season at age 24, Trout is #5 on the WAR chart for all who have worn the uniform of the Los Angeles Anaheim California Angels of Anaheim, California. 

Or Is He Fourth?
Read fast, because by the time you are done, he might be fourth. He's a sliver of a win behind Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan, who pitched eight seasons for the then-California Angels.

Or third. He's a larger fraction of a win behind Tim Salmon, whose entire 14-year career was spent with the club, first with California, then with Anaheim, and at the end with Los Angeles of Anaheim.

Being Mike Trout in 2016
Through May 4, Trout was hitting .317, slugging seven homers, sparkling in center field and accounting for about two wins against replacement. At the rate he's going he'll conclude the season in second place all-time among Angel players, leapfrogging Jim Fregosi along the way. It'll take a sixth campaign to overtake Chuck Finley for first place, but that's getting ahead of ourselves.

We don't want to gaze off into the forest and neglect appreciating the mighty redwood standing before us. Or maybe it should be the ocean and the mighty Trout.

Fire Fredi Gonzalez? Fire Robert E. Lee While You're At It

The 7-20 Atlanta Braves have run up the flagpole the firing of manager Fredi Gonzalez. His dismissal can't be too many losses away.

Gonzalez has presided over a pair of losing skids this season -- eight and nine games -- bracketing a four-game win streak. They have the worst record in the game, befitting the worst collection of talent in the sport.

This is nothing new. Gonzalez skippered last year's sinking ship, which crashed after the All-Star break on a 22-53 record. He helmed the 2014 squad that cratered to an 11-22 finish.

Good Guy. Bad Manager?
Gonzalez's friends and detractors alike acknowledge that he's a good guy, a loyal soldier and a mediocre tactician, not the worst but far from the best in the Majors. Braves' brass evidently thinks Gonzalez is a patient teacher because they re-upped him and his coaching staff midway through last season as their sell-off began.

The Braves are in a tear-down in preparation for their move to Marietta. They've sold off or let go Craig Kimbrel, Shelby Miller, Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis. In return, they signed Nick Markakis and collected a pile of prospects.

Blaming Fredi Gonzalez for leading this collection of Minor Leaguers and veteran castoffs to a losing record against a brutal early schedule (Nationals, Cardinals, Nationals, Marlins, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox) is akin to blaming Robert E. Lee for commanding the rebel armies to a two-year losing streak against superior Union forces.

What If They Keep Losing?
The question has been raised about what happens if the losing continues. At 7-20, the Braves are "on pace" -- the stupidest pair of words in baseball -- to go 42-120, tied with the '62 Mets for the most losses in a season. So?  If management hands Gonzalez a 100-loss team, what difference does it make if they lose 90 or 120?

Obviously the public knows little about the internal workings of the franchise. Perhaps Fredi is insubordinate, shiftless or apathetic. Perhaps he's regularly voicing his displeasure to management about the direction of the franchise. Firing might be in order.

Or maybe it's just an act of mercy, although there are a lot worse things than a million dollar paycheck and access to the ballpark all summer. The Braves lack star power, but the teams they lose to have players worth watching.

The talk, however, is solely about the team's performance, which was largely pre-ordained by the people who would ostensibly do the firing. And for this team, at this time, that is the dumbest reason to fire the manager.

Jake Arrieta Is Breaking Baseball

Jake Arrieta is baseball's Leicester City. The Foxes were within a hair's breath of being relegated from the English Premier League into the second division in 2015. One year later they stand as the lords of British football. Likewise, Arrieta was thrown to the scrap heap by the Orioles before dominating the NL last season like almost no one has ever done before him.

His mastery has continued unabated this season, to the tune of 6-0, 0.84. He has won a franchise record 17 consecutive decisions dating back to August 1 of last year, during which time he is 17-0 0.55.

He has made opposing batters his bitches.

Arrieta's supremacy over 25 starts has now reached historic levels. No one in history has cooked with more gas for this long. Bob Gibson set the ERA mark in 1968, but that was a season of MLB-wide record lows in virtually every batting category, including runs scored.

Every one of those 25 starts achieved quality start status except his next to last. Manager Joe Maddon pulled Arrieta after 5 1/3 innings with a 5-1 lead against the hapless Brewers. Arrieta blamed himself for chewing up 92 pitches.

So here's the tally for those 25 games: The National League has a .376 OPS against Arrieta. They've fanned 126 times and walked 26. He allows two-thirds of a baserunner per inning, about half the league average.

In other words, against Jake Arrieta, the average hitter, say Rockies' outfielder Charlie Blackmon, who otherwise enjoys a .797 OPS, hits like a pitcher. Reds starter David Dewitt Bailey sports a career mark of .158/.185/.178 for a .362 with six doubles and no homers in his 305 plate appearances. And they call him Homer. That's what the average Major League hitter looks like against Jake Arrieta.

There is one pitcher hitting a prodigious .820 OPS with three homers during that period. That would be Arrieta himself. In those 25 games, all of baseball has managed three homers off him. That's just wrong. He's not just humiliating opposing batters; he's beating up their pitching staffs too.

What I Wish I'd Already Written About The White Sox

A month ago, I mentioned how several apparently undistinguished teams tickled my fancy for 2016. That's not a prediction, just an observation that the elements exist for a surprising season.

In this column I mentioned the Miami Marlins, who at the time included a second baseman whose PR people had not yet cooked up a statement blaming a ghost for his positive steroid test.

I hadn't made my way back to the theme until now, by which time, alas, my next candidate had already started the campaign like a house on fire. At the risk of claiming to create a bandwagon that is already in transit, allow me to introduce you to your 2016 Chicago White Sox.

Minor Deals Can Add Up
The front office played small ball this off season, signing a handful of low-cost reclamation projects like Mat Latos, Alex Avila, Dioner Navarro, Jimmy Rollins and Austin Jackson. No one could have predicted any would deliver as Latos has already, but this strategy can sometimes produce life by a thousand cuts.

Then they traded for first-half phenom Todd Frazier to handle the hot corner and polymath Brett Lawrie to staff the keystone. Added to Melky Cabrera, slugger Jose Abreu and defensive whiz Adam Eaton, that could be a pretty potent lineup. If young outfielder Avisail Garcia scratches his potential, so much the better.

Rotation is the Wild Card
In the winter prior to last season, the Pale Hose inked a cabal of free agents, including pitchers David Robertson and Zach Duke.  With Chris Sale (left) playing the role of this generation's Randy Johnson Chicago has a solid anchor on the rotation. Add promising lefties Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon and some semblance of production from Latos, Duke, what's left of John Danks or someone else, the Sox could stymie opposing hitters enough to hand Robertson some save opportunities and stay in the mix in the uninspiring AL Central.

There isn't an algorithm alive today that can project the bench or the relief corps, or predict how well this contingent will avoid the strains, pains and automobiles that bedevil some contenders. But given what they have, it's definitely not a stretch to say the White Sox could be playing into October.

Word of the Day

I'm watching the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers in an ALDS rematch north of the border. After a go-ahead homer and two rifle throws from right field, one of which nailed a runner at the plate, we have a new word of the day.

Nomar Mazara. (I know, it's two words. Sue me.)

The 6'4", 215-pound Dominican is another brick in MLB's wall. He can't yet legally buy a beer.

Get used to hearing his name.

Early Season Quirks

Trevor Story is a rookie. He is a shortstop. Twenty-five games into the season he has out-homered Adrian Gonzalez (293 lifetime homers), Matt Holiday (278), Joey Votto (194), Ryan Zimmerman (201) and Jason Heyward (97). Combined.

Nolan Arrenado has hit twice as many home runs as . . .  the Atlanta Braves.

The Major League leader in batting average and slugging percentage is Aledmys Diaz. Yes, THE Aledmys Diaz. The rookie shortstop from Cuba is hitting .423 for the Cardinals.  See what warmer relations can do?

Dallas Keuchel last April: 3-0, 0.73. Dallas Keuchel this April: 2-3, 4.41.

Robinson Cano has slugged eight home runs in April. He didn't hit his eighth last year until July.  The year prior his eighth home run came in August.

Mat Latos, 2015 -- 4-10, 4.95 for three teams. Mat Latos, 2016 -- 4-0, 1.84 for the White Sox.

Through July of last year, the Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley was batting .125 with one homer, two triples and three RBIs. Through April 2016 he's hitting .273 with a homer, four triples and 13 RBI. He had more triples and RBIs in yesterday's romp over the Yankees than during the entire first half last season.

Jake Arrieta (5-0, 1.00) may be for real.

Dee Gordon is suspended for 80 games for using performance enhancing drugs. He has smashed eight home runs in more than 2000 plate appearances. Keep that in mind next time you profile someone as a steroid user.

Travis Shaw is hitting .314/.385/.500 and vacuuming up grounders at third base for the Boston Red Sox. He's the guy replacing Pablo Sandoval, who hit .245/.292/.366 before injuring himself tripping over his own belly last year. Sandoval subtracted from the Sox a win against replacement last season at a cost of $17.6 million. For less than the point-six of that, Shaw has already earned Boston more than a win this season, a 7.2 WAR pace. So the actual, rather than average or theoretical replacement value of the Kung Fu Panda is minus-8 wins and $17 million lost. If you prefer the glass half full, Shaw's actual value replacing Sandoval is 8 wins + $17 million.

Mike Moustakas has scored 11 runs and knocked in 11 runs. He's singularly accounted for seven of each with home runs. Those Royals teammates haven't helped him much.

The Marlins are hitting .267 and have scored 85 runs, a little more than three per game. The Cubs are hitting a mere .255. They've tallied 136 runs, a little more than five per game. Good old batting average.

Agonizing Over the Irrelevant

Coming into the 2016 season, common wisdom had the Phillies as an ongoing laughingstock and the Braves taking a short hiatus before returning to contention at their new stadium next year.

What I saw was a rebounding Philadelphia squad already populated by many of the young players who would rescue them from oblivion, and a Braves team utterly abandoned by its front office and left almost completely without Major League assets.

Not Peachy in Georgia

That's not a knock on the Braves front office, just an acknowledgement that they've stripped the roster of talent, forsaken a perfectly comfortable 20-year-old stadium, jilted downtown Atlanta for the suburbs and left a Triple-A team on the field.

Besides Nick Markakis, mysteriously signed to a free agent contract last year before losing all his power, and the young tandem of Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran, the latter of whom has scuffled early this season, there's not much big league talent. Management has its eye on 2017 or 2018, this year be damned.

Frankly Scarlet, They Don't Give A Damn
Which is why it's so sad to hear the Braves' broadcasts and talk to Braves fans. They suffer every loss, which have been legion; every opponent rally, which has flowed like honey; and every exhibition of ineptitude, which promises a spring, summer and fall of more torture. Still just April, the announcers are already running out of expressions of woe. It seems they aren't aware that this is just part of the plan and there isn't any purpose to agonizing over what doesn't even rattle the bosses. Frankly, Scarlet, they don't give a damn.

The Braves have plenty of talent down below and figure to be, at least, a representative team in the coming years. The Phillies, it appeared to me late last season and is now more evident, have a year or two head start. So really the only difference is that the antacid sales have moved south.

A No-Hitter Is Lucky. Two No-Hitters Is Filthy.

Fool me once; shame on you. Fool me twice; shame on me.

Jake Arrieta pitched his second no-hitter in nine regular season starts yesterday. It's often been said that a no-hitter is a lucky three-hitter. Many of them are lucky eight-hitters.

But two of them in so short a span? Does that mean something? Particularly in the context of Jake Arrieta, who, after an early career as Nino Espinosa, has, over the last nine months, morphed into Walter Johnson.

Since August 1 of last season, Arrieta is 15-0, 0.49 with 20 BB and 115 K. He's thrown 24 consecutive quality starts. Steven Strasburg is second in baseball -- with nine.

The answer, as you might have guessed, is that two no-hitters in consecutive seasons is the domain of the dominant. Other than Johnny Vander Meer's legendary back-to-back no-hitters, the list of pitchers with a pair in consecutive seasons looks like this:

Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Nolan Ryan, Steve Busby, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Max Scherzer and -- wait for it -- Homer Bailey.

Arrieta's accomplishment is shrouded in the fairy dust of good fortune, sure, but it was built on heat and command that flummoxed Reds batters. If a no-hitter is a lucky three-hitter, pitchers are more likely to achieve the feat if, like Arrieta, they can throw a lot of three-hitters.

Ray Charles Could See Why the NBA Playoffs Are So Dull

Following a six-month marathon, the NBA selects the very best 16 teams to compete in the post-season for a title. The competitiveness of these contests is demonstrated by the scores:

104-78
108-70
123-91
106-74
115-95
89-72
94-68
115-103

The average margin of victory in the first batch of face-offs -- 21 points.

Many hoops analysts are pulling their hair out over the snoozefest that is the first round. They are torturing themselves to explain this mysterious phenomenon. The answer is right under Jimmy Durante's nose.

Even Stevie Wonder can see why the games are such stultifying blowouts. Too many teams are allowed into the playoffs. The mediocre enter the postseason alongside the magnificent; indeed, they match up against them. Golden State is the greatest regular season team in NBA history. They are playing a dysfunctional Houston outfit that needed a late streak to reach .500. It's a mismatch.

Likewise San Antonio, with the game's seventh best record all time, pairing up with downtrodden Memphis, ravaged by injuries and limping down the stretch. It's a Major League team playing a Double-A team. It's not fair. It's not fun to watch. It doesn't tell us anything.

Helen Keller could have told you: the first round of NBA playoffs is rubbish. Eliminate half the qualifiers and all the mismatches. That would improve the playoffs and give the regular season some meaning.

Johnny Manziel could figure that out.

What Winless and Undefeated Starts Mean

Most baseball observers fit into one of two categories regarding the commencement of play -- their attention remains fixed on the NBA and NHL playoffs or they obsess about every defeat and victory.

April's games hold relatively little weight in a 162-game season, but they're not irrelevant. While it hardly matters that a team with low expectations leaves the gate 7-5 while a division favorite falls eight out of 13 times, early wins and losses do matter.

Take the Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins.

The Orioles burst from the starter's line with seven consecutive wins. Because it began the campaign, we tend to add significance to the accomplishment, but suppose the O's had instead won seven in a row at some point in July, would anyone be anointing them kings? Even bad teams occasionally go on a run.

And yet, the history of teams that break off seven straight to start a season is encouraging. While hot starts are no guarantees of making the playoffs, they almost universally presage a contender. A first unblemished week suggests the Orioles are to be reckoned with, especially in the AL East, where it doesn't appear that there is a roster that can separate itself from the pack. That's true even as they gave back three of the next four.

How about the reverse? The Braves and Twins are unburdened this year by expectations, except to anchor the standings in their respective divisions. Each team won three straight following an 0-9 start. Are they doomed or did they merely stumble?

In short: the news is worse. It takes a bad team to lose nine straight in early April. History is littered with 100-loss teams who kicked off 0-9. Indeed, the last such squad was the 2003 Detroit Tigers, who lost another 110 times and won just 43.

And given that the rosters in Minnesota and Atlanta weren't sparking much enthusiasm to begin with, it's probably a sign of things to come. The three straight wins since aren't much salve for that.

My New Hero: Dave Roberts

Until this week, Dave Roberts was best known as the light-hitting outfielder whose stolen base in Game 4 of the ALCS against the Yankees ignited the Red Sox' unprecedented comeback from a three-games-to-none deficit.

In his entire career, the former UCLA Bruin swiped more bases (243) than runs he drove in (213). He also walked enough to boost his OBP percentage 86 points above his batting average and make himself an asset during a 10-year career.

Which is the long way of saying Roberts was a smart player. And now that he's managing the Dodgers, he's demonstrated the thinking box is ticking.

On Friday, at the end of his first week skippering Vin Scully's team, Roberts did the unthinkable -- he yanked a pitcher at the precipice of history with one out in the eighth.

Rookie hurler Ross Stripling, five outs from a no-hitter in his debut, surrendered his fourth walk on his 100th pitch.

Roberts went to the pen citing the high pitch count and Stripling's history of arm ailments, including TJ surgery.

How did it work out? Reliever Chris Hatcher coughed up the tying homer to the first batter he faced and the Giants went on to a 3-2 win over their arch-rivals. It could not have looked worse for Roberts.

Not only was it the right move, Roberts expressed satisfaction in the decision, if not the outcome. He has a much longer time horizon than one game, and a shorter one than immortality.

Even Stripling, a stockbroker in the off-season, endorsed the decision.

All of which bodes well for the NL West favorites. It sounds as if they have a cerebral and decisive helmsman and a beneficial culture in the clubhouse. That and Clayton Kershaw can take them a long way this year.

The Decade of Diaper Dandies

For perspective on just how fat with young talent Major League Baseball is today, may we present to you one Dansby Swanson.

Arizona selected the Vanderbilt shortstop with the first pick of the 2015 draft. Swanson has done nothing to undermine that status during his brief stint in the Minors. Atlanta was over the moon about snagging him in a deal for Shelby Miller this past off-season and he is expected to anchor the Braves' infield into the 2020s.

Dansby Swanson is just the 69th best Major League prospect under 25 according to Baseball Prospectus.

That's no knock on Swanson. BP thinks the world of him. It's just that there are 68 other guys whose early profile suggests even more potential than him.

Take Twins shortstop Francisco Lindor. At age 21 he produced 3.3 wins in 99 games in 2015 while impressing with the leather. And he's just the 14th best prospect in MLB.

Or consider Addison Russell at #20. The Cubs rookie shortstop supplanted Starlin Castro last year and produced about two wins, or what an average starter contributes.  But not an average 21-year-old starter. In most years, Russell might have contended for the Rookie of the Year award. He didn't get even a single third place vote. And there are 19 prospects under 25 deemed better than him.

Kevin Kiermaier earned five wins for the Rays last season, mostly with his all-world glove. Now in his third stint through the league, his exploits with the leather in center field make him a Web Gem hog and the subject of Sports Illustrated features. And BP rates 55 young prospects ahead of him.

Trevor Rosenthal's not shedding any tears for Kiermaier. He's saved 93 games the last two spins around the sun, but because he's the ripe old age of 25, he's rated just 87th.

Consider that every one of these guys is already in the Majors. Almost all of the best under-25 prospects have already debuted in the Bigs, and most of them have drained their rookie status.

Consider also that this doesn't account for the phenoms at the top. Describing MIke Trout and Bryce Harper at this point amounts to gilding a lily, but the next group of players include Carlos Correa, a shortstop who smacked 22 dingers as an age-20 rookie; Manny Machado, already an 18-win third baseman; Gerrit Cole, the ace of the Pirates staff; Jose Fernandez, a Rookie of the Year who's back strong from TJ surgery; Nolan Arenado, a slick-fielding cornerman who led the Majors in 2015 with 42 home runs; and other young stars including Corey Seager, Mookie Betts, Xander Boegarts, Kris Bryant, Jose Altuve, Miguel Sano, Noah Syndergaard, Anthony Rendon and Yasiel Puig. What a haul.

That grouping could contain half a dozen Hall of Famers when it's all over but the shouting. But you won't hear the shouting for a long time because they're all younger than my marriage.

So here's the takeaway: forget all the bellyaching you hear about the game. It's a great time to be a baseball fan.

Meet the Mets

The Mets won 90 games and the NL East last year, and rode a magic carpet to the World Series. Wilmer Flores even won our hearts with his tears.

The franchise re-signed Yoenis Cespedes, replaced Daniel Murphy with Neil Walker, and looks forward to full seasons from Michael Conforto, Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard. Yowzah, right?

So say most analysts, who've tabbed the Mets as favorites in the striated NL East.

Well. You might want to hold off on ordering those playoff tickets.

The Metropolitans are certainly an enticing squad, particularly on the hill. They should have high expectations. But before you Bobby Valentine all over yourself, let's consider the following:

1. They couldn't hit a lick last year and they have basically the same lineup. Cespedes injected a spark over the last 57 games, but he's not slugging .600 over a full season this year. Their offense has to be giving Terry Collins heartburn.
2. Cespedes is slated to handle center this season, for which he is clearly not equipped. That's a big drop off from Gold Glover Juan Lagares.
3. The Dark Knight is a health risk, having endured TJ surgery in 2014.
4. Zack Wheeler might be back mid-season. I might learn Sanskrit this year.
5. Thor and Steven Matz have yet to pass through the danger zone for pitchers. Research shows that hurlers are most likely to suffer serious injury before age 27; surviving that is evidence of the skill of health.
6.  Matz, upon whom one-quarter of high hopes rest, has made all of six Major League starts. They were potent performances, but this is the franchise of Isringhausen, Pulsipher and Wilson.
7. The Nationals made the bookies look like fanboys last season. Maybe they were just conserving their wins for this year.
8. Last year the Mets were upstarts. This year they are favorites. Let's see how they respond.
9. It's baseball: you just never know.

Can the Mets win the division this year? Sure, but so can the Nats and even the Marlins. Without big bats, the boys from Flushing have less margin for error than most partisans recognize.

Arson in the Rangers Bullpen

On the heels of Tom Wilhelmsen's self-immolation Tuesday came Shawn Tolleson's contribution Wednesday.

If this keeps up, you'll want to tune into the late innings of every Texas game.

On Tuesday, Wilhelmsen entered with a 4-2 deficit and quickly converted in into a 9-2 blowout. At least he didn't wear his arm out: only 12 throws.

On Wednesday, Tolleson climbed the mound in the ninth to close out a 5-4 win. He fired 14 pitches to five batters. Single. Single. Double. Single. Home run by Robinson Cano.

Have a seat, son.

Seattle's odds of winning the game leaped from 14% at the start of the frame to 99% when Tolleson departed.

The two relievers have combined for 26 pitches to 10 batters. All 10 have scored. They have not recorded an out. They have faced Cano twice and have kept him under 500 feet twice. But barely.

This could be fun.

Oh Yeah, There's Also Manny Machado

If this were any other time, that is any time that weren't the time of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, it would be the time of Manny Machado.

We would be writing paeans to Machado, who left the yard 32 times last season, swiped 20 bags, made the All-Star team, earned MVP votes, sucked up everything at the hot corner and turned all of 23 years old.

Of course, most of that wasn't new. He's been a vacuum cleaner at third for a trio of campaigns. He's made two All-Star squads, earned MVP votes after two seasons and led baseball in doubles his freshman year, at age 20.

He's contributed almost 18 WAR already, entering his fourth season. For perspective, that's the career WAR of Gorman Thomas, who slugged 30+ homers five times in his 13-year career. (Okay, no it's not. Thomas piled up another 1.7 WAR after his long stint with the Brewers, putting him two WAR ahead of Machado. So just wait an hour and come back so that Manny has time to catch up.)

Machado could become the greatest third baseman in Baltimore history, which is saying something when the incumbent in the position is not just a Hall of Famer, but generally regarded as the greatest defensive third baseman of all time.

The point is, we have this guy playing baseball right now who is a five-tool superstar just barely old enough to buy a beer. And we never talk about him because it's the time of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.

Congratulations, Tom Wilhelmsen!

Congratulations to Tom Wilhelmsen, the Texas reliever.

Facing his former Seattle mates, Wilhelmsen got one pitch into the 2016 season before his ERA went from zero to infinity. Robinson Cano took him deep.

And I don't mean clear-the-wall deep. I mean mid-pitch, Cano turned to the crowd and gave it a look that said, "Are you kidding me?" then turned back towards the ball in flight and gleefully yanked it into another zip code.

Three batters later, it was four times infinity, as Wilhelmsen yielded two doubles and another jack, this one to Seth Smith. 

Then, with the score 8-2, he nailed Chris Iannetta in the knee, and was offered a seat in the dugout by the umpire. Luis Sardinas took his reliever yard and scored Wilhelmsen's final batter.

So with 12 pitches under his belt, Tom Wilhelmsen has an ERA of infinity times five. He'll have to retire 15 batters without a score just to reduce his ERA to 9.00. That's a tall order for a guy who throws one frame at a time.

This is a guy who, in 267 career appearances sports a 2.97 ERA. 

Maybe we ought to be congratulating the Mariners.

A Beautiful Sighting

Wait, is that a box score?

Hey, it's not just one. They're all over the place.

It's BASEBALL!!!

I love April.

The Most Intriguing Team of 2016:

"Second place is just first place loser." -- Dale Earnhart, whose sport has no wild card.

Save for maybe the Rockies, Braves and Phillies, a case could be made for every team in baseball this season before the first pitch is thrown in anger. You'd want odds if you were betting the Reds or the A's, but the even the single zero comes up once every 37 times on a roulette wheel.

If you listen to most ad hoc prognosticators, you generally hear a list of last season's playoff teams, salted with an occasional upstart. The most popular choices for a 2016 insurgent are the Giants (it's an even year), the Red Sox (big acquisitions + bouncebacks), the Diamondbacks (biggest free agent signing) and the Indians (weak division + strong run suppression.)

Those teams are all interesting, to be sure, though I don't put much stock in Arizona. But the teams that intrigue me most are currently slated for trade deadline selling.

Let's take a look at one of them.

Consider this squad:
Their centerfielder is a kid with pop and mad defensive skills.
Their leftfielder is a kid with pop, on-base proficiency and good leather.
Their veteran rightfielder is the game's most fearsome slugger. He's 26.
Their second baseman is a base thieving .300-hitter. The old man is 27.
Their shortstop is a second-year highlight reel who has an idea with the bat.
Their second-year backstop could be one of the five best-hitting catchers in the game.
They have the best young pitcher in baseball.
They picked up a wiley veteran arm to complement the phenom.
Their farm is stacked and might bubble up a couple of contributors.
Their manager has won division titles and is a beloved ex-player.
They get to beat up on two of the sport's worst teams, who reside in their division.

This is your Miami Marlins.

Sure, their rotation is a little thin, but there is so much potential here. Everyone in baseball would like to start a team with Marcel Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon, Adeiny Hecchavaria, J.T. Realmuto and Jose Fernandez, not one of whom is four touchdowns old.

With Don Mattingly's quiet intensity at the helm, it will be very interesting to see what this team can do. If only the city of Miami cared.

Hall of Famers Playing Today

Last season I mentioned in this space that there were only three surefire Hall of Famers playing the game today -- Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki.

It's important to keep in mind that Alex Rodriguez : HOF :: Albert Einstein : high school science fair, but many voters will never cast their ballot for an admitted steroid user.

That there is only a triad of definitive bust-worthies on the field doesn't mean that 2016 won't be as well represented in Cooperstown as any other year. There are many players who are on their way; we just can't yet be sure which of the many candidates will ultimately pan out. Let's take a look:

Adrian Beltre
Current WAR = 84   Age = 36

If you believe the defensive metrics, which say that Beltre is one of the 10 most valuable defensive players of all time, he's a certain HOFer.  If you're skeptical, he's a borderline case. The arc of his career is unusual: six of his seven best seasons have come since age 31. Estimated odds: 75%





David Ortiz

Current WAR = 50   Age = 39
Simply on paper, this is not the curriculum vitae of a HOFer. But a high career peak, demonstrated leadership, World Series heroics and repeated clutch play will get Big Papi into the Hall. Estimated odds: 90%.


Carlos Beltran
Current WAR = 68   Age = 38

The opposite of the first two: Beltran's accumulation of WAR has been slow and steady. The lack of a ring, big home run or batting average numbers, a charismatic personality or signature skill, and a borderline case for the Hall could keep him out, especially because his career appears to be over.  Estimated odds: 33%.




Felix Hernandez
Current WAR = 50   Age = 29
Suffered his worst season in 2015 since age 22 -- and finished seventh in Cy Young balloting. The usual pitcher caveats apply, as his top comparables at age 29 include Vida Blue, Dwight Gooden, Larry Dierker and Fernando Valenzuela . Estimated odds: 40%. (That's not a knock; 40% odds for a pitcher at age 29 is stupendous.)

Clayton Kershaw
Current WAR = 49   Age = 27

If he were an everyday player with these credentials at this age folks in Cooperstown would be chiseling his likeness now for his inevitable induction. His top nine comparables at age 27 include six Hall of Fame-level hurlers -- Seaver, Pedro, Clemens, Palmer, Marichal and Carlton. Pitchers are an enigma but he's the closest thing to certainty. Estimated odds: 75%.




Buster Posey
Current WAR = 29   Age = 29
It's hard to believe that Posey is the same age as King Felix with less than 60% of the WAR. Entering his sixth full season, Posey's HOF case would seem to rest on remaining behind the plate, something the Giants seem intent on preserving -- paradoxically -- by stationing him at first and DH 45 times last season. Joe Mauer serves as a cautionary tale. Estimated odds: 50%

Robinson Cano
Current WAR = 55   Age = 33

Keystone is the least honored position in the Hall, but if past honorees are any guide, Cano is just a few average seasons away from deserving a bust. A couple more five-win campaigns, of which he is eminently capable, puts him in. Estimated odds: 65%.





Zack Greinke
Current WAR = 52   Age = 31
Began his career 21-35, 4.63.  Since leaving KC in 2011 he's 82-26, 2.82. Another five years of that gets him in, of course, but the clock is ticking and there isn't much room for error. Estimated odds: 30%.

Craig Kimbrel
Current WAR = 13   Age = 28

WAR means as much to relief pitchers as to Buddhist monks. Kimbrel was the best reliever in baseball his first four seasons and merely excellent last year. If he reverts to his original form for a few more seasons he's a shoo-in. It will take a full career of last year's performance to make the case. Estimated odds: 35%.

 


Dustin Pedroia
Current WAR = 45   Age = 33
Cano minus 10 wins + a dirty uniform - 121 home runs + an MVP, ROY and four Gold Gloves. He has to stay on the field to have any chance but he's missed 92 games the last two seasons. Estimated odds: 20%.

Joey Votto
Current WAR = 43   Age = 31

First basemen who don't pound homers aren't usually the apple of voters' eyes, but voters' eyesight has been improving in recent years. Votto hits for average, gets on base and fields the position well -- today's Jeff Bagwell without the baserunning. However, he has old player skills that tend to decline precipitously, so his candidacy will be determined by how gracefully he ages. Estimated odds: 33%.



Chase Utley
Current WAR = 63 Age = 37
Utley appears to have run out of gas at the top of Glimmerglass Lake, just short of Cooperstown. He needs to rediscover two more years of mojo for the call. Estimated odds: 20%.

Brian McCann/Russell Martin/Yadier Molina
None is quite on the Hall of Fame track today, but new research on catcher framing and blocking suggests we are underestimating their value. If those revelations are confirmed by further research, we might find ourselves re-evaluating their careers. There's no way to estimate those odds.

Mike Trout/Bryce Harper/Manny Machado and their ilk
They're surefire Hall of Famers, just like other fast starters: Nomar Garciaparra, Al Rosen, Miguel Tejada, George Foster, Denny McClain and Eric Davis. There are so many greats in their formative years today that some of them are sure to earn enshrinement.  Exactly who, now that's the question. That said, it's difficult at this stage to conceive of Trout and Harper failing to achieve all-time greatness.

Anyone else
Someone who isn't a relative newbie and doesn't have Hall credentials is going to defy the normal aging trajectory and sneak into the conversation with a late-career Renaissance. Maybe it's David Price (29 WAR) or Nelson Cruz (22 WAR)?