Hall of Famers Playing Today

Last season I mentioned in this space that there were only three surefire Hall of Famers playing the game today -- Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki.

It's important to keep in mind that Alex Rodriguez : HOF :: Albert Einstein : high school science fair, but many voters will never cast their ballot for an admitted steroid user.

That there is only a triad of definitive bust-worthies on the field doesn't mean that 2016 won't be as well represented in Cooperstown as any other year. There are many players who are on their way; we just can't yet be sure which of the many candidates will ultimately pan out. Let's take a look:

Adrian Beltre
Current WAR = 84   Age = 36

If you believe the defensive metrics, which say that Beltre is one of the 10 most valuable defensive players of all time, he's a certain HOFer.  If you're skeptical, he's a borderline case. The arc of his career is unusual: six of his seven best seasons have come since age 31. Estimated odds: 75%





David Ortiz

Current WAR = 50   Age = 39
Simply on paper, this is not the curriculum vitae of a HOFer. But a high career peak, demonstrated leadership, World Series heroics and repeated clutch play will get Big Papi into the Hall. Estimated odds: 90%.


Carlos Beltran
Current WAR = 68   Age = 38

The opposite of the first two: Beltran's accumulation of WAR has been slow and steady. The lack of a ring, big home run or batting average numbers, a charismatic personality or signature skill, and a borderline case for the Hall could keep him out, especially because his career appears to be over.  Estimated odds: 33%.




Felix Hernandez
Current WAR = 50   Age = 29
Suffered his worst season in 2015 since age 22 -- and finished seventh in Cy Young balloting. The usual pitcher caveats apply, as his top comparables at age 29 include Vida Blue, Dwight Gooden, Larry Dierker and Fernando Valenzuela . Estimated odds: 40%. (That's not a knock; 40% odds for a pitcher at age 29 is stupendous.)

Clayton Kershaw
Current WAR = 49   Age = 27

If he were an everyday player with these credentials at this age folks in Cooperstown would be chiseling his likeness now for his inevitable induction. His top nine comparables at age 27 include six Hall of Fame-level hurlers -- Seaver, Pedro, Clemens, Palmer, Marichal and Carlton. Pitchers are an enigma but he's the closest thing to certainty. Estimated odds: 75%.




Buster Posey
Current WAR = 29   Age = 29
It's hard to believe that Posey is the same age as King Felix with less than 60% of the WAR. Entering his sixth full season, Posey's HOF case would seem to rest on remaining behind the plate, something the Giants seem intent on preserving -- paradoxically -- by stationing him at first and DH 45 times last season. Joe Mauer serves as a cautionary tale. Estimated odds: 50%

Robinson Cano
Current WAR = 55   Age = 33

Keystone is the least honored position in the Hall, but if past honorees are any guide, Cano is just a few average seasons away from deserving a bust. A couple more five-win campaigns, of which he is eminently capable, puts him in. Estimated odds: 65%.





Zack Greinke
Current WAR = 52   Age = 31
Began his career 21-35, 4.63.  Since leaving KC in 2011 he's 82-26, 2.82. Another five years of that gets him in, of course, but the clock is ticking and there isn't much room for error. Estimated odds: 30%.

Craig Kimbrel
Current WAR = 13   Age = 28

WAR means as much to relief pitchers as to Buddhist monks. Kimbrel was the best reliever in baseball his first four seasons and merely excellent last year. If he reverts to his original form for a few more seasons he's a shoo-in. It will take a full career of last year's performance to make the case. Estimated odds: 35%.

 


Dustin Pedroia
Current WAR = 45   Age = 33
Cano minus 10 wins + a dirty uniform - 121 home runs + an MVP, ROY and four Gold Gloves. He has to stay on the field to have any chance but he's missed 92 games the last two seasons. Estimated odds: 20%.

Joey Votto
Current WAR = 43   Age = 31

First basemen who don't pound homers aren't usually the apple of voters' eyes, but voters' eyesight has been improving in recent years. Votto hits for average, gets on base and fields the position well -- today's Jeff Bagwell without the baserunning. However, he has old player skills that tend to decline precipitously, so his candidacy will be determined by how gracefully he ages. Estimated odds: 33%.



Chase Utley
Current WAR = 63 Age = 37
Utley appears to have run out of gas at the top of Glimmerglass Lake, just short of Cooperstown. He needs to rediscover two more years of mojo for the call. Estimated odds: 20%.

Brian McCann/Russell Martin/Yadier Molina
None is quite on the Hall of Fame track today, but new research on catcher framing and blocking suggests we are underestimating their value. If those revelations are confirmed by further research, we might find ourselves re-evaluating their careers. There's no way to estimate those odds.

Mike Trout/Bryce Harper/Manny Machado and their ilk
They're surefire Hall of Famers, just like other fast starters: Nomar Garciaparra, Al Rosen, Miguel Tejada, George Foster, Denny McClain and Eric Davis. There are so many greats in their formative years today that some of them are sure to earn enshrinement.  Exactly who, now that's the question. That said, it's difficult at this stage to conceive of Trout and Harper failing to achieve all-time greatness.

Anyone else
Someone who isn't a relative newbie and doesn't have Hall credentials is going to defy the normal aging trajectory and sneak into the conversation with a late-career Renaissance. Maybe it's David Price (29 WAR) or Nelson Cruz (22 WAR)?