The Decade of Diaper Dandies

For perspective on just how fat with young talent Major League Baseball is today, may we present to you one Dansby Swanson.

Arizona selected the Vanderbilt shortstop with the first pick of the 2015 draft. Swanson has done nothing to undermine that status during his brief stint in the Minors. Atlanta was over the moon about snagging him in a deal for Shelby Miller this past off-season and he is expected to anchor the Braves' infield into the 2020s.

Dansby Swanson is just the 69th best Major League prospect under 25 according to Baseball Prospectus.

That's no knock on Swanson. BP thinks the world of him. It's just that there are 68 other guys whose early profile suggests even more potential than him.

Take Twins shortstop Francisco Lindor. At age 21 he produced 3.3 wins in 99 games in 2015 while impressing with the leather. And he's just the 14th best prospect in MLB.

Or consider Addison Russell at #20. The Cubs rookie shortstop supplanted Starlin Castro last year and produced about two wins, or what an average starter contributes.  But not an average 21-year-old starter. In most years, Russell might have contended for the Rookie of the Year award. He didn't get even a single third place vote. And there are 19 prospects under 25 deemed better than him.

Kevin Kiermaier earned five wins for the Rays last season, mostly with his all-world glove. Now in his third stint through the league, his exploits with the leather in center field make him a Web Gem hog and the subject of Sports Illustrated features. And BP rates 55 young prospects ahead of him.

Trevor Rosenthal's not shedding any tears for Kiermaier. He's saved 93 games the last two spins around the sun, but because he's the ripe old age of 25, he's rated just 87th.

Consider that every one of these guys is already in the Majors. Almost all of the best under-25 prospects have already debuted in the Bigs, and most of them have drained their rookie status.

Consider also that this doesn't account for the phenoms at the top. Describing MIke Trout and Bryce Harper at this point amounts to gilding a lily, but the next group of players include Carlos Correa, a shortstop who smacked 22 dingers as an age-20 rookie; Manny Machado, already an 18-win third baseman; Gerrit Cole, the ace of the Pirates staff; Jose Fernandez, a Rookie of the Year who's back strong from TJ surgery; Nolan Arenado, a slick-fielding cornerman who led the Majors in 2015 with 42 home runs; and other young stars including Corey Seager, Mookie Betts, Xander Boegarts, Kris Bryant, Jose Altuve, Miguel Sano, Noah Syndergaard, Anthony Rendon and Yasiel Puig. What a haul.

That grouping could contain half a dozen Hall of Famers when it's all over but the shouting. But you won't hear the shouting for a long time because they're all younger than my marriage.

So here's the takeaway: forget all the bellyaching you hear about the game. It's a great time to be a baseball fan.

The Cubs in the Playoffs? Get Over It

If hope springs eternal, it springs relentlessly in Chicago, especially in the Spring. And not since 2008, coming off a roaring 97-win season, has hope taken residence so distant from reality.

Over the last five years, the baby bears have averaged 93 losses and a fifth place NL Central finish while they weaned their young on the farm. Discerning observers could see a plan in action and wisely counseled patience, which began to pay off last season.

In their fourth seasons, Anthony Rizzo bloomed to a 10th place MVP placement. Jake Arietta shoved a 2.51 ERA down NL throats by fanning a batter-plus an inning and hardly walking any.  And flashy shortstop Starlin Castro recovered his hitting shoes. Rookie Kyle Hendrick bamboozled NL hitters to a 2.46 ERA in 13 starts. Journeyman Hector Rondon shook off elbow woes to claim the closer position with authority. And mega-prospects Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Jorge Soler and Addison Russell were knocking on the door. So when management indicated rebuilding's end by enticing Jon Lester to deal aces and Dexter Fowler to patrol center, Chi-town hearts started fluttering.  PECOTA forecasts them for 85 wins and many pundits have them snagging a Wild Card, or even a division.

And because everyone loves the Cubs, largely because no one has had to fear them since 1908, the bandwagon has grown.

But as the great philosopher, Quick Draw McGraw, used to say, "Now hoooooold on thar, Baba Looey!"

The Cubs are still on the right path and their time might indeed be nigh. But nigh is at low tide, not yet high. They're coming off an 89-loss season despite those lofty positives. Several of last year's performances were career outliers and will require confirmation before we can trust them. The rotation is thin after the first five and the bench is bare after Tommy LaStella and some catching depth. The big call-ups, like Soler, could flame out just as easily as they could catch fire. Teams relying on big years from freshmen are playing with fire themselves.

The Cubs will be improved, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. A couple of the veterans won't live up to billing. Some of the newbies won't even make the show. (There's a reason clubs send uber-prospects back to Triple-AAA , and it's almost never to save a few rubles.) The roster is still shallow and the learning curve is steep.

Cub fans, enjoy this one, but wait 'til next year.