What Winless and Undefeated Starts Mean

Most baseball observers fit into one of two categories regarding the commencement of play -- their attention remains fixed on the NBA and NHL playoffs or they obsess about every defeat and victory.

April's games hold relatively little weight in a 162-game season, but they're not irrelevant. While it hardly matters that a team with low expectations leaves the gate 7-5 while a division favorite falls eight out of 13 times, early wins and losses do matter.

Take the Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins.

The Orioles burst from the starter's line with seven consecutive wins. Because it began the campaign, we tend to add significance to the accomplishment, but suppose the O's had instead won seven in a row at some point in July, would anyone be anointing them kings? Even bad teams occasionally go on a run.

And yet, the history of teams that break off seven straight to start a season is encouraging. While hot starts are no guarantees of making the playoffs, they almost universally presage a contender. A first unblemished week suggests the Orioles are to be reckoned with, especially in the AL East, where it doesn't appear that there is a roster that can separate itself from the pack. That's true even as they gave back three of the next four.

How about the reverse? The Braves and Twins are unburdened this year by expectations, except to anchor the standings in their respective divisions. Each team won three straight following an 0-9 start. Are they doomed or did they merely stumble?

In short: the news is worse. It takes a bad team to lose nine straight in early April. History is littered with 100-loss teams who kicked off 0-9. Indeed, the last such squad was the 2003 Detroit Tigers, who lost another 110 times and won just 43.

And given that the rosters in Minnesota and Atlanta weren't sparking much enthusiasm to begin with, it's probably a sign of things to come. The three straight wins since aren't much salve for that.