Agonizing Over the Irrelevant

Coming into the 2016 season, common wisdom had the Phillies as an ongoing laughingstock and the Braves taking a short hiatus before returning to contention at their new stadium next year.

What I saw was a rebounding Philadelphia squad already populated by many of the young players who would rescue them from oblivion, and a Braves team utterly abandoned by its front office and left almost completely without Major League assets.

Not Peachy in Georgia

That's not a knock on the Braves front office, just an acknowledgement that they've stripped the roster of talent, forsaken a perfectly comfortable 20-year-old stadium, jilted downtown Atlanta for the suburbs and left a Triple-A team on the field.

Besides Nick Markakis, mysteriously signed to a free agent contract last year before losing all his power, and the young tandem of Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran, the latter of whom has scuffled early this season, there's not much big league talent. Management has its eye on 2017 or 2018, this year be damned.

Frankly Scarlet, They Don't Give A Damn
Which is why it's so sad to hear the Braves' broadcasts and talk to Braves fans. They suffer every loss, which have been legion; every opponent rally, which has flowed like honey; and every exhibition of ineptitude, which promises a spring, summer and fall of more torture. Still just April, the announcers are already running out of expressions of woe. It seems they aren't aware that this is just part of the plan and there isn't any purpose to agonizing over what doesn't even rattle the bosses. Frankly, Scarlet, they don't give a damn.

The Braves have plenty of talent down below and figure to be, at least, a representative team in the coming years. The Phillies, it appeared to me late last season and is now more evident, have a year or two head start. So really the only difference is that the antacid sales have moved south.

It Can Only Get Better In the Land of Cheese Steaks

You're going to see a lot of prognosticators assume the renovating Phillies will hold up the division in the 2016 standings after their MLB-worst 99 losses in 2015. But low expectations being the key to happiness, the scarred Philadelphia sports fan may be in for some joy.

Consider what the team paraded out for a starting rotation last year absent the now-departed Cole Hamels :

Three quarters of the team's starts made in 2015 (number of starts in parentheses):
*Aaron Harang (29) 4.86 ERA
*Jerome Williams (21) — 6.13 ERA as a starter
David Buchanan (15) — 6.99 ERA
Adam Morgan (15) 4.48 ERA
*Sean O’Sullivan (13) — 6.08 ERA
*Chad Billingsley (7) — 5.84 ERA
Severino Gonzalez (7) — 7.92 ERA
Alec Asher (7) — 9.31 ERA
*Kevin Correia (5) — 6.56 ERA
*Phillipe Aumont (1) — 13.50 ERA
*Dustin McGowan (1) — 10.80 ERA as starter

*Justin De Fratus (5.51) led the team in relief innings pitched.

Can they possibly soil themselves so badly in 2016? Sure. The steadying influence of Hamels is gone and Aaron Nola (6-2, 3.59) could stumble in his sophomore campaign. But everyone with a star before his name is gone; in their slots are replacement-level veteran Charlie Morton, middling rotation piece Jeremy Helickson, and many more innings for promising second-year hurlers Nola, Alec Asher and Jerad Eickhoff (3-3, 2.65 in eight starts).

NL foes may not quake in their cleats, but the results can hardly get worse. One positive surprise and Philadelphia is challenging Miami for third place in the East.

Likewise the lineup. The leading run scorer in 2015 was shortstop Feddy Galvis, who crossed the plate 63 times. Four of the Phillies' eight most frequent starters produced OBP below .300.

Besides flipping field managers, the added seasoning for Galvis, good-looking keystoner Maikel Franco, promising outfielders Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr, and the signing of defensive outfielder Peter Bourjos could pump life into the moribund franchise. It's not Murderers Row but it figures to provide some support for the pitchers.

On defense, moving out human statue Ryan Howard permanently from first will help, as will Bourjos and more innings for Herrera. The bench is actually a strength, as the Phils refuse to part with semi-failed former prospects like Cody Asche and Dom Brown.

In a place where the hockey team clings tenaciously to the formula that won the Stanley Cup just 37 years ago and the basketball team's tanking now enters its graduate studies, a 75-win baseball team or emergence from the cellar would be cause for celebration.

Go ahead and buy the noisemakers.

It Gets Late Early Around Here

The talk is already starting.

The Rockies (12-19) are  already in the basement, despite a hot start. The Phillies (13-23) claimed their rightful place almost immediately. The Brewers (12-23, 12.5 games out) have the worst record in baseball and the most ground to make up.

So who are they trading?

This is crazy talk, right?

In a word, no.

It's not like we're writing off the Indians or A's, whose early season performances have been similarly distressing. Colorado, Milwaukee and Philadelphia are simply ratifying their woebegone expectations.

All three teams employ aging, overpaid stars who will not be contributors by the time the rosters might conceivably inspire dreams of contention. The faster they convert what's left of those assets into prospects, the less the transition will hurt.

Take the Phillies. Please. By waiting to trade him, the returns on Chase Utley have cratered. In March he was an aging second baseman with some speed, defense and on-base skills. By May he's a decrepit has-been batting .118 and fumbling afield with utterly no trade value.

Ryan Howard has at least socked seven homers to go with his .293 OBP. But with his inability to move laterally or avoid the training table, he's already a $25 million sunk cost.

Still, Cole Hamels, Aaron Harang and Jonathan Papelbon might fetch something around the trade deadline. There's not much point in keeping any of them, particularly not Pop, whose whining, when mixed with a 100-loss season, is a recipe for indigestion.

In Denver, speculating upon Troy Tulowitzki's  next uniform is a favorite activity, along with ski jumping and mountain climbing. Tulo is only 30 and remains a great player during those fleeting interludes between DL stints, but he's signed for $100 million for the next five years (including this one). They need to flip him before his value divots, knowing that whatever the Rocks get for him will be tempered by injury fears.

The only other Colorado teammates over 30 of any note are catcher Nick Hundley and reliever John Axford. Ax might appeal to a contender with an ugly bullpen but there's not much of a market for a backstop worth six wins in eight years -- three of them in 2011.

The Brewers are suds of a different color. Most of their players exude the bloom of youth and the joy of skills. Two of their stars -- catcher Jonathan Lucroy and shortstop Jean Segura -- are on the shelf with injuries. With their return and the addition of one top starter Milwaukee could play meaningful September baseball. They might ultimately be buyers, not sellers.

If they had to unload, the best candidates are: Adam Lind, now producing his third consecutive TAv above .300 and at 31, signed for just one more season; Matt Garza, a 31-year-old third starter with three more years on his contract; and Kyle Lohse, another third starter entering free agency. 

But I don't see any of that. Not only will brass need more convincing that they can't contend, they just picked up Lind and Garza in the last year, so bouncing them would amount to admissions of defeat. Unlike Philly and Colorado, the Brewers might be wise to ride out the wave.

On the flip side, there are the Astros and Yankees. Neither should print playoff tickets just yet...