Trevor Story is a rookie. He is a shortstop. Twenty-five games into the season he has out-homered Adrian Gonzalez (293 lifetime homers), Matt Holiday (278), Joey Votto (194), Ryan Zimmerman (201) and Jason Heyward (97). Combined.
Nolan Arrenado has hit twice as many home runs as . . . the Atlanta Braves.
The Major League leader in batting average and slugging percentage is Aledmys Diaz. Yes, THE Aledmys Diaz. The rookie shortstop from Cuba is hitting .423 for the Cardinals. See what warmer relations can do?
Dallas Keuchel last April: 3-0, 0.73. Dallas Keuchel this April: 2-3, 4.41.
Robinson Cano has slugged eight home runs in April. He didn't hit his eighth last year until July. The year prior his eighth home run came in August.
Mat Latos, 2015 -- 4-10, 4.95 for three teams. Mat Latos, 2016 -- 4-0, 1.84 for the White Sox.
Through July of last year, the Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley was batting .125 with one homer, two triples and three RBIs. Through April 2016 he's hitting .273 with a homer, four triples and 13 RBI. He had more triples and RBIs in yesterday's romp over the Yankees than during the entire first half last season.
Jake Arrieta (5-0, 1.00) may be for real.
Dee Gordon is suspended for 80 games for using performance enhancing drugs. He has smashed eight home runs in more than 2000 plate appearances. Keep that in mind next time you profile someone as a steroid user.
Travis Shaw is hitting .314/.385/.500 and vacuuming up grounders at third base for the Boston Red Sox. He's the guy replacing Pablo Sandoval, who hit .245/.292/.366 before injuring himself tripping over his own belly last year. Sandoval subtracted from the Sox a win against replacement last season at a cost of $17.6 million. For less than the point-six of that, Shaw has already earned Boston more than a win this season, a 7.2 WAR pace. So the actual, rather than average or theoretical replacement value of the Kung Fu Panda is minus-8 wins and $17 million lost. If you prefer the glass half full, Shaw's actual value replacing Sandoval is 8 wins + $17 million.
Mike Moustakas has scored 11 runs and knocked in 11 runs. He's singularly accounted for seven of each with home runs. Those Royals teammates haven't helped him much.
The Marlins are hitting .267 and have scored 85 runs, a little more than three per game. The Cubs are hitting a mere .255. They've tallied 136 runs, a little more than five per game. Good old batting average.
Showing posts with label April. Show all posts
Showing posts with label April. Show all posts
01 May 2016
17 April 2016
What Winless and Undefeated Starts Mean
Most baseball observers fit into one of two categories regarding the commencement of play -- their attention remains fixed on the NBA and NHL playoffs or they obsess about every defeat and victory.
April's games hold relatively little weight in a 162-game season, but they're not irrelevant. While it hardly matters that a team with low expectations leaves the gate 7-5 while a division favorite falls eight out of 13 times, early wins and losses do matter.
Take the Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins.
The Orioles burst from the starter's line with seven consecutive wins. Because it began the campaign, we tend to add significance to the accomplishment, but suppose the O's had instead won seven in a row at some point in July, would anyone be anointing them kings? Even bad teams occasionally go on a run.
And yet, the history of teams that break off seven straight to start a season is encouraging. While hot starts are no guarantees of making the playoffs, they almost universally presage a contender. A first unblemished week suggests the Orioles are to be reckoned with, especially in the AL East, where it doesn't appear that there is a roster that can separate itself from the pack. That's true even as they gave back three of the next four.
How about the reverse? The Braves and Twins are unburdened this year by expectations, except to anchor the standings in their respective divisions. Each team won three straight following an 0-9 start. Are they doomed or did they merely stumble?
In short: the news is worse. It takes a bad team to lose nine straight in early April. History is littered with 100-loss teams who kicked off 0-9. Indeed, the last such squad was the 2003 Detroit Tigers, who lost another 110 times and won just 43.
And given that the rosters in Minnesota and Atlanta weren't sparking much enthusiasm to begin with, it's probably a sign of things to come. The three straight wins since aren't much salve for that.
April's games hold relatively little weight in a 162-game season, but they're not irrelevant. While it hardly matters that a team with low expectations leaves the gate 7-5 while a division favorite falls eight out of 13 times, early wins and losses do matter.
Take the Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins.
And yet, the history of teams that break off seven straight to start a season is encouraging. While hot starts are no guarantees of making the playoffs, they almost universally presage a contender. A first unblemished week suggests the Orioles are to be reckoned with, especially in the AL East, where it doesn't appear that there is a roster that can separate itself from the pack. That's true even as they gave back three of the next four.
How about the reverse? The Braves and Twins are unburdened this year by expectations, except to anchor the standings in their respective divisions. Each team won three straight following an 0-9 start. Are they doomed or did they merely stumble?
In short: the news is worse. It takes a bad team to lose nine straight in early April. History is littered with 100-loss teams who kicked off 0-9. Indeed, the last such squad was the 2003 Detroit Tigers, who lost another 110 times and won just 43.
And given that the rosters in Minnesota and Atlanta weren't sparking much enthusiasm to begin with, it's probably a sign of things to come. The three straight wins since aren't much salve for that.
20 April 2014
Isn't April Great!
Twins keystoner Brian Dozier has 13 hits this year in 67 at bats, a .194 batting average. Yet he paces the junior circuit in runs scored with 18. That's the power of 13 walks.
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The Big Donkey had an uncharacteristic Little Gnat kind of game Saturday. He batted four times, hit three singles and stole a base. He neither walked nor struck out.
Over 1884 career games, Adam Dunn has walked, struck out or homered in exactly half his plate appearances. He has singled less than 10% of the time. And he has swiped all of six bases, including Saturday's, over the last six years. Based on his career, the odds of hitting three singles and stealing a base were roughly one in 150,000. But Saturday, it happened.
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Pirate outfielder Pedro Alvarez has hit safely 11 times so far this season. Six of those hits have left the yard. Despite batting .157, Alvarez is second in the NL in RBIs with 18.
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Some of the beauty of baseball lies in watching the emergence of new stars. Over the course of this season, fans will have the pleasure of witnessing the talents of some young stud or another.
We might start with the youngest player in the game, a mere 21-year-old. In his previous two seasons of pro ball he's batted .272/.354/.481 with 42 homers, 29 steals and sterling outfield defense. So far this season in the majors, it's been more of the same.
He's not yet a complete work, this youth. His new manager, discomfited with his nonchalance on the basepaths, pulled him from a game against the Cardinals Saturday. They'll both get over it and the youngster will get back to the outfield Sunday, newly humbled, to wreck more havoc against the opposition.
Keep that context in mind when you consider the news about Bryce Harper. Two hundred seventy-three games into his career, he remains the youngest player in the game.
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Tim Hudson continues to deliver, even at age 39. In 30 innings so far, he's recorded 20 strikeouts. His next walk will be his first. That's a K/BB rate of, um, infinity.
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A 30-year-old first baseman named Chris Colabello, with three doubles in 160 MLB at bats on his MLB resume entering the season, presently paces the majors with nine two-baggers. He's hitting .359 and leading the AL in RBIs.
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Isn't April great!
19 April 2014
It's All Over But the Shouting
Here we are, one-tenth of the way into the season and it all seems to have been decided.
The Astros, Cubs and Marlins are in last place. The Yankees, Tigers and A's lead the AL divisions and the Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Nats and Cardinals are playoff-bound in the NL. Only Milwaukee, with the best record in baseball, and Arizona, with the worst, are major surprises.
It's amazing how quickly teams settle at their natural level. Two weeks into a six-month season the standings look much the way you would have predicted.
This is certainly not true of individual players. Among the batting leaders are Charlie Blackmon, Devin Mesoraco, Yangervis Solarte and Dee Ferchristsakes Gordon. That's the same Dee Gordon who couldn't hit a Spaldeen off a tee beyond second base the last two seasons (SLG .281 & .298.)
Among the ERA leaders are Aaron Harang, Alfredo Simon, Kyle Gibson and Robbie Ross. Didn't Aaron Harang beat Warren Spahn in his first start? However far back he goes (2002, for the record) he's produced a single win over replacement the last four seasons combined.
This is the second consecutive year that the best and worst squads separated themselves by Easter. That's surprising for a game that rewards the top talent with victory only around 60% of the time; a game that meanders through three different seasons; a game of slumps and tears; a game of personnel changes midway through the schedule; a marathon, not a sprint.
That doesn't, of course, mean the Brewers will emerge from the scrum in October. They have been winning with pitching that likely won't carry them for the season's entirety. The starting staff sports a 2.52 ERA and closer K-Rod has yet to surrender a run while collecting five saves. But Fielding Independent measures suggest the rotation is pitching at more like a 3.72 ERA clip, possibly enough to carry the Brews to the playoffs, but not at this pace.
The D-backs are another story. Their hitting is lousy and it's the strength of the team. Arizona pitchers -- Bronson Arroyo and the Nobody Brothers -- are the senior circuit's worst, with a 5.70 ERA and a K/BB under two.Their closer, 25-year-old Addison Reed, won't be closing for long at this pace: he's coughed up seven runs on two gopher balls in one game's worth of relief appearances. Adding insult to injury, 12 of 13 baserunners have successfully swiped a bag off catcher Miguel Montero. It could be a long year in Phoenix.
Then again, it might not be. Funny things happen through the Spring and summer and then into the Fall. The only thing we really can count on is change. And Mike Trout being AL MVP.
The Astros, Cubs and Marlins are in last place. The Yankees, Tigers and A's lead the AL divisions and the Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Nats and Cardinals are playoff-bound in the NL. Only Milwaukee, with the best record in baseball, and Arizona, with the worst, are major surprises.
It's amazing how quickly teams settle at their natural level. Two weeks into a six-month season the standings look much the way you would have predicted.
This is certainly not true of individual players. Among the batting leaders are Charlie Blackmon, Devin Mesoraco, Yangervis Solarte and Dee Ferchristsakes Gordon. That's the same Dee Gordon who couldn't hit a Spaldeen off a tee beyond second base the last two seasons (SLG .281 & .298.)
Among the ERA leaders are Aaron Harang, Alfredo Simon, Kyle Gibson and Robbie Ross. Didn't Aaron Harang beat Warren Spahn in his first start? However far back he goes (2002, for the record) he's produced a single win over replacement the last four seasons combined.
This is the second consecutive year that the best and worst squads separated themselves by Easter. That's surprising for a game that rewards the top talent with victory only around 60% of the time; a game that meanders through three different seasons; a game of slumps and tears; a game of personnel changes midway through the schedule; a marathon, not a sprint.
That doesn't, of course, mean the Brewers will emerge from the scrum in October. They have been winning with pitching that likely won't carry them for the season's entirety. The starting staff sports a 2.52 ERA and closer K-Rod has yet to surrender a run while collecting five saves. But Fielding Independent measures suggest the rotation is pitching at more like a 3.72 ERA clip, possibly enough to carry the Brews to the playoffs, but not at this pace.
The D-backs are another story. Their hitting is lousy and it's the strength of the team. Arizona pitchers -- Bronson Arroyo and the Nobody Brothers -- are the senior circuit's worst, with a 5.70 ERA and a K/BB under two.Their closer, 25-year-old Addison Reed, won't be closing for long at this pace: he's coughed up seven runs on two gopher balls in one game's worth of relief appearances. Adding insult to injury, 12 of 13 baserunners have successfully swiped a bag off catcher Miguel Montero. It could be a long year in Phoenix.
Then again, it might not be. Funny things happen through the Spring and summer and then into the Fall. The only thing we really can count on is change. And Mike Trout being AL MVP.
30 January 2011
A Little Kick In The Kotchman
Just when I start to get used to rays of sunshine illuminating the world of baseball reporting, the rain clouds of ignorance move in to remind me that while we've made some progress, we still live in a cumulus of journalistic daftness when it comes to sports reporting.
It's a small and silly thing really, a report this week from the Associated Press, that staunch defender of the 1901 reporting methods. It mentioned that the Tampa Bay Rays had signed first baseman Casey Kotchman to a contract, noting that in seven years he has hit .259 with 49 homers and 284 RBIs.
If you didn't know Mr. Kotchman or his St. Petersburg clan you'd have gained rather little insight into his career from those stats. He doesn't seem to be Stan Musial. Beyond that, though, you don't have much information.
After all, Casey might have kicked around for a few years, making cameo MLB appearances, busted out with a couple of 24 homer, 100 RBI years before a string of injuries put him on the shelf. In that case, bad luck might be winning the tug of war with good skills and the Rays are hoping for a good roll of the dice in 2011.
Or he might have plodded along through seven lackluster seasons, dinking seven homers and 40 RBIs a year. That's not even take-a-flyer material, especially at the least important defensive postion.
Maybe, in fact, Kotchman is a walk machine with after-burners who'll reliably bat leadoff for Tampa, get on base 250 times, swipe 40 of 45 bases and score 120 times while displaying a sizzling glove. In that case, the batting line presented not only matters less than his cup size, it summarily fails to measure anything relevant.
In fact, Kotchman is none of the above. A part-time player his whole career, he's accumulated even 300 plate appearances just four times. His .259/.326/.392 lifetime stat line show he's a hair above replacement level at the plate, unless he repeats last year's putridity. The less reliable defensive stats suggest he's a decent defensive backup.
The point isn't what Casey Kotchman is or isn't -- in fact, this is a throwaway item of little note that simply fills space in the newspaper. But as long as AP was going to fill that space, why couldn't they have filled it with information that told us something, anything? What they gave the baseball public instead was simply an empty bucket that was 30 years ago thought to have held something useful.
There is work yet to be done...
b
05 May 2009
April Showers Bring May Ignorance
Steroids must be back. That must be it, right? Except, Alex Rodriguez and Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro and Barry Bonds are all out of the game at the moment. Maybe pitchers have stopped taking steroids. Maybe that's it.
Or the ball is even more corked than before. No, no, it's the new Yankee Stadium, which forgot the humidor. Or good weather in the East. or was it the West? Or a lack of good pitching. That's always a handy reason.
Yes, the baseball establishment, prompted by baseball "journalism," has been doing its Tasmanian Devil routine to explain the increase in offense this April in comparison to last year. The ex post facto theorizing is an amusing spectacle when you know that people are trying to explain something that doesn't actually exist.
"There have been a lot of pitchers on the disabled list," noted Joe Torre. Curtis Granderson said the balls are juiced. Mike Sciosia postulates that pitchers aren't yet sharp.
They are trying to make sense of a 6.8% increase in runs scored this April and a 17% hike in home runs compared to last year. Batting average is up, ERAs are up, walks are up. They've all skyrocketed to their highest rate in...three years.
That's right, offense is actually down compared to 2006, which was up from '05 which was down from '04 which was up from '03 which was down from '01 and '00. Since the turn of the century, long balls are off 20%, batting average is down seven points and ERAs are more than 30 points better. Since 2001, April's offensive performance have been all over the lot.
What does all this tell us? It tells us a grand total of nada, nil, zilch, zero, bupkus, goose egg and jack. Players, teams and even whole leagues vary in their performance from year to year a few percentage points one way or the other for no particular reason -- or at least for no reason that we can discern. An uptick one year in offense doesn't even guarantee that offense will be up that year, much less suggest a trend.
Let's just say there have been a slew of grand slams this year and note that the Yankees' red zone defense was lacking against Cleveland and Boston. And leave it at that.
b
Or the ball is even more corked than before. No, no, it's the new Yankee Stadium, which forgot the humidor. Or good weather in the East. or was it the West? Or a lack of good pitching. That's always a handy reason.
Yes, the baseball establishment, prompted by baseball "journalism," has been doing its Tasmanian Devil routine to explain the increase in offense this April in comparison to last year. The ex post facto theorizing is an amusing spectacle when you know that people are trying to explain something that doesn't actually exist.
"There have been a lot of pitchers on the disabled list," noted Joe Torre. Curtis Granderson said the balls are juiced. Mike Sciosia postulates that pitchers aren't yet sharp.
They are trying to make sense of a 6.8% increase in runs scored this April and a 17% hike in home runs compared to last year. Batting average is up, ERAs are up, walks are up. They've all skyrocketed to their highest rate in...three years.
That's right, offense is actually down compared to 2006, which was up from '05 which was down from '04 which was up from '03 which was down from '01 and '00. Since the turn of the century, long balls are off 20%, batting average is down seven points and ERAs are more than 30 points better. Since 2001, April's offensive performance have been all over the lot.
What does all this tell us? It tells us a grand total of nada, nil, zilch, zero, bupkus, goose egg and jack. Players, teams and even whole leagues vary in their performance from year to year a few percentage points one way or the other for no particular reason -- or at least for no reason that we can discern. An uptick one year in offense doesn't even guarantee that offense will be up that year, much less suggest a trend.
Let's just say there have been a slew of grand slams this year and note that the Yankees' red zone defense was lacking against Cleveland and Boston. And leave it at that.
b
19 April 2009
Notes From the Bleacher Seats
Mid-April, a time in baseball to ignore your fantasy team so that you don't make any rash decisions. Folks, the Blue Jays will not lead the AL in runs scored, so take a deep breath and just enjoy America's pastime without jumping to any conclusions.
A few observations, on the other hand, are in order:
Just What They're Looking For
This is how the Met brain trust drew it up, at least on one side of the ball. Johan Santana strikes out seven in as many shutout innings, J.J. Putz and KRod fan four in two innings of one-hit ball, and a solid defensive lineup clamps down the Brewers.
Expect To See More of This
Tim Lincecum shakes off a couple of rough starts and blanks Arizona for eight innings without walking a batter for the Giants . He also whiffs 13 Diamondbacks. Great. San Francisco, whose cleanup hitter is Bengie Molina, loses 2-0. Get used to it.
Same script for the Mariners, another team with the hit-making ability of Dexys Midnight Runers. Eric Bedard, still healthy after two full weeks, pitches six solid innings, but Seattle's bats remain quiet against the vaunted Detroit mound corps, which prevails 2-0. With the AL West up for grabs, look for Anaheim, Texas and Oakland to circle every Seattle series on their calendars.
Manny Ramirez smacks two home runs and drops a fly ball, as the Dodgers maintain their hold on first place in the NL West. That's the trade-off you make with Manny and it usually accrues to his team's advantage. But it's got to play havoc with the mellow head Joe Torre's been cultivating in L.A.
Enjoy It While You Can
With a second straight come-from-behind win, this time off a closer who hadn't blown a save in 18 months, the Padres beat the World Champs and improved their record to 9-3. Don't believe the hype. San Diego is a dreadful team. Sixteen runs in two games not withstanding, they have no offense to complement their lack of pitching.
Buyer Beware
The Marlins are an intriguing young team, but let's not throw a playoff party for them just yet. Remember that they've been playing the Nationals, whose management seems to share their host city's good judgment and fiscal discipline. If chronic poor performance is reason for a bailout, this team needs to have a talk with Tim Geithner. Think you can name three members of the Washington pitching staff? You're officially a baseball geek.
There May Actually Be A God
It's fun watching the Yankees self-destruct, if only for one day. It wasn't just Chien-Ming Wang's inability to keep the ball below hitters' navels, but the March of the Penguins behind him that is supposed to be the NY bullpen. The Yanks aren't going to lose a lot of 22-4 games; in fact, they may not lose a lot of games period, but it was nice to see the team's deficiencies showcased on national TV. Their defense-first center fielder dropping a fly ball, their slowing shortstop failing to get to any bouncing ball in his vicinity, their complete lack of a bench -- no wonder they spent the GDP of Botswana for three good players. It's hard to imagine this team beating Boston without some mid-season superstar repurchase program provided by a rebuilding team. Note to Brian Cashman: crappy pitching staffs aren't improved by bringing in more bad pitchers. Carrying 13 pitchers leaves Joe Girardi without options in the field, especially with four DHs in the lineup. For all their stars, this is one of the most poorly constructed teams in baseball.
Twenty-four more glorious weeks of this...and then the playoffs!
b
A few observations, on the other hand, are in order:
Just What They're Looking For
This is how the Met brain trust drew it up, at least on one side of the ball. Johan Santana strikes out seven in as many shutout innings, J.J. Putz and KRod fan four in two innings of one-hit ball, and a solid defensive lineup clamps down the Brewers.
Expect To See More of This
Tim Lincecum shakes off a couple of rough starts and blanks Arizona for eight innings without walking a batter for the Giants . He also whiffs 13 Diamondbacks. Great. San Francisco, whose cleanup hitter is Bengie Molina, loses 2-0. Get used to it.
Same script for the Mariners, another team with the hit-making ability of Dexys Midnight Runers. Eric Bedard, still healthy after two full weeks, pitches six solid innings, but Seattle's bats remain quiet against the vaunted Detroit mound corps, which prevails 2-0. With the AL West up for grabs, look for Anaheim, Texas and Oakland to circle every Seattle series on their calendars.
Manny Ramirez smacks two home runs and drops a fly ball, as the Dodgers maintain their hold on first place in the NL West. That's the trade-off you make with Manny and it usually accrues to his team's advantage. But it's got to play havoc with the mellow head Joe Torre's been cultivating in L.A.
Enjoy It While You Can
With a second straight come-from-behind win, this time off a closer who hadn't blown a save in 18 months, the Padres beat the World Champs and improved their record to 9-3. Don't believe the hype. San Diego is a dreadful team. Sixteen runs in two games not withstanding, they have no offense to complement their lack of pitching.
Buyer Beware
The Marlins are an intriguing young team, but let's not throw a playoff party for them just yet. Remember that they've been playing the Nationals, whose management seems to share their host city's good judgment and fiscal discipline. If chronic poor performance is reason for a bailout, this team needs to have a talk with Tim Geithner. Think you can name three members of the Washington pitching staff? You're officially a baseball geek.
There May Actually Be A God
It's fun watching the Yankees self-destruct, if only for one day. It wasn't just Chien-Ming Wang's inability to keep the ball below hitters' navels, but the March of the Penguins behind him that is supposed to be the NY bullpen. The Yanks aren't going to lose a lot of 22-4 games; in fact, they may not lose a lot of games period, but it was nice to see the team's deficiencies showcased on national TV. Their defense-first center fielder dropping a fly ball, their slowing shortstop failing to get to any bouncing ball in his vicinity, their complete lack of a bench -- no wonder they spent the GDP of Botswana for three good players. It's hard to imagine this team beating Boston without some mid-season superstar repurchase program provided by a rebuilding team. Note to Brian Cashman: crappy pitching staffs aren't improved by bringing in more bad pitchers. Carrying 13 pitchers leaves Joe Girardi without options in the field, especially with four DHs in the lineup. For all their stars, this is one of the most poorly constructed teams in baseball.
Twenty-four more glorious weeks of this...and then the playoffs!
b
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