Conventional wisdom, like student-athletes, tends to be one and not the other. Below are the 10 greatest and most persistent ideas in sports that have somehow eluded punchline status.
1. How valuable can he be when his team wasn't any good? Let's flip this. How valuable could Ichiro Suzuki have been in 2001 when the Mariners swept the AL West by 14 games, and finished 31 games clear of the Wild Card? Seattle could undeniably have earned a playoff berth without him. Yet the writers who use this question to justify skipping over a league's best player voted Ichiro the MVP by a wide margin.
2. The team controls its own destiny. No one owns a dictionary anymore, I get that. But dictionary.com is one click away. Google is still on computers, last I checked. Is there some vast, worldwide conspiracy to not understand what destiny is? (Hint: see fate, kismet.) Next: the world's physicists discuss in which direction the sun revolves around the earth.
3. His team lost, so he's no longer the leading Heisman candidate. Because his six touchdowns demonstrated a lack of leadership.
4. Championships are all that matter. So being a fan of the Minnesota Twins was just as rewarding in the 1990s as being a fan of the Atlanta Braves, because each team celebrated one World Championship during the decade. The Twins averaged 67 victories, and notched two winning seasons, one division title and one pennant in that span. The Braves averaged 95 victories, and notched nine winning seasons, eight division titles and five pennants. But none of that matters; only championships do.
5. Hitting wins games but pitching wins championships. (Football corollary: offense wins games but defense wins championships.) Brilliant! Think about what this revolutionary concept says: If you hold your opponent to fewer runs (or points) than you score, you will win the title. But if you score more runs (points) than you allow, you won't win the title. This changes everything! It disproves the widely held belief that offense and defense are inversely linked: every run (point) the offense scores, the defense allows.
6. This is a big regular-season game because they're battling for the top seed . . . Sure, because the top seed gets the home field/court/ice advantage against a clearly inferior opponent in the first round while on the other hand, the second seed gets the home field/court/ice advantage against a clearly inferior opponent in the first round. Plus, if these same two teams make it through the post-season gauntlet to meet for the conference championship, the one-seed gets home field/court/ice advantage, which has been proven over the last 30 years to be utterly irrelevant. So they'll be slugging it out in this critically important regular season contest in which both combatants long ago clinched a playoff spot and would never think to rest their best players and protect them from injury. (Now on the radio: George Strait's "Ocean Front Property.")
7. I'm against instant replay because I believe in the human element. You got that right! And while we're at it, let's put the human element back in team travel. No more of these fancy aeroplanes. The teams should just walk from St. Louis to Cincinnati. And no more of this tel-o-visioning either. People should either come to the game or wait for the newspaper to report two days later the information they get from the teletype. And no more of them arthroscopes and other fancy medical doo-dads for injured athletes. Back to surgeons with saws and ether. Because, you know, the human element. We like a system that upholds game-deciding mistakes, which the entire world except the umpires can see replayed. If it's good enough for the Providence Grays, the Boston Beaneaters and the Cleveland Spiders, it's good enough for us.
8. If the team wins a third championship in three years, the quarterback has to get consideration for "greatest college football player of all time." (This one has been suggested specifically of A.J. McCarron, the QB of Alabama.) Wait, I thought defense wins championships. (McCarron's never even earned first team SEC, but 14 of his teammates over the three years have.)
9. He's an RBI guy. Some guys are base stealers. Others are LOOGYs. None is so revered as the man who bats behind the best hitters on his team and exploits his opportunities to plate runs by grounding out, flying out, bouncing into a double-play, sacrificing or other cunning methods. He is the RBI Guy. We never hear about his counterpart, the RS Guy, who walks, steals second, advances to third on a ground out and makes it possible for RBI Guy to knock him in.
10. All that counts is: how many rings does he have? Back-up shortstop Luis Soto is thrilled to hear this. By this accounting, he is one of the great players of all time. He won five championships with the Yankees and Toronto. He accrued a .650 lifetime OPS and earned four wins against replacement over a 13-year career. Whereas Walter Johnson and Ty Cobb combined for one title -- they probably didn't even get rings back in 1924 -- and all they did was enter the Hall of Fame with the first class. Why? Because they had the misfortune to play on bad teams? Pfff! It was because they lacked the will to win! And that's why they can never be the greatest of all time. Johnson, who in every other sense was the most accomplished hurler in baseball history, earned four times as many wins against replacement as Soto -- with his bat.
Go back 50 years and you find an even more spectacular winner than Soto. Third-string Yankee catcher Ralph Houk slugged seven extra base hits, including zero home runs, in his eight year career. He garnered one-tenth of a win against replacement for his entire Major League life. But he had the will to win, as his six World Series rings attest.
In basketball, the same honor goes to Robert Horry. His seven trophies -- two with Houston, three with the Lakers and two with San Antonio -- attest to his transcendence. He may have received some slight assistance from Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Shaquille O'Neill, Kobe Bryant, David Robinson and Tim Duncan.
Those 10 assertions continue to delight, years after their debunking. Long live the myths! (Not!)
24 November 2013
21 November 2013
A Good Old-Fashioned Trade
When Detroit sent their portly vegetarian first-baseman to Arlington yesterday for keystoner Ian Kinsler, each team got a fielder. The Rangers got Prince, a 30-year-old basher with on-base skills and seven years of lottery winnings left on his contract. The Tigers got a 32-year-old second baseman with mad leather skills, a nice bat and quick feet on the basepaths.
It's a straight-up deal, a star for a star. And the big winner is, Jurickson Profar. The Rangers' second base uber-prospect can now step out of Kinsler's shadow and demonstrate his skills. At 20, he spent half-a-season showing he belonged in The Show despite bouncing among positions like a yoga instructor.
For that reason, this deal makes sense for Texas. Their Kinsler money lands Fielder, who replaces the steroid-pumped bat of free agent Nelson Cruz, and Profar cushions the blow at second. Their big concern is the $138 million they'll owe their new slugger through his age-36 year. Fielder comes off a down season and four years of declining walks. But as Ranger GM Jon Daniels noted, Prince is untouchable without the down season. And the walks may be an artifact of batting behind the league's MVP: the other team can't walk both of them.
With this trade, the Tigers get all the colors straight on their Rubik's cube, even though Kinsler's peak ended in 2011. Absent 32-year-old free agent Omar Infante, they had a big black hole facing them at the keystone and a logjam of big-boned DH types playing the field. The swap allows them to limit Miguel Cabrera's damage with the glove by rolling his spherical self back to first, add hitting and base stealing at second and find a third baseman who can actually play the hot corner. That's prospect Nick Castellanos raising his hand out there in left field.
Kinsler has $62 million coming through his age 36 season, plus $30 million the team is sending to Texas to offset some of Fielder's pay. (That figure is already included in the amount the Rangers will owe Fielder.) He is also damaged goods following a season with the fewest walks, worst base-stealing and lowest OPS of his career. That said, he was credited with 4.9 wins against replacement, which is basically All-Star level. The Tigers took on much less risk and improved their feng shui by moving the parts to their correct places.
It would be great to see more of these kinds of trades and fewer salary dumps, veterans for prospects deals and headache swaps. It's one trade we'll be able to look back on and determine who got the better of it.
It's a straight-up deal, a star for a star. And the big winner is, Jurickson Profar. The Rangers' second base uber-prospect can now step out of Kinsler's shadow and demonstrate his skills. At 20, he spent half-a-season showing he belonged in The Show despite bouncing among positions like a yoga instructor.
For that reason, this deal makes sense for Texas. Their Kinsler money lands Fielder, who replaces the steroid-pumped bat of free agent Nelson Cruz, and Profar cushions the blow at second. Their big concern is the $138 million they'll owe their new slugger through his age-36 year. Fielder comes off a down season and four years of declining walks. But as Ranger GM Jon Daniels noted, Prince is untouchable without the down season. And the walks may be an artifact of batting behind the league's MVP: the other team can't walk both of them.
With this trade, the Tigers get all the colors straight on their Rubik's cube, even though Kinsler's peak ended in 2011. Absent 32-year-old free agent Omar Infante, they had a big black hole facing them at the keystone and a logjam of big-boned DH types playing the field. The swap allows them to limit Miguel Cabrera's damage with the glove by rolling his spherical self back to first, add hitting and base stealing at second and find a third baseman who can actually play the hot corner. That's prospect Nick Castellanos raising his hand out there in left field.
Kinsler has $62 million coming through his age 36 season, plus $30 million the team is sending to Texas to offset some of Fielder's pay. (That figure is already included in the amount the Rangers will owe Fielder.) He is also damaged goods following a season with the fewest walks, worst base-stealing and lowest OPS of his career. That said, he was credited with 4.9 wins against replacement, which is basically All-Star level. The Tigers took on much less risk and improved their feng shui by moving the parts to their correct places.
It would be great to see more of these kinds of trades and fewer salary dumps, veterans for prospects deals and headache swaps. It's one trade we'll be able to look back on and determine who got the better of it.
16 November 2013
Why the 2014 Pirates = the 2013 Nationals
Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Pirates, winners of 94 games and the Wild Card in 2013. The Bucs ended two decades of futility by exceeding expectations this past season. The good people of the Steel City should pop an Iron City Brew to toast their young team's accomplishment. And then prepare for 2014, when PNC's denizens return to earth.
We've seen this before. Think all the way back to 2012, when a young Washington Nationals team swept to the league's best record with 98 wins. Like the Pirates, the Nats were a year ahead of schedule, but breakouts by their promising franchise players (Harper and Strasburg) coincided with unexpected leaps from veterans (Adam LaRoche and Gio Gonzalez).
In 2013, Gonzalez regressed to form (from 21-8, 2.89 to 11-8, 3.36) and LaRoche fell predictably hard (from .271 BA and 33 home runs to .237 BA and 20 HR). In addition, a Washington bullpen that strangled NL hitters in 2012, allowing a 2.85 ERA, lost much of its effectiveness in 2013, allowing 3.57 earned runs per nine, and the runs allowed seemed to come at the most inopportune times.
The result was that the Nats wavered all spring and summer, and needed a late-season burst to claim 86 wins. A similar fate awaits Pittsburgh in 2014 assuming their roster doesn't change dramatically between now and Opening Day.
For one thing, the Pirates this past season outperformed their profile by six wins. That's a good bit of luck filling their sails that is unlikely to blow next season. Here is a list of other 2013 artifacts they can't expect next year:
1. First baseman Gaby Sanchez will reprise his career high .361 OBP.
2. The bullpen will finish third in baseball in fewest runs allowed.
3. Only one starting player will suffer a serious injury.
4. Andrew McCutchen will win the MVP
5. Marlon Byrd will hit .318/.357/.486 in the final 30 games. (He's signed elsewhere.)
6. Starter Jeff Locke and his 1.49 K/BB ratio will hold opponents to a 3.52 ERA.
7. Jason Grilli's magic carpet ride will continue at age 37.
Some unexpected positives will offset what's above, but even if it all evens out and the entire net loss is due to luck, Jolly Roger wins 88 instead of 94 and misses the playoffs.
Now here's the good news: like the Nationals, the Pirates are built for the long run. Washington will bounce back in 2014 as youth continues to be served and become the World Series favorites many picked them for this year. Assuming the normal progression of its young players and intelligent player acquisition, Pittsburgh will be a contender in 2015. Management in Western Pennsylvania and (to a lesser degree) the District of Columbia have the long view in mind. Fans of the two teams would be wise to adopt the same policy.
We've seen this before. Think all the way back to 2012, when a young Washington Nationals team swept to the league's best record with 98 wins. Like the Pirates, the Nats were a year ahead of schedule, but breakouts by their promising franchise players (Harper and Strasburg) coincided with unexpected leaps from veterans (Adam LaRoche and Gio Gonzalez).
In 2013, Gonzalez regressed to form (from 21-8, 2.89 to 11-8, 3.36) and LaRoche fell predictably hard (from .271 BA and 33 home runs to .237 BA and 20 HR). In addition, a Washington bullpen that strangled NL hitters in 2012, allowing a 2.85 ERA, lost much of its effectiveness in 2013, allowing 3.57 earned runs per nine, and the runs allowed seemed to come at the most inopportune times.
The result was that the Nats wavered all spring and summer, and needed a late-season burst to claim 86 wins. A similar fate awaits Pittsburgh in 2014 assuming their roster doesn't change dramatically between now and Opening Day.
For one thing, the Pirates this past season outperformed their profile by six wins. That's a good bit of luck filling their sails that is unlikely to blow next season. Here is a list of other 2013 artifacts they can't expect next year:
1. First baseman Gaby Sanchez will reprise his career high .361 OBP.
2. The bullpen will finish third in baseball in fewest runs allowed.
3. Only one starting player will suffer a serious injury.
4. Andrew McCutchen will win the MVP
5. Marlon Byrd will hit .318/.357/.486 in the final 30 games. (He's signed elsewhere.)
6. Starter Jeff Locke and his 1.49 K/BB ratio will hold opponents to a 3.52 ERA.
7. Jason Grilli's magic carpet ride will continue at age 37.
Some unexpected positives will offset what's above, but even if it all evens out and the entire net loss is due to luck, Jolly Roger wins 88 instead of 94 and misses the playoffs.
Now here's the good news: like the Nationals, the Pirates are built for the long run. Washington will bounce back in 2014 as youth continues to be served and become the World Series favorites many picked them for this year. Assuming the normal progression of its young players and intelligent player acquisition, Pittsburgh will be a contender in 2015. Management in Western Pennsylvania and (to a lesser degree) the District of Columbia have the long view in mind. Fans of the two teams would be wise to adopt the same policy.
15 November 2013
Catching Up . . . Awards, Goodbye Brian McCann, So Long Turner Field
Baseball events have continued apace despite a Braindrizzling hiatus. How can that be? Perhaps Joe Posnanski kept things afloat in the interim.
The Cy Young Awards were announced this week. There's not a whole lot of room for debate on Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer. Kershaw led the planet in ERA, and that includes Little League. Scherzer's 21-3 record and nearly six runs of support per start don't accrue to his credit, but he shouldn't be penalized for them either. Scherzer gets the prize because he dominated AL batters to the tune of a nifty 2.90 ERA, 240 strikeouts in 214 innings, and a best-in-class .97 WHIP.
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The same for Rookie of the Year awards. The trophy would have gone to Yasiel Puig in almost any other year. He punched balls all over the yard, 60% better than league average, and added dynamite to a moribund Dodger offense when he arrived. In years when such luminaries as Geovany Soto, Jason Jennings, Angel Berroa and Bobby Crosby earned top honors, Puig would have run away. Sadly for him, his freshman season coincided with Jose Fernandez's, which awoke ghosts of Fernandomania en route to a 12-6, 2.19 with more whiffs than frames pitched.
In the AL, Wil Myers and his .293/.354/.478 in slightly more than half a season was the pretty clear choice over shortstop Jose Iglesias and a couple of nice pitchers. In all, not much to complain about.
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The MVP Awards went as expected to Andrew McCutchen and Miguel Cabrera. Both were excellent choices. That Cabrera wasn't the best choice doesn't change the fact that he had another MVP-caliber season. It's difficult to be disappointed when a great candidate, the second-best of the league's 600 players, secures the honor. It's easy to be disappointed that Major League baseball writers don't know the difference between a great hitter and a great player, and can't fathom how one player's value isn't dependent on the performances of his teammates, but if being disappointed in baseball writers were a virus, we'd all have a permanent case of Ebola.
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You probably heard that teams made $14.1 million qualifying offers to 13 players, every one of which was declined. This is a ritual dance carried out by GMs and players under the new collective bargaining agreement. The players are now free agents who may seek multi-year deals. The teams may or may not want the players back but they will receive compensation draft picks if their former player is signed elsewhere.
Let's take the case of Braves backstop Brian McCann. The Georgia native is leaving by mutual decision, a net benefit for both him and the team even if he inks a five-year, $12 million/year deal with a catcher-starved franchise. (Hello Yankees! By the way, $12 mil is going to be cat pee compared to what McCann commands.) That serves McCann, who at 29 is headed into his decline years, but would guarantee the McCann family $60 million, rather than $14.1 million. It serves the good people of Atlanta -- or Marietta -- because the Braves have cheaper options and serious budget constraints. Leading the parade to replace the seven-time All-Star is Evan Gattis, whose above-average hitting comes with a half-million-dollar price tag and whose value is much greater behind the plate than in left field, where he attempted to hide in 2013. In addition, Atlanta would receive a first round supplemental pick from the signing team.
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Speaking of the Braves, they've flipped Turner Field into the trashcan after just 17 years, like it's a disposable lighter. Shame on the the various entities (which included NBC and the Atlanta Olympic Authority) for paying the massive retrofit costs to turn Centennial Olympic Stadium into Turner Field without requiring the Braves to sign a long-term lease.
The franchise and its new hosts, suburban Cobb County, claim the new home will be a "public-private partnership." This is code for an arrangement in which the public pays the bill and the team reaps the benefits.
In most "public-private" arrangements around sports stadiums, municipalities foot the bill and then lend their borrowing authority to the team for a portion of the costs. The team repays its loan at a discounted rate because the bonds are low-interest and tax-free. The municipality restricts its future borrowing ability for things like schools, hospitals, sewer systems and infrastructure that teams regularly complain about.
Many econometric studies have demonstrated that even after accounting for all the possible spending resulting from relocated sports teams, municipalities rarely earn back the value of their investments in stadiums unless those edifices are key cogs in new downtown development. Baseball teams are relatively smal businesses whose payrolls generally leave the state from November through March. The stadiums lay empty roughly 250 days-a-year and their use often generates as many costs for the city as tax income, all while the bonds demand repayment.
So the Braves will begin play in their third home in 21 years when they move to Marietta while the Red Sox have competed in the Fens for more than a century.
The Cy Young Awards were announced this week. There's not a whole lot of room for debate on Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer. Kershaw led the planet in ERA, and that includes Little League. Scherzer's 21-3 record and nearly six runs of support per start don't accrue to his credit, but he shouldn't be penalized for them either. Scherzer gets the prize because he dominated AL batters to the tune of a nifty 2.90 ERA, 240 strikeouts in 214 innings, and a best-in-class .97 WHIP.
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The same for Rookie of the Year awards. The trophy would have gone to Yasiel Puig in almost any other year. He punched balls all over the yard, 60% better than league average, and added dynamite to a moribund Dodger offense when he arrived. In years when such luminaries as Geovany Soto, Jason Jennings, Angel Berroa and Bobby Crosby earned top honors, Puig would have run away. Sadly for him, his freshman season coincided with Jose Fernandez's, which awoke ghosts of Fernandomania en route to a 12-6, 2.19 with more whiffs than frames pitched.
In the AL, Wil Myers and his .293/.354/.478 in slightly more than half a season was the pretty clear choice over shortstop Jose Iglesias and a couple of nice pitchers. In all, not much to complain about.
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The MVP Awards went as expected to Andrew McCutchen and Miguel Cabrera. Both were excellent choices. That Cabrera wasn't the best choice doesn't change the fact that he had another MVP-caliber season. It's difficult to be disappointed when a great candidate, the second-best of the league's 600 players, secures the honor. It's easy to be disappointed that Major League baseball writers don't know the difference between a great hitter and a great player, and can't fathom how one player's value isn't dependent on the performances of his teammates, but if being disappointed in baseball writers were a virus, we'd all have a permanent case of Ebola.
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You probably heard that teams made $14.1 million qualifying offers to 13 players, every one of which was declined. This is a ritual dance carried out by GMs and players under the new collective bargaining agreement. The players are now free agents who may seek multi-year deals. The teams may or may not want the players back but they will receive compensation draft picks if their former player is signed elsewhere.
Let's take the case of Braves backstop Brian McCann. The Georgia native is leaving by mutual decision, a net benefit for both him and the team even if he inks a five-year, $12 million/year deal with a catcher-starved franchise. (Hello Yankees! By the way, $12 mil is going to be cat pee compared to what McCann commands.) That serves McCann, who at 29 is headed into his decline years, but would guarantee the McCann family $60 million, rather than $14.1 million. It serves the good people of Atlanta -- or Marietta -- because the Braves have cheaper options and serious budget constraints. Leading the parade to replace the seven-time All-Star is Evan Gattis, whose above-average hitting comes with a half-million-dollar price tag and whose value is much greater behind the plate than in left field, where he attempted to hide in 2013. In addition, Atlanta would receive a first round supplemental pick from the signing team.
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Speaking of the Braves, they've flipped Turner Field into the trashcan after just 17 years, like it's a disposable lighter. Shame on the the various entities (which included NBC and the Atlanta Olympic Authority) for paying the massive retrofit costs to turn Centennial Olympic Stadium into Turner Field without requiring the Braves to sign a long-term lease.
The franchise and its new hosts, suburban Cobb County, claim the new home will be a "public-private partnership." This is code for an arrangement in which the public pays the bill and the team reaps the benefits.
In most "public-private" arrangements around sports stadiums, municipalities foot the bill and then lend their borrowing authority to the team for a portion of the costs. The team repays its loan at a discounted rate because the bonds are low-interest and tax-free. The municipality restricts its future borrowing ability for things like schools, hospitals, sewer systems and infrastructure that teams regularly complain about.
Many econometric studies have demonstrated that even after accounting for all the possible spending resulting from relocated sports teams, municipalities rarely earn back the value of their investments in stadiums unless those edifices are key cogs in new downtown development. Baseball teams are relatively smal businesses whose payrolls generally leave the state from November through March. The stadiums lay empty roughly 250 days-a-year and their use often generates as many costs for the city as tax income, all while the bonds demand repayment.
So the Braves will begin play in their third home in 21 years when they move to Marietta while the Red Sox have competed in the Fens for more than a century.
03 November 2013
Is David Ortiz a Hall of Famer?
With another set of post-season heroics in the rear view mirror, Hall of Fame buzz is beginning to swirl around David Ortiz. At 38, Big Papi delivered his best season since '07, with a .959 OPS in 137 games. Since joining the Red Sox in '03, Big Papi has authored a .292/.390/.572 resume with 373 home runs and an offensive record 48% above league average. That includes 2008-09 when a wrist injury hampered his swing and sapped his power; absent those two seasons he's raking at 55% above average. That Coopestownish.
The major Hall of Fame problem for Ortiz is that his career did not start with Boston in '03. In his first six years with the Twins, he hit just .266 with 58 homers. There was no Big and no Papi until he landed in the Bay state and began mashing behind Manny Ramirez. Ortiz has performed at a Hall of Fame level with the bat over an 11-year period, but that's not long enough and it's not the entirety of his playing career.
There's another barrier to a bronze bust for Ortiz: he's a DH. You will hear and read irrelevant analysis about how a DH doesn't belong in the Hall or about how no DH has ever been elected. Neither is the point. Cooperstown has a long history of enshrinement of one-dimensional players, in case you mistook Harmon Killebrew for a speed merchant (19 of 37 steals in 22 years) and defensive wizard (19 career wins below replacement with the glove).
The problem with rostering a player who can only DH is that it has an inherent negative effect on team construction. The various sabermetric measuring systems assess this against a player's defense, but the restrictions such a player imposes on lineup flexibility may accrue to offense instead or as well. Between his lack of range when he donned his mitt and the lack of managerial range created by carrying a non-fielder on the roster, Ortiz has cost his teams 18 wins over his career. That offsets a goodly chunk of his overall value.
There are four widely-used systems designed to predict a player's Hall of Fame case. Three of them say Ortiz has a fair amount of work to do. For example, the average Hall of Fame first baseman leads the league in 27 seasonal categories over the course of his career. Papi has led the AL in home runs once, RBIs twice, walks twice, OBP once and total bases once, well short of that standard. The JAWS Hall of Fame valuation model, which compares a player's value to the average Haller at his position (Ortiz is considered a first baseman since there are no DHs to whom we can compare him) suggests Ortiz is well short in both his peak and his overall career numbers, by distances he cannot bridge even if he performs well into his 40s.
None of this captures the special character that sparked the speculation to begin with. "Clutch" hitting is a vastly exaggerated notion, but Big Papi delivers in key situations so relentlessly there can be no denying that he loves the spotlight and thrives on pressure. Recounting all his game-changing home runs in season-altering games would amount to gilding the lily. His .455/.576/.795 line in three triumphant World Series speaks for itself. In addition, his unquestioned leadership was captured exquisitely when he gathered his bearded brethren around him in the dugout in Game 4 of the just concluded championship. It is tempting to assign cause and effect to that confab and the three consecutive victories that turned a 2-1 deficit into a parade.
How do you measure leadership and clutch hitting? What are their value? Are they enough to overcome a career gap of 24 wins against replacement. The answer, for me, is pretty clear: not even close. Big Papi is a great player and a character who will live forever in baseball history, but he hasn't done enough to earn a bust.
On to the elephant in the room: steroids. The New York Times reported that Ortiz was among 100 players who tested positively for steroids in 2003. Ortiz denied he took steroids and the Players Association claims those relatively unsophisticated tests returned false positives for supplement use. For some cynical followers of the game, that's enough to convict a player even though it amounts to nothing.
Others point to the spike in Ortiz big flies from 2004-2006 (40-47-54) at ages 28-30, followed by a dramatic decline to 35 after 2006, never to return. This argument is specious: that's normal career peaking. Indeed, in the four years preceding his home run spike he hit 10-18-20-31. In the four years following his peak, his home run totals declined to 35-23-28-32. He also played more games during the peak than in any other years.
In other words, there are several good reasons not to elect David Ortiz to the Hall of Fame -- a short peak and bad defense chief among them. There are a couple of good reasons to consider him further -- palpable leadership and clutch hitting that helped propel his team to three more championships in 10 years than they had won in the previous 86. But denying him a bust because of steroids is pure electoral malpractice, on par with electing Ted Cruz or Jesse Jackson Jr. to Congress.
The major Hall of Fame problem for Ortiz is that his career did not start with Boston in '03. In his first six years with the Twins, he hit just .266 with 58 homers. There was no Big and no Papi until he landed in the Bay state and began mashing behind Manny Ramirez. Ortiz has performed at a Hall of Fame level with the bat over an 11-year period, but that's not long enough and it's not the entirety of his playing career.
There's another barrier to a bronze bust for Ortiz: he's a DH. You will hear and read irrelevant analysis about how a DH doesn't belong in the Hall or about how no DH has ever been elected. Neither is the point. Cooperstown has a long history of enshrinement of one-dimensional players, in case you mistook Harmon Killebrew for a speed merchant (19 of 37 steals in 22 years) and defensive wizard (19 career wins below replacement with the glove).
The problem with rostering a player who can only DH is that it has an inherent negative effect on team construction. The various sabermetric measuring systems assess this against a player's defense, but the restrictions such a player imposes on lineup flexibility may accrue to offense instead or as well. Between his lack of range when he donned his mitt and the lack of managerial range created by carrying a non-fielder on the roster, Ortiz has cost his teams 18 wins over his career. That offsets a goodly chunk of his overall value.
There are four widely-used systems designed to predict a player's Hall of Fame case. Three of them say Ortiz has a fair amount of work to do. For example, the average Hall of Fame first baseman leads the league in 27 seasonal categories over the course of his career. Papi has led the AL in home runs once, RBIs twice, walks twice, OBP once and total bases once, well short of that standard. The JAWS Hall of Fame valuation model, which compares a player's value to the average Haller at his position (Ortiz is considered a first baseman since there are no DHs to whom we can compare him) suggests Ortiz is well short in both his peak and his overall career numbers, by distances he cannot bridge even if he performs well into his 40s.
None of this captures the special character that sparked the speculation to begin with. "Clutch" hitting is a vastly exaggerated notion, but Big Papi delivers in key situations so relentlessly there can be no denying that he loves the spotlight and thrives on pressure. Recounting all his game-changing home runs in season-altering games would amount to gilding the lily. His .455/.576/.795 line in three triumphant World Series speaks for itself. In addition, his unquestioned leadership was captured exquisitely when he gathered his bearded brethren around him in the dugout in Game 4 of the just concluded championship. It is tempting to assign cause and effect to that confab and the three consecutive victories that turned a 2-1 deficit into a parade.
How do you measure leadership and clutch hitting? What are their value? Are they enough to overcome a career gap of 24 wins against replacement. The answer, for me, is pretty clear: not even close. Big Papi is a great player and a character who will live forever in baseball history, but he hasn't done enough to earn a bust.
On to the elephant in the room: steroids. The New York Times reported that Ortiz was among 100 players who tested positively for steroids in 2003. Ortiz denied he took steroids and the Players Association claims those relatively unsophisticated tests returned false positives for supplement use. For some cynical followers of the game, that's enough to convict a player even though it amounts to nothing.
Others point to the spike in Ortiz big flies from 2004-2006 (40-47-54) at ages 28-30, followed by a dramatic decline to 35 after 2006, never to return. This argument is specious: that's normal career peaking. Indeed, in the four years preceding his home run spike he hit 10-18-20-31. In the four years following his peak, his home run totals declined to 35-23-28-32. He also played more games during the peak than in any other years.
In other words, there are several good reasons not to elect David Ortiz to the Hall of Fame -- a short peak and bad defense chief among them. There are a couple of good reasons to consider him further -- palpable leadership and clutch hitting that helped propel his team to three more championships in 10 years than they had won in the previous 86. But denying him a bust because of steroids is pure electoral malpractice, on par with electing Ted Cruz or Jesse Jackson Jr. to Congress.
31 October 2013
How On Earth...?
Last we saw the Boston Red Sox, they had issued an historic collapse at the end of the 2011 season, fired their popular manager, replaced him with the worst hiring decision this side of Hitler's election, sowed discord in the clubhouse, endured a string of injuries, traded away several of their best players and brought up the rear in the AL East with a dismal 69-93 record.
That's the team, that team, won the 2013 World Series.
And they didn't slink into the postseason like the '06 Cardinals and then get hot for two weeks to win the championship. The 2013 Red Sox dominated baseball's toughest division, won the most games in the Majors and pounded their playoff foes.
Huh? How on Earth...?
To answer this question, only ex post facto explanations need apply. No one saw this coming. How could they?
First we have to recognize, as Boston's front office did, that this was not a 93-loss team. Injuries and throwing in the towel led to last year's results. A contending core remained.
Second, the Injury Fairy moved on. In 2013, the Sox remained unexpectedly healthy. David Ortiz swaggered to the plate 600 times. Dustin Pedroia played a full season despite flinging his body around the field. Jacoby Ellsbury continued his odd-year good health pattern. Among the 14 everyday and pitching starters, only pitcher Clay Bucholz failed to dress for a significant chunk of the season. (Of course, both closers brought in by Boston got stung. Andrew Bailey missed most of May and the entire second half; Joel Hanrahan threw seven innings before Tommy John came calling.)
Third, everyone hit. Big Papi led the way with 30 homers and a .959 OPS, but the rest of the lineup, including ostensible backups Daniel Nava, utility man Mike Carp, and even rookie shortstop Jose Iglesias, posted OPS at least 10% above league average. (GM Ben Cherrington, realizing that Iglesias was a mirage who would soon be replaced by Xander Boegarts, flipped him mid-season for prospects.) Only Will Middlebrooks and his .271 OBP faltered, and even he raised that to .329 upon returning from the Minors in August.
Fourth, a couple of key signings worked out reasonably well. Shane Victorino hit .294, stole 21 of 24 and carried a Gold Glove to rightfield. Between strikeouts, Mike Napoli pounded 23 homers and 40 doubles/triples.
Manager John Farrell brought calm to the storming clubhouse and oversaw the team's norming and performing.
And they scooped up a big heaping wad of luck in the bullpen. After Hanrahan and Bailey flamed, Farrell was forced to hand the ball to sophomore righty Junichi Tazawa, veteran southpaw Craig Breslow and 38-year-old castoff Koji Uehara. The trio put the final three innings off limits for opposing teams, with Uehara twirling 74 frames of exquisite futility. Only 43 baserunners managed to get aboard while 101 fanned against him.
Was this all a grand design by Boston brass? Not mostly. They kept their heads after handing Bobby Valentine his and brought to camp a solid nucleus, some complementary parts and a full sentence of question marks. It didn't hurt that all of Yankee Stadium, including the ball boys and Lou Gerhig's monument, got hurt in 2013, and that the Blue Jay experiment crashed like a sack of potatoes. But the real story of the 2013 World Champs is 1-9 hitting, 1-5 pitching, a shutdown bullpen and good health.
As the Red Sox showed, you can do anything if you have your health.
That's the team, that team, won the 2013 World Series.
And they didn't slink into the postseason like the '06 Cardinals and then get hot for two weeks to win the championship. The 2013 Red Sox dominated baseball's toughest division, won the most games in the Majors and pounded their playoff foes.
Huh? How on Earth...?
To answer this question, only ex post facto explanations need apply. No one saw this coming. How could they?
First we have to recognize, as Boston's front office did, that this was not a 93-loss team. Injuries and throwing in the towel led to last year's results. A contending core remained.
Second, the Injury Fairy moved on. In 2013, the Sox remained unexpectedly healthy. David Ortiz swaggered to the plate 600 times. Dustin Pedroia played a full season despite flinging his body around the field. Jacoby Ellsbury continued his odd-year good health pattern. Among the 14 everyday and pitching starters, only pitcher Clay Bucholz failed to dress for a significant chunk of the season. (Of course, both closers brought in by Boston got stung. Andrew Bailey missed most of May and the entire second half; Joel Hanrahan threw seven innings before Tommy John came calling.)
Third, everyone hit. Big Papi led the way with 30 homers and a .959 OPS, but the rest of the lineup, including ostensible backups Daniel Nava, utility man Mike Carp, and even rookie shortstop Jose Iglesias, posted OPS at least 10% above league average. (GM Ben Cherrington, realizing that Iglesias was a mirage who would soon be replaced by Xander Boegarts, flipped him mid-season for prospects.) Only Will Middlebrooks and his .271 OBP faltered, and even he raised that to .329 upon returning from the Minors in August.
Fourth, a couple of key signings worked out reasonably well. Shane Victorino hit .294, stole 21 of 24 and carried a Gold Glove to rightfield. Between strikeouts, Mike Napoli pounded 23 homers and 40 doubles/triples.
Manager John Farrell brought calm to the storming clubhouse and oversaw the team's norming and performing.
And they scooped up a big heaping wad of luck in the bullpen. After Hanrahan and Bailey flamed, Farrell was forced to hand the ball to sophomore righty Junichi Tazawa, veteran southpaw Craig Breslow and 38-year-old castoff Koji Uehara. The trio put the final three innings off limits for opposing teams, with Uehara twirling 74 frames of exquisite futility. Only 43 baserunners managed to get aboard while 101 fanned against him.
Was this all a grand design by Boston brass? Not mostly. They kept their heads after handing Bobby Valentine his and brought to camp a solid nucleus, some complementary parts and a full sentence of question marks. It didn't hurt that all of Yankee Stadium, including the ball boys and Lou Gerhig's monument, got hurt in 2013, and that the Blue Jay experiment crashed like a sack of potatoes. But the real story of the 2013 World Champs is 1-9 hitting, 1-5 pitching, a shutdown bullpen and good health.
As the Red Sox showed, you can do anything if you have your health.
29 October 2013
If You Think It's Over You Haven't Been Paying Attention
With the Sox of Red now ahead 3-2 in the World Series, I'm sure you've heard the following:
"Boston's one win away."
"They're going home with the lead."
"It's over."
"Cardinals would have to win two in Boston."
...and the like.
Anyone expressing these sentiments should have their junior high school diploma burned. Let's review:
The home team has lost three of five games.
The best pitcher in the series has been beaten twice.
The winning run in Game 3 scored on an esoteric rule infraction.
The hero of Game 4 was a fourth outfielder who hadn't hit safely in the Series.
Game 4 ended when a pinch runner type got himself picked off.
The hero of Game 5 was a backup catcher who was batting .111 in the Series.
The Red Sox manager blundered horribly in Game 5 by allowing his pitcher to bat with second and third, one out in the seventh inning of a 2-1 game. His team won anyway.
The World Champions, whoever that will be, must win at least one of the last two games. To do so, they will have to defeat the best team in the other league, a team stacked on the mound, in the bullpen and at the plate. You'd rather be the Sox than the Cards right now, but that could change after the first inning of Wednesday's game.
Let's instead appreciate the beauty of this World Series:
The best two teams are playing.
They are a pair of high-character teams.
They represent two great baseball cities -- maybe the best two in America (and Southeastern Canada.)
Every game but the first has been a nail-biter.
Each team has a charismatic leader -- David Ortiz and Yadier Molina.
The pitchers on both sides, nearly without exception, have mastered their craft. Nearly every pitch has creased the lower edge of the strike zone.
The fickle late-October weather has cooperated.
Two players -- Big Papi and Carlos Beltran -- are using this showcase to burnish their Hall of Fame cases.
The Fat Lady isn't even in costume. Enjoy the last day or two of the 2013 baseball year.
"Boston's one win away."
"They're going home with the lead."
"It's over."
"Cardinals would have to win two in Boston."
...and the like.
Anyone expressing these sentiments should have their junior high school diploma burned. Let's review:
The home team has lost three of five games.
The best pitcher in the series has been beaten twice.
The winning run in Game 3 scored on an esoteric rule infraction.
The hero of Game 4 was a fourth outfielder who hadn't hit safely in the Series.
Game 4 ended when a pinch runner type got himself picked off.
The hero of Game 5 was a backup catcher who was batting .111 in the Series.
The Red Sox manager blundered horribly in Game 5 by allowing his pitcher to bat with second and third, one out in the seventh inning of a 2-1 game. His team won anyway.
The World Champions, whoever that will be, must win at least one of the last two games. To do so, they will have to defeat the best team in the other league, a team stacked on the mound, in the bullpen and at the plate. You'd rather be the Sox than the Cards right now, but that could change after the first inning of Wednesday's game.
Let's instead appreciate the beauty of this World Series:
The best two teams are playing.
They are a pair of high-character teams.
They represent two great baseball cities -- maybe the best two in America (and Southeastern Canada.)
Every game but the first has been a nail-biter.
Each team has a charismatic leader -- David Ortiz and Yadier Molina.
The pitchers on both sides, nearly without exception, have mastered their craft. Nearly every pitch has creased the lower edge of the strike zone.
The fickle late-October weather has cooperated.
Two players -- Big Papi and Carlos Beltran -- are using this showcase to burnish their Hall of Fame cases.
The Fat Lady isn't even in costume. Enjoy the last day or two of the 2013 baseball year.
27 October 2013
Kill the Umpire!
Umpiring has been a central element of the 2013 World Series, but in a turnabout of the usual, it's because the umps have worked scrupulously to get it right.
In Game 1, the second base arbiter gakked up a call and was immediately over-ruled, with his consent, by his five brethren. A wrong was quickly righted and we could all move on with our lives.
With two outs in the ninth of a tied Game 3, the third base umpire immediately, forcefully and correctly called fielder interference and was supported by the plate ump. They made the call even thought the interference might have been unintentional and resulted in an awful conclusion to a scintillating game.
This is (yet) another example of how critical luck is to the outcome of any single game. Little accumulations of luck -- the hardly-noticed variety -- can literally turn a 5-3 loss into a 7-2 win. If luck can alter the outcome of one game so significantly, it's going to play an outsize role in a four-win series.
The 800-pound gorilla of luck favored the Cardinals in Game 3. Where the smaller serendipities fell, it's hard to know. (I thought a generous strike zone forced the Red Sox to swing at unhittable low and outside pitches they otherwise would have ignored. The implications of that, if correct, ripple across the entire game and swamp one game-ending play.) But the bottom line is that they're part of baseball and teams just have to try to deal with them.
Fans and analysts should read the same memo.
In Game 1, the second base arbiter gakked up a call and was immediately over-ruled, with his consent, by his five brethren. A wrong was quickly righted and we could all move on with our lives.
With two outs in the ninth of a tied Game 3, the third base umpire immediately, forcefully and correctly called fielder interference and was supported by the plate ump. They made the call even thought the interference might have been unintentional and resulted in an awful conclusion to a scintillating game.
This is (yet) another example of how critical luck is to the outcome of any single game. Little accumulations of luck -- the hardly-noticed variety -- can literally turn a 5-3 loss into a 7-2 win. If luck can alter the outcome of one game so significantly, it's going to play an outsize role in a four-win series.
The 800-pound gorilla of luck favored the Cardinals in Game 3. Where the smaller serendipities fell, it's hard to know. (I thought a generous strike zone forced the Red Sox to swing at unhittable low and outside pitches they otherwise would have ignored. The implications of that, if correct, ripple across the entire game and swamp one game-ending play.) But the bottom line is that they're part of baseball and teams just have to try to deal with them.
Fans and analysts should read the same memo.
25 October 2013
World Series Observations: Milking The Teet Dry
Conventional Wisdom
The prevailing analysis now is that St. Louis is going to win the World Series because they have three of the five games at home and Wainwright and Wacha pitch at least two of them. The prevailing analysis has apparently never watched a playoff series before.
The team that wins the World Series is the team that gets to four wins first, not the team whose pitchers had a better year or were hotter or had home field advantage. Each game is its own drama. If actual talent dictated how World Series proceed, every series would go seven games.
We Have A Winner!
When St. Louis starter Michael Wacha left Game 2 after pitching the sixth inning, his team trailed 2-1. When Boston starter John Lackey left Game 2 in the seventh, his team led 2-1. The Cards scored three runs of Red Sox relievers in the seventh, making Wacha the winner and Lackey the loser. The game summary sounded like this: Wacha beats Lackey 4-2. Goodnight everybody!
One Wrong Makes A Right
Thank you to the umpires for getting the call right in Game 1. That's all that matters: get the call right. The entire planet can see when a call is wrong on replay . . . except the umpires. A guy in Nepal watching streaming video live at 11 a.m. the next day can watch the replay, but the umpires responsible for getting the calls correct can't. Jenius!
Johnny Gomes Fairy Dust
Johnny Gomes has mysteriously become the new Derek Jeter. Evidently we have to have one. It's worse with Gomes, though, because Jeter at least has talent.
The Fox crew actually made the point that while Gomes can't hit, field, run the bases or contribute much on the diamond, he is pure magic to the Red Sox because of his bonhomie. Cincinnati, Oakland and Boston all made the playoffs because Gomes spread his good cheer around the clubhouse like so much peanut butter. That he performed below replacement level for the Reds and also played for dismal teams in Tampa and Washington, are inconvenient facts that cloudy the picture of a happy-go-lucky leprechaun spreading post-season rainbows from his pot of gold on otherwise moribund teammates.
For the record, Johnny Gomes has played parts of 11 seasons, mostly in a part-time role. He has contributed roughly five wins compared to a replacement player to his employers, or less than half a win per season. His .788 lifetime OPS is about average for an outfielder, but his glove should be euthanized for its own good. He's complemented that with a putrid .350 OPS in five playoff series (though in fairness, he barely gets playing time in those crucial games.)
Gomes isn't a bad player -- he's smacked 149 lifetime home runs -- he's just . . . a guy. No team has ever made the playoffs because Johnny Gomes wears a cape with their emblem. Quite the reverse. He's been fortunate to have some really talented colleagues the last four seasons. Let's try to keep cause and effect straight.
Oh Beautiful Say Can You See
When the series returns to Boston -- if it does -- let's hope that Red Sox brass finally hangs up the Boston Marathon pathos already. They have so milked that teet dry that they had to recycle James Taylor in Game 2, much to his confusion. The bombing was a terrible tragedy and an attack on the city, but it's half a year old. Something like 20,000 people have died in car crashes nationwide since then, roughly 3,000 of them because of morons who couldn't put down their phones.
The prevailing analysis now is that St. Louis is going to win the World Series because they have three of the five games at home and Wainwright and Wacha pitch at least two of them. The prevailing analysis has apparently never watched a playoff series before.
The team that wins the World Series is the team that gets to four wins first, not the team whose pitchers had a better year or were hotter or had home field advantage. Each game is its own drama. If actual talent dictated how World Series proceed, every series would go seven games.
We Have A Winner!
When St. Louis starter Michael Wacha left Game 2 after pitching the sixth inning, his team trailed 2-1. When Boston starter John Lackey left Game 2 in the seventh, his team led 2-1. The Cards scored three runs of Red Sox relievers in the seventh, making Wacha the winner and Lackey the loser. The game summary sounded like this: Wacha beats Lackey 4-2. Goodnight everybody!
One Wrong Makes A Right
Thank you to the umpires for getting the call right in Game 1. That's all that matters: get the call right. The entire planet can see when a call is wrong on replay . . . except the umpires. A guy in Nepal watching streaming video live at 11 a.m. the next day can watch the replay, but the umpires responsible for getting the calls correct can't. Jenius!
Johnny Gomes Fairy Dust
Johnny Gomes has mysteriously become the new Derek Jeter. Evidently we have to have one. It's worse with Gomes, though, because Jeter at least has talent.
The Fox crew actually made the point that while Gomes can't hit, field, run the bases or contribute much on the diamond, he is pure magic to the Red Sox because of his bonhomie. Cincinnati, Oakland and Boston all made the playoffs because Gomes spread his good cheer around the clubhouse like so much peanut butter. That he performed below replacement level for the Reds and also played for dismal teams in Tampa and Washington, are inconvenient facts that cloudy the picture of a happy-go-lucky leprechaun spreading post-season rainbows from his pot of gold on otherwise moribund teammates.
For the record, Johnny Gomes has played parts of 11 seasons, mostly in a part-time role. He has contributed roughly five wins compared to a replacement player to his employers, or less than half a win per season. His .788 lifetime OPS is about average for an outfielder, but his glove should be euthanized for its own good. He's complemented that with a putrid .350 OPS in five playoff series (though in fairness, he barely gets playing time in those crucial games.)
Gomes isn't a bad player -- he's smacked 149 lifetime home runs -- he's just . . . a guy. No team has ever made the playoffs because Johnny Gomes wears a cape with their emblem. Quite the reverse. He's been fortunate to have some really talented colleagues the last four seasons. Let's try to keep cause and effect straight.
Oh Beautiful Say Can You See
When the series returns to Boston -- if it does -- let's hope that Red Sox brass finally hangs up the Boston Marathon pathos already. They have so milked that teet dry that they had to recycle James Taylor in Game 2, much to his confusion. The bombing was a terrible tragedy and an attack on the city, but it's half a year old. Something like 20,000 people have died in car crashes nationwide since then, roughly 3,000 of them because of morons who couldn't put down their phones.
23 October 2013
Who Will Win the World Series
On the day after the San Francisco Giants agreed to pour about $10 million too much into Tim Lincecum's bank account...
(I mean, really, the guy has been a below-average pitcher for the past two years. If the G-men have some reason to believe in a Freaky return, fine, but they don't have to pay him like it. $14.1 million for one year would qualify them for compensation if he bolts, and that's more than he deserves. A two-year, $24.1 million offer would have been more than fair and barely justifiable.)
If you want to have a good laugh, read the "analysis" being done of the World Series. You'll particularly love the ubiquitous position-by-position comparisons, as if Dustin Pedroia lines up across the line of scrimmage from Matt Carpenter.
Any analysis at all of the teams' strengths is largely irrelevant in a seven-game series. The better team is going to lose the series 40% of the time even when it's clear which one is better. A quick perusal of the Cards and Sox reveals that this one really is a toss-up. Here's why:
Both these teams are among the top five hitting teams in their league. Cardinal shortstop Pete Kozma is the only soft spot in either starting lineup. You can expect plenty of offense throughout both lineups -- unless you can't. Predicting how teams will hit in a seven-game series is a fool's errand; witness the playoff series that got the two squads here in which neither showed much life at the plate, absent a pair of grand slams.
Both teams have top five pitching. The Cards have the edge at the top: they own the single best starter in the series in Adam Wainwright. They might own the second-best too if Michael Wacha, who'd thrown all of 60 innings in his Major League career prior to the playoffs, continues his run of terror. Expecting Wacha to strangle Boston the way he did the Dodgers is like expecting a solar eclipse the day after seeing one. The Red Sox are nothing like free-swinging L.A. -- they saw more pitches per game than any team in baseball. In fact, the Sox are nothing like any team Wacha has ever seen. With the DH, at least in his first start, Boston will throw one above-average hitter after another at him. So let's go light on the Michael Wacha predictions.
If the Cards own an edge in the rotation, the Sox take it back in the pen. Trevor Rosenthal is the presumptive closer for St. Louis, but he's no Koji Uehara. Boston also has more lefties in the relief corps and a pair of starters -- Ryan Dempster and Felxi Doubront -- who can eat innings and save the bullpen from wear in a blowout or extra-inning affair.
Defense is more of a wash, primarily because, though neither team commits many errors, neither is stellar with the leather. B-Strong will be further weakened when David Ortiz shuffles to first with his mitt in Busch Stadium. Youngsters in both dugouts will give announcers plenty of opportunities to blame errors on inexperience and butterflies.
One extra game at Fenway conveys a tiny edge to the hometown team, but only if there's a Game 7. We should be so lucky. If there's an emotional lift to be had, they have the marathon bombings, but it's more likely that the statute of limitations is up on that tragedy, which they've been riding all season. The same for any revenge factor St. Louis might feel about the 2004 Series sweep. Only Yadier Molina and manager Mike Matheny (as a player) remain from that Cardinal team. (Only Big Papi from Boston.)
If you think managers make much difference, you're right. A weak tactician can diminish his side's chances. Neither of these relatively inexperienced managers has demonstrated much inclination towards bonehead moves. Frankly, each of them has a bevy of good options on the mound and at the plate.
Bottom line, a pair of teams that beat expectations and tough divisions to post 97 wins, come into the Fall Classic on a roll. Even-Steven, Bob.
Let's just slay one dragon you've already begin seeing around the ballpark. The chatter about how individuals have played in the postseason -- all of nine games for Boston and 11 for St. Louis -- is pure drivel with the predictive value of astrology. Some players may indeed be hot, or cold, or hurt. Most of them though, performed well or poorly for a few games that are now over. Shake the etch-a-sketch and play ball.
Go Saux. Go seven games.
(I mean, really, the guy has been a below-average pitcher for the past two years. If the G-men have some reason to believe in a Freaky return, fine, but they don't have to pay him like it. $14.1 million for one year would qualify them for compensation if he bolts, and that's more than he deserves. A two-year, $24.1 million offer would have been more than fair and barely justifiable.)
If you want to have a good laugh, read the "analysis" being done of the World Series. You'll particularly love the ubiquitous position-by-position comparisons, as if Dustin Pedroia lines up across the line of scrimmage from Matt Carpenter.
Any analysis at all of the teams' strengths is largely irrelevant in a seven-game series. The better team is going to lose the series 40% of the time even when it's clear which one is better. A quick perusal of the Cards and Sox reveals that this one really is a toss-up. Here's why:
Both these teams are among the top five hitting teams in their league. Cardinal shortstop Pete Kozma is the only soft spot in either starting lineup. You can expect plenty of offense throughout both lineups -- unless you can't. Predicting how teams will hit in a seven-game series is a fool's errand; witness the playoff series that got the two squads here in which neither showed much life at the plate, absent a pair of grand slams.
Both teams have top five pitching. The Cards have the edge at the top: they own the single best starter in the series in Adam Wainwright. They might own the second-best too if Michael Wacha, who'd thrown all of 60 innings in his Major League career prior to the playoffs, continues his run of terror. Expecting Wacha to strangle Boston the way he did the Dodgers is like expecting a solar eclipse the day after seeing one. The Red Sox are nothing like free-swinging L.A. -- they saw more pitches per game than any team in baseball. In fact, the Sox are nothing like any team Wacha has ever seen. With the DH, at least in his first start, Boston will throw one above-average hitter after another at him. So let's go light on the Michael Wacha predictions.
If the Cards own an edge in the rotation, the Sox take it back in the pen. Trevor Rosenthal is the presumptive closer for St. Louis, but he's no Koji Uehara. Boston also has more lefties in the relief corps and a pair of starters -- Ryan Dempster and Felxi Doubront -- who can eat innings and save the bullpen from wear in a blowout or extra-inning affair.
Defense is more of a wash, primarily because, though neither team commits many errors, neither is stellar with the leather. B-Strong will be further weakened when David Ortiz shuffles to first with his mitt in Busch Stadium. Youngsters in both dugouts will give announcers plenty of opportunities to blame errors on inexperience and butterflies.
One extra game at Fenway conveys a tiny edge to the hometown team, but only if there's a Game 7. We should be so lucky. If there's an emotional lift to be had, they have the marathon bombings, but it's more likely that the statute of limitations is up on that tragedy, which they've been riding all season. The same for any revenge factor St. Louis might feel about the 2004 Series sweep. Only Yadier Molina and manager Mike Matheny (as a player) remain from that Cardinal team. (Only Big Papi from Boston.)
If you think managers make much difference, you're right. A weak tactician can diminish his side's chances. Neither of these relatively inexperienced managers has demonstrated much inclination towards bonehead moves. Frankly, each of them has a bevy of good options on the mound and at the plate.
Bottom line, a pair of teams that beat expectations and tough divisions to post 97 wins, come into the Fall Classic on a roll. Even-Steven, Bob.
Let's just slay one dragon you've already begin seeing around the ballpark. The chatter about how individuals have played in the postseason -- all of nine games for Boston and 11 for St. Louis -- is pure drivel with the predictive value of astrology. Some players may indeed be hot, or cold, or hurt. Most of them though, performed well or poorly for a few games that are now over. Shake the etch-a-sketch and play ball.
Go Saux. Go seven games.
17 October 2013
Random Playoff Noodlings
It's been heartening to hear the sports media's temperance with respect to the Cardinals' 3-1 series lead (now 3-2 as this is being written). In previous years they would have been presiding over the Dodgers' funeral. But the analysis I've heard has all noted how St. Lou blew a 3-1 NLCS lead against the eventual champs just last season. Just because the Fat Lady is warming up doesn't mean she's got a gig tonight.
On the flip side, how about all those pitching certainties. The first four starters to lose decisions in the league championship series this year: Lester, Kershaw, Verlander, Wainwright. Pitching matchups, like home field, convey advantages, not guarantees.
Evidence we still have a long way to go: Fox still talks incessantly about player performance in the postseason, as if Shane Victorino never went 9 for 35 in eight regular season games. Until a player has accumulated 100 postseason at bats or 45 postseason innings, can we stop talking about their "clutchness" or "postseason performance?" Are Miguel Cabrera's hitting woes the result of low moral fiber or just injury? How about Prince Fielder? Do Cardinal batters suffer from a lack of clutchness in the playoffs or from Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu? Is Michael Wacha a great postseason pitcher or an amazing rookie who is still improving? The only certain truth is that I don't know and neither do you.
Some people don't like 1-0 playoff games. Some people are Communists. My advice to them is to watch roller derby.
America passed on an opportunity to vote Koji Uehara onto the All-Star team this year in the final selection ballot. The Sox closer allowed a 1.09 ERA with 42 baserunners and 101 whiffs in 74 innings. Would America like its vote back?
Mike Napoli was batting .250 with a home run in the postseason this year going into Game 5 of Boston's series with Detroit. Not very clutch. Then he went 3 for 4 in Game 5 and now he's batting .375 with two big flies and an .875 SLG. Clutch!
One thing missing from the riveting playoffs this year is a Godsend. October weather in Boston, Detroit and St. Louis has provided evidence that the big man in the sky loves America's pastime. Let's hope the World Series isn't on past His bedtime.
On the flip side, how about all those pitching certainties. The first four starters to lose decisions in the league championship series this year: Lester, Kershaw, Verlander, Wainwright. Pitching matchups, like home field, convey advantages, not guarantees.
Evidence we still have a long way to go: Fox still talks incessantly about player performance in the postseason, as if Shane Victorino never went 9 for 35 in eight regular season games. Until a player has accumulated 100 postseason at bats or 45 postseason innings, can we stop talking about their "clutchness" or "postseason performance?" Are Miguel Cabrera's hitting woes the result of low moral fiber or just injury? How about Prince Fielder? Do Cardinal batters suffer from a lack of clutchness in the playoffs or from Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu? Is Michael Wacha a great postseason pitcher or an amazing rookie who is still improving? The only certain truth is that I don't know and neither do you.
Some people don't like 1-0 playoff games. Some people are Communists. My advice to them is to watch roller derby.
America passed on an opportunity to vote Koji Uehara onto the All-Star team this year in the final selection ballot. The Sox closer allowed a 1.09 ERA with 42 baserunners and 101 whiffs in 74 innings. Would America like its vote back?
Mike Napoli was batting .250 with a home run in the postseason this year going into Game 5 of Boston's series with Detroit. Not very clutch. Then he went 3 for 4 in Game 5 and now he's batting .375 with two big flies and an .875 SLG. Clutch!
One thing missing from the riveting playoffs this year is a Godsend. October weather in Boston, Detroit and St. Louis has provided evidence that the big man in the sky loves America's pastime. Let's hope the World Series isn't on past His bedtime.
13 October 2013
Jim Leyland Doesn't Give a Rat's Ass About a No Hitter
Speculation last night in Game 1 of the ALCS about whether Tiger manager Jim Leyland would pull Anibal Sanchez following the sixth inning after 115 pitches.
After all, they noted, he had a no-hitter going.
They forgot to mention that a group of jellyfish is called a smack. And that the average February temperature in the Nunavut territories is minus-28 degrees. And that bookkeeper is the only word in English with three consecutive double letters.
All of these are facts. All of them are irrelevant to Jim Leyland's decision to pull a pitcher whose arm was coming off in Game 1 of the playoff series whose winner plays for the World Championship.
The Fox announcers decided Sanchez could go because he had only completed six innings, not eight. He wasn't close to completing the no-hitter.
Memo to them: Jim Leyland would have pulled Sanchez with two outs in the ninth and two strikes on the batter if he thought it would improve his chances of winning the game. Jim Leyland's sole concern right now is to win a World Series in Detroit. An Anibal Sanchez no-hitter is as much his concern as sales of the next Killers' album.
And that is why Jim Leyland is managing a team in the ALCS and Tim McCarver is an announcer on Fox.
After all, they noted, he had a no-hitter going.
They forgot to mention that a group of jellyfish is called a smack. And that the average February temperature in the Nunavut territories is minus-28 degrees. And that bookkeeper is the only word in English with three consecutive double letters.
All of these are facts. All of them are irrelevant to Jim Leyland's decision to pull a pitcher whose arm was coming off in Game 1 of the playoff series whose winner plays for the World Championship.
The Fox announcers decided Sanchez could go because he had only completed six innings, not eight. He wasn't close to completing the no-hitter.
Memo to them: Jim Leyland would have pulled Sanchez with two outs in the ninth and two strikes on the batter if he thought it would improve his chances of winning the game. Jim Leyland's sole concern right now is to win a World Series in Detroit. An Anibal Sanchez no-hitter is as much his concern as sales of the next Killers' album.
And that is why Jim Leyland is managing a team in the ALCS and Tim McCarver is an announcer on Fox.
12 October 2013
The Magic Sauce in St. Louis
At the end of 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals won a dramatic World Series anchored by Albert Pujols, the best player on the planet; Lance Berkman and his .959 OPS (league average, .720); Matt Holliday (.912 OPS); backstop exraordinaire Yadier Molina; starters Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, and Jaime Garcia, a combined 38-24, 3.46; and closer Jason Motte. Hall of Famer Tony LaRussa skippered the over-achievers in his Major League swan song.
Then Pujols skipped town for a pot of gold, LaRussa retired, Berkman moved on, Motte fell apart, Carpenter ordered a new ulnar collateral ligament and Lohse cashed in on a career year. They're all gone. Jaime Garcia has pitched 177 innings in the intervening two years. Only Holliday and Molina stayed put and kept producing.
The Cardinals did not dip heavily into free agent waters to replace all that talent. They brought in Carlos Beltran and some spare parts. So as you can imagine, the franchise has declined...to pause in its pursuit of another title. They won the toughest division in baseball, achieved the best record in the National League and now pose a World Series return threat.
If you're tired of the Redbirds, join the club. But don't fail to appreciate this unbelievable franchise, the best in the game at producing winning teams without spending significant fractions of a billion dollars. In two years, they have developed an MVP-candidate second baseman (Matt Carpenter), a post-season hero third baseman (David Freese), an RBI-machine first baseman (Allen Craig), a solid center fielder (Jon Jay), and possibly the best of them all, a slugging first baseman with 17 home runs in half a rookie season (Matt Adams).
And that's less than half the story. After welcoming back Adam Wainwright following TJ surgery, St. Louis turned into a pitcher nursery this season, with six hurlers under 26 throwing 50 innings or more impressively. That doesn't count 23-year-old lefty Kevin Siegrist, who only accumulated 40 frames, during which he allowed two runs on 17 hits and fanned 50. Just 22, rookie Shelby Miller bollixed NL batters to the tune of 15-9, 3.06 in the role of #2 starter.
It's impossible from this perch to determine whether GM John Mozeliak is a brilliant drafter or whether the franchise, in the shadow of Branch Rickey, excels at developing talent. Likely a combination. Either way, the Cards were the NL's second-best hitting and fifth-best pitching squad in the NL this year, en route to 97 wins.
It's funny to think about the money-greased Dodgers as upstarts against the child care center representing St. Louis, but with three World Series and two League Championship appearances in the last decade, the Cardinals present an aura of steady accomplishment. Just remember they're doing it not with Benjamins but with brains.
Then Pujols skipped town for a pot of gold, LaRussa retired, Berkman moved on, Motte fell apart, Carpenter ordered a new ulnar collateral ligament and Lohse cashed in on a career year. They're all gone. Jaime Garcia has pitched 177 innings in the intervening two years. Only Holliday and Molina stayed put and kept producing.
The Cardinals did not dip heavily into free agent waters to replace all that talent. They brought in Carlos Beltran and some spare parts. So as you can imagine, the franchise has declined...to pause in its pursuit of another title. They won the toughest division in baseball, achieved the best record in the National League and now pose a World Series return threat.
If you're tired of the Redbirds, join the club. But don't fail to appreciate this unbelievable franchise, the best in the game at producing winning teams without spending significant fractions of a billion dollars. In two years, they have developed an MVP-candidate second baseman (Matt Carpenter), a post-season hero third baseman (David Freese), an RBI-machine first baseman (Allen Craig), a solid center fielder (Jon Jay), and possibly the best of them all, a slugging first baseman with 17 home runs in half a rookie season (Matt Adams).
And that's less than half the story. After welcoming back Adam Wainwright following TJ surgery, St. Louis turned into a pitcher nursery this season, with six hurlers under 26 throwing 50 innings or more impressively. That doesn't count 23-year-old lefty Kevin Siegrist, who only accumulated 40 frames, during which he allowed two runs on 17 hits and fanned 50. Just 22, rookie Shelby Miller bollixed NL batters to the tune of 15-9, 3.06 in the role of #2 starter.
It's impossible from this perch to determine whether GM John Mozeliak is a brilliant drafter or whether the franchise, in the shadow of Branch Rickey, excels at developing talent. Likely a combination. Either way, the Cards were the NL's second-best hitting and fifth-best pitching squad in the NL this year, en route to 97 wins.
It's funny to think about the money-greased Dodgers as upstarts against the child care center representing St. Louis, but with three World Series and two League Championship appearances in the last decade, the Cardinals present an aura of steady accomplishment. Just remember they're doing it not with Benjamins but with brains.
05 October 2013
Hey, Who Took My Momentum?!
After all these years of inquiries about the nature of this effable quality so many call "momentum," Major League Baseball has finally provided clarity. Here is today's headline about the St. Louis-Pittsburgh NLDS series, knotted at a game apiece following the Bucs' 7-1 victory.
Strategy Shifts Momentum in Pirates' Favor
So there you go. Momentum is . . . a win. A single nine-inning triumph, according to the official mouthpiece of MLB, constitutes momentum. A team secures one of these on-field victories, much as it had done 94 times during the season, including 10 times against the opponent in question, and it suddenly has this . . . thing, momentum.
Before that one victory, evidently, the Pirates did not have momentum. In fact, it appears that Major League Baseball asserts that the Cardinals, with their 9-1 win the previous day, took custody of momentum until it was transferred the following evening to Pittsburgh, much like Baby Veronica recently got shuffled from her adoptive parents in South Carolina to her biological father in Oklahmoa and back to the adoptive couple. Apparently, the Capobiancos now have momentum, as well as Veronica. The difference there is that their fight for momentum required court rulings, bench warrants, extradition requests, arrest threats and the intervention of an entire Indian tribe, whereas the Pirates merely had to build a lead and get three outs in the ninth.
The two teams will play again, twice, in PNC Park, where, we are to infer, momentum will be up for grabs, like the Little Brown Jug in the Michigan-Minnesota football rivalry. The magic power of Pittsburgh's momentous Game 2 victory will shrivel to irrelevance as momentum is bestowed upon Game 3's winner, and then presumably transferred back again after Game 4 and so on. If the series goes back and forth to a deciding Game 5, momentum will have been tossed about like a hot potato until it suddenly evaporates in the wake of actual elimination.
God help poor momentum in a back-and-forth seven-game series. It must get vertigo spinning around from one club to the other until finally falling exhausted into the prevailing dugout.
Before PETA and the ACLU get hot and bothered about the inhumane treatment of momentum, there is good news. This wanton abuse of momentum is a figment of everyone's imagination because . . . momentum is a figment of everyone's imagination. In a five-game series, the survivor must win three games, not two and not one. Winning the first game does not convey any special advantage except banking one of those three wins. Being up two games-to-none, or two-to-one, or whatever, has proved pretty thin gruel (see: 2012 San Francisco Giants) for teams unable to close the deal. Each game is a separate entity beholden to that day's starting pitchers, game conditions, lineups, tweaks of strategy, luck, more luck and a host of other factors.
Someone has to win Game 3. What they will have then is two wins and nothing more. They will still need to outscore the other team in one of the two remaining contests, and momentum is not going to help them one iota.
Strategy Shifts Momentum in Pirates' Favor
So there you go. Momentum is . . . a win. A single nine-inning triumph, according to the official mouthpiece of MLB, constitutes momentum. A team secures one of these on-field victories, much as it had done 94 times during the season, including 10 times against the opponent in question, and it suddenly has this . . . thing, momentum.
Before that one victory, evidently, the Pirates did not have momentum. In fact, it appears that Major League Baseball asserts that the Cardinals, with their 9-1 win the previous day, took custody of momentum until it was transferred the following evening to Pittsburgh, much like Baby Veronica recently got shuffled from her adoptive parents in South Carolina to her biological father in Oklahmoa and back to the adoptive couple. Apparently, the Capobiancos now have momentum, as well as Veronica. The difference there is that their fight for momentum required court rulings, bench warrants, extradition requests, arrest threats and the intervention of an entire Indian tribe, whereas the Pirates merely had to build a lead and get three outs in the ninth.
The two teams will play again, twice, in PNC Park, where, we are to infer, momentum will be up for grabs, like the Little Brown Jug in the Michigan-Minnesota football rivalry. The magic power of Pittsburgh's momentous Game 2 victory will shrivel to irrelevance as momentum is bestowed upon Game 3's winner, and then presumably transferred back again after Game 4 and so on. If the series goes back and forth to a deciding Game 5, momentum will have been tossed about like a hot potato until it suddenly evaporates in the wake of actual elimination.
God help poor momentum in a back-and-forth seven-game series. It must get vertigo spinning around from one club to the other until finally falling exhausted into the prevailing dugout.
Before PETA and the ACLU get hot and bothered about the inhumane treatment of momentum, there is good news. This wanton abuse of momentum is a figment of everyone's imagination because . . . momentum is a figment of everyone's imagination. In a five-game series, the survivor must win three games, not two and not one. Winning the first game does not convey any special advantage except banking one of those three wins. Being up two games-to-none, or two-to-one, or whatever, has proved pretty thin gruel (see: 2012 San Francisco Giants) for teams unable to close the deal. Each game is a separate entity beholden to that day's starting pitchers, game conditions, lineups, tweaks of strategy, luck, more luck and a host of other factors.
Someone has to win Game 3. What they will have then is two wins and nothing more. They will still need to outscore the other team in one of the two remaining contests, and momentum is not going to help them one iota.
04 October 2013
The Firing of Dusty Baker
Current Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty, who served for 14 sparkling years in the same position with St. Louis, has forgotten more about baseball than the entire membership of Rho Beta Iota fraternity will ever know. So if he actually did fire Dusty Baker today after six seasons because the Reds skidded to six consecutive losses to end the season, he should be rushed to the hospital for an emergency brain scan.
Jocketty has been too successful for too long to make a move so utterly lacking in sense that even a Kardashian should know better. Even great teams endure winning lulls during the course of a long season. Judging a field general's 972-game performance with the club by one bad week (against a formidable and highly-motivated opponent) is like demoting a star player because he's oh-for his last five games.
The silliness is even more fundamental than that. Evaluating a manager based on his team's record is like appraising an movie actor based on the screenplay. In each case, their performance has some impact on the final product, but it's vastly less important than other considerations.
In reporting Baker's firing, many sports news outlets examined his managerial won-loss record, as if that would reveal something about his managerial acumen. It hardly needs to be explained that managers are entirely dependent on their teams' talent; Moe, Larry and Curly could have skippered the 1998 Yankees to the World Series while this year's Astros were beyond the help of Jimmy Dugan himself.
Like an iceberg, much of a manager's value is accrued out of view. But after 20 years in the position with the Giants, Cubs and Reds, two things are clear about him: 1. players love playing for him and 2. he might be the worst tactician in the history of the sport.
If a team values stubborn intransigence in their chief on-field strategist, Dusty is their man. He refuses to acknowledge the importance of on-base percentage, despite its objective truth. He cost the Reds dozens of runs over six years by leading off speedsters with abysmal OBP and he cost an impressive list of top-shelf pitchers (notably Kerry Wood and Mark Prior) significant portions of their careers by almost-literally working their arms off.
Which makes his firing all the more puzzling. Dusty's entire managerial career is a miracle, a 20-year exaltation of rampant ignorance, validated three times by the very lords of ignorance -- baseball writers -- with Manager of the Year awards. The truth is, Dusty should never have been hired, but once in place never ceased being what he was hired to be.
As is often the case, all this is much more an indictment of the people paid to analyze the game than the people who perform on the field. They will continue to use won-loss records as a proxy for real evaluation tools without ever acknowledging their utter futility. As for Dusty Baker, his teams won 90+ games three of the last four years. Some desperate front office, like Seattle's, will be sufficiently bamboozled to hire him so that he can bat Neifi Perez leadoff.
Jocketty has been too successful for too long to make a move so utterly lacking in sense that even a Kardashian should know better. Even great teams endure winning lulls during the course of a long season. Judging a field general's 972-game performance with the club by one bad week (against a formidable and highly-motivated opponent) is like demoting a star player because he's oh-for his last five games.
The silliness is even more fundamental than that. Evaluating a manager based on his team's record is like appraising an movie actor based on the screenplay. In each case, their performance has some impact on the final product, but it's vastly less important than other considerations.
In reporting Baker's firing, many sports news outlets examined his managerial won-loss record, as if that would reveal something about his managerial acumen. It hardly needs to be explained that managers are entirely dependent on their teams' talent; Moe, Larry and Curly could have skippered the 1998 Yankees to the World Series while this year's Astros were beyond the help of Jimmy Dugan himself.
Like an iceberg, much of a manager's value is accrued out of view. But after 20 years in the position with the Giants, Cubs and Reds, two things are clear about him: 1. players love playing for him and 2. he might be the worst tactician in the history of the sport.
If a team values stubborn intransigence in their chief on-field strategist, Dusty is their man. He refuses to acknowledge the importance of on-base percentage, despite its objective truth. He cost the Reds dozens of runs over six years by leading off speedsters with abysmal OBP and he cost an impressive list of top-shelf pitchers (notably Kerry Wood and Mark Prior) significant portions of their careers by almost-literally working their arms off.
Which makes his firing all the more puzzling. Dusty's entire managerial career is a miracle, a 20-year exaltation of rampant ignorance, validated three times by the very lords of ignorance -- baseball writers -- with Manager of the Year awards. The truth is, Dusty should never have been hired, but once in place never ceased being what he was hired to be.
As is often the case, all this is much more an indictment of the people paid to analyze the game than the people who perform on the field. They will continue to use won-loss records as a proxy for real evaluation tools without ever acknowledging their utter futility. As for Dusty Baker, his teams won 90+ games three of the last four years. Some desperate front office, like Seattle's, will be sufficiently bamboozled to hire him so that he can bat Neifi Perez leadoff.
30 September 2013
And Now, The Tournament Begins
In case you thought the 2013 baseball season is over, the Rangers and Rays beg to differ. They will battle tonight in Arlington for the right to fly to Cleveland and challenge the Indians Wednesday for the opportunity to fly to Boston and face a rested Red Sox team Friday with their best pitcher (and possibly second best) unavailable.
On Tuesday, the Pirates and Reds will join the fray. Earning one of the Wild Card berths is certainly a substantial achievement, but the euphoria gives way to disappointment with jarring speed for the loser of the play-in game.
Only then does the tournament begin. Like hockey, baseball does not have a championship; it has a tournament in which a team's regular-season exploits are largely meaningless and the results essentially random. Hockey's playoffs are doubly disconnected because they are open to half the league, including the disappointments, the rebuilders and the inconsistent. In baseball, at least, only the best teams are afforded opportunities to compete for the title.
Still, only three of the last 17 World Champions have had baseball's best record over the 162-game season, while five Wild Cards have won the title.
You will hear ad naseum (actually, hearing this once is ad naseum, because it's patently false) that teams need to have "momentum" or a "hot hand" or simply be playing well entering the playoffs in order to emerge victorious. This shibboleth is repeated despite the 2006 World Series in which both teams (St. Louis and Detroit) entered with sub-.500 second-half records. The Tigers were swept in the season's final series by last-place KC to drop into the Wild Card. The Cardinals lost seven in a row the week before the playoffs commenced.
Last season, the eventual champs fell behind in the best-of-five division series two games to none before storming back, then dropped four of five in the NLCS before sweeping the remaining three games. That's not so much "hot" or "cold" as random.
In fact, research shows that there is almost no correlation at all between playing well at season's end and winning it all. Indeed, there's little correlation between anything and playoff magic, which is why the playoffs are both a lottery and impossible to predict except by dumb luck.
When the Rays and Rangers tussle tonight in their loser-go-home affair, both teams will enter the series "hot" and "cold." Texas lost its grip on the division and then the Wild Card by dropping 12 of 13 in the waning weeks of the season. In the final week, they rebounded for six wins in a row. Tampa Bay charged to the top of the Wild Card standings with a seven-game win streak before losing a pair that dropped them into a tie with Texas. One of these teams will survive and will thus be dubbed, ex post facto, on a roll. If you're a betting person, caveat emptor.
Except for the Cardinals, every team is at least six years from a championship and has suffered at least one indignity since. After St. Louis (2011) and Boston (2007), the most recent champion city is Atlanta (1995), followed by Cincinnati (1990), Oakland (1989), L.A. (1988), Detroit (1984), Pittsburgh (1979) and Cleveland (1948). Texas and Tampa Bay have never tasted the sweet fruit of victory. So for all but Cards and Red Sox fans, a World Championship would be a refreshing novelty.
Let's go all of them!
29 September 2013
The NL MVP: Stolen By A Pirate
Yadier Molina is the Adonis of backstops. He commands the defense, terrorizes baserunners, and frames pitches. He rakes like an outfielder -- .316 BA with 55 extra base hits. And as a catcher, he's well-nigh irreplaceable. (His understudy hit .205 with an OPS 300 points lower.)
The green eye shades, however, don't consistently hold Molina's skill set in high regard. Some fielding metrics even ding him for his glove work. None of the valuation systems seem to credit him appropriately for his prowess at the bat despite squatting for 1300 innings a year. Consequently, you would not find Molina's name on the short list of MVP candidates in Seamhead Land. Baseball Prospectus credits Molina with 4.0 wins against replacement. Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference have him at 5.4 and 5.7 respectively.
This seems preposterous for a player who plays a role in literally every single pitch, and it leaves us all wondering how else to value him. Compare him, for example, to teammate Matt Carpenter, who covered second and third base while playing almost every Cardinal game and compiling a .325/.391/.486 line, with a league-leading 55 doubles. Carpenter's 41 point-advantage in OPS over 25 more games are certainly a yawning gap, particularly from a player staffing a low-offense position. Carpenter is credited with about one extra win compared to Molina.
When considering the MVP the one and only consideration should be how much value the player brought to his team. There is one statistic, variously called Wins Against Replacement (WAR) or Wins Against Replacement Player (WARP), that is designed to compile all the elements -- on-base ability, power-hitting, baserunning, defense -- multiplied by the level of competition and the offensive proclivities of the relevant ballparks, all while accounting for replacement level at the player's position. On that last item, a first baseman or right fielder is held to a higher hitting standard than a shortstop or catcher.
We could all take the day off if that one statistic picked the crop, bundled it and carried it off to market. But defensive statistics are still crawling and learning their ABCs; we have limited faith in them. So let's view the candidates through the statistical lens of offense, and season the results with defense.
Matt Carpenter, 2B/3B .325/.391/.486, .877 OPS 66.4 VORP good defensive flexibility
Andrew McCutchen, CF .317/.404/.508, .912 OPS 65.0 VORP highlight-reel defense
Shin-soo Choo, CF .286/.424/.464 .888 OPS 63.1 VORP a RF masquerading as a CF
Joey Votto, 1B .306/.436/.492, .928 OPS 55.8 VORP Gold Glove defense
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B .302/.401/.553, .954 OPS 53.0 VORP superb defense
Jayson Werth, RF .318/.398/.535 .933 OPS 44.8 VORP average outfielder
Buster Posey, C .294/.369/.451 .820 OPS 44.1 VORP good D at key position
Yadier Molina, C .319/.359/.477, .836 OPS 40.6 VORP elite D at key position
Freddie Freeman, 1B .319/.396/.502 .898 OPS 39.3 VORP good defense
Carlos Gomez, CF .325/.391/.486 .877 OPS 38.7 VORP superb D at key position
(There is WAR/WARP for pitchers, which filters out defense and examines the underlying performance of the thrower. It's a slow-moving revolution in which you should not invest short-term money.)
There are a lot of legitimate contenders here and reasonable people may pick different names for the top of their ballot. Goldschmidt owns the slugging, OPS, HR and RBI titles for 2013. Votto and Choo are 1-2 in OBP and should be expecting Valentine's chocolates from Brandon Phillips. Carpenter's ability to cover the corner gives manager Mike Matheny options. Posey and Molina have value that seems to elude the system.
But the best MVP catch is The Cutch, Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen. He hits, runs (27 of 37 steals) and flashes leather. He's the key cog in the Bucs' playoff push, turning it on (1.015 OPS) in the last two months. For his mix of skills McCutchen is also the NL leader in WAR, worth 8.2 wins against replacement, a full win better than anyone else.
Before departing, a shout out to three star performers who weren't on the field enough. Hanley Ramirez and David Wright have their bodies to blame; Yasiel Puig languished in Chattanooga for 40 games. Extrapolated to a full season, that trio would rank 1-2-3 respectively in the MVP race.
Ramirez, the Dodger shortstop, posted an OPS over 1000 and was worth five wins in just 86 games. And remember how the league would catch up to Puig? Well, it's catching its breath instead. He ended the season at .321/.392/.537 and 42 extra base hits in less than 2/3rds of a season. Wait until he learns the game...
The green eye shades, however, don't consistently hold Molina's skill set in high regard. Some fielding metrics even ding him for his glove work. None of the valuation systems seem to credit him appropriately for his prowess at the bat despite squatting for 1300 innings a year. Consequently, you would not find Molina's name on the short list of MVP candidates in Seamhead Land. Baseball Prospectus credits Molina with 4.0 wins against replacement. Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference have him at 5.4 and 5.7 respectively.
This seems preposterous for a player who plays a role in literally every single pitch, and it leaves us all wondering how else to value him. Compare him, for example, to teammate Matt Carpenter, who covered second and third base while playing almost every Cardinal game and compiling a .325/.391/.486 line, with a league-leading 55 doubles. Carpenter's 41 point-advantage in OPS over 25 more games are certainly a yawning gap, particularly from a player staffing a low-offense position. Carpenter is credited with about one extra win compared to Molina.
When considering the MVP the one and only consideration should be how much value the player brought to his team. There is one statistic, variously called Wins Against Replacement (WAR) or Wins Against Replacement Player (WARP), that is designed to compile all the elements -- on-base ability, power-hitting, baserunning, defense -- multiplied by the level of competition and the offensive proclivities of the relevant ballparks, all while accounting for replacement level at the player's position. On that last item, a first baseman or right fielder is held to a higher hitting standard than a shortstop or catcher.
We could all take the day off if that one statistic picked the crop, bundled it and carried it off to market. But defensive statistics are still crawling and learning their ABCs; we have limited faith in them. So let's view the candidates through the statistical lens of offense, and season the results with defense.
Matt Carpenter, 2B/3B .325/.391/.486, .877 OPS 66.4 VORP good defensive flexibility
Andrew McCutchen, CF .317/.404/.508, .912 OPS 65.0 VORP highlight-reel defense
Shin-soo Choo, CF .286/.424/.464 .888 OPS 63.1 VORP a RF masquerading as a CF
Joey Votto, 1B .306/.436/.492, .928 OPS 55.8 VORP Gold Glove defense
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B .302/.401/.553, .954 OPS 53.0 VORP superb defense
Jayson Werth, RF .318/.398/.535 .933 OPS 44.8 VORP average outfielder
Buster Posey, C .294/.369/.451 .820 OPS 44.1 VORP good D at key position
Yadier Molina, C .319/.359/.477, .836 OPS 40.6 VORP elite D at key position
Freddie Freeman, 1B .319/.396/.502 .898 OPS 39.3 VORP good defense
Carlos Gomez, CF .325/.391/.486 .877 OPS 38.7 VORP superb D at key position
(There is WAR/WARP for pitchers, which filters out defense and examines the underlying performance of the thrower. It's a slow-moving revolution in which you should not invest short-term money.)
There are a lot of legitimate contenders here and reasonable people may pick different names for the top of their ballot. Goldschmidt owns the slugging, OPS, HR and RBI titles for 2013. Votto and Choo are 1-2 in OBP and should be expecting Valentine's chocolates from Brandon Phillips. Carpenter's ability to cover the corner gives manager Mike Matheny options. Posey and Molina have value that seems to elude the system.
But the best MVP catch is The Cutch, Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen. He hits, runs (27 of 37 steals) and flashes leather. He's the key cog in the Bucs' playoff push, turning it on (1.015 OPS) in the last two months. For his mix of skills McCutchen is also the NL leader in WAR, worth 8.2 wins against replacement, a full win better than anyone else.
Before departing, a shout out to three star performers who weren't on the field enough. Hanley Ramirez and David Wright have their bodies to blame; Yasiel Puig languished in Chattanooga for 40 games. Extrapolated to a full season, that trio would rank 1-2-3 respectively in the MVP race.
Ramirez, the Dodger shortstop, posted an OPS over 1000 and was worth five wins in just 86 games. And remember how the league would catch up to Puig? Well, it's catching its breath instead. He ended the season at .321/.392/.537 and 42 extra base hits in less than 2/3rds of a season. Wait until he learns the game...
28 September 2013
The AL MVP: 2012 Redux
Should we hold it against an MVP candidate that he hit just .265 with two extra base hits in September crunch time? How about that he did most of his damage before the All-Star break? Or do we acknowledge that a great May (when he hit .379 with 21 extra base hits) helps his team win just as much as a big finish? Isn't the MVP award a referendum on an entire season, irrespective of the chronology of the performance?
Miguel Cabrera led the league in batting average, on-base average, slugging percentage and OPS. He hit 44 home runs, second most in the American League. He batted .635/.850/.1.375 on 3-1 counts (40 of 'em) and .397/.529/.782 with runners in scoring position. His 2013 performance has been historic, especially in light of his 2012 domination.
So forget about his anti-climatic last month. The reason that Miguel Cabrera isn't the American League MVP is that over the course of the season, he wasn't the best player.
Yes, here we go again.
Whether Cabrera is the best hitter in the world is about as debatable as whether the U.S. has too much debt. He's hit .338 with 88 homers and 276 RBI with an OPS over 1000 over the past two seasons. (The debt, on the other hand, is hitting 20 trillion.) Baseball is more than hitting, though. It's baserunning and defense too, and Cabrera is below average in both areas. He's among the league leaders in grounding into double plays and waddles the extra base less often than most men on base. On defense, well, he's a world-class hitter. If we put his defense and baserunning in batting average terms, Cabrera would be a .240 baserunner and a .220 fielder at third.
There's an MVP candidate -- Mike Trout, of course -- who, like MIguel Cabrera, is a terror at the plate. He's hit .323/.431/.554 this year. Where Cabrera has performed 98% above average at the plate, Trout has performed 78% better. That's a big difference. But there's a gaping chasm between Trout and Cabrera in the other aspects of the game. Trout has stolen 33 bases in 40 tries, among baseball's best. The nascent base running metrics suggest he's elite at taking the extra base as well.
In the field, Trout is enough of a hit-killer to patrol the critical central pasture. The defensive difference between a mediocre center fielder and a mediocre third baseman is as wide as Cabrera himself. Trout is rated anywhere between just another guy and God's gift to turf by the computers, the scouts and the highlight reels. Even by the least generous accounting, Miguel Cabrera can't pack Trout's lunch with the glove.
Add it all up, divide by the level of competition they face, multiply by generosity of their home park and you get this: Mike Trout has been the most valuable to his team this year. Consider three different measuring systems using wins against replacement:
Baseball-Reference
Trout 9.1
Cabrera 7.1.
Baseball Prospectus
Trout 10.3
Cabrera 7.4
Fangraphs
Trout 10.2
Cabrera 7.7
By some accounting, Cabrera isn't even the second-best player in the league this year. Josh Donaldson, Oakland's slick-fielding third baseman, has hit .302/.383/.502 with 24 homers in that trench in Oakland. Baseball-Reference has him nearly a run more valuable than Cabrera. They also rate the Atlas of New York, Robinson Cano, at 7.6 WAR for his .313/.383/.514 performance from the keystone.
Other legitimate candidates include Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis (.287/.370/.634 with 53 homers), Texas cornerman Adrian Beltre (.315/.372/.506 with 29 HR) Boston DH David Ortiz (.308/.395/.565 and 30 HR), Cleveland second baseman Jason Kipnis (.281/.363/.487 with 29 of 36 steals) and Blue Jay diamond-crosser Edwin Encarnacion (.272/.370/.534 with 36 HR). Season with pitchers if you like, but they have their own award.
Mike Trout is the most valuable player in the American League again this year and it isn't particularly close. In the voting that actually bestows the award, if the race is between the tortoise, Cabrera, and the hare, Trout, we know how it will end. Because there is still a majority of sportswriters whose version of baseball is a fairy tale.
Next time, the NL MVP.
24 September 2013
Of Ryne and Reason
Probably the most misunderstood concept among homo sapiens is the difference between correlation and causation. Correlation is when you sit at home and yell "swing!" just before Chris Davis cranks up and smashes a home run. Causation is when Davis extends his arms and blasts one out.
The Phillies yesterday signed interim-manager Ryne Sandberg to a three-year contract. GM Ruben Amaro had been auditioning the Hall of Fame keystoner over the last 34 games and liked what he saw.
The speculation immediately fell upon the Phillies' record, which had rebounded to 18-16 under Sandberg after dropping a string of games and any pretense of a playoff challenge in Charlie Manuel's final days as manager.
No doubt Amaro cared about how the team responded to Sandberg, both in the clubhouse and on the field. If they folded up the tent upon his arrival, Amaro might have balked at a new contract. But, contrary to accepted wisdom that they're generally ungrateful prima donnas, most Major League baseball players have sufficient pride and professionalism to work hard through Game 162.
There are myriad reasons why teams slump and rebound; certainly an injection of new blood at the top might have had something to do with that. A manager creates a culture in the clubhouse and that can infect everything the team does. It's unlikely he can have that kind of impact, though, in the first, say, 20 games, which means most of the Phils' record under Sandberg's skippering is just happenstance. (They won nine of the new commander's 14 games but have gone 9-11 since.) Besides, if novelty helped boost the club, they won't ever derive that benefit again as long as Sandberg is manager.
Sandberg will be tested for real next when this reality strikes: the chickens of two World Series appearances are coming home to roost. Philadelphia has an expensive, aging and largely ineffective roster and it's only going to get worse. Besides Dominic Brown and Cole Hamels, not a single key Phillie player is on the bright side of 33. Not Ryan Howard or Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins or Carlos Ruiz or Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. That number will be 34 next year and all but Halladay and Ruiz are locked in for 2014. (The remains of Roy Halladay will be spit-roasted somewhere else, probably on the retirement list. The still-potent Ruiz will be in demand as a free agent.)
There are certainly some assets besides that crew: Darren "Babe" Ruf has mighty power. The team likes Kevin Franzen, who could supplant Howard at first if he shows he can hit. Ben Revere batted.305 and owned centerfield, but absent any walks (OBP merely .338), his value is largely dependent on keeping the batting average up. A third starter behind Lee and Hamels would give them a strong rotation in front of Jonathan Pappelbon, who is nearly the stud as he thinks he is.
Are you impressed? Neither is Washington or Atlanta, or for that matter the Mets. And even a Hall of Famer in the dugout isn't going to change that.
The Phillies yesterday signed interim-manager Ryne Sandberg to a three-year contract. GM Ruben Amaro had been auditioning the Hall of Fame keystoner over the last 34 games and liked what he saw.
The speculation immediately fell upon the Phillies' record, which had rebounded to 18-16 under Sandberg after dropping a string of games and any pretense of a playoff challenge in Charlie Manuel's final days as manager.
No doubt Amaro cared about how the team responded to Sandberg, both in the clubhouse and on the field. If they folded up the tent upon his arrival, Amaro might have balked at a new contract. But, contrary to accepted wisdom that they're generally ungrateful prima donnas, most Major League baseball players have sufficient pride and professionalism to work hard through Game 162.
There are myriad reasons why teams slump and rebound; certainly an injection of new blood at the top might have had something to do with that. A manager creates a culture in the clubhouse and that can infect everything the team does. It's unlikely he can have that kind of impact, though, in the first, say, 20 games, which means most of the Phils' record under Sandberg's skippering is just happenstance. (They won nine of the new commander's 14 games but have gone 9-11 since.) Besides, if novelty helped boost the club, they won't ever derive that benefit again as long as Sandberg is manager.
Sandberg will be tested for real next when this reality strikes: the chickens of two World Series appearances are coming home to roost. Philadelphia has an expensive, aging and largely ineffective roster and it's only going to get worse. Besides Dominic Brown and Cole Hamels, not a single key Phillie player is on the bright side of 33. Not Ryan Howard or Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins or Carlos Ruiz or Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. That number will be 34 next year and all but Halladay and Ruiz are locked in for 2014. (The remains of Roy Halladay will be spit-roasted somewhere else, probably on the retirement list. The still-potent Ruiz will be in demand as a free agent.)
There are certainly some assets besides that crew: Darren "Babe" Ruf has mighty power. The team likes Kevin Franzen, who could supplant Howard at first if he shows he can hit. Ben Revere batted.305 and owned centerfield, but absent any walks (OBP merely .338), his value is largely dependent on keeping the batting average up. A third starter behind Lee and Hamels would give them a strong rotation in front of Jonathan Pappelbon, who is nearly the stud as he thinks he is.
Are you impressed? Neither is Washington or Atlanta, or for that matter the Mets. And even a Hall of Famer in the dugout isn't going to change that.
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