Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Pirates, winners of 94 games and the Wild Card in 2013. The Bucs ended two decades of futility by exceeding expectations this past season. The good people of the Steel City should pop an Iron City Brew to toast their young team's accomplishment. And then prepare for 2014, when PNC's denizens return to earth.
We've seen this before. Think all the way back to 2012, when a young Washington Nationals team swept to the league's best record with 98 wins. Like the Pirates, the Nats were a year ahead of schedule, but breakouts by their promising franchise players (Harper and Strasburg) coincided with unexpected leaps from veterans (Adam LaRoche and Gio Gonzalez).
In 2013, Gonzalez regressed to form (from 21-8, 2.89 to 11-8, 3.36) and LaRoche fell predictably hard (from .271 BA and 33 home runs to .237 BA and 20 HR). In addition, a Washington bullpen that strangled NL hitters in 2012, allowing a 2.85 ERA, lost much of its effectiveness in 2013, allowing 3.57 earned runs per nine, and the runs allowed seemed to come at the most inopportune times.
The result was that the Nats wavered all spring and summer, and needed a late-season burst to claim 86 wins. A similar fate awaits Pittsburgh in 2014 assuming their roster doesn't change dramatically between now and Opening Day.
For one thing, the Pirates this past season outperformed their profile by six wins. That's a good bit of luck filling their sails that is unlikely to blow next season. Here is a list of other 2013 artifacts they can't expect next year:
1. First baseman Gaby Sanchez will reprise his career high .361 OBP.
2. The bullpen will finish third in baseball in fewest runs allowed.
3. Only one starting player will suffer a serious injury.
4. Andrew McCutchen will win the MVP
5. Marlon Byrd will hit .318/.357/.486 in the final 30 games. (He's signed elsewhere.)
6. Starter Jeff Locke and his 1.49 K/BB ratio will hold opponents to a 3.52 ERA.
7. Jason Grilli's magic carpet ride will continue at age 37.
Some unexpected positives will offset what's above, but even if it all evens out and the entire net loss is due to luck, Jolly Roger wins 88 instead of 94 and misses the playoffs.
Now here's the good news: like the Nationals, the Pirates are built for the long run. Washington will bounce back in 2014 as youth continues to be served and become the World Series favorites many picked them for this year. Assuming the normal progression of its young players and intelligent player acquisition, Pittsburgh will be a contender in 2015. Management in Western Pennsylvania and (to a lesser degree) the District of Columbia have the long view in mind. Fans of the two teams would be wise to adopt the same policy.
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