Of Ryne and Reason

Probably the most misunderstood concept among homo sapiens is the difference between correlation and causation. Correlation is when you sit at home and yell "swing!" just before Chris Davis cranks up and smashes a home run. Causation is when Davis extends his arms and blasts one out.

The Phillies yesterday signed interim-manager Ryne Sandberg to a three-year contract. GM Ruben Amaro had been auditioning the Hall of Fame keystoner over the last 34 games and liked what he saw.

The speculation immediately fell upon the Phillies' record, which had rebounded to 18-16 under Sandberg after dropping a string of games and any pretense of a playoff challenge in Charlie Manuel's final days as manager.

No doubt Amaro cared about how the team responded to Sandberg, both in the clubhouse and on the field. If they folded up the tent upon his arrival, Amaro might have balked at a new contract. But, contrary to accepted wisdom that they're generally ungrateful prima donnas, most Major League baseball players have sufficient pride and professionalism to work hard through Game 162.

There are myriad reasons why teams slump and rebound; certainly an injection of new blood at the top might have had something to do with that. A manager creates a culture in the clubhouse and that can infect everything the team does. It's unlikely he can have that kind of impact, though, in the first, say, 20 games, which means most of the Phils' record under Sandberg's skippering is just happenstance. (They won nine of the new commander's 14 games but have gone 9-11 since.) Besides, if novelty helped boost the club, they won't ever derive that benefit again as long as Sandberg is manager.

Sandberg will be tested for real next when this reality strikes: the chickens of two World Series appearances are coming home to roost. Philadelphia has an expensive, aging and largely ineffective roster and it's only going to get worse. Besides Dominic Brown and Cole Hamels, not a single key Phillie player is on the bright side of 33. Not Ryan Howard or Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins or Carlos Ruiz or Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. That number will be 34 next year and all but Halladay and Ruiz are locked in for 2014. (The remains of Roy Halladay will be spit-roasted somewhere else, probably on the retirement list. The still-potent Ruiz will be in demand as a free agent.)

There are certainly some assets besides that crew: Darren "Babe" Ruf has mighty power. The team likes Kevin Franzen, who could supplant Howard at first if he shows he can hit. Ben Revere batted.305 and owned centerfield, but absent any walks (OBP merely .338), his value is largely dependent on keeping the batting average up. A third starter behind Lee and Hamels would give them a strong rotation in front of Jonathan Pappelbon, who is nearly the stud as he thinks he is.

Are you impressed? Neither is Washington or Atlanta, or for that matter the Mets. And even a Hall of Famer in the dugout isn't going to change that.